Let's not forget what this is all about:
FWIW I just posted this on RB and thought I'd post it here, since it's easy to lose sight as this stock slumbers.
The big question -- in fact the only question -- for BOCX longs is whether or not our spectacular data will hold up to more rigorous testing. It is the *only* question -- PERIOD. It makes no difference when we commercialize, who our other partners are, etc. If our data can be replicated in "official" trials this one investment will be, as the expression goes, worth a lifetime of work.
The assumption for longs -- myself included -- has been that the data will in fact hold up because Abbott underwent their own blind sample verification process for months. Longs are essentially trusting Abbott's internal verification process, while the nay-sayers are betting against that same process by that same Fortune 50 company. Pretty funny if you think about it.
Clearly there is no guarantee that ABT's blind sample verification process is bulletproof, but I have had extensive conversations with several people at the research center, and am convinced that the process was quite thorough. Remember, these are the peons on the ground who actually tested the encoded samples provided by Abbott -- not senior management or IR or Aurelius.
Moreover, Abbott Diagnostics is not like Microsoft and other companies who go around signing licensing agreements for every little product out there. Abbott Diagnostics has very few collaborations, and all of them are geared toward major unmet needs. In other words -- they don't f**k around with tiny niche products. Go look on their archives for yourself if you don't believe me. We are amongst an elite few at Abbott.
Ok so when the hell do we get to see some conclusive data rather than "preliminary" data? Probably sometime in 2006. Fortunately, though, there are many milestones to achieve along the way that could boost the share price...but nothing will compare to the day we are told that RECAF achieved 90%+ sens/spec in a large official trial sponsored by Abbott. That is the day that this stock enters the stratosphere (10, 20, 30, 40 you name it we got it).
And by the way nothing about this is new. Biotech stocks have always been made or broken on the very DAY that they release "pivotal" data. The other mover & shaker for small biotechs is the day they announce a major partnership, but the stock unfortunately could not take advantage of that event because there was excess supply left over from the SEC crash, and inadequate demand due to the fact that we're on the pinks and thus have next to zero institutional exposure.
DISCLAIMER: NEVER ASSUME INFO ON MESSAGE BOARDS TO BE ACCURATE. ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE. DON'T BUY STOCK BASED ON THIS POST OR ANY OTHER POST. I OWN A LONG POSITION IN THIS STOCK AND THEREFORE I AM BIASED.
