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If your speaking of a P/E ratio, I think the general range is 10 to 30 times earnings, based on the potential to grow. I believe that growth could be great as both new applications are found for existing drugs, and new drugs are approved, so I'd put it closer to 30 times earnings.
Gary
As this advances toward recognition for curing pnemonia, the question in my mind is, how long will it take to achieve a billion dollar market cap. I believe if German results are released that are as positive as what we've seen from Israel, it could happen within a matter of day after those results are released. Likewise if the Israeli trial is extended to dozens, or hundreds, a week or so after treatment lets see if we get a report.
The company's next earnings report is due May 11th according to Fidelity, of course this could be delayed by coronavirus related authorized delays. I believe by then we'll not only know with some certainty how effective the drug is in pnemonia, I also think we'll get news on how much dilution has occured, as well as what's planned. I believe it will be awhile before our O/S exceeds 25 million shares, which makes a billion dollar market cap $40 a share, we currently might be under 20 million shares, or $50 for a billion market cap.
I believe we'll see more data by the end of next week.
Gary
That would be great for Europe, and anyone who'd follow their action. I suspect the U.S. would take more convincing. Trump is enough of a wild card that he might be able to order the FDA to do it in spite of all their normal protocols. The drug he's currently pushing has lots of risks that patients need to consider before trying it. I believe it may have minor benefits for some, but their are some who could actually die of it's side effects if they react badly to it, rather than the coronavirus.
I think we should be clear, our drug isn't specifically for coronavirus, but it may generally work in all forms of pneumonia.
I've been very open to discussing my treatment for leukemia. A few months ago I went to the funeral of a friend, but like so many people he was private about being ill. I believe he actually had leukemia longer than I did, and was in remission, as I am, but in a weakened state, he was killed by pneumonia. I had been hospitalized by pneumonia a few times after receiving stem cells, I also had shingles which put me in the hospital as well, but I've been fortunate, at least thus far. My point is that pneumonia kills many people, not what caused the pneumonia. Common flu kills tens to hundreds of thousands worldwide annually, it's only about .1% of those who get it, but most of the deaths are caused by pneumonia. If we can assist in the cure of pneumonia in most patients we can save a lot of lives annually with, or without coronavirus.
Gary
Jimmy,
One of the problems with our drug approval process is that no matter how good the Phase 3 data looks, between the company having to prepare a BLA or NDA that's very complex, and the FDA taking 6 months to evaluate it, the better part of a year or more is spent in the process. If the FDA wished, they could do otherwise, look at the data themselves, cut the red tape and approve the drug. That would make it available immediately for off label use in pneumonia.
I'm not a believer that this will happen, but if a substantial number of people are tried in pneumonia, perhaps they'd act to do something there, whether it's called an approval or not.
I believe that if the benefits are so clear that no one can deny that people who get our drug have a much greater chance of survival, I've got to believe it will be Internationally accepted, and while the U.S. FDA may not be the first, they will come around. I think that either Israel or Germany may be first to accept the drug, as they're first to be testing it. We've not yet heard how far the German effort has gone. I'm hoping they've dosed many more people, but until something is announced it's purely speculation.
It would be nice to hear more from Israel, especially if we were to learn all 7 who were initially dosed have improved to the point they're being released from the hospital. 7 is a small start, but all 7 were on ventilators, many advanced to the point of going on ventilators don't make it, but 7 isn't sufficient to move the FDA. I really believe that they have adequate drug available and would hope they get the drug to somewhere between 100 and 1000, that could produce undenyable results.
Gary
Honestly the more I read the more I believe that PCTL has another market that few are naming, that's supplying both products and fluid to numerous companies that both provide service, and who also market their equipment.
As this coronavirus plays out I believe all sorts of businesses are becoming far more concerned with maintaining sanitary conditions. Not everyone will purchase equipment from PCTL or others, but they'll sign up for services from those who use their products. I cannot say how many times in looking at some company that's providing such services I find that they're doing it with PCTL equipment.
I first heard of this company just before New Year's last year, I bought the stock after just a few hours of looking into it. I frankly don't remember if I'd ever heard the term coronavirus, but twice in the last 6 years I had catheter infections, each in different hospitals that had excellent sanitation practices IMHO. It took some time each time to determine the precise bug that infected me, but in each case it was something they considered rare enought that they believed I acquired it in the hospital, though part of the time I was in outpatient treatment. I didn't need to know coronavirus was coming to recognize that what this company is doing will improve on what even the greatest hospitals currently are doing.
It will probably be November of next year before we know whether coronavirus will return, and what ferocity it will have. A vaccine by then is doubtful, and that's what truly cuts the threat. If people who've had it remain immune, the numbers will go down dramatically. I just heard a medical expert indicating we should be testing half a million people daily, if we want to return to some degree of normalcy, clearly we're not doing that. Because this disease can be spread by people who have no indication of infectious, we really need the blood test that say's, you've already had it. I know people who had what they thought to be cold or flu back in February, was it coronavirus, the only way they'll know is with a blood test. Personally, I frequently get a runny nose, slightly sore throat, etc, but have had no fever or other indications, and this is not unusual for me in the Winter, but did I have it, I can't say.
I believe the world will be a changed place as we get back to normal, it won't be anything like the normal of the past. People will be far more conscious of maintaining sanitary conditions. I believe that this will clearly make the demand greater for what we're providing, and I hope the company will eventually have a home model that's reasonably priced, but can reasonably cover a good sized home, or office, at a price that people can choose whether to do it themselves, or use a service to routinely sanitize there home or business.
Gary
While I completely agree with you, I believe that if our drug actually gains International acceptance for treating pneumonia, our market cap could easily be 5 to even 10 times that much. Of course before that occurs you could anticipate some dilution, but if we gain approvals, and if we're not bought out, this company should some day be well into a double digit billion dollar market cap. In time it may reach that level without approval in pneumonia, as other uses for it's drugs are found, but working in pneumonia could be huge, and would save the life of many people with disease that go well beyond coronavirus.
Gary
That warning should be cleared once the delinquent quarterly report is filed, the company said that would happen by the 15th of this month. They have additional time to file the annual report, because of the coronavirus. I'm hoping they actually file both at the same time, but certainly realize that even if they're ready, they may want to do separate releases.
I believe that even though it's many months late, the manuscript in the quarterly can discuss the up to the minute things the company is doing. I look forward to the annual report for more of that sort of thing, especially in terms of what's anticipated in the future.
I believe it's clear that the company is growing, new facilities opening, new service and sales orgainizations using and selling our products. While I believe that hospitals are best served if they own our equipment, there are many other smaller facilities that may be better served by service companies that use it. Either way on a regularly scheduled period, critical spaces are being sanitized.
When we're able to shop, we probably do more of it at Costco and Trader Joe's than anywhere else, with drugs from CVS. I believe that sanitizing any of these, and so many other stores, etc. could best be done by a service that could come in and in somewhere between a half hour, and a few hours sanitize the entire store, some with handheld electrostatic sprayers, others with the company's unit that generate the chemical as they're spraying it.
Nothing can be 100% certain of removal of all threats, things like lettuce bagged in plastic that contain something that's a problem cannot be cured by a mist sprayed through the establishment, but it will stop what's deposited by someone who's infected coughing, sneezing, or even just breating in the space. It's not something that can be done continuously, but a service doing it daily, or even weakly, will make a big dent in how many are being infected.
I cannot say how much prices may need to rise to pay for improved sanitation in retail establishments, but I suspect that after the coronavirus, consumers will welcome slightly higher prices to be safe.
Gary
Any thoughts on whether our fluid, probably diluted substantially, would have any benefits as a mouthwash. I suspect something to flavor it would also be desirable, but I've seen people use hydrogen peroxide in this way, I can't say it had benefits, I don't know.
Gary
I'm all for the clinical trial, I just hope that all receive the drug, no placebos. They know the prognosis for this disease, it shouldn't require not treating people who think they're getting it. There currently are probably 50K patients on or approaching being on ventilators, that should be the control.
This trial needs to be very quick to have real benefits. All the curves have the disease down to nearly nothing by mid June, or sooner. If they want to save significant numbers of lives, this needs to be in the hospitals in under a month.
Frankly, I wish the Govt. would purchase substantial quantities of the drug and make it available under right to try provisions, each person who received it could be tracked for at least anecdotal data about how well it worked.
Gary
If people like Dr. Fauci hear about this they will no doubt want to see results from a lot more people, I hope the company has already permitted many more under compassionate use to try it. The FDA etc may not like data from hundreds that aren't gathered under the environment of a clinical trial, but I believe the pressure to benefit patients may get them to take actions they'd rarely consider, approve a drug based on a lot of anecdotal evidence alone.
I would suspect that if they tried, the drug could be tried in 1000 people or more in a matter of days. If I'm correct about that, in two weeks time they could have undenyable evidence of its efficacy.
Gary
I don't know if they'd do compassionate use here, but take a look at this and perhaps you can get it requested for your friend.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/04/07/2012754/0/en/Pluristem-Reports-Preliminary-Data-from-its-COVID-19-Compassionate-Use-Program-Treating-Seven-Patients-with-Acute-Respiratory-Failure.html
Right now all the testing is in Israel and Germany, but the drug is in use here in other trials, so if authorized it should be available.
Gary
I would hope that between Israel and Germany they've expanded those getting PLX-PAD to at least 100 patients, then we'd have evidence that's undeniable. I'd also like to see a secondary group that are very congested, but not yet on a ventilator get the drug, and see if far fewer move to the ventilator, and if recovery appears accelerated.
If we now assume 20 million shares are outstanding, our market cap is still under $100 million, if trials confirm initial indications, it should be over ten times that.
Gary
Thanks, I skimmed it quickly and clearly missed it.
Gary
I don't see us on this list, did I miss it somewhere, or does the company need to do something to call attention to it.
https://milkeninstitute.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/Covid19%20Tracker%20NEW4-3-20-2.pdf
Clearly there is a tremendous amount of work going on for this, I would think if many got together it could be done quicker in a Manhattan Project sort of environment.
Gary
When it comes to a buyout, I believe there is a price at which anything is for sale. In the case of PCTL, I believe it's certainly somewhere in double digit billions, or perhaps high single digits.
Others have pointed out that others make our fluid, it's true. What's unique about what PCTL's doing is giving anyone wanting to make the fluid themselves the right to do so easily with readily available salt and water. In short, with little concern anyone can have an unlimited supply in not just the fluid, but a tracking system that tells them where it's been used, where it may need to be used, and if a portable device is being used to apply it, it's fresh enough to be effective. This is not simply handing the customer a product, it's handing them a system.
The deeper you dig into the company the greater you see it's potential can be. Certainly you don't get a $10 billion bid on a company with a market cap in the millions, but build that market cap up to a billion or more, than you might build interest in a buyout, and if you had a few bidders, it wouldn't take long to bid it up to $10 billion, or more. In that a $1 billion market cap represents just under $2 a share, I believe it's possible this year.
Gary
I show NWBO closing up $.0025, no big deal, but better than a loss. I really don't think we'll have a substantial movement in any direction until we get something of substance from the company. For now, the company may be up, or down with the general market, which is largely concerned with coronavirus, but once it's somewhat resolved, and when life returns to something more normal, I believe we'll see it move on its own.
Gary
I support the idea of trying something, rather than nothing, but I believe that Fauci and others are not that impressed with results with that drug. I believe PLX-PAD which is derived from placental stem cells and is being tried in Israel and Germany would be a much better choice. In it's patents pnemonia is clearly something it's intended for, though clinical trials to date, which are up to Phase 3, are for other things. The Chinese have indicated some success with placental stem cells.
PLSI has the patents for the 3-D bioreactor that will create 20,000 doses of this, or other, placental based drugs from a single placenta. I believe they have a substantial quantity of the drug stored cryogenically and they've made it available for compassionate use.
I believe there are other similar drugs also being tried, but clearly PSTI can produce more of it with their process. Others much more medically knowledgeable than me believe that two doses would be needed per patient, so potentially a single placenta could treat 10,000 patients with pneumonia whether it's caused by coronavirus, or other causes.
Clearly, the FDA hasn't studied this either, I'm waiting to hear what's happened in Israel and/or Germany, but once again it will be a small trial. I'm of the belief that the results may be far better than the marginal results seen with hydroxychloroquine. I believe that Trump is pushing the first thing he learned might have benefits rather than researching all the possibilities. I also understand the Chinese are saying they'll have a vaccine by Summer, if that's the case, can't we trust that as something we could use here, and reach an agreement with them to mass produce it.
We were ill prepared for the pandemic for many reasons, but clearly one of the biggest was our insistance on developing our own test, instead of working with the worlds nations to use, or improve on, what was being used in other parts of the world. Of course we lost the bubble some time before that when Trump eliminated the pandemic staff that was encouraging study of pandemics around the world. I'm sorry if this offends those who believe Trump is a hero in this matter, but if he is, can someone please explain to me how we lead the world in numbers of patients, and deaths.
Gary
I don't believe you're seeing crowds at hospital entrances, etc because that's not where coronavirus patients are entering, and non patients aren't permitted to come in to even visit. The ER associated with the hospital is more likely to be where the action is occurring, where people are being tested, evaluated, and the worst being hospitalized whether they come in by ambulance, or walk in.
As a patient at City of Hope they've made it clear that should I come in for an appointment, I cannot come in with anyone else, I'll be screened at the enterance, and if I'm having fever or other symptoms be directed to a different enterance where I'll be tested. To date, my appointment has been delayed a month, and I won't be surprised if it's delay beyond that.
I'm only suggesting that you'll not see chaos at hospital enterances, etc, the chaos is on the hospital floors where patients are stacked up to or beyond their capacity. Where you see lines, it's generally for testing, or where food banks are distributing food. This is real, but if you wish to take a drive, the road have the lightest traffic you'll ever see, at least here in L.A.
Gary
Nothing moves a stock like earnings. Sure, we know the delinquent quarter and annual report won't have them. But I believe the Annual Report can speak about current conditions up to the day it's issued, and I believe it can state that after the first quarter, which will still have a loss, later quarters all anticipate a profit.
Show profits and this is not a penny stock. Likewise, if consensus earnings are established, even if it's a substantial loss, if you beat the consensus, it's amazing you the share price is lifted.
I don't know that we have analysts establishing a consensus for our earnings, but if we do, I'd like to know what they are. If we start to show earnings, Analysts will follow. Before we know it, Analysts will be recommending the company to many of their investors, but not while it's selling for just a few pennies. Give it time and you'll be thrilled about your investment in this company.
Gary
If we get positive news in coronavirus, no controller will be able to hold down our share price. Without it, we'll be just fine as the CLI and other trials come to fruition and demonstrate the benefits we know are occurring. The FDA trial process is frustrating, they don't want to believe what they can see in front of their eyes, they want a pile of data that they can spend 6 months or more examining to say, yes the improvement is worthy of approval. Hopefully something less will be considered for coronavirus, at least in terms of permitting unlimited compassionate use, or right to try, if early data supports it.
We have fewer than 20 million shares outstanding. If we are credited with contributing to the condition of people with coronavirus, what is a fair market cap for the stock. I believe it will take us to over $1 billion. Approval for CLI or other applications should do as much or more, but they're some time away, coronavirus benefits would do it in a manner of hours.
Gary
I don't question the legality of what the company's doing, but I hope that as it grows it will move to get on at least the OTC exchange here in the U.S.
When I first bought through Fidelity I was assured the value of my VXLLF would be equal to VXL.CA, so I haven't worried about it. Of course it's always adjusted to currency fluxuations.
Gary
I only believe there is one reason not to unblind, that being they've not yet completely settled on an SAP that all 4 regulators agree on. Beyond that, any other reason has little, or no validity.
Of course it's very possible it's been agreed to and as we spend time speculating they're gathering information from all clinical sites. They could easily be hung up by just a few patients believed to still be alive that they're attempting to track down. In an interim look, calling a patient LTFU is no big thing, but when gathering up the final data, I believe they do not wish to have anyone in that catagory, even if they 5 years or more into the trial.
We're now at the point where even the last patient to enter the trial if currently alive would be near 4.5 years since beginning the trial, by far most of the living are beyond 5 years, and many probably beyond 6 or 7 years. I don't know how many are alive, but with the SOC it would probably be less than 15, so I believe we'll demonstrate a tremendous improvement on the SOC. Have improvements been made over the years in the trial that effect what the SOC is, we know they have surgically, and some of the later entrants in the trial may have benefitted from this as well, but still the benefits of the drug should be clear.
Gary
I must be honest, I'm holding my stock, but I'm paying little attention to what's happening here because of the company's decision not to report. I can understand their reason's why, but until something official comes from them, it's all speculation as to what they are, or aren't doing.
Years ago I had a stock that was delinquent reports for over a year and suddenly came to life with filing multiple reports finally coming current. When they did, it was to sell the corporate shell. Had I been smart I'd have gotten out when it went up a bit, but it wasn't worth much, so I held and it's hardly done a thing, but continues trading. My point is that companies can come back from the dead, and it could happen here.
I may look in occasionally, but will hardly look at everyones posts. Perhaps when coronavirus is no longer a major concern things will be different for this, and many other companies, and normal life will return to the world.
Gary
Any thoughts on the company moving off the grey market. I believe the share price would meet OTC requirements, but I'm unsure if they meet all such requirements. While they probably could go on the Pinks as well, I'm of the belief that it's hardly better than the grey market. The OTC should be the next step, and when the price meets requirements for other exchanges the move to one of those exchanges. By the way, most people think of the Nasdaq, but I believe the AMEX only requires a $1 price is a reasonable step up that could be achieved far quicker with no consideration of a reverse split which I would hate to see.
In reality, if our vaccine truly proved effective for coronavirus, and was in some way determined superior to others in development, a price in excess of $4 could come quickly as well. I suspect such a determination would result in either a partnership for it's development, or a buyout of either the entire company, or the product.
I certainly agree with all who find that getting information about the company is rather like pulling teeth, but many biotechs are no different. The grey market might limit it a little more, but the fact that it's listed in Canada should provide roughly the same information as what's required by our SEC.
Gary
Gary
Our of curiosity, I used Amazon to look for electrostatic sprayers and saw everything from hand pumped sprayers to powder coating devices using that term, including a lot of electric sprayers. I believe that few of these were truly electrostatic sprayers, I suspect the devices that powder coat would be. Does anyone here know of a small, readily available device that would work in our homes, or small offices if we could get the fluid to spray.
I know the shelf life of our product isn't that great, but if in a sealed container it's good for a few weeks or more. If an inexpensive device for spraying it was available I believe many would purchase the device and use the product during the time it's viable. While products like bleach are generally available, no one would want to mist bleach all over a home, office, or other public establishment. Our product can be used this way, the question is, is there a reasonably price product that can effectively use it.
Personally, I do have an air compressor, they really aren't very expensive for a small one, if the best device involve the use of such a compressor I believe it would be something worthy of consideration.
Gary
Snow,
Thats true of most things it's on, but not everything. It's been found that non-porous surfaces like metal it can last for over 10 days. I believe it was found on the ship that had numerous people with it over two weeks later. Without mitagation it's a very nasty problem.
We try to sanitize or not handle practically everything we receive. Anything on cardboard, paper, etc is supposed to be fine in under a day, so things like mail are just set aside for a day, washing our hands after taking them in, likewise packages delivered to te house.
For a place like a hospital, where patients are known to have it, or a market, drugstore, etc a device like our electrostatic sprayer should be able to sanitize things quite well, but while the pandemic is ongoing they should be used frequently. The good thing is they can be safely used with people present.
Gary
I agree that's what it should be about, the problem is that drug companies who wish to be paid for what they're providing must provide information about what the actual cost of production is. Companies refuse to divulge that information, so they either don't participate, or they give their drug away. A better way needs to be found to pay these companies without forcing them to do what they're completely unwilling to do.
PSTI may have millions of doses available, I don't know, but if they do, I'd like to see the Govt. say, let us buy 100K doses for $1 billion, a price that should be below what their retail price will be, but sufficient to make them whole for making the drug. If we need more, we will purchase more on the same terms. Of course the same terms should be available to Govts. around the world.
Now is not the time for negotiations over what price is fair to save a life, if the drug works, enough should be paid to give the company value, but the key is getting it to patients ASAP. As I see it, every patient on a ventilator plus those the doctors believe could require a ventilator in days should get the drug, if 100K doses isn't sufficient, do it again immediately.
Gary
I believe much of the problem has to do with people justifying their scientific viewpoint of how things should be done. It's very rare that the FDA will see excellent results being achieved and stop a trial and just approve a drug. It goes against everything they stand for.
Our drugs often spend over a decade in development. If benefits were clear in Phase 1/2 you could make them available at some price, where virtually all who received them were considered an additional trial, call it Phase 4 or whatever. That would bring the process down to a couple years, and save hundreds of millions spent in drug development, but their could be some problems, and all who opted for the drug would have to waive their right to take actions against the developer, or the FDA.
Gary
Spider,
While I agree with what you're saying, if we can prove that PLX-PAD works now, while I'd love to see it save a lot of lives, that can only happen if it becomes available in a matter of weeks. Until a vaccine that's effective is developed this will still be a big problem. If it's validated now, in the roughly November time frame where it may start to reappear, perhaps we can greatly limit it's impact by making it generally available for pneumonia patients.
Frankly, I believe pneumonia could be a far greater market than any of the other diseases they've targeted to date. I believe that all forms of pneumonia may benefit from our drugs, not just coronavirus based. Someone with medical knowledge believe that just two doses would be all that would be required. No doubt this won't be cheap, but it will be far cheaper then treating CLI or other diseases that take multiple applications in many places.
Gary
I agree with your valuation, but for sales to be substantial things have to happen quickly if you've seen the curves. Here's a link:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
The point I'm getting at is that by July, things are practically down to nothing. A lot of people will be dead before then, but my point is that to save the lives, this needs to be in the hospitals worldwide in the next few weeks, not in clinical trials. If the outcome in Israel and Germany is so shocking that no one can deny the benefits, perhaps that could happen, but generally the medical community insists on more proof, by the time that occurs, this crisis will be over.
Don't get me wrong, a cure for pneumonia can bring a $100 price by itself, even if the benefit's not seen until more trials are run. I'd like to see lives saved now, and if the early patients show a major improvement, I think they should get it to patients on ventilators, and ideally before they're that advanced, and hopefully avoid the ventilators.
Gary
I know little about Cellularity, as I understand it, we have far greater manufacturing capability, but I'd like to know if the product they're using is already in the clinic for something else, and if so, how far advanced.
In that both of our products are in Phase 3 Trials they've clearly proven themselves safe, and have efficacy worthy of running Phase 3 Trials. I believe that should put us in the lead, even if they're first to dose in the U.S. We're dosing in Israel, and may be in Germany, or will be soon.
If you look at the curves, by mid April we'll be near the peak in most of the forecast curves, basically from what I've seen by June the numbers really come down substantially. If we really want to cut the number of deaths, if initial trials look good, we need to get the worlds govts. to go for treatment with it by May. Here's a link to the best data I've seen for the U.S.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Our drug won't prevent getting infected with the disease, but if it's effective it can greatly reduce the deaths, and should greatly diminish the need to put people on regulators.
Gary
I wasn't invested then and know nothing about past problems. I'm sure you're essentially correct. If the share price goes dramatically higher on initial news of efficacy in coronavirus, I would have no qualms about the company offering some share to bring in substantial money.
We currently have under 20 million shares outstanding. Solid news should make the company worthy of at least a half billion, but I believe a billion dollar market cap. If the O/S grows to 25 million, that's a $40 price for a billion dollar market cap, frankly if PLX-PAD were adopted for use in pneumonia, I believe the market cap would be well over $10 billion, even if it wasn't given until a patient was thought to need hospital care.
So many diseases ultimately kill when in a weakened state people get pneumonia. Common flu typically kills tens to hundreds of thousands annually, only about .1% of all who get the disease, but still a lot of people who'd survive if the pneumonia were cured.
Let's see what the evidence shows when we get data on many people who've taken the drug.
Gary
In reality, I don't believe most hospitals, etc would choose to sanitize what's intended to be a disposable mask if substantial disposable masks are available at fair prices. Currently people are paying several dollars for something that should be priced at pennies, and will return to pennies when it's not in short supply.
Preventing infections in all sorts of places should have greater value than sanitizing, and then sharing, what are essentially paper masks.
Personally I went to Amazon and purchased cloth masks that have built in replaceable filters. They're selling for what people are spending for a single disposable N-95 mask, they're not quite N-95, but they're far better than folding a scarf.
Gary
I can understand sanitizing agricultural products on harvesting them, but I'm wondering if they have recidual protection for the time they spend in shipment, or on a market shelf. As I understand the coronavirus, on hard surfaces it can live for days, but on softer surfaces, it's less time, I suspect that most vegatables, fruit, etc would be considered softer surfaces, so any virus from harvest ought to be dead by the time it reaches the market.
The market, on the other hand, may have customer with the virus that could get on produce, perhaps it should be routinely sanitized. We make a point of sanitizing what we purchase or have delivered if it's something we want to use immediately, on the other hand we leave it in the garage for at least a day if we don't.
Gary
Personally I'd like to know how many are still alive, the status of the SAP, and I'd like to know if they have a target date for submitting a BLA for the trial, something that's not on your list.
I'm not a great believer in asking questions intended to embarrass management.
Gary
It seems to me that if this works they'll know it in a week or less, why wait for 30 to 60 days.
We're now approaching a week since our first 3 patients were dosed in Israel, by this time I would expect them to know if these people have improved, or not. As I remember it, all 3 patients are already on ventilators, they may be in medically induced comas, if they're treated like most here who are that advanced are. If the drug has worked, I would expect them to be off the ventilator by now, and perhaps even discharged from the hospital. Of course this is JMHO, I have no medical knowledge that the drug should work that quickly. I certainly welcome the thoughts of those who have such medical experience.
Gary
What's the saddest thing to me is that we had people in a pandemics group who predicted this, and they were working with other countries on how to deal with it, until they were fired. It wouldn't have prevented it from happening, but had they been listened to, and remained on the job, we, and perhaps much of the rest of the world would have been much better prepared.
I don't know that a great deal more preparation would have changed how we needed to handle it, but rather it would have lowered the numbers who'll be infected, and die substantially. This is a very contageous disease, but if we knew who had it and maintained proper isolation, it could have been resolved much quicker. As is, I'm hoping that football will be played this fall.
Gary
What's the saddest thing to me is that we had people in a pandemics group who predicted this, and they were working with other countries on how to deal with it, until they were fired. It wouldn't have prevented it from happening, but had they been listened to, and remained on the job, we, and perhaps much of the rest of the world would have been much better prepared.
I don't know that a great deal more preparation would have changed how we needed to handle it, but rather it would have lowered the numbers who'll be infected, and die substantially. This is a very contageous disease, but if we knew who had it and maintained proper isolation, it could have been resolved much quicker. As is, I'm hoping that football will be played this fall.
Gary
For all the theorists on Dr. Duffy, here's the ultimate conspiracy theory. It all began over a dozen years ago when Merck spoke with NWBO management about what they were doing. Essentially they began discussions on what they were doing, and Merck said, you prove it works and is approvable, and we'll buy your company once you prove it to us by trial. They agreed that a fair price would be something over $20 billion.
Time passes, the trial evolves, and approaching the finish line Merck says, we'll keep our end of the bargain, but we need to see how you're doing, and assist you in getting the trial properly evaluated, so we want Dr. Duffy to work with you in dealing with the regulators.
Now Merck's been satisfied, Dr. Duffy has returned, the top line data will be released, the price will move up dramatically, and when the time is right, Merck will step in, perhaps with a partnership at first to build the price higher, but eventually they'll purchase the company.
This is clearly a fiction, but no more so than some of the speculation that others are suggesting about Dr. Duffy's role. We really will never know precisely why Dr. Duffy did what he did, but we know one thing, Merck knows more about what NWBO is doing than any of the other BP's.
Gary
Congrats Captain,
My youngest daughter felt terrible about a week ago, thought she had it, but is feeling much better, and not tested. Frankly I wish we knew one way or the other, but I suspect we won't until some day she has a blood sample taken that will tell if she ever had it.
The stories about people who're sick being refused tests is a sad commentary on where we are. The Federal Govt. makes it sound like we're swimming in tests, and likewise there are plenty of machines that can process them in 15 mibnutes, yet people keep being denied the kit, or when they finally get one it takes a week or more to get results.
I don't doubt that eventually the 15 or less minute test will be available most everywhere, what's sad is with planning ahead it could have been available even before cases were even seen in the U.S. as it was available elsewhere. Perhaps the test developed here is better, but they could have improved on the foreign versions by last December or January if the Govt. had pushed for it.
Gary