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almost published at S.A. final proofing now preview below...
eHealth (EHTH)-As Medicare Commissions Grow, So Does The Company
Jul. 6, 2018 10:17 AM ET
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About: eHealth, Inc. (EHTH)
Mark Taylor
Mark Taylor
Growth, medium-term horizon
Summary
•The company is primarily a Medicare Broker Now.
•Profit margins are increasing rapidly.
•Medicare commission expansion could be as much as 50% over the next decade.
E-health (EHTH) is set to double soon and quadruple long term as profitability is back. Small caps are on fire, especially ones like EHTH who have little to no debt.
The company known for helping Individuals and Small Businesses find health plans is now mainly a Medicare Broker, helping seniors and disabled people enroll into various Medicare Plans. Its been this way for a few years now. The thing is, margins have been low and the company has struggled to make profits, but boy, how that is changing.
Commission Rates Rising
Since 2015 the government approved changes pegged to start in 2016 in the way it sets the commission rate that insurers are allowed to pay for Medicare Advantage C and Prescription Drug Plan D renewals. Since then the renewal rates are allowed to float with what they call fair market value, which is fancy for we will allow the insurers to pay you in relation to the total value of the transaction. No matter when you make the sale, 2018 for example, if the rates are higher in 2019 or 2020, then eHealth can get paid more in those renewal years if the plan is still on the books and the insurer honors the government allowed increase. As we all know, the cost of care keeps rising, and thus, the total value of the transaction also keeps rising. Initial payments, which are usually a higher commission, are also set by fair market value. The bottom line is, the government keeps increasing what it pays insurers to administer Part C and Part D, and thus what the insurers are allowed to pay brokers like EHTH keeps rising.
Part C allowable commission is up about 20% since 2015, and Part D allowable commission is up by about 30%. On May 25th 2018, CMS announced the 2019 C and D allowable rates which are up by almost 6% year-over-year in some cases. The insurers have historically paid the maximum allowable, though they are not required too. It's likely that will continue as insurers don't want brokers to leave them behind if they don't pay the maximum allowable.
Table Below Source: Precision Senior Marketing
C and D Allowable Commissions
Table Below Source: CMS
C and D 2019
Margins Set To Rise
Here's the thing, gross margin at EHTH is about 27% on Medicare today. That is small. But, the government has the per capita cost of Medicare care rising by about 4.6% annually for the next 10 year stretch. Simple math says that therefore Medicare C and D commission rates will also rise by about 4.6% annually. That is a whopping 50% rate increase over that timeframe. As anyone with any financial sense knows, if you are doing the same work for a sale, but that sale simply pays you more in the future, your margins will increase. Will EHTH's gross margin on Medicare go from 27% today to 77%? No, some of their Medicare sales, like Medigap plans known as Medicare Supplements (about 25% of their overall Medicare revenue), are not seeing commission rate increases. But, EHTH is also actively working to lower its cost of Medicare sales. They have a target of 40% to 50% margin soon.
The kicker, and this is where you have to pay attention, is that they aim for 40% to 50% gross margin on their own initiatives and are not relying on Commission expansion. They have a deal with Union Plus to help enroll union retirees at a very low cost to them to spike their margins. Union Plus gets a small rev share. In light of the recent Supreme Court ruling, the union bosses have been planning and deploying revenue sharing agreements for services used by union members to raise cash. The ruling heightens the need for Union Plus to push even more of its retirees to EHTH so they can get more revenue sharing. In other words, Wednesday was a win for EHTH and all of the other services that union members use because Union Plus will push their members to these services to get revenue out of it. This is probably a better a business model for the unions going forward to raise cash, but that is another story.
Big Profits Ahead
Using math and the stated Medicare CAGR that EHTH has for its enrollments of 20% through 2020 (I figure it'll slow some after that), the stated 40%+ margin by 2020 (highlighted below) on its own initiatives, and tacking on the 4.6% commission expansion for C and D sales (around 3% for their total Medicare book when you figure their Medicare Supplements sales) you come up with 50% margins within 5 years. You also come up with gross profits of near $300M by 2025 (highlighted below).
Estimates Below Source: My calculations using company 2018 data as baseline
Click to enlargeestimates
It's possible the enrollment growth or commission changes in the future could be less than opined here. There is plenty of regulation out there on Medicare C and D plans and CMS updates it's thinking annually on them. One large item that make occur is that Medicare B drugs may move into Medicare D as President Trump has tasked Health Secretary Alex Azar to do. This would surely raise the cost of Part D and alter the part D program.
With a 19M fully diluted share count, and gross profits possibly over $100M within 2 years, you have to think of $1B valuation or $50 price targets. In fact, I believe their Medicare portal to be worth substantially more than that because as a Medicare Broker myself, I can tell you their online platform is the easiest to use to help my customers find a plan. All they need to do is make their drug portal an app, and tack on an EHTH discount drug card every time they make a sale, and you easily blow away GoodRx and their $3B valuation.
More Than Just Medicare
This is just Medicare folks! I have no idea what they are going to do with their other segments. I've proffered they should dominate the subsidized market as 7M people use Healthcare.gov and pay next to nothing for a health plan. EHTH is set up to enroll folks with a subsidy for individual health. They should do more.
Since many of those plans purchased with a subsidy typically have a high deductible, EHTH should offer at the point of sale a Gap plan that fills in part of that deductible. Some Gap plans, for example, will pay up to 50% of your deductible for medical testing or a hospital stay. If you have a $4000 deductible, then the Gap plan would pay 50% or $2000 toward that deductible each year for a cost of around $40 per month. Make it guaranteed issue so there are no medical questions, and they can double their commission. Ever buy an airline ticket and you have the option to toggle on a Trip Cancellation plan? Healthcare.gov will never be able to sell those folks a Gap plan that they desperately need. I believe their subsidized market could be easily another $500M to $1B in value if they invest into it once they get cashflow rolling in Medicare, which, they are cashflow positive right about now.
The stock recently had a Golden Cross (50MA moved over the 200MA). Its a bullish sign. Look for a break of $28, which is the high of the past 12 months, for more bullishness. Don't be afraid of Option Calls if you are not into playing the small cap space with big money. Tip-toe in with some $25 or $30 calls heading into 2019.
Disclosure: I am/we are long EHTH.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
sent it to all of the analysts and the CEO..the CEO sent me a LinkedIn Request..LOL. S.A. got back to me...I have to put some links in and such....if I have time I may update it this week....well let you guys know if it gets published.
hoping to get published in S.A.
EHTH-A New Era
hoping to get published on Seeking Alpha...
Summary
•Primarily a Medicare Broker Now.
•Record Medicare Enrollment.
•Medicare Commissions Growing Rapidly.
The company known for helping Individuals and Small Businesses find health plans is now mainly a Medicare Broker, helping seniors and disabled people enroll into various Medicare Plans. Its been this way for a few years now. The thing is, margins have been low and the company has struggled to make profits, but boy, how that is changing.
In 2015 the government changed the way it sets the commission rate that insurers are allowed to pay for Medicare C and Medicare D plans. Since then the rates are set by what they call Fair Market Value, which is fancy for we will allow the insurers to pay you in relation to the total value of the transaction. As we all know, the cost of care keeps rising, and thus, the total value of the transaction also keeps rising. The bottom line is, the government keeps increasing what it pays insurers to administer Part C and Part D, and thus what the insurers are allowed to pay brokers like EHTH keeps rising.
Part C allowable commission is up about 20% since 2015, and Part D allowable commission is up by about 30%. The insurers have historically paid the maximum allowable, though they are not required too. It's likely that will continue as insurers don't want brokers to leave them behind if they don't pay the maximum allowable.
Here's the thing, gross margin at EHTH is about 27% on Medicare today. That is small. But, the government has the cost of care rising by about 5.5% annually through 2026. Simple math says that therefore Medicare C and D commission rates will also rise by about 5.5% annually. That is a whopping 50% rate increase over the next 8 years. As anyone with any financial sense knows, if you are doing the same work for a sale, but that sale simply pays you more in the future, your margins will increase. Will EHTH's gross margin on Medicare go from 27% today to 77% in the next 8 years? No, because they will have some cost rises. But, EHTH is also actively working to lower its cost of Medicare sales. They have a target of 40% to 50% margin soon.
The kicker, and this is where you have to pay attention, is that they aim for 40% to 50% gross margin on their own initiatives and are not relying on Commission expansion. They have a deal with Union Plus to help enroll union retirees at a very low cost to them to spike their margins. Union Plus gets a small rev share. In light of this weeks Supreme Court ruling, the union bosses have been planning and deploying revenue sharing agreements for services used by union members to raise cash. The Wednesday ruling heightens the need for Union Plus to push even more of its retirees to EHTH so they can get more revenue sharing. In other words, Wednesday was a win for EHTH and all of the other services that union members use because Union Plus will push their members to these services to get revenue out of it. This is probably a better a business model for the unions going forward to raise cash, but that is another story.
Using math and the stated Medicare CAGR that EHTH has for its enrollments of 20% for the next few years, and tacking on the 5.5% commission expansion for C and D sales (about 75% of their total revenue) you come up with 40% margins within 2 years, 50% margins within 4, and 60% margins within 6. You also come up with gross profits of $50M in 2018, $70M in 2019, and over $100M in 2020. By 2026 you come up with gross profits near $300M.
With a 19M fulling diluted share count, and gross profits of $100M within 2 years, you have to think of $1B valuation or $50 price targets. In fact, I believe their Medicare portal to be worth substantially more than that because as a Medicare Broker myself, I can tell you their online platform is the easiest to use to help my customers find a plan. All they need to do is make their drug portal an app, and tack on an EHTH discount drug card every time they make a sale, and you easily blow away GoodRx and their $3B valuation.
This is just Medicare folks! I have no idea what they are going to do with their other segments. I've proffered they should dominate the subsidized market as 7M people use Healthcare.gov and pay next to nothing for a health plan. EHTH is set up to enroll folks with a subsidy for individual health. They should do more. Since many of those plans purchased with a subsidy typically have a high deductible, EHTH should offer at the point of sale a Gap plan that fills in part of that deductible. Make it guaranteed issue so there are no medical questions, and they can double their commission. Ever buy an airline ticket and you have the option to toggle on a Trip Cancellation plan? Healthcare.gov will never be able to sell those folks a Gap plan that they desperately need. I believe their subsidized market could be easily another $500M to $1B in value if they invest into it once they get cashflow rolling in Medicare, which, they are cashflow positive right about now and Launch Control is here.
Disclosure: I am/we are long EHTH.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Medicare Outlook EHTH. Even put a 10% constraint on all if you want...Long Term riser here
2018 185M Gross 50M Net 10M 25% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2019 227M Gross 70M Net 30M 20% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2020 277M Gross 95M Net 55M 20% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2021 313M Gross 115M Net 85M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2022 353M Gross 150M Net 115M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2023 398M Gross 175M Net 145M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2024 449M Gross 205M Net 170M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2025 507M Gross 240M Net 205M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
19M O/S Net 205M 15PE $3B Value
EHTH-A New Era
hoping to get published on Seeking Alpha...
Summary
•Primarily a Medicare Broker Now.
•Record Medicare Enrollment.
•Medicare Commissions Growing Rapidly.
The company known for helping Individuals and Small Businesses find health plans is now mainly a Medicare Broker, helping seniors and disabled people enroll into various Medicare Plans. Its been this way for a few years now. The thing is, margins have been low and the company has struggled to make profits, but boy, how that is changing.
In 2015 the government changed the way it sets the commission rate that insurers are allowed to pay for Medicare C and Medicare D plans. Since then the rates are set by what they call Fair Market Value, which is fancy for we will allow the insurers to pay you in relation to the total value of the transaction. As we all know, the cost of care keeps rising, and thus, the total value of the transaction also keeps rising. The bottom line is, the government keeps increasing what it pays insurers to administer Part C and Part D, and thus what the insurers are allowed to pay brokers like EHTH keeps rising.
Part C allowable commission is up about 20% since 2015, and Part D allowable commission is up by about 30%. The insurers have historically paid the maximum allowable, though they are not required too. It's likely that will continue as insurers don't want brokers to leave them behind if they don't pay the maximum allowable.
Here's the thing, gross margin at EHTH is about 27% on Medicare today. That is small. But, the government has the cost of care rising by about 5.5% annually through 2026. Simple math says that therefore Medicare C and D commission rates will also rise by about 5.5% annually. That is a whopping 50% rate increase over the next 8 years. As anyone with any financial sense knows, if you are doing the same work for a sale, but that sale simply pays you more in the future, your margins will increase. Will EHTH's gross margin on Medicare go from 27% today to 77% in the next 8 years? No, because they will have some cost rises. But, EHTH is also actively working to lower its cost of Medicare sales. They have a target of 40% to 50% margin soon.
The kicker, and this is where you have to pay attention, is that they aim for 40% to 50% gross margin on their own initiatives and are not relying on Commission expansion. They have a deal with Union Plus to help enroll union retirees at a very low cost to them to spike their margins. Union Plus gets a small rev share. In light of this weeks Supreme Court ruling, the union bosses have been planning and deploying revenue sharing agreements for services used by union members to raise cash. The Wednesday ruling heightens the need for Union Plus to push even more of its retirees to EHTH so they can get more revenue sharing. In other words, Wednesday was a win for EHTH and all of the other services that union members use because Union Plus will push their members to these services to get revenue out of it. This is probably a better a business model for the unions going forward to raise cash, but that is another story.
Using math and the stated Medicare CAGR that EHTH has for its enrollments of 20% for the next few years, and tacking on the 5.5% commission expansion for C and D sales (about 75% of their total revenue) you come up with 40% margins within 2 years, 50% margins within 4, and 60% margins within 6. You also come up with gross profits of $50M in 2018, $70M in 2019, and over $100M in 2020. By 2026 you come up with gross profits near $300M.
With a 19M fulling diluted share count, and gross profits of $100M within 2 years, you have to think of $1B valuation or $50 price targets. In fact, I believe their Medicare portal to be worth substantially more than that because as a Medicare Broker myself, I can tell you their online platform is the easiest to use to help my customers find a plan. All they need to do is make their drug portal an app, and tack on an EHTH discount drug card every time they make a sale, and you easily blow away GoodRx and their $3B valuation.
This is just Medicare folks! I have no idea what they are going to do with their other segments. I've proffered they should dominate the subsidized market as 7M people use Healthcare.gov and pay next to nothing for a health plan. EHTH is set up to enroll folks with a subsidy for individual health. They should do more. Since many of those plans purchased with a subsidy typically have a high deductible, EHTH should offer at the point of sale a Gap plan that fills in part of that deductible. Make it guaranteed issue so there are no medical questions, and they can double their commission. Ever buy an airline ticket and you have the option to toggle on a Trip Cancellation plan? Healthcare.gov will never be able to sell those folks a Gap plan that they desperately need. I believe their subsidized market could be easily another $500M to $1B in value if they invest into it once they get cashflow rolling in Medicare, which, they are cashflow positive right about now and Launch Control is here.
Disclosure: I am/we are long EHTH.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Medicare Outlook EHTH. Even put a 10% constraint on all if you want...Long Term riser here
2018 185M Gross 50M Net 10M 25% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2019 227M Gross 70M Net 30M 20% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2020 277M Gross 95M Net 55M 20% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2021 313M Gross 115M Net 85M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2022 353M Gross 150M Net 115M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2023 398M Gross 175M Net 145M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2024 449M Gross 205M Net 170M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2025 507M Gross 240M Net 205M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
19M O/S Net 205M 15PE $3B Value
Hiiq straight up as ehth should. Blame management for not informing of how ehth shares rev with unions and this is how unions raise cash lost by losing fees. Union plus gonna send all retirees to ehth. Union plus will send all union members to all of its partners for rev share
EHTH should move straight up today
The reason why the afl signed with ehth last year was for the service and rev share. Market got fooled today here...now that its final union plus will quadruple its efforts to have its members use ehth. This was set up a long time ago!
Win win for all. Unions gonna make more money with this model then fees!
todays Union ruling by the supreme court big win for EHTH. AFL-CIO needs money and gets a rev share when AFl-CIO members sign up for Medicare through Union Plus. This ruling today will double the effort by the AFL-CIO to drive their retirees to EHTH.
Same for other services the union partners with who can give them a rev share.
No idea why this is down this week. Big upset in NY primary last night with a Universal Healthcare liberal winning...Universal Healthcare means even more private insurance sales.....universal care usually leaves out many drugs, home health care, private hospital rooms, and many other things that private insurers sell. In Canada, Bluecross is a major private insurer for businesses and individuals as people buy what the Universal system doesn't cover.
The health insurers are moving higher today because of it...in universal healthcare the majority of things are covered, but it leaves certain holes. Those holes are filled with relatively inexpensive drug plans and hospital plans for sale and because they are cheap sales are massive. Its like $60 per month for a drug plan in Canada and you can add in private hospital for another 20 or 30 bucks. In Universal Care, you'd have 320M Americans buying private coverage to fill in holes....
golden cross to occur Monday 6/25
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EHTH
watch next few weeks look at this chart golden cross Monday and largest volume in company history yesterday.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EHTH
covering/buying today set up well largest volume in company history today
and this is just for Medicare!
nevermind their Individual market, small biz market, and short term medical market
took 400M shares to move this 100% earlier this year in a day. this run seems different, moving up on much less volume....
$70M market cap at .04. My guess is market now thinking much higher than $70M. Hopefully the big guys thinking $250M+
nice I can't believe ehth @ 2x revenue today...3x revenue is PPS 35 here
EHTH set to be GoodRX of Medicare
already has optimized drug portal, just needs and app and discount card
https://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=75543479&symbol=NASDAQ%3AEHTH
This is why 40+ here now or 750m cap. Ehth optimizes medicare drug cost aleady!
Who knew shopping for lower costs paid so well.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/20/goodrx-acquisition-talks-could-fetch-3-billion.html
Gonna go straight up here on news
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/making-sense/column-these-9-new-medicare-advantage-benefits-are-a-big-deal-heres-why
Was me today....
EHTH into the 30s in July IMO
Buying 30 and 35 calls big discovery going on.
Looks like American farmers about to have a new crop to plan all across the SE USA as it will be legal to do so by July 4th. Hemp seems like it applies better to 75 products in existence. Paper is the one that got me, 4x to 10x the paper produced from hemp her acre then from trees wtF?
https://ministryofhemp.com/blog/hemp-products-list/
I'm here for the obvious special interest and political money that is obviously pouring into HEMP. Anyone who has sold has lost. Follow the money.
My research shows that these guys are set up in North Carolina right in the middle where all of the hemp will be grown in the Southeast United States and these guys have the only CBD processing plant in North America
HEMP getting legalized, all other marijuana not. This will be the clear winner in the space. 20-1 win in Committee...
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/bill-to-legalize-hemp-poised-to-advance-in-key-senate-committee/
bala what is the all time high here? whatever it is it will now double that all time high
Nice! Hoping for 24 this week!
Thanks for the reports.
We have to get value numbers from somewhere. Think you can get them? Have to know what chanbond wants...
my guess is if we learn how chanbond had its patents valued it comes in at around $10B. I know for sure they will talk today about the methodology of how they obtained a value, but not sure if they will say the actual value they came up with. Zomby will know!
I cannot believe this billions here and this had to happen...so sad
I'm adding 1M and wish I could of had .02 funds clear tomorrow
the valuation meeting starts at 2!
means its going to trial, 13 cable companies asked for a delay in trial. big win for UOIP as now damages and money will be publicly talked about
how are your calls
$150 Price Target
Medicare Outlook EHTH. Even put a 10% constraint on all if you want...Long Term riser here
2018 185M Gross 50M Net 10M 25% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2019 227M Gross 70M Net 30M 20% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2020 277M Gross 95M Net 55M 20% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2021 313M Gross 115M Net 85M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2022 353M Gross 150M Net 115M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2023 398M Gross 175M Net 145M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2024 449M Gross 205M Net 170M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
2025 507M Gross 240M Net 205M 10% enrollment growth 3% commission rise
19M O/S Net 205M 15PE $3B Value
Valuation docs at play today and oral over stay or no stay.
Only idiots sell for under 40
$40 here we come?
I listened to the conference this week. I still can't find analyst coverage of the FMV model at EHTH which was adopted by CMS in 2015. The majority of EHTH sales has essentially a COLA on it. EHTH can fail at its 20% Medicare growth rate and still get 20%. The numbers are massive. For example, Part C sales just had a 5.8% commission increase for 2019 and a 2.7% increase for Part D announced by CMS. I can't think of anything bigger that drives profits in Medicare. On top of all of this, the Part C and D they sold in the past that pays in 2019 and beyond will also get the increase. So all of a sudden the $272M in receivables they have goes up.
Medicare is a $100M+ profit generator for EHTH and there really is no way that can't happen. I can't even find EHTH itself talking about the commission expansion in Part C and D. C and D are about 75% of their sales, and the commission EHTH gets paid each year on them is set to compound. Notes below:
From someone in the Medicare business like myself this is how I summarize what they say publicly combined with public policy on Medicare. They have essentially a 3% built in margin expansion compounding annually as commission rates on most Medicare products rise, combined with company initiatives to increase enrollment and lower cost.
EHTH 20% CAGR on Medicare enrollments as new-to-Medicare recipients are more computer savy embracing online tech/enrollment/search/help in tandem with new Medicare pool partnerships like Union Plus and increased marketing.
Total Medicare Commission payable to EHTH rising by 3% Annually due to CMS allowing Annual increases based on Fair Market Value Model pegged mainly to cost of care rises for all Medicare Advantage and Prescription Drug Sales. Bottom line is as cost of care goes up the enrollments are worth more and therefore pay more commission.
Cost cutting in enrollments from company initiatives as well as EHTH being busier first 3 quarters of the year where idle workers are now busier enrolling Medicare customers due to increased business adds to margins. In Medicare, lot of idle time and low margin first 9 months, but, as the first 9 months get busier as overall strategy yields more enrollments at that time, margin increases quickly.
MEDICARE 2018 $180M rev $50M gross profit 27% margin stated by EHTH, 2019E $210M $70M profit 34% margin , 2020E $250M $95M 38% margin profit 2021 E $300M $115M profit 40% margin
Here is the white paper explaining when it all changed in 2015 for Part C and D
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.healthcare-conferences.com/pdf/CMS2015Broker.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwis4MLV8q7bAhWwGDQIHeoPB9sQFjAFegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw1da6g-_Uy-3WPFslkjL-4w
And here is C and D rates note what happened in 2015 and since then. Med adv commission is fmv which is just a fancy term for as the cost of care goes up the med adv plans are more valuable and thus pay more commission.
http://www.psmbrokerage.com/blog/medicare-advantage-commissions-increased-for-2018
Someone has got to get talking to them about this, and how they add it into their receivables, how it increases cashflow, and how it fits into their modeling of value. They say Part C is about an $800 lifetime value and D is about $250 lifetime value. Does this include the FMV rate increases?
For 2019, of the $272M receivable, they say 30% will pay in that year so about $75M. Of that $75M 75% is Part C and Part D sales. So, that $75M just got about $4M added to it in a flash last week when CMS raised 2019.
https://www.psmbrokerage.com/blog/medicare-advantage-contract-year-2019-agent-and-broker-compensation-rate-adjustments
My firm belief is that price targets are a good 75% too low because this is being missed.....how is EHTH not pegged to $35 to $40 based on their largest sales having a COLA on it?