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Monday, October 21, 2019 11:41:58 AM
dude iligence Friday, 10/11/19 04:43:35 PM
Re: kei post# 22125 0
Post #
22126
of 22199
I actually own some UGAZ I bought on the dip this morning. I was stopped out of UGAZ at $14 a few days ago. I owned DGAZ for a few days until this morning when I sold it right before I bought UGAZ. I think NG could move higher next week to the 50ma, then the week after that if the wx forecast stays mild buy some DGAZ for the Contango bleed which will be starting no later than the 24th. When that gets done the following Monday 28th NG will be trading Dec and the weather forecasters will be ready to roll out talk of some scary and very dangerous dreaded Polar Vortex(s) Like giant F5 subzero frozen precip Tornado's from Canada. That would be a good week to roll back into the UGAZ because the Nov/Dec Contango will unwound/done/past. That's the tentative plan for the next couple weeks. If I were in charge of the manipulation that's how I would do it.
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The focus is on the wx without considering the contango and how it will affect the ETF/ETNs
Short-Term Weather Outlook
According to NatGasWeather for October 21 to October 27, “What was once a tropical system is now just showers exiting the Northeast. The rest of the southern and eastern US will be quite comfortable the next few days with highs of 60s to 80s. However, a strong weather system and associated cold shot is currently advancing into the northern and central US after bringing stronger demand for heating as lows drop into the 20s & 30s. This system will slowly reach the East Wednesday but weakening upon arrival. A break between cold shots is expected next weekend over the South & East ahead of an even colder system upstream over the Rockies/North Plains. Overall, moderate demand, increasing to high as the week progresses.”
Mid-Term Weather Outlook
The first cold shot is slated for Wednesday (Oct. 23) through next Saturday (Oct. 26), with potentially a brief break Oct. 27-28, according to NatGasWeather.
“This first cold shot will drop lows into the 20s and 30s across the Midwest and Northeast, locally colder, but the more ominous one is expected October 29-November 2 and where lows are more likely to dip into the teens to 30s for widespread stronger-than-normal demand,” the firm said.
“The latest GFS (American Model) also suggested cold would last into November 3-4,” NatGasWeather said. It does, however, see risks for a few Heating Degree Days (HDDs) to be lost for the last week of October, “but with the potential for cold lasting longer into the first several days of November.”
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