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Perhaps some of the critics are correct, why don't we just advertise for a Fortune 500 CEO to come and take over a Pink that was sub-penny less than 6 months ago. I really believe such a company warrants an experienced CEO with a proven track record. Give me a break.
I don't know Gary, other than by podcast, but I believe he has a plan to build the company, as is executing it quite well. One of these days the description of the company found at places like the CNBC app need to change, and I suspect that will happen when they see earnings, and determine the company is no longer an empty shell, as they describe it, and has become a money making enterprise. By the time they determine that, those of use who invested for less than a penny, a nickel, or perhaps even a dime will have substantial gains, at least double our initial investment.
If you invest in a stock that's trading on the NYSE or the Nasdaq you should feel entitled to a company that has it's required filing dates, it's also one that has a CEO who's probably earning a 7 or bigger digit salary, along with big stock option bonuses. That's not what you can expect from a pink sheet stock. If that pink sheet stock moves up to the Nasdaq, by the time it get there it's CEO will be recognized as being worth that 7 digit salary, and it might be the very same guy you complained about when it was on the pink sheets.
Gary
I believe we'll see the Annual and quarterly reports in the next week and hopefully that will clarify at least a few things. For one, I hope it establishes some targets for what's to be delivered in the U.K. agreement, and how quickly they anticipate it happening. While I believe over the course of this agreement hundreds of millions will be paid, it's currently impossible to say over what period. To me it's not clear the units will be manufactured here, or if they'll set up manufacturing in the U.K., the only thing that's clear is PCTL will make money.
It's the later quarters and beyond that will really establish earnings potential and growth. While Gary indicated 40% growth month over month starting in July, as I remember it, that rate of growth can't be sustained that long. Most companies would be thrilled with 40% in annual growth, some perhaps for a decade, if based on the added distributors and manufacturing capabilities they achieve 40% month over month for even a few months, we'll be sitting on some very substantial earnings by the end of the year.
I believe in many of our distributors who've been contracted to sanitize hospitals, and other places for years, you'll see them migrating the facilities they're working from manual to the PCTL system whether they install and use the system there, or sell the facility on purchasing it. Either way it can produce better sanitation, and reduced costs over time. Perhaps the biggest gains may take awhile to determine, but they'll be in the savings hospitals will achieve in reducing the cost of hospital based infections.
I would hope that by this time next year we've returned to a more normal lives, it could happen even sooner if a therapeutic is found that lowers the threat of covid-19 dramatically, or later with a vaccine, but regardless, improved sanitation will be something that will remain long after the pandemic disappears, I believe we're ideally positioned to provide for that happening.
Gary
I believe you're very right, and as I understand it, even Sweden, who didn't isolate, is only up to 7% community spread, that's not going to prevent it from getting worse. I do believe a therapeutic may prove to be a game changer, and I have some PSTI and believe their PLX-PAD could be it.
The fear would go away if people knew that if they get it, and they reach the stage where the get pneumonia, they'll receive the injections and the likelihood of a cure is over 95%. It was actually about 80% in the first 8 ventilator patients that received the drug, but I believe it will be much better when given before a ventilator is ever required.
If I'm right, and we should know by August, I would suspect that they'll be able to dose all ventilator patients within months, and less severe patient by roughly November. Then if we do get a vaccine by next year, the fear will be completely removed, and life can return to normal. If I'm wrong about the therapeutic, we'll wait for the vaccine to seriously get back to normal, and hopefully it will be available early next year, but it certainly could be longer.
Gary
You may be right, but I expressed the view elsewhere that I believe we're somewhere around 25 to 30 trading days from TLD being revealed. Over that period, I believe we'll see an average gain of $.01 to $.02 a day. That would position us to roughly double when TLD is seen to a price between $1 and $2.
Merck has a market cap approaching $200 billion, talk of NWBO hitting $350 a share is suggesting that it can be bigger than MRK, very very doubtful, but if vaccine from NWBO truly worked in many solid cancers, it's not impossible, but I wouldn't hold my breath, it would take decades.
What is reasonable is that a year or so from now DCVax-Direct demonstrates that it works in numerous cancers, perhaps DCVax-L does the same. If that were the case, and the company waits for it to happen, the price of a buyout reaches $30 to $50 billion, rather than the $20 billion suggested by LP at one point. On the other hand, if this fall a bid came in for $10 billion, I don't know that investors wouldn't encourage management to take it. While I like the idea of holding out for $20 or more, I don't see that happening before approval and more data on DCVax-Direct, which to me sound like no earlier than second half or 2021. The question is, does the company and it's investors have the patience to wait, I really don't know the answer.
Gary
While I'd love to see what you're saying occur, I believe you're placing too much emphasis on unblinding. It would be one thing if we weren't told anything about when it was anticipated, but we were.
If this were a year, or even 6 months ago, and suddenly out of nowhere it was announced that the trial was unblinded, I believe it would be a much bigger event, but when you announce something's happening, and provide a timeline, I believe the price will grow right up to the time we get TLD, and if it's as good as we believe, it may double or more from wherever it is before TLD is announced.
As I see it, we're roughly 4 to 7 weeks from when we were told TLD will be out. I'm just looking to watch and enjoy the ride.
Gary
I hadn't heard of the company back at the time you're referring to, but I like what I see them doing. If the company attempted to establish distributorships that were company owned it would have taken years to build sufficient revenue to do so. By signing up others to distribute their products and fluids they almost instantly are expanding their distribution channel. Yes, they may not make as much as if they did it themselves, but it would take year's, perhaps decades to develop such a chain of company owned suppliers.
I frankly don't know what the deal is with each of the distributors, they all might be the same, or quite different. What's important IMHO is that they'll be selling far more fluid, and equipment with distributors virtually coast to coast rather than all sales coming from the company.
When I first heard of the company, it was clear that ACE had installed the units in most of the hospital locations. Since then they've taken on several more distributors, and added a whole lot of hospitals. It's also pretty clear that they're selling more units as fast as they can make them because of all the distributors. It's still not clear to me if units for the U.K. will be manufactured here, or there, but regardless, they will be paid for what they're providing.
We may never know all the details of each of these distributorships, but we'll be watching the income grow, and that will result in dramatically higher share prices. That's all I need to know.
Gary
Right now CNBC has us at under 530 million shares outstanding, let's say by years end we're up to 600 million. That would mean that for a $1 share price we'd have to justify a $600 million market cap. On a P/E basis if we looked at 10, that would require earning $60 million, at 30 it would be $20 million. While I believe both of these figures are possible, if sales are growing with each quarter, our valuation may be judged much more based on where we are by the fourth quarter. If we're earning $15 million that quarter we meet the P/E of 10 criteria, if it's $5 million, we meet the P/E 30 criteria.
I certainly don't know where we'll be, but I certainly think somewhere between $5 and $15 million is very possible in the fourth quarter, and it might be substantially more than that. What if we earn $15 million, and the P/E is 30, then we're talking about a $3 price. What's the worst anyone thinks we might earn in that quarter. Let's say it's $1 million. Even at that, with a P/E of 30 we'd be worth $.20, over 3 times what we are today. Most people would be thrilled with stocks being up 300% a year.
I believe we'll do much more than a million a quarter, even the post suggesting $500K a month would have us at $1.5 million a quarter. Frankly when I saw the U.K agreement I believe that alone would be worth hundreds of millions over a few years. Let's say I'm wrong about that, it's only worth $100 million over 4 year, that's $25 million a year on average. Too much, how about $100 million over 10 years, $10 million a year, even that is $2.5 million a quarter. In the earlier estimate where $1 million a quarter gave us $.20, that would give us $.50 cents on the U.K. agreement alone.
We don't know with certainty how anything will go, but I believe we know enough to see what I'm saying above is reasonable. I believe by the fourth quarter we'll see several millions from the U.K. agreement, and several million from U.S. operations and it will all add up to well over a dollar share price, and a market cap approaching or over $1 billion.
Gary
It seems to me that many of the companies signing up to distribute PCTL are also becoming mass producers of the fluids. I'm uncertain the time to bring them up to speed, but over time the volume of HOCL that's produced will grow dramatically. Eventually, shipping will be reduced as regional producers will have users a matter of hours away by truck, rather than several days away.
I suspect that over time the company will probably introduce units both larger and smaller than what's currently available for doing individual properties. A hospital that today might require 4 units might get a single larger fluid producer, and multiple electrostatic sprayers to distribute the fluid throughout the hospital.
Likewise, a sanitation company that services a substantial area may want a producer just big enough to meet its daily needs, larger than the units in most hospitals, but smaller than the major production units.
What I guess I'm saying is that the company is in its infancy, it can grow in so many ways, and all of them result in them making money, and their distributors making money, it's win-win all the way.
Gary
I think it was clear from the beginning that Remdisaver had benefits, but wouldn't greatly diminish the deaths, this really is confirming the earlier findings. There may be other products that compete with PLX-PAD, but I believe it's clearly above any of the products that are available today because they're approved for other applications.
It's not clear when 28 days will occur for the additional patients that compassionate use was granted for, but we certainly should hear something about them in the next couple weeks. What we don't know is how many more are getting the drug under compassionate use terms, I don't believe they've stopped the program of looking at it when it's applied for.
I'm uncertain if people who receive the drug under compassionate use pay anything, if they don't, getting it under compassionate use is better than getting into a trial, because you may get the placebo in the trial.
It may be August or September before we learn the trial results, though clinicians can stop trials early if they believe the benefits are great, and the outcome obvious, but this is a short trial in the first place, so it will probably go 28 days or more for all participants.
Gary
I don't disagree with you, I'm not a technician, but I've learned how they think, and observed what happens, and at some point I find they're usually correct. A stock makes a big move up, then retrenches a substantial percentage of that move, then it's positioned to advance dramatically again.
There are computer programs and day-traders who routinely trade on such moves, and frankly while I've not done it in the past, if I sense the stock has advanced so far it's due to retrench, I may sell in a Roth, where I can purchase additional shares on retrenching, if I'm right, with no tax consequences. Of course I could be wrong, then I'd be buying back in and getting fewer shares. The thing is, if you've had say a 30% gain, if it does retrench 50% of that gain, which technicians say is common, you can get substantially more shares if you play it completely right. I'm not intending to do it now, but if TLD moved the share price to over $2, I suspect it will give back perhaps $.50 before advancing further, that would make it a worthwhile trade.
I believe it's very possible that we'll see $.50 or more before we get TLD, but it will come with both up, and down days, and some days that start up and end down, and vise versa. I can't say how many times I've seen a stock trading higher all day, and closing just below the line, or just the opposite, all that matters when you look at your account is the closing price, unless you've traded the stock during the day. Computerized trading programs might trade it hundreds or thousands of times in a day profiting on fractions of a penny in gains.
Frankly, I preferred the marketplace better when stocks didn't trade with spreads of a few hundredths of a penny, but that's today's market. If the Govt. ever wanted to put an end to computerized trading, they'd add a small transaction fee, say $1, that would change the metrics dramatically. With brokerages not charging for trades, those who trade on a few cents up, or down, can make substantial gains if they're right. In that news is rarely released during the market day, if you want to be in a stock when it hits, the key is not being out at the end of the day. On the other hand, I know day-traders who jump in and out during the day, and want to be out at the end of every day. I've never traded that way, but I do know people who have.
Gary
I agree with most all of what you're saying, as well as the fact that some retrenchment is normal at some point, can't say it will be on Tuesday, but at some point part of the gain will be lost, before it moves up to new highs.
I may be overly optimistic, but I believe that three weeks puts us in the middle of June, and once we're there as I see it, we're in the window that the company provided for TLD. I know three weeks would be early, but four weeks would put us in essentially the last quarter of the month.
I know if I were in LP's shoes, if I thought the work could be done in 10 weeks, my estimate to the public would probably be 12 to 15. I would rather be early, than greatly underestimate the time, and be really late. That's why I think by mid June anything is possible.
Gary
I actually believe that DCVax-Direct, once approved, will be used in other ways as well. In the case of my wife's breast cancer a quarter century ago, it was a few months between diagnosis and surgery. From what I've observed, that hasn't changed much, it just doesn't happen that quickly.
I believe that on discovery of a tumor, operable or not, DCVax-Direct could be made and injected into the tumors. If the tumor is, or shrinks to the point it's operable, the advantage of injecting it would be that any mets that can't be detected and/or removed in the surgery would have the Direct working against them. The tumor may be used to create DCVax-L to reinforce the treatment, but hopefully the mets die off, rather than needing further treatment.
Sadly you really never know that all the cancers been removed and won't reoccur. My sister was about 10 years post treatment when a cancer reoccurred, her oncologist had told her no need to see him again, but it was caught in a physical by a new Dr. She's undergoing experimental treatment, I frankly wish they could try DCVax-Direct.
It will probably take several years after initial approval for other applications of these vaccines to evolve, and by themselves they'll probably be shown to be of benefit, but not curative in most cases. The thing is, if other protocols are working, they'll be shown to work better with the addition of DCVax L and/or Direct.
Gary
Perhaps I'm crazy, but I believe that the purpose of a placebo is to determine if the psychological benefit that might be derived from believing you were getting some additional treatment is eliminated from the trial equation. Certain benefits have been seen with placebos.
As I understand it, patients on ventilators are essentially placed in a coma while their lives are sustained artificially. If this is correct, they're not going to know they're being given a placebo, so their can be no psychological effect.
I don't know how many people worldwide are on ventilators and not undergoing some experimental treatment, but I believe the number goes into the tens of thousands in the U.S., and hundreds of thousands worldwide. I believe that group of people should be adequate to consider the control. Based on the data to date, I believe it's been determined that nearly 80% of ventilator patients don't make it.
I know that nothing I say matters, but I believe all experimental treatment only being given to ventilator patients should be the real thing, no placebos. I'll go one step further, if a treatment is tried before patients go on ventilators, and because they're conscious placebo's are used, if they advance to going on ventilator, they should unblind and if on the placebo, switch the patient over to the trial drug.
If it were up to me, placebo's wouldn't be used at all where historical data was solid. Goals set based on historical data should be sufficient to approve drugs. Patients in trials shouldn't need to guess if they're the one getting the drug, or the placebo. JMHO.
Gary
DE,
Out of curiosity, I know you're intending to apply PCTL's products in the petroleum industry. Are you intending to specialize just in that sector, or will you be getting into all areas that PCTL can serve.
I believe you can be highly successful either way, just curious about which path you're choosing to take.
Gary
When I see people estimating the future share price based on the market potential, all that I've seen are based on treating GBM. Please correct me if I'm wrong, I believe that I've read that over the years the company has permitted the vaccine to be used on a compassionate use bases in other cancers and the patients improved, or actually were cured. I know a one person, or even a few person test is not sufficient to consider for approval, but I would expect that once they have approval for GBM they'll initiate trials to broaden the label.
Completing new trials is not nearly as important as seeing what amounts to interim data that's positive. Why? Because if it's positive in certain additional cancers, Doctor's don't have to wait for FDA approval, once the drug is approved for one disease it can be used off label for others.
Some Doctors knowing it's history might do it immediately, especially if they have patients where nothing else is working, essentially it's like compassionate use, but not the company is paid for the drug. Anecdotal evidence will grow, and as it does, more Doctors will try it.
If you consider the above, and believe that at least some of the off label use will prove positive, how would you value the company. Perhaps even more importantly, when DCVax-Direct trials resume, I believe they'll be done with multiple cancers, again if interim peeks at that trial appear positive in a number of cancers, how does this add.
I believe that those who say this company could grow to a market cap going into triple digit billions are right, but only if further trials actually prove that many cancers benefit from the use of both drugs. It's not to say the vaccines by themselves are curative, but rather that patients benefit from their use. Perhaps in combinations with other therapies you achieve a cure, perhaps people just live substantially longer.
This Thanksgiving I'll be 7 years post diagnosis of leukemia, I'm currently 5 years post stem cell transplant. I wish I could say I was cured, but I remain on chemo as my Dr. still believes it's the best insurance against it reoccurring. If I dropped the chemo, the odds would still be about 70% on my side that it wouldn't come back, I certainly don't like the side effects, but I'd rather accept them then face what I'd have to if it did come back.
As I understand the side effects of our vaccine, they're tiny by comparison to what people experience with most other forms of treatment. Even if cures are unobtainable, if life extensions of years and good quality of life is the result for a fair percentage, and it proves to work for many cancers, I believe the earnings will certainly go into double, and perhaps even triple digit billions over time, you can pick the P/E you believe is reasonable to arrive at what the stock price could be at that time. Of course if the company is bought out, the price ends at the buyout price, but if it's partnered, even if the partner effectively has control, it's unlimited as to how high it may go. I like the partnership because with it, essentially immediately, the company would have the financial resources to initiate new trials, they wouldn't need to wait for earnings to do so, or greater dilution.
Gary
Any thoughts on whether we immediately go higher on Tuesday when the market reopens, or retrench before that happens. I had spoken with a friend who last weekend said he was going to purchase during the week. When I spoke with him today, he said he'd be getting in on Tuesday, and I told him he missed out on nearly a 50% gain.
I think most technicians would say retrenching say to the $.28 area before advancing again is healthy. Others believe it should just keep going up. I'm not a technician, but have developed a healthy respect for what they say. If it continues to rise without moving down a bit, it will probably make a bigger correction from the high, then if it dips some on Tuesday before moving up again. It certainly could close green, but I wouldn't mind if it did so after first giving up a few cents.
I'm now of the belief that we should be $.50 or more before TLD is seen, I'd like to hear the thoughts of others.
Gary
Most hospitals have been freed up to do elective procedures, that should mean clinical trials can proceed. The key is capacity, for awhile we needed more capacity than was available, thankfully we're past that unless we permit the numbers to rise again in most of the U.S.
Gary
I don't believe the fact that they we were on the Nasdaq before will make a difference, to get back on the Nasdaq we'll need a $4 share price in addition to meeting other requirements. I believe the AMEX is available to the company at $1 and that might be a smart move at first if they don't want to wait. I believe they'll see $4 or more in under a year, but don't know that they want to wait for it.
Personally I think the Nasdaq should be based on the market cap, rather than the share price, but that's not how it is now. Companies are routinely falling below $1 and forced to do reverse splits to stay on the Nasdaq. Unfortunately, those R/S's generally have such negative connotations that much of the market cap is temporarily lost because of doing a R/S.
The idea that a company with few outstanding shares and a few million on the market cap qualifies for the Nasdaq, and a company that's well over a billion dollar market cap doesn't seems wrong to me. NWBO will have over a $3 billion market cap by the time the share price is over $4, I wouldn't want to see a R/S to have it happen earlier, but that's the sort of thing the Nasdaq qualifications cause.
Gary
You're correct, the company's answer will often not satisfy the questioner, but it's no different than what any other company does, they divulge what they're willing to divulge. Most of what remains to be established will eventually be established by the financials in time.
I've seen webcasts where investors could call in, and truly some of the questioners were clearly trying to embarrass the company, in some cases, they achieved their goal.
Shorting is a part of investing, while personally I don't like it and wish it weren't legal, it's not a matter of what I like. I don't however believe the company must openly submit itself to comments or questions from those attempting to bring it down, so no, I won't support the idea of investors being given an open mike to attempt to bring down the company.
I've often had things I hoped would be discussed by a company in their quarterly webcast. When I wrote them in advance of the webcast and suggested subjects to be covered I often found they were covered. No matter how deeply they cover a subject, some investors will not be satisfied with the answer, we'd all like to know more, but I can understand management being limited as to all they can divulge.
Gary
I tend to equate the two of them, based on the P/E ratio that can be anticipated once earnings are established. While P/E's usually run somewhere between 10 and 30, I would believe that as long as dramatic growth is still anticipated, when PCTL establishes earnings, the P/E might well be over 30 until the growth rate settles down.
I believe the company indicated that they were looking at 40% growth, month over month. Most companies would be thrilled with 40% growth annually, 40% growth per month is spectacular, but can only be sustained for a limited number of months. The good news is I believe they're sustaining it by establishing distributors, many who install their fluid generating equipment, so they're producing product on site, rather than having it shipped from the company. Equipment comes from the company, whether they're selling or leasing it to hospitals, or using it for other applications.
I really believe that right now we're in one of the fastest growing companies in the world, but it's still flying under most investors radar. I honestly can't say when investors will take it seriously, in many cases it won't be until the price is $1, in some case Institutions want to see in excess of $5. These prices can be achieved, but it will take time. For now, we know about it, and we can afford to wait until others learn just what we have here, probably when we're over a dime or perhaps a quarter.
Gary
What you're suggesting is often done by companies when presenting quarterly results. In such briefings results are first discussed, then a Q & A with Analysts tied into the call. I don't know that we have many, or even any Analysts, and it's possible that some larger shareholders could be permitted to ask questions.
In such webcasts, when it came to Institutions I often felt they knew what they could, and couldn't ask, but when opened to Investors, no limitations were established, and questions intended to embarrass the company were clearly being asked. Often the answer was, we cannot discuss that at this time. In short, in some cases the webcast became counter productive.
I'd suggest that if such a webcast is done, Analysts may ask questions, but investor questions should be submitted in advance, probably by email, and the company could answer those they choose to. Questions intended purely to embarrass the company from shorts can be eliminated with such a proceedure.
Gary
Hopefully after the close we'll get the financials, it doesn't have to happen, but I believe it's what's holding us down, so I'd certainly like to see it. We know they're not showing profits, perhaps less loss, but it's just something that's required, and it's missing.
It's been pointed out that we're down this month, but we're still a week from ending the month, we could still close positive, though that's not a major concern when we're up as much as we are on the year. While I'd love to see a green close, we're still two hours away, and anything can happen.
Three months from now I believe the picture will be totally different. Why? Because we should have second quarters earnings by then, and the earnings in the second quarter will be a strong message about how profitable we're becoming.
With each week we seem to learn about new hospital installations, new distributors, in short, new potential, organizations selling our fluids, selling our equipment, selling services in which our fluids and/or equipment is used. All of this means just one thing, increased revenue, and I can hardly wait until we see it.
Gary
Thanks DE,
With your knowledge of the oil industry, do you believe that when it stabilizes the industry will need more from PCTL, or will the demand diminish as fracking is reduced as adequate oil can be delivered without it.
I believe one lesson Covid-19 provided is how much we can clear the air when we eliminate a lot of coal and petroleum based energy usage. I believe in many places we're well on the way toward electric cars becoming dominant. I would hope that a lot of the coal burning will at least be replaced with natural gas.
I know these changes don't occur instantly, but the photo's from space don't lie about how quickly things got cleaner when we cut back on polluting, it seems to me it adds to our incentive to do it long term. I believe there will always be a need for petroleum, just less of it over time.
I believe that we now know that with fracking we can reach a great deal more petroleum when we need it, I'm just suggesting we're much better off to put off getting it rather than using it until it's no longer available.
The world has dramatically changed this year, when things return to normal I suspect normal will be very different from today. In some ways better, in some worse, but definitely different. I suspect that things like flying and cruising will be safer, as ways will be found to make them so. HOCL can play a big part in that, but by itself it's not the complete answer. I did see that they plan to put UV lights on the Subway trains in New York to be used when the cars are not in use, it will certainly help, but can't kill germs if they're shaded from the lights, electrostatic sprayers reach all that's exposed.
I really believe as people learn that HOCL can be electrostatically sprayed, and they wouldn't even get wet if they were present, people will learn to accept it's use while they're in an area, or just walk away for a few seconds. I have no idea how it feels, but they say it's already in our eyes naturally, so it shouldn't bother our vision. I would suppose I'd need to clean my glasses, but other than that I gather you just feel cleaner. Certainly acceptable in my mind if it means staying healthy.
Gary
In the clinical trials database, there is a Phase 1 for Direct that's listed, but never started, here's a link:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03638765?term=DCVax-Direct&draw=2&rank=2
It seems to me that the company stated the next trial would be Phase 2 and would be done with multiple cancers. Hopefully when they get that trial into the database, it will be structured to be pivotal if the data is sufficient, or can be expanded becoming a Phase 3. The FDA has become much more amenable to trials that adapt to what's learned. I believe we're approach the time when trials can essentially morph from Phase 1 to 2 to 3 without ever stopping as long as those involved, including the regulators agree that what's being seen is worthy of further investigation.
In the past, I'm aware of a trial that was called for MTD because of a severe headache, which might have been mitigated by aspirin, etc. but they were not in the protocol. The FDA at that time simply indicated, they could run another trial and include it. Years and millions could be added, the FDA didn't care. Today I believe they're more open to learning about the drug in the trial process, and if something that bothers a patient can be mitigated by a simple addition, they permit it.
We'll never know if the drug would have been more effective had substantially higher dosing levels been achieved, the company simply didn't have the time and money to run the additional trials.
The FDA's protocols generally result in what I consider to be worst case scenarios. Drug makers don't look at the disease they have the best chance at curing if it's a cancer that victims typically live for years with. They look at the most deadly cancer that they believe their drug may have a chance at. GBM was NWBO's choice, many choose pancreatic, the reason's simple, the trial will be shorter as patients die much quicker. If colon cancer were the best choice, they know they'd be looking at decades to do the trial and a very large trial as many patients with it are cured. If they do manage to gain approval with GBM, pancreatic, etc further testing will show it works for other cancers and it will be used well before it's ever approved for the other indications.
Sadly, a lot of great drugs may have been abandoned because while they helped with pancreatic cancer, they weren't sufficiently better than the SOC to gain approval. Companies simply cannot afford the time and money to keep trying the same drug against a variety of targets, perhaps with one exception, CVM. I've followed CVM for decades and they keep trying the same drug in different conditions. Some here believe they finally found the disease that's the mate to their drug, we'll see. I had invested in it decades ago when it was targeted at AIDS, and the symbol was HIV, the same guy was the CEO, and most of their press releases just needed a find and replace app to change the disease the new trial was aimed at. They've existed on the strength of new PR's touting the drug against a new threat, followed by a lot of new shares being issued. After a failure the do a reverse split, then find a new disease to aim their cure at and recycle all their releases.
Gary
I believe that unblinding would happen fairly quickly. The clinicians should know who's still alive, and they no doubt would have to have their status confirmed, but the overwhelming majority aren't alive, and all should be known about them with one exception, were they given the vaccine initially, after the placebo, or not at all.
They said they won't receive the data immediately, a contractor will get it all together and once they've done it, the company can review it and prepare the TLD statement. The assumption at the Annual Meeting was it would be done roughly a month after unblinding.
As many seem to think, I believe we'll learn about it sometime between tomorrow and the end of next week. Likewise I believe we'll get the quarterly report during this period, the two could come together.
Gary
Good point, I'm really looking for investment advice, not so much trading. The thing is, at some cases the site that's 100% buy is there at the point of a big drop, and likewise they're 100% sell just before a major gain. In both cases, the cause of the drop or gain may be something investors know about, like a data presentation, a trial about to announce data, an FDA decision, etc.
I believe that someone like Clay would be wise to look at what's known about a stock and factor that in, as well as it's trading patterns. When buyers are fully in control it means little if they receive bad news, and likewise when sellers are in control, and you get good news. That good, and bad news is often anticipated by investors, traders should certainly also be interested, it could be costly if they're not.
I find many of the brokerage analysts to be no better. When they rate a stock a buy with a target of say $10, once their target is reached they often lower the rating to hold while announcing new buy ratings. If a few months later the stock is at $20 they want credit for the gain, they didn't say sell, so their advice was good. I much prefer the analyst that reviews his recommendation when the target is met, and if the upside still looks good, keeps the buy, and raises the target. I used to like Jim McCamant's at MTSL for operating that way, but haven't kept up with it since he left.
We know there are people short here, it's hard to say if they'll try to be out of their positions before TLD is revealed. I believe they're playing with dynamite because of what we've heard from a variety of people, certainly including the lead clinician and developer of the drug. Can they find flaws in the trial that make results imperfect, no doubt, but I don't believe they'll keep the price down as I believe most will see the results as approvable. Of course it generally takes a year or more to go from approvable to approval, but I gather in our case some of the regulators may move faster than that, but probably not our FDA.
The actual act of unblinding the trial is a positive, only because investors will say, after all this time it's finally happened. TLD is certainly what's important, and while shorts will attempt to cast doubt, if many more people are alive then would have been anticipated, there is no denying a major benefit from the vaccine. Nothing is absolutely certain when it comes to the FDA, but eventually drugs that should be approved, are approved, but sometimes they're delayed. I'm not suggesting we'll have such a delay, only that you never know.
Gary
Gary
As the recipient of someone else's stem cells, I can tell you it does make a difference. I really can't say all that may be different, I can't be sure I've discovered them all. I do know that most products that are intended to prevent sunburn tend to make me feel like I'm sunburned without even going into the sun. I've had some other minor skin problems as well that may be related.
The thing is, our placental based drugs have been used for fairly substantial periods of time, and as I see it, what the company says about them appear to be true. Namely, they seem to work without any matching effort at all, and don't appear to have negative side effects of any real substance.
I actually believe in coronavirus they may have some positive side effects that previously weren't considered. I'm speaking of the fact that the disease appears to be attacking multiple organs, and the PLX-PAD cells
appear to be benefitting all these organs, not just the lungs.
Of course we're very early in the trial process, only anecdotal information to date, but it's certainly looking good. I doubt if the day will come when Covid-19 is found, but pneumonia isn't, but as greater amounts of the drug is available, post approval, I believe that they'll ultimately administer it once pneumonia is detected, and before a patient requires hospitalization. The drug may be expensive, but the cost is slight when compared with an extensive hospital stay.
Gary
We'll probably hear from Clay any time that we remain strong, the buyers are in control, and he's right. My criticism of Clay and other sites that recommend buys, hold, or sell is that they only look at the technicals about how it's trading. They fail to look at the why.
I believe the why can be explained with one word, ANTICIPATION.
First we're anticipating data lock, then TLD. After that, and a very serious increase in the share price, it's hard to determine the next major event to be anticipated. It could be a partnership, or the filing of BLA's with the regulators. Ultimately it's approval that's anticipated.
While all this is going on, we do have another product, DCVax-Direct that should get started in a Phase 2 Trial. I believe it has even more to anticipate as it will be tried on multiple different cancers. I frankly believe there is reason to believe that if this trial proves highly successful, approval could be achieved without doing a Phase 3 Trial. Sure it will still take at least a couple years, but what would a vaccine be worth that was found effective against a wide variety of cancers. I would suspect that at some point, perhaps roughly a year into the trial, a peek will be designed into the trial, if the drug isn't part of a partnership before then, what's seen in the peek may be all that's needed for either partnership, or buyout at numbers we can only dream about.
This is not to say that DCVax-L won't work in other cancers, I believe there is some anecdotal information showing it is. Some knowledgeable Doctors may choose to use it off label for their patients and in doing so will add to the anecdotal evidence. Meanwhile, with revenue from vaccine sales, and perhaps a partnership, the company will initiate new trials to add to the label for the vaccine. If this company is not bought out, a triple digit billion dollar market cap, or more, is certainly not out of the question.
I believe if you look how far we've come this year, it's amazing. I only heard about the stock at the very end of last year, purchased it almost immediately after seeing what they were doing.
Just since then they've roughly tripled or quadrupled the number of hospitals using their equipment, as much or more growth in the number of distributors using their fluids, making the fluids, and selling or leasing their products. Finally they consumated an agreement with the U.K. to equip all their healthcare facilities, not just the hospitals, with PCTL sanitizing equipment.
We're just 5 months into the year, the company has probably quadrupled in terms of all aspects of what it's doing, and there is no indication that it's slowing down. If anything, the rate in which distributors are being added seems to be increasing, likewise the number of hospitals in which our systems are installed. And speaking of the system, they've redesigned it to permit rack mounting and greatly reduced the installation time.
Investors are yet to hear about what's occurred financially this year, last year's Annual Report and the first quarter are due any day, but they'll hardly tell the tail. We know March was positive, but we don't know if it overcame losses in January and February, it will be better than prior quarters, but probably not spectacular. The second quarter, the one we're in should certainly be quite positive, the term spectacular may be true at the time, but it will be less spectacular than quarters to follow for the foreseeable future.
To put it simply, this is not the sort of thing you normally see with a company selling for single digit pennies. By the end of the year I'd not be at all surprised to see single digit dollars, and double digit dollars are very possible within a few years from then.
Where will we be tomorrow, no telling, but over an extended period of time we'll just keep moving up over time, sure there will be down days, even weeks, probably not months, though anything is possible, but each year looks like it will be bigger than the past year for the foreseeable future. Of course there are some giants in the industry, it's not impossible that one will make an offer that can't be refused. I just hope they refuse to look an anything under multiple, and preferably double digit billions.
Gary
I'm a believer that this company could grow to several dollars over a few years, I would hate to see it purchased for anything less. I believe that the third quarter financials will show how rapidly the company is growing, second quarter will be the first positive quarter, but growth for the remainder of the year as many units go into U.S. and U.K. hospitals and other industries will show far more in the third quarter and Annual Report which won't be seen until late February or early March next year if they're on time.
I would hate to see the company bought out for under a few billion dollars, but if it isn't bought out I believe it could grow to more than that, but might take a few years to do so. JMHO
Gary
Several years ago I was invested in a company that went on a Russell listing. The day it was added, millions of shares went to Institutions that had to cover the index, by their charter, after hours. When the next report of shorts was released, the number of shares short went up by millions. One year later the stock came off the Russell, once again after hours millions of shares moved, and in the next short report the number of shares short came down by essentially the same number.
I believe the MM's had managed to hold that short position for the entire year, whether it's legal or not, it was clear in the reports that a large short position was maintained for the entire period the stock was on the Russell. There may be laws saying it isn't legal, but I have a feeling that it's not for any of us, but the MM's can do practically anything they wish and get away with it.
In speaking with my broker at the time he indicated that when a stock is being added to the Russell, the brokers working with the Institutions are supposed to be accumulating the share the Institutions need, with the reverse occuring when they're removed. In short, the MM's can control prices by making shares by being short to meet demands, rather than letting demand move the market up, and likewise eliminate the short and support the price by eliminating the short position when they have more sellers than buyers without dropping the price. It's actually the reason MM's are justified, but I believe they're supposed to smooth things out, not maintain short positions for a year or more to meet an immediate demand.
When data is unblinded, if the demand for the stock is great, the MM's can slow the share price growth by going short, but in doing so they'd be risking that the price doesn't come down to the point that they can purchase the shares at a profit. It's not something they'll do initially, but if they believe the news is worth a share price of say $2, and if the price hit $5, they might very well sell short at or near $5 in the belief that when the dust settles it will come back to $2.
Of course the MM's could be wrong, if the price closed at $5 and the following day a partnership was announced that took it to $10, they could be hurting. No doubt the MM's know more than we do, but they don't always know everything, and sometimes they too get burned.
Gary
This is no pump and dump, the upside potential is we're effective with Covid-19 is tremendous, but even if that fails to materialize, the other trials are headed for approval in time and the company will gain that multi-billion dollar market cap when more data demonstrates they're certain of gaining approval.
Gary
I think this morning's trading was a healthy retracement that should be expected after the recent runup. While it would be nice to close green, I believe that's still the direction we're heading as we approach TLD.
I would think that if the German problem can't be resolved shortly they could issue the quarterly, and revise it once the problem is resolved if the resolution required it.
I do not believe they'll P.R. data lock, I think it may very well have already occurred. I've been involved with biotech's for decades and most have not PR'd data lock, they've said virtually noting prior to suddenly announcing TLD. They did, as NWBO has done, provide guidance as to when TLD should be expected. As a West Coast investor who likes to sleep in, one glimpse at the stock price told me something happened, sometimes good, sometimes bad, but I knew what happened before reading about it.
Gary
I couldn't stand seeing PCTL selling below $.05, virtually below where it was when the U.K. agreement was announced. While I don't like using margin, I did this morning and bought more.
Hopefully we'll get a green close, but regardless, in a few months I believe the few shares I purchased today could be sold for more money than all I have invested in the company. I'm content just to let things unfold as they will in the next several months.
Gary
When people use these figures, it's unclear to me how much PCTL receives, and how much ACE or others distributing the products receive on each lease or sale. I certainly don't believe either receives all the money, though if PCTL sold the units to ACE, then ACE leased them, then ACE would be entitled to everything, but of course PCTL would have been paid for the unit.
I believe that ACE and the other distributors are essentially functioning as a sales and service force that utilize PCTL's, and perhaps others products, and both companies share in sales, leases, or product used when sanitizing a customers site. The precise figures may vary from one distributor to another, and I doubt very much if we'll be given the precise figures for each of them.
Gary
We all know that Annual and First Quarter results are not positive, nothing that's in them should surprise investors, but other than the forecasts which should be quite positive, the financials themself are negative. That said, the old fashioned wisdom it that the best time to issue bad news is on Friday, after the bell, and the best Friday is one that's tied to a holiday. This Friday happens to be one of those.
I think that not having these reports out is holding the stock down, but I cannot say that they didn't make a decision to put them out after the bell on Friday. We'll see if that's the case shortly, but hopefully the report for the second quarter, which should be very positive, won't be delayed, so hopefully we'll see it by early August.
Gary
As a kid we used to frequently go up to Lake Arrowhead, back then if you looked out, on most days you could just see the smog. Things have improved dramatically in that way. They still have a long way to go, but it's amazing how quickly things in China etc. cleared up when the covid-19 hit and little industrial work was being done. Some of the shots taken from space show a tremendous difference.
It shows what we could do if we concentrate on clean power, much has to do with how we generate electricity, which in China comes largely from coal. They probably make much of the solar panels for the world, but they build the with energy coming from coal fired generators.
Imagine what we could do with solar powering most homes and charging most of our electric cars.
I haven't been to Arrowhead in decades, we have a place in Tahoe and while it's a much longer drive, I love it there. In addition to the beauty, they have casinos. Reno and Carson City have practically all the stores that can be found in L.A. if something is needed that can't be found at the lake.
Gary
I certainly cannot say how the equipment works, but I have a feeling that once it's set up to produce a batch of HOCL the operator can be doing other things while that's happening. If anyone knows I'm wrong, please correct me. Keeping it running 24/7 means people are working, but if they're busy doing other things as well, all their time shouldn't be considered a cost of making fluid.
Many years ago I took a course for the Navy that worked on task simplification. Frankly we looked at things that looked fairly efficient that were being done by say 5 people full time. By the time we broke it down and put it back together, 3 people working part time could do it, and all felt more productive. I don't know that's the case here, but I'd be surprised if the big HOCL generators aren't pretty automated.
Perhaps some of those who visit the company can tell us more about how they operate.
Gary
You have a point, but that's why people with health issues are most vulnerable to it. If you do have a heart condition, then you get covid-19, it may be a heart attack that kills you, but did it happen because of the burden covid-19 put on your body.
People with cancers and a variety of other diseases pass on because of pneumonia, or ARDS seems to be the newest expression for it. The question is, did the cancer etc. kill them, or was it the pneumonia. If we can cure pneumonia with PLX-PAD I suspect the death rate for many diseases will diminish, though eventually all will die.
I've been outspoken about having leukemia, but not everyone is like me. I recently attended the funeral of someone I've known for several years, sailed with, but never knew he too was fighting leukemia. Ultimately pneumonia took his life, but his wife was sure it was because he'd been weakened by the leukemia which was in remission. The reality is, covid-19 does kill many who're in poor health, elderly, overweight, etc. The point is, without covid-19 most of these people would still be alive. You can say it's an overcount, but the deaths are real.
There are many younger people dying as well, many are Doctors and nurses who're dealing with patients every day, many others as well are not unhealthy by most definitions, yet they're dying. Many who recover have been weakened for months, and it's uncertain that some may not have permanent damage to certain organs. You can try to ignore these facts, and perhaps if you get it, it will be a mild case, but if it isn't and you survive, you'll realize how bad a disease it is.
I would hope that PLX-PAD is found to be a drug which should be administered as soon as pneumonia is detected to avoid the organ damage that may occur if the case advances further. It's like taking something when you have a mild fever to hopefully prevent the need for something stronger if you let it rise without doing anything.
During my recovery from stem cells I learned what a tenth of a degree temperature rise could cause. On at least a few occasions I'd had up to 100.3, it seemed to be of little concern. One day I hit 100.4, the next thing I knew they were doing all sorts of things, including X-rays, blood samples, etc until the infection was identified, and the proper antibiotic administered. No one had ever said what would happen if the temp went over 100.3, but I certainly learned about it when it happened.
Gary
I really wish I could see where all this hidden financing is going on, but I don't. I believe they announce when they're doing it, and yes, they've done a lot of that. I believe it's important to be known to have sufficient funds to do all that's necessary to both put DCVax-L through the entire approval process, and also proceed with DCVax-Direct initiating it's new trial.
I suspect they may want a partnership, or at least substantially higher price on releasing TLD before they initiate DCVax-Direct's next trial, and yes, if they don't get that partnership they'll probably need to issue shares, but at a significantly higher price. For now, with the covid-19 problems ongoing, initiating a new trial would be difficult at best.
I don't doubt that some people have gotten a great deal on their shares, friends of LP or not. I believe the same can be said for practically any company we can purchase stock in, likewise, people in key positions in the company get stock options that can be quite lucrative. The key to all these people making money, along with us, is success. Sure, some people may trade successfully and make money in a company which fails, but by far more people will make substantially more money when the company succeeds.
I believe the $20 billion price indicated by investors as the minimum LP would want to sell the company is very possible with success with the vaccines. I don't believe both would need to be approved, but suspect that if DCVax-Direct produced solid Phase 2 data in multiple cancers, perhaps in an interim review of the trial, that sort of value could be seen. I would suspect this is possible by the end of next year if the DCVax-Direct trial is underway by the end of this year. DCVax-L should be approved before then.
Frankly, I doubt if anyone here would turn down half of LP's price, though I'm not encouraging it. Frankly, if DCVax-Direct is working in multiple cancers, I think $20 billion is too low. In fact, I believe over time the company could have triple digit billion dollar potential, but it could take a decade to do it.
Gary