My thoughts on his $2.17 price target...The guy simply provides his silly NPV figure and divides by a diluted '07 shares outstanding figure of 57 million. However he does not disclose any information about how he derived his NPV (unless I'm missing something) -- ie; probabilities used, etc. I have never read a research report where the analyst does not disclose his own frigging valuation model, which makes sense considering this guys is not an analyst and the document is not a research report. This guy could have pulled the NPV out of his arse for all we know, or could have used an abysmally low probability of success, or a 5% royalty rate, or whatever...we simply don't know because he left out the most important part of his report -- valuation model.
Anyways in his defense, it is silly to try to put forth a quantitative valuation on a company like this. First of all there are too many unknown variables at this time to make the model useful. Second of all, and more importantly, this is a black and white investment opportunity...either the prelim data holds and the stock goes bananas, or this stock goes bankrupt.
DISCLAIMER: NEVER ASSUME INFO ON MESSAGE BOARDS TO BE ACCURATE. ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE. DON'T BUY STOCK BASED ON THIS POST OR ANY OTHER POST. I OWN A LONG POSITION IN THIS STOCK AND THEREFORE I AM BIASED.
