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EHTH should move straight up today
The reason why the afl signed with ehth last year was for the service and rev share. Market got fooled today here...now that its final union plus will quadruple its efforts to have its members use ehth. This was set up a long time ago!
Win win for all. Unions gonna make more money with this model then fees!
todays Union ruling by the supreme court big win for EHTH. AFL-CIO needs money and gets a rev share when AFl-CIO members sign up for Medicare through Union Plus. This ruling today will double the effort by the AFL-CIO to drive their retirees to EHTH.
Same for other services the union partners with who can give them a rev share.
No idea why this is down this week. Big upset in NY primary last night with a Universal Healthcare liberal winning...Universal Healthcare means even more private insurance sales.....universal care usually leaves out many drugs, home health care, private hospital rooms, and many other things that private insurers sell. In Canada, Bluecross is a major private insurer for businesses and individuals as people buy what the Universal system doesn't cover.
The health insurers are moving higher today because of it...in universal healthcare the majority of things are covered, but it leaves certain holes. Those holes are filled with relatively inexpensive drug plans and hospital plans for sale and because they are cheap sales are massive. Its like $60 per month for a drug plan in Canada and you can add in private hospital for another 20 or 30 bucks. In Universal Care, you'd have 320M Americans buying private coverage to fill in holes....
golden cross to occur Monday 6/25
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EHTH
watch next few weeks look at this chart golden cross Monday and largest volume in company history yesterday.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EHTH
covering/buying today set up well largest volume in company history today
and this is just for Medicare!
nevermind their Individual market, small biz market, and short term medical market
took 400M shares to move this 100% earlier this year in a day. this run seems different, moving up on much less volume....
$70M market cap at .04. My guess is market now thinking much higher than $70M. Hopefully the big guys thinking $250M+
nice I can't believe ehth @ 2x revenue today...3x revenue is PPS 35 here
EHTH set to be GoodRX of Medicare
already has optimized drug portal, just needs and app and discount card
https://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=75543479&symbol=NASDAQ%3AEHTH
This is why 40+ here now or 750m cap. Ehth optimizes medicare drug cost aleady!
Who knew shopping for lower costs paid so well.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/20/goodrx-acquisition-talks-could-fetch-3-billion.html
Gonna go straight up here on news
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/making-sense/column-these-9-new-medicare-advantage-benefits-are-a-big-deal-heres-why
Was me today....
EHTH into the 30s in July IMO
Buying 30 and 35 calls big discovery going on.
Looks like American farmers about to have a new crop to plan all across the SE USA as it will be legal to do so by July 4th. Hemp seems like it applies better to 75 products in existence. Paper is the one that got me, 4x to 10x the paper produced from hemp her acre then from trees wtF?
https://ministryofhemp.com/blog/hemp-products-list/
I'm here for the obvious special interest and political money that is obviously pouring into HEMP. Anyone who has sold has lost. Follow the money.
My research shows that these guys are set up in North Carolina right in the middle where all of the hemp will be grown in the Southeast United States and these guys have the only CBD processing plant in North America
HEMP getting legalized, all other marijuana not. This will be the clear winner in the space. 20-1 win in Committee...
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/bill-to-legalize-hemp-poised-to-advance-in-key-senate-committee/
bala what is the all time high here? whatever it is it will now double that all time high
Nice! Hoping for 24 this week!
Thanks for the reports.
We have to get value numbers from somewhere. Think you can get them? Have to know what chanbond wants...
my guess is if we learn how chanbond had its patents valued it comes in at around $10B. I know for sure they will talk today about the methodology of how they obtained a value, but not sure if they will say the actual value they came up with. Zomby will know!
I cannot believe this billions here and this had to happen...so sad
I'm adding 1M and wish I could of had .02 funds clear tomorrow
the valuation meeting starts at 2!
means its going to trial, 13 cable companies asked for a delay in trial. big win for UOIP as now damages and money will be publicly talked about
how are your calls
$150 Price Target
Medicare Outlook EHTH. Even put a 10% constraint on all if you want...Long Term riser here
2018 185M Gross 50M Net 10M 25% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2019 227M Gross 70M Net 30M 20% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2020 277M Gross 95M Net 55M 20% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2021 313M Gross 115M Net 85M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2022 353M Gross 150M Net 115M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2023 398M Gross 175M Net 145M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2024 449M Gross 205M Net 170M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2025 507M Gross 240M Net 205M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
19M O/S Net 205M 15PE $3B Value
Valuation docs at play today and oral over stay or no stay.
Only idiots sell for under 40
$40 here we come?
I listened to the conference this week. I still can't find analyst coverage of the FMV model at EHTH which was adopted by CMS in 2015. The majority of EHTH sales has essentially a COLA on it. EHTH can fail at its 20% Medicare growth rate and still get 20%. The numbers are massive. For example, Part C sales just had a 5.8% commission increase for 2019 and a 2.7% increase for Part D announced by CMS. I can't think of anything bigger that drives profits in Medicare. On top of all of this, the Part C and D they sold in the past that pays in 2019 and beyond will also get the increase. So all of a sudden the $272M in receivables they have goes up.
Medicare is a $100M+ profit generator for EHTH and there really is no way that can't happen. I can't even find EHTH itself talking about the commission expansion in Part C and D. C and D are about 75% of their sales, and the commission EHTH gets paid each year on them is set to compound. Notes below:
From someone in the Medicare business like myself this is how I summarize what they say publicly combined with public policy on Medicare. They have essentially a 3% built in margin expansion compounding annually as commission rates on most Medicare products rise, combined with company initiatives to increase enrollment and lower cost.
EHTH 20% CAGR on Medicare enrollments as new-to-Medicare recipients are more computer savy embracing online tech/enrollment/search/help in tandem with new Medicare pool partnerships like Union Plus and increased marketing.
Total Medicare Commission payable to EHTH rising by 3% Annually due to CMS allowing Annual increases based on Fair Market Value Model pegged mainly to cost of care rises for all Medicare Advantage and Prescription Drug Sales. Bottom line is as cost of care goes up the enrollments are worth more and therefore pay more commission.
Cost cutting in enrollments from company initiatives as well as EHTH being busier first 3 quarters of the year where idle workers are now busier enrolling Medicare customers due to increased business adds to margins. In Medicare, lot of idle time and low margin first 9 months, but, as the first 9 months get busier as overall strategy yields more enrollments at that time, margin increases quickly.
MEDICARE 2018 $180M rev $50M gross profit 27% margin stated by EHTH, 2019E $210M $70M profit 34% margin , 2020E $250M $95M 38% margin profit 2021 E $300M $115M profit 40% margin
Here is the white paper explaining when it all changed in 2015 for Part C and D
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.healthcare-conferences.com/pdf/CMS2015Broker.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwis4MLV8q7bAhWwGDQIHeoPB9sQFjAFegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw1da6g-_Uy-3WPFslkjL-4w
And here is C and D rates note what happened in 2015 and since then. Med adv commission is fmv which is just a fancy term for as the cost of care goes up the med adv plans are more valuable and thus pay more commission.
http://www.psmbrokerage.com/blog/medicare-advantage-commissions-increased-for-2018
Someone has got to get talking to them about this, and how they add it into their receivables, how it increases cashflow, and how it fits into their modeling of value. They say Part C is about an $800 lifetime value and D is about $250 lifetime value. Does this include the FMV rate increases?
For 2019, of the $272M receivable, they say 30% will pay in that year so about $75M. Of that $75M 75% is Part C and Part D sales. So, that $75M just got about $4M added to it in a flash last week when CMS raised 2019.
https://www.psmbrokerage.com/blog/medicare-advantage-contract-year-2019-agent-and-broker-compensation-rate-adjustments
My firm belief is that price targets are a good 75% too low because this is being missed.....how is EHTH not pegged to $35 to $40 based on their largest sales having a COLA on it?
Medicare for all enormous, $500 here seriously LOL
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/medicare-for-all-public-option-nancy-pelosi-house-majority/2018/06/07/id/864844/
Medicare $50 Per share here alone
20% CAGR on Medicare enrollments as new-to-Medicare recipients are more computer savy embracing online tech/enrollment/search/help in tandem with new Medicare pool partnerships and increased marketing.
Total Medicare Commission payable to EHTH rising by 3% Annually due to CMS allowing Annual increases based on Fair Market Value pegged mainly to cost of care rises for all Medicare Advantage and Prescription Drug Sales. Bottom line is as cost of care goes up the enrollments are worth more and therefore pay more commission.
Cost cutting in enrollments from company initiatives as well as EHTH being busier first 3 quarters of the year where idle workers are now busier enrolling Medicare customers due to increased business adds to margins.
2018 $180M $50M profit 27% margin, 2019 $210M $70M profit 34% margin , 2020 $250M $95M 38% margin profit 20201 $300M $115M profit 40% margin
Should be 31 to 36 eyeing 40
not much left under 25 eyeing HOY