DBS More like fall 2015 into winter 2016. You need to consider the .20 Contango and whats happening this week as that .20 unwinds and comes out of UGAZ. .20 is 10% multiply that 3X and UGAZ could lose 25-30% from where it is now by the time the contract/contango is completely rolled Monday. UGAZ could be considerably cheaper. I laid out how I planned on trading these 3 weeks on 10/11/19,last week NG punched the 50ma and we are now in week two. see bold. Underlined is my plan for when to look at getting back into UGAZ. Im currently in DGAZ $135 from last Thursday.
dude iligence Friday, 10/11/19 04:43:35 PM
Re: kei post# 22125 0
Post #
22126
of 22199
I actually own some UGAZ I bought on the dip this morning. I was stopped out of UGAZ at $14 a few days ago. I owned DGAZ for a few days until this morning when I sold it right before I bought UGAZ. I think NG could move higher next week to the 50ma, then the week after that if the wx forecast stays mild buy some DGAZ for the Contango bleed which will be starting no later than the 24th. When that gets done the following Monday 28th NG will be trading Dec and the weather forecasters will be ready to roll out talk of some scary and very dangerous dreaded Polar Vortex(s) Like giant F5 subzero frozen precip Tornado's from Canada. That would be a good week to roll back into the UGAZ because the Nov/Dec Contango will unwound/done/past. That's the tentative plan for the next couple weeks. If I were in charge of the manipulation that's how I would do it.
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The focus is on the wx without considering the contango and how it will affect the ETF/ETNs
Short-Term Weather Outlook
According to NatGasWeather for October 21 to October 27, “What was once a tropical system is now just showers exiting the Northeast. The rest of the southern and eastern US will be quite comfortable the next few days with highs of 60s to 80s. However, a strong weather system and associated cold shot is currently advancing into the northern and central US after bringing stronger demand for heating as lows drop into the 20s & 30s. This system will slowly reach the East Wednesday but weakening upon arrival. A break between cold shots is expected next weekend over the South & East ahead of an even colder system upstream over the Rockies/North Plains. Overall, moderate demand, increasing to high as the week progresses.”
Mid-Term Weather Outlook
The first cold shot is slated for Wednesday (Oct. 23) through next Saturday (Oct. 26), with potentially a brief break Oct. 27-28, according to NatGasWeather.
“This first cold shot will drop lows into the 20s and 30s across the Midwest and Northeast, locally colder, but the more ominous one is expected October 29-November 2 and where lows are more likely to dip into the teens to 30s for widespread stronger-than-normal demand,” the firm said.
“The latest GFS (American Model) also suggested cold would last into November 3-4,” NatGasWeather said. It does, however, see risks for a few Heating Degree Days (HDDs) to be lost for the last week of October, “but with the potential for cold lasting longer into the first several days of November.”
