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Seems we go over this every month ugaz not ng will roll frt to fwd month starting 5th trading day of the month at 20% per day. And no ugaz will not automatically go up because of the higher priced fwd month, contango.
VERBTURD .84 I TOLDYA I TOLDYA I TOLDYA but BHI's always ride the dilution stocks into the dirt. The next rs is coming and its coming soon. Every posts on this board should be accompanied by the Warning VERB is a dilution machine holding this stock may result in 99%+ losses.
dude iligence Tuesday, 03/26/19 01:41:30 AM
Re: None 0
Post #
138823
of 154909
The good ole days
dude iligence Tuesday, 03/12/19 02:58:13 PM
Re: None 0
Post #
134959
of 138822
VRRB $14 looks like a good time to take some profit before it tests the 50ma at $10ish. Thank me later
FRIDAY
dude iligence Friday, 03/22/19 10:23:40 AM
Re: dude iligence post# 137717 0
Post #
138197
of 138822
Today is THIRD DAY IN PLAY COLLECT YOUR PAY
Down 12% Monday
Better do your selling before it falls below the second monkey bar
Thank me later or keep believing the Pie N The Sky BS note the little circle area and current price. Then note the little circle to the left in the chart, that is a target price. EPIC!
Quote:
$VRRB - Epic Run Coming! Same chart setup but at much higher Share Price. Golden Cross Followed by a few weeks of Consolidation & then Kaboom! The MA100 crosses over the MA200 & the Stock Explodes Upward!
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EPIC GAP DOWN! $4.95/.33 when its at $3.65 it will be .24, when its at $2.28 it will be .15 rs adjusted, when its at $1.20 it will be .08 rs adjusted. [b]When its at ..796 it will be .053 rs adjusted. Somewhere in those ranges Uncle Rory will swack the L&S with the next RS. Just remember you shares wont go any lower than 1 per account.
Quote:
Do your selling before it falls below the next monkey bar. Thank me later
Quote:
Loads of patience needed with this stock, it's an investment stock and not one for trading.
exactly backwards this is for trading only the l&S will end up BHs
What matters most this time of a yr is the anticipation that Its Gonnna Be A Long Cold Hard Winter. For a few weeks at least
Ng 2.78 gap up breakout Its Gonna Be A Long Cold Frigid Hard Winter
It could go up or go down
Natural Gas Price Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Strengthens Over $2.753, Weakens Under $2.674; Watch for Gap in Either Direction
Trader reaction to $2.674 to $2.753 should determine the direction of the market this week. Look for an upside bias on a sustained move over $2.674 with a main top at $2.884 the first upside target. A sustained move under $2.674 will indicate the presence of sellers with $2.563 the nearest downside target.
James Hyerczyk
James Hyerczyk
11 hours ago (Nov 03, 2019 06:33 AM GMT)
Natural Gas
Natural gas futures surged last week with the move driven by colder-trending weather data. Spot prices remained under pressure late in the week despite forecasts calling for more cold in the Midwest and Northeast over the weekend. However, futures prices seemed to be responsive to the addition of “numerous” heating degree days in the Global Forecast System’s (GFS) midday run on Friday, according to NatGasWeather.
Last week, December natural gas futures settled at $2.714, up $0.255 or +10.37%.
U.S. Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report
The EIA reported Thursday that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 89 billion cubic feet for the week-ending October 25. The build came in on the high side of wide-ranging estimates between 66 Bcf and 94 Bcf, although most projections centered an 85 Bcf injection. The build was also higher than last year’s 49 Bcf injection and the 65 Bcf five-year average.
Total stocks now stand at 3.695 trillion cubic feet, up 559 billion cubic feet from a year ago and 52 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government said.
Short-Term Weather Outlook
According to NatGasWeather for November 1 to November 7, “A cold front with rain and snow will exit the East Coast today, cooling highs into the 40s and 50s. It remains frosty across much of the western and central US with lows of -0s to 30s, although gradually warming this weekend. A reinforcing cold shot will follow across the Midwest and Northeast this weekend, followed by a brief break early next week. However, another frigid cold shot will follow mid-next week over the central and northern US, then spreading into the South and East late in the week with lows of -0s to 30s. Overall, national demand will be high-very high much of the next 7-days.”
Weekly December Natural Gas
Weekly Forecast
NatGasWeather made a comment on Friday about the mid-term outlook saying, “Demand was most notably added November 12-15 as the GFS favors another strong cold shot into the northern U.S.”
However, it also added that the outlook advertised in the European model Friday “just wasn’t as cold as the GFS. It still has three cold shots into the U.S. the next two weeks, but the one “lining up to arrive closer to mid-November “isn’t nearly as impressive with the amount of cold.”
Based on this assessment, NatGasWeather concluded this sets up “big risks over the weekend whether either the GFS” proves to be “much too cold or the European not nearly cold enough. We must expect a gap depending on which is more correct.”
Technically, the main range is formed by the main top at $3.009 from the week-ending May 24 to the main bottom at $2.339 from the week-ending August 9. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone comes in at $2.674 to $2.753. The market closed inside this zone last week.
Trader reaction to $2.674 to $2.753 should determine the direction of the market this week. Look for an upside bias on a sustained move over $2.674 with a main top at $2.884 the first upside target. A sustained move under $2.674 will indicate the presence of sellers with $2.563 the nearest downside target.
Traders should also be prepared for a gap opening in either direction because of the divergence between the U.S. GFS model and the European model.
NG charts 1st day of Nov
Perfect test of 50ma early this morning
Early test of 50ma 6-7am then up
It Gonna Be A Long Cold Hard Frigid Winter
Short positions dec 22k
https://ycharts.com/indicators/nymex_natural_gas_futures_managed_money_short_positions
nice pullback pre market $2.57ish right down to dec 50ma UGAZ sub $15 premarket then bounce and steadly moving higher all day until about 15 mins ago and NG broke out UGAZ jumped from $16 been as $16.84. This is definitely a buy the dip market for NG right now.
Still lots of shorts in NG that could become Full Throttle Burning Saturn V Rocket Fuel if the scary polar vortexes coming rolling out of Canada
Crowded trade this year with lots of eager beavers wanting to ride UGAZ to Da Moon
Trusty Farmers Almanac promising Its Gonna Be A Long Cold Frigid Hard Winter
UGAZ $16.89
UGAZ $15.6 -7% testing Weds low fall below and the next $14.7 Tues close bottom of the second gap.
1030est link to report on post 22087 usually updates within seconds of 1030 est
NG $2.69 Waiting on the report will NG breakout above $2.7 or will NG pullback and test the 200ma and the gap just below.
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-big-decision-time-chase-over-2-695-or-play-for-break-into-2-546-609399
Its not a matter of it being resolved its a matter of reduced gains for UGAZ. UGAZ did not benefit from the gap up when contract rolled. Yes UGAZ went up because NG ran right after that due to colder wx, some of huge short positions covering, lots of eager newbies in NG this year after seeing last years big gains and a relatively low NG price for this time of the year. UGAZ was $16 at NG $2.7 yesterday in Sept UGAZ was $23 when NG was $2.7. The reduced gain in UGAZ was due mainly to Contango and partly due to bleed/decay/rot/skim/whatever you want to call it. Conversly DGAZ was $111 yesterday and $80 in Sept this illustrates how DGAZ benefits from Contango. DGAZ is at a higher level for any given price of NG due to Contango. This does not mean that NG is not going to rally and DGAZ is the play. Right now is Fall going into winter and Farmers say Its Gonna Be A long Cold Frigid Winter.
no no Q not really the case, for any given price of NG DGAZ is at a higher level and UGAZ is at a lower level. Both are tracking Dec and Dec went up. You asked me last week if UGAZ went up then DGAZ would stay flat. I explained
If there is no wx forecast for extended cold the path of least resistance is gap closer. If there is a scary wx forecast NG will break higher leaving a big knarly gap to close at a later date. If I were in charge of the manipulation I would get the gap first or at least test the 50ma below, then bring on the scary F5 Tornado polar vortexes forecasts rolling down out of Canada and the Artic. The direction will likely be determined on a Sunday Monday gapper senario.
NG is left with a chart with big ole knarly gap ups. Not the best way to start a rally in anticipation of a long cold winter but a good way to end a 3 week rally. This looks like a short covering rally.
When NG was $2.68 in Sept UGAZ was $23 now with NG at $2.68 UGAZ is $16.8s. This is due in part to decay/bleed/rot/skim etc but mostly due to Contango. DGAZ was $89 now its $110 with NG at $2.68. The contango gap up on sunday monday morn sparked a rally that has led to some of the large number of shorts covering their positions. The NG continous chart looks like a house of cards with the huge gap ups. How high will this rally go? 200ma on the Dec contract is $2.78 that seems reasonable and tomorrow will be 3rd Day In Play then it will be waiting on the Thursday report.
Sunday night gap up
NG chart has a huge gap up from contango now it will have a gap up to the 200ma.
Will NG continue higher without support or will it repeat 2016 oct/nov roll with a gap n trap then start of selloff.
Earlier today when Investing.c rolled their chart there were a lot of posters thinking NG spiked when it was contract roll. I would say a high percent of people thought this and may be part of the reason for tonights gap up. Same thing happened in 2016. Same thing will happen every month there is contango. Two things ng has going for it right now
Its relatively low priced at $2.5 for this time of the year
There is a large short position
NQ the statement
No Qtr if UGAZ were to Gap up why would DGAZ not move opposite by a similar percentage
NG in the cantango gap Dec chart if taken on its own has resistance around $2.48 get above that it will go to the 50ma.
But then there is the pull to go back down toward the spot price and close the gap. If there is no wx forecast for extended cold the path of least resistance is gap closer. If there is a scary wx forecast NG will break higher leaving a big knarly gap to close at a later date. If I were in charge of the manipulation I would get the gap first or at least test the 50ma below, then bring on the scary F5 Tornado polar vortexes forecasts rolling down out of Canada and the Artic. The direction will likely be determined on a Sunday Monday gapper senario.
NG stuck in the middle of the road which way do you go to cross that maximizes the most NG trader injuries/fatalities.
Cantango is DGAZs best buddy. No brainer contango gap closer underway. Sell dgaz when ng drops down near or closes the gap
Nov NG vol 114.7k
Dec NG vol 130.9k
Stockchart rolls the NG chart at the EOD when the frt month vol decreases below the fwd month that happened today.
NG chart shows a 8% gain .12 gap up. At first glance this looks like a huge breakout above the 50ma for NG. FX empire even wrote did an article to that affect today complete with video review. Yet Nov and Dec both have been struggling/basing below the 50ma for weeks. Today nov/dec were up about 1.5%
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-forecast-natural-gas-markets-finally-break-out-608163
To see how this might play out we go look at similar situations when there was Contango during the chart/contract roll 2016 oct/nov is a good example
Initially there was a slight bump Thursday Friday then Monday gap n trap selloff then that week the gap up was fully closed. Any move down into the Contango gap results in a decrease in the value of UGAZ and increase in DGAZ. NG goes back to where it was before the roll. Ask yourself will NG go back and at least test the 50ma for support. The same 50ma it has been struggling to get up above.
Contango & DGAZ good buddies.
Nov NG vol 114.7k
Dec NG vol 130.9k
Stockchart rolls the NG chart at the EOD when the frt month vol decreases below the fwd month that happened today.
NG chart shows a 8% gain .12 gap up. At first glance this looks like a huge breakout above the 50ma for NG. FX empire even wrote did an article to that affect today complete with video review. Yet Nov and Dec both have been struggling/basing below the 50ma for weeks. Today nov/dec were up about 1.5%
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-forecast-natural-gas-markets-finally-break-out-608163
To see how this might play out we go look at similar situations when there was Contango during the chart/contract roll 2016 oct/nov is a good example
Initially there was a slight bump Thursday Friday then Monday gap n trap selloff then that week the gap up was fully closed. Any move down into the Contango gap results in a decrease in the value of UGAZ and increase in DGAZ. NG goes back to where it was before the roll. Ask yourself will NG go back and at least test the 50ma for support. The same 50ma it has been struggling to get up above.
Contango & DGAZ good buddies.
Nov NG vol 114.7k
Dec NG vol 130.9k
Stockchart rolls the NG chart at the EOD when the frt month vol decreases below the fwd month that happened today.
NG chart shows a 8% gain .12 gap up. At first glance this looks like a huge breakout above the 50ma for NG. FX empire even wrote did an article to that affect today complete with video review. Yet Nov and Dec both have been struggling/basing below the 50ma for weeks. Today nov/dec were up about 1.5%
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-forecast-natural-gas-markets-finally-break-out-608163
To see how this might play out we go look at similar situations when there was Contango during the chart/contract roll 2016 oct/nov is a good example
Initially there was a slight bump Thursday Friday then Monday gap n trap selloff then that week the gap up was fully closed. Any move down into the Contango gap results in a decrease in the value of UGAZ and increase in DGAZ. NG goes back to where it was before the roll. Ask yourself will NG go back and at least test the 50ma for support. The same 50ma it has been struggling to get up above.
87/88 and still .14ish Contango to unwind wx is mixed not the most bullish senario. Im holding DGAZ for now trust the Contango process. Contango is DGAZ friend
DGAZ is sucking the life out of UGAZ DGAZ will be at a higher price for any given price of NG while UGAZ will be at a lower price for any given level of NG when the contango is done. Contango is DGAZs friend it is a No-brainer 10-30% gainer once a month when Contango is big.
Dec 2.43 -.018 nov 2.227 -.005 UGAZ $12.52 -2.87% DGAZ $151+2.66% a reasonable scenario is to meet in the middle at 2.35ish right at the NG 50ma as the contract unwinds. Value is draining out of UGAZ and pumping up DGAZ. When roll is over UGAZ will be $2-$4 cheaper than it was when NG was at $2.35 a couple weeks ago.
Im a NG trader probably the best NG trader you will ever have the op to converse with. The info I pass on is worth $ vs the dribble that you seem to be leaking.
Contango Funk is all over NG. That .20 Contango that started the week off will come out of the value of UGAZ one way or another. If Nov goes up and Dec doesnt UGAZ stays flat minus bleed. If Dec goes down an Nov goes up meet in the middle UGAZ goes down. If both go up then Nov stops trading the NG chart will paint a massive gap up, when the gap closes any amount UGAZ goes down.
Doubledown75 it will be good learning experience for all NG traders to see how the Contango effects the price of your UGAZ shares this week. I will say that in 2015 the chart gapped down hard particularly hard one Sunday/Monday then gapped down the next day then the next for a few days UGAZ lost about 40% from Friday close thru Tues. Chart looked like a bunch of red islands stranding UGAZ holders. No one ever saw the .67 2016 bottom for UGAZ nor would have they believed it in Oct 2015.
$10k invested in UGAZ $12.7 =787 shares UGAZ
Nov NG $2.24
Dec NG $2.44
.20ish Contango
DBS More like fall 2015 into winter 2016. You need to consider the .20 Contango and whats happening this week as that .20 unwinds and comes out of UGAZ. .20 is 10% multiply that 3X and UGAZ could lose 25-30% from where it is now by the time the contract/contango is completely rolled Monday. UGAZ could be considerably cheaper. I laid out how I planned on trading these 3 weeks on 10/11/19,last week NG punched the 50ma and we are now in week two. see bold. Underlined is my plan for when to look at getting back into UGAZ. Im currently in DGAZ $135 from last Thursday.
dude iligence Friday, 10/11/19 04:43:35 PM
Re: kei post# 22125 0
Post #
22126
of 22199
I actually own some UGAZ I bought on the dip this morning. I was stopped out of UGAZ at $14 a few days ago. I owned DGAZ for a few days until this morning when I sold it right before I bought UGAZ. I think NG could move higher next week to the 50ma, then the week after that if the wx forecast stays mild buy some DGAZ for the Contango bleed which will be starting no later than the 24th. When that gets done the following Monday 28th NG will be trading Dec and the weather forecasters will be ready to roll out talk of some scary and very dangerous dreaded Polar Vortex(s) Like giant F5 subzero frozen precip Tornado's from Canada. That would be a good week to roll back into the UGAZ because the Nov/Dec Contango will unwound/done/past. That's the tentative plan for the next couple weeks. If I were in charge of the manipulation that's how I would do it.
__________
The focus is on the wx without considering the contango and how it will affect the ETF/ETNs
Short-Term Weather Outlook
According to NatGasWeather for October 21 to October 27, “What was once a tropical system is now just showers exiting the Northeast. The rest of the southern and eastern US will be quite comfortable the next few days with highs of 60s to 80s. However, a strong weather system and associated cold shot is currently advancing into the northern and central US after bringing stronger demand for heating as lows drop into the 20s & 30s. This system will slowly reach the East Wednesday but weakening upon arrival. A break between cold shots is expected next weekend over the South & East ahead of an even colder system upstream over the Rockies/North Plains. Overall, moderate demand, increasing to high as the week progresses.”
Mid-Term Weather Outlook
The first cold shot is slated for Wednesday (Oct. 23) through next Saturday (Oct. 26), with potentially a brief break Oct. 27-28, according to NatGasWeather.
“This first cold shot will drop lows into the 20s and 30s across the Midwest and Northeast, locally colder, but the more ominous one is expected October 29-November 2 and where lows are more likely to dip into the teens to 30s for widespread stronger-than-normal demand,” the firm said.
“The latest GFS (American Model) also suggested cold would last into November 3-4,” NatGasWeather said. It does, however, see risks for a few Heating Degree Days (HDDs) to be lost for the last week of October, “but with the potential for cold lasting longer into the first several days of November.”
FA forecast came out August 26, imo started the rally that lasted 3 weeks see post 21881.
mike ask kei Im taking a break lol
report was oh well moment NG roll/slowly shrinking contango (.175) unwinding thru next week not the most bullish senario barring a scary cold wx forecast. bought DGAZ $135 using tight stop. Dec NG could sit and Nov come up and UGAZ/DGAZ stay flat minus bleed. Sitting on the sidelines with most of my NG cash during this cycle.
kei Member Level Thursday, 08/29/19 12:23:51 PM
Re: None 0
Post #
21777
of 22173
i'm very new to $UGAZ
but i can smell big money here.. $20 soon
in at $12.50 (i tweeted on that day of purchase)
best of luck to us long!
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You've been trading NG for less than 8 weeks and you going to tell us how it works. OK go ahead I'm going to take a few days off from here come back when the contango is unwound.
Whats going to happen today and over the next 3 days in your opinion?