When I see people estimating the future share price based on the market potential, all that I've seen are based on treating GBM. Please correct me if I'm wrong, I believe that I've read that over the years the company has permitted the vaccine to be used on a compassionate use bases in other cancers and the patients improved, or actually were cured. I know a one person, or even a few person test is not sufficient to consider for approval, but I would expect that once they have approval for GBM they'll initiate trials to broaden the label.
Completing new trials is not nearly as important as seeing what amounts to interim data that's positive. Why? Because if it's positive in certain additional cancers, Doctor's don't have to wait for FDA approval, once the drug is approved for one disease it can be used off label for others.
Some Doctors knowing it's history might do it immediately, especially if they have patients where nothing else is working, essentially it's like compassionate use, but not the company is paid for the drug. Anecdotal evidence will grow, and as it does, more Doctors will try it.
If you consider the above, and believe that at least some of the off label use will prove positive, how would you value the company. Perhaps even more importantly, when DCVax-Direct trials resume, I believe they'll be done with multiple cancers, again if interim peeks at that trial appear positive in a number of cancers, how does this add.
I believe that those who say this company could grow to a market cap going into triple digit billions are right, but only if further trials actually prove that many cancers benefit from the use of both drugs. It's not to say the vaccines by themselves are curative, but rather that patients benefit from their use. Perhaps in combinations with other therapies you achieve a cure, perhaps people just live substantially longer.
This Thanksgiving I'll be 7 years post diagnosis of leukemia, I'm currently 5 years post stem cell transplant. I wish I could say I was cured, but I remain on chemo as my Dr. still believes it's the best insurance against it reoccurring. If I dropped the chemo, the odds would still be about 70% on my side that it wouldn't come back, I certainly don't like the side effects, but I'd rather accept them then face what I'd have to if it did come back.
As I understand the side effects of our vaccine, they're tiny by comparison to what people experience with most other forms of treatment. Even if cures are unobtainable, if life extensions of years and good quality of life is the result for a fair percentage, and it proves to work for many cancers, I believe the earnings will certainly go into double, and perhaps even triple digit billions over time, you can pick the P/E you believe is reasonable to arrive at what the stock price could be at that time. Of course if the company is bought out, the price ends at the buyout price, but if it's partnered, even if the partner effectively has control, it's unlimited as to how high it may go. I like the partnership because with it, essentially immediately, the company would have the financial resources to initiate new trials, they wouldn't need to wait for earnings to do so, or greater dilution.
Gary
