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If I could ask Gary to change something about how he operates, it would be to be less certain of getting reports out on time. I think he's making the right moves in terms of producing both more units and more fluids, likewise they're signing up new distributors all the time, you could hardly ask for anything more. Just don't be so certain we'll get the 10-K or Q done on time, and then fail to do so.
Hopefully we'll get one of the reports this week, perhaps both, while it hardly matter, what does matter is not being considered delinquent, so purchasing the stock isn't permitted in certain brokerages. That ultimately hurts the price, as you can sell at these brokerages, but you cannot purchase. That certainly affects the share price as prices are likely to be lower when buyers cannot purchase.
I'm not certain, but I suspect that delinquency won't occur for awhile, but I don't know that we can delay until the end of June without being in that status.
Gary
I wonder how many people are like me, I'll skim over the quarterlies and Annual Report, far more interested in seeing what the company has to say about where things currently stand and plans for the future than what's in all the financials they post. The thing I'm least interested in is all the machinations they must legally include that give the history of things they 've done over the years, nor do I pay any real attention to all the warnings they're giving me about the risks of owning stocks.
I believe the SEC has gone overboard to insist that all this crap must be included in the filings, I'd much rather see companies keep all this information in their website, and just refer people to all of it. I much prefer what these reports looked like when I was a kid, many years ago, when an annual report was something where most of it delved into what the company was doing, essentially it was a commercial for the company, but the Govt. has said all the bad must be included, so you have to search for the good.
Does anyone here read these reports cover to cover? I suspect it's no more than 1% of investors. I'll skim the document, but really read very little of it. I suspect many don't even look at it, yet it's issuance is a key to the future. Many so called analysts seem to be interested in one, and only one thing, did they meet, beat, or miss earnings. In some cases I've seen a biotech say, we're curing a form of cancer, but we missed earnings, all agencies like Reuter's had to say was, big earnings miss by XXXX, the cancer trial was ignored.
Personally I'm far less concerned about meeting or beating expectations as I am of what they're planning and forecasting for the future. I wonder how may are looking at it much as I do, rather than all the garbage I believe the SEC forces them to include.
Gary
Falon,
We need to realize some hospitals may take more than one unit, so it may not be 25 more hospitals. But we also need to realize that with rack mounting, it's much faster to install each unit. I believe it's clear that even in the pandemic, you can get almost anything to where you want, just ask Amazon if you don't know how. It's still unclear to me if units for the U.K. agreement will be made here, or if production is being set up in Europe. Todays release tells us it's moving forward, but it's filling in few of the details, but we'll get them in time.
Gary made it sound like 25 units a month was the starting point, and 40% more beyond that, 40% of 25 is 10, so that would be 35 units in August, if he's serious about 40% growth month over month, 40% of 35 would be 14, so in September it would be 49 units. I'm not certain that's what he meant, but that would be 40% growth month over month. It wouldn't be that long before we were looking at over 100 units a month. It's certainly possible, but I think they'd need to greatly expand their production facility.
Gary
We now know they've formalized the agreement, hopefully it won't be long before we get some of the details of it. They specified that 5 additional European Govts. are being included, but which 5, it makes a big difference. Per Google their are 44 nations in Europe, Russia is actually the largest and the Holy See is the smallest, which ones are in the deal make a big difference.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if additional countries could be added as more of them recognize the benefits achieved by using our devices.
I doubt if further details will come in the 10-K or Q when issued, but sometime in the next few weeks I'll hope we get the details. I believe when we do, the price of the stock will move up dramatically.
Gary
When I saw news I was hoping for the 10-Q and/or announcement of the unblinding, but I believe the news was just straightening out what they did before, when they extended the warrants. Why it wasn't done when it was announced that LP's warrants were extended, I don't know, but it may have been something they needed to do before releasing the 10-Q.
I'm still hoping that ASCO figures into their plan. Sunday's the last day of this virtual ASCO, so if they're saying something, they should be able to release it no later than Monday.
Gary
Wait until we get the data on the additional 10 patients who received the drug under compassionate use. If that data is as strong as what was achieved by the first 8, no telling how high we'll go.
Investors need to realize that company's don't do trials, they sponsor them, but clinicians do them. The company is sponsoring a Phase 2 trial for Covid-19, the clinicians will get the trial underway as soon as they've satisfied all involved that they're ready. Typically the IRB's where the trial is being run can take months to finalize the trial protocol, that shouldn't be the case here, but practically nothing happens as quickly as investors believe it should when it comes to drug trials.
To me, Germany is the biggest question. Did they start under compassionate use some time ago, when the company announced the relationship, which could lead to data any day, or are the part of the Phase 2, and about to get underway. I'm certainly hoping they're well into a small trial, but I certainly don't know.
Gary
Trump may find that he can't do that if Congress appropriates the funds. The money may not be spent, but unless Congress is willing to agree to it being distributed to others, it might just go back to the treasury.
There is no doubt in my mind that the WHO needs to changed, but that will happen, we would be foolish to be completely out of that organization.
Gary
I don't believe she said that, I believe it was more of an inference as to the timing of the whole process. If I'm wrong, please correct me.
We're now into ASCO, it's virtual, but if there is an experts forum, and if the company presents there, announcing the trial is unblinded could be part of that, and it still would be in May, even if not a stock trading day. I don't know it's happening, but believe it could be. I think we'll know by Monday.
Gary
I certainly hope you get your birthday wish, and let me be the first to wish you a Happy Birthday, but don't be too disappointed if the company makes it a belated present, it will still be a beautiful thing, even if it comes late.
Gary
Hard to say if brokerages, like Fidelity, won't permit trading until the 10-K is filed. I've often felt these documents are overly burdensome on companies, but companies do know what's needed, and it's there responsibility to deliver. Clearly PCTL has room for improvement here.
That said, I believe the remainder of what they're saying is quite positive. We've all questioned what's coming out of the U.K. agreement, we know the company will profit, but it's unclear how much, that will shortly be clarified.
If this were a Nasdaq trading stock, I'd be concerned about the weakness of the accounting, it's not, it's a Pink, more importantly, until recently it has been cash starver. Now it's beginning to prosper, but it's taking time to come up to speed, especially in the Covid-19 environment we're living in. I respect the company for releasing the news mid day, rather than dumping it after the close, certainly it combined the good, with the bad, but many companies would have simply waited, and dumped it out after the close. I'm not overly concerned about it, but will be concerned if brokerages restrict the ability to purchase again, though I did all the purchasing I intend to earlier this week.
Gary
I would still expect the 10-Q after the close today, whether data lock is reported, or not. I do not know that the company is presenting in a virtual Expert's Forum, at a virtual ASCO, but if so, that's when it may be announced, and after the presentation it could be released on a PR with a link to the spoken presentation. If I'm right, Monday should be a great day.
I think today's trading is overreacting to anticipation of an announcement today. The target of TLD by late June, early July doesn't change one iota whether data lock is announced today, or any day next week, if it goes beyond that, perhaps the anticipated date may change slightly, but what's import is, it's happening. Does it really matter to anyone here if TLD is announced before, or after July 4th.
I still believe that our share price will be somewhere between $.50 and $1 prior to TLD being announced. As for when, it's at least 3 weeks away, probably more, but probably not more than 7 weeks, i.e. mid July. If it's going to be later than that the company should announce it.
Give it time, we'll be well rewarded.
Gary
I agree, I expect it after the bell. I also believe that neither the 10-K or Q that should come shortly as well reflect all the growth the company has been experiencing, at least not in the financials. The CEO may discuss this growth in the report, they can forecast it for the remainder of the year, but the actual data will only reflect the period in question.
Hopefully, they'll try to be on time for the second quarter, which could be submitted by the end of July. Certainly they don't have to, they can be later, and if Covid-19 rules still apply, they can be much later, but if they're on time, no telling how much the stock will move on the documented earnings.
I still believe that as good as second quarter should be, third and fourth quarter will be substantially better, and 2021 will be substantially better than 2020 as well. I believe the company will continue to provide very positive guidance, but what's more important is that the reality will show that management is giving it to us straight as their forecasts become fact.
Gary
While we all know the company is tight on funds, TLD should bring in substantially higher stock prices if it's all we expect it to be. I would much prefer selling one million shares for a few million dollars than selling several million shares for a million dollars, that's the difference between where they've been, and where they're going.
Certainly, if they agree on a partner, no dilutive shares may be needed, but the partner may very possibly take a position in the company at a substantially higher price than the stock is selling for at that time. It's very possible that say a 20% position taken by the partner could be made up by new shares bringing in substantial funds for 10% of the company and investors tindering their shares for the other 10%. As I say, it would be at a premium to the current price, but should establish what the stock will be trading for shortly.
The good news is, as I understand it, approval won't be held up by manufacturing as the company has relationships with company that have that capability in approved facilities already. On more than one occasion approvals have been held up for great drugs because manufacturing capability didn't meet FDA requirements.
My point is that in spite of being cash starved, NWBO has a variety of paths to approval, and post approval supplying the vaccine to those needing it should not be a problem. In a matter of months NWBO could go from cash starved to swimming in cash. The drug has blockbuster potential in GBM alone, but it may be equally or even more effective against other solid cancers.
Gary
Lorie,
You're correct, the only way unblinding would be a material event would be if it was a milestone in a partnership, and money was being received for achieving it. That said, Dave Innes, the company's IR person has told investors the company would announce it, so while they legally may not have to, they're saying they will.
I still believe it could be announced in the financials they should be releasing any day, hopefully tomorrow. It's really not that important what day it happens, or what day TLD occurs, what's import is that they are both occurring.
Gary
I recently read where the Motley Fool and another source indicated the trial was unblinding because a certain number of events had occurred. I know many trials are based on unblinding when a specific number of events occur, but I would certainly hope that wasn't the case here. Why? Because that's to say that if a drug is really effective and dramatically delays death, we must delay approval, as the criteria is XX many must die.
It may very well have been something like this in the beginning, or even so many progressing, but I would hope that in discussions with the regulators it was agreed the trial would end at some point, perhaps a specific number of months after the last patient enrolled in the trial.
I believe the company made the decision to show the long tail, demonstrate the tremendous benefit to a substantial number of patients, even if the trial failed to provide some small benefit to a larger group of patients, that's purely supposition on my part. I think we'll all be impressed when we hear about how many are alive, as well as the numbers who did pass away, but did so after 4, 5, 6 years or more, well beyond what was expected with the SOC in GBM.
Gary
It's true that a lot of older people are dying, I'm certainly a senior, but the only one I know who's passed on is a friend of my daughter who's much younger. There have been untold numbers of reports of healthcare professionals who've also been killed, most of them are younger as well. My point is that those who feel this is an old age disease are wrong, and the younger people who party as though nothing is wrong are not just threatening themselves, they're threatening everyone they may come in contact with, including us.
No doubt, people living in nursing homes are already very fragile, if they weren't they probably wouldn't be living there, so yes, many of them, and staff there do die, and yes, most of the elderly there had only a few years at most left. That's no excuse for leaving them improperly protected.
The real problem is the curve isn't coming down the way that all the predictions showed. Communities are opening up, and places that had adequate hospital facilities are running out of rooms. If opening up to allow the economy to rebuild itself is the idea, doing it too quickly and causing it to shut down again for months will prove worse than if they were slower in opening it up. I believe California had it about right, in least in what was supposed to happen, but people aren't complying with the guidance, and while it may not go out of control, the curve won't be coming down nearly as quickly as it would if they did, and yes, more people will die because of it, and some of them my be the youthful violators, but some will be their parents, grandparents, or friends following guidance who encounter them.
We had a Black Lives Matter protest here in L.A. While I understand the cause, I'm sorry they didn't do it right as I very much expect that some who attended will end up being infected. No telling how many they'll infect. It was a big protest, they probably would have covered several blocks if maintaining 6 feet, and while many wore masks, many didn't. My point is that even a protest can be done safely, but this one wasn't.
Gary
I wish I could say when PCTL will hit a dime, I can't, a quarter, I can't, but a dollar may be an entirely different issue. I believe that third quarter results, which if they're on time come in November could do it, and if not the Annual Report, which won't be due till late February, if it's on time in the normal schedule, will certainly have the earnings necessary to justify a dollar, perhaps substantially more than that.
The dime will come in good time, as will the quarter, I expect the two financials due any day may be the catalysts for a move up. The key is, this company is growing at an unbelievably rate. Every time we turn around we learn of a new distributor, a new hospital or something else that is either using our fluids, our devices, or both. Just look at every one of these as profit centers, the company profits, as do the owners of the distributorship, and a lot of people are being employed, and those numbers will build much bigger as more of the country opens up.
Last year, if you asked most restaurants, gyms, theaters, etc what they were doing to sanitize, most would have nothing more than household cleaners that may have been used to wipe down a small percentage of all the surfaces in the space. Look today and you see at least sprayers, but the smart ones are using electrostatic ones. They're not spraying the products they used to wipe up with, they're using HOCL unless the room can air out for hours, and even then it creates problems.
Of course the developers of our equipment couldn't have known that we'd have a pandemic now. Whatever PCTL offered them, they accepted. Now they must live with their decision.
Gary
I'm certainly no expert, but when I first heard of the company I read that they didn't invent the terminology, they purchased it. I liked what I saw and read. Now it sounds like the people who invented the devices believe they can continue to make them, after selling the rights to someone else. I don't believe that will fly in any court.
I cannot say why when they owned the rights they couldn't make a go of it, certainly Covid-19 may have increased demand, but I purchased before anyone heard of a pandemic coming, and I liked what I saw then. With the pandemic it's hard to deny the opportunity has increased, but frankly it's also hard to do business with all sorts of things being locked down.
I have no idea what the terms of the purchase were, I don't know if the inventors continue to be paid in any way as units are sold, or if they have absolutely no involvement. Whatever the agreement, it was something they accepted, unless it was clear that they too could build the device, they're in violation of the agreement if they're attempting to do so.
Gary
Most biotechs, and many other companies that are starting from scratch and do an IPO very rarely get sufficient funding to go all the way to making profits without further fundraising. In many cases, biotech's need hundreds of millions to perhaps over a billion before their first drug is approved. Many of them take decades to even get a drug approaching approval, and they often fail.
In order to remain in business, these companies often do some rather bizarre financing, they do reverse splits, in many cases the CEO's become hated because they're doing whatever they deem necessary to keep the company alive.
The good news is that even if the accumulated debt goes into the billions, one single approved drug can bring in that much in profit in a few years, or less. I believe in NWBO's case, both vaccines have blockbuster (One billion dollar a year) potential in GBM, but we know that they potentially can treat many cancers. In reality, decades worth of debt can be recouped in a couple years and the company can be highly profitable if they stopped developing new products, but they will, so at least some of that profit will be spent in new product development, even more will be spent in trials that expand the use, or at least the labeling for the drug, as once approved off label use will come on it's own as anecdotal evidence builds about it's effectiveness. To put it another way, once approved, we'll just keep building the profit potential.
Gary
More financing. I cannot blame LP from taking money where she can get it in a non dilutive manner, we're still nearly a year from approval and it costs money to not only get there, but also to hopefully get the DCVax-Direct trial underway.
Eventually their may be dilutive funding, but it should be at substantially higher prices, if in the interim period between TLD and approval we don't have a partnership that takes care of funding for the foreseeable future.
Gary
I'd suspect that if both are ready, they may combine the two and announce unblinding the trial in the 10-Q. If they do, I would believe it was something they decided to do, and the actual unblinding may have been days ago. We'll never really know the full story, only what they're willing to say.
I see either, or both these events as positive, and I believe the stock will again be advancing toward somewhere between $.50 and $1 or more before we get TLD.
Personally if I sell anything, it will be out of Roth IRA's where if I believe the stock is overpriced I'll sell and buy more shares when it corrects. I don't often trade, but in the Roth IRA there are no tax consequences, so if I can add shares with no tax considerations, I'll probably act. Stocks frequently retrench 50% of the gain, without seeing the data I doubt if over a $2 gain will hold indefinitely, but perhaps the data will warrant even more, time will tell.
Gary
I did just that today, as I set a GTC order in yesterday at $.05 and it hit at the low of the day. I really thought my initial position would be all I'd be purchasing, but now I have double that. I think it's enough.
Gary
When I see people debating the importance of gaps I find it disturbing that no one is concerned about gaps that exist for ages on the down side. I wasn't an investor back then, but understand there are big gaps somewhere in the multi dollar range. I can't be concerned about a few tents, or even pennies gaps on the upside, when far more than that apparently occurred on the downside years ago. I don't believe all gaps fill, many do, but some never do. I do believe that eventually we'll fill the downside gaps of the past, not because they're gaps, but because the stock will rise back to double digit dollars, and frankly I believe we'll get a huge gap when TLD is announced.
As for today's trading, a little retrenching had to be expected at some point, it would be really positive if we've gotten over it, and close green, but whether we do, or not the trend is still upward and I believe will stay there while we're anticipating TLD. It will just be the start of the upward trend if TLD is a strong as most here believe it is.
Gary
Thanks, I had registered yesterday, and hadn't gotten the email, I went back to bed. Did anyone listen, if so, anything new to add to what we've heard about.
Gary
Anyone have a link to today's webinar.
I was of the belief that the BLA submitted to the FDA would provide what was needed by all the other regulators. I really don't know much about other agencies, do they each have different requirements. I know many drugs have been approved outside the U.S. frequently years before U.S. approval, which often requires additional testing.
Gary
Can it be stored in ambient temperatures indefinitely, or cryogenically with a limited shelf life when brought up to temp.
Thanks,
Gary
There are many things that we don't know all the details about, like the specifics of the U.K agreement, o r the agreements with all sort of organizations distributing PCTL's products and fluids. What do we know? We know that all of these things are intended to make money for PCTL, and frankly, that should be all we need to know.
No company provides all the specific of all they do. I know they'll be making money on every gallon of fluid they sell, and likewise for each device, regardless of its size, where it's to be used, or its function. It doesn't matter to me if the fluid is used to sanitize a hospital, gym, restaurant, etc or increase petroleum or agricultural production, it all will pay the company.
I would hope that the hospital's where I might end up if hospitalized would have them, but I'm happy with each hospital that's equipped with them. All other applications for that matter. I know that we don't supply everything, if we're supplying the fluid, and the sprayer, electrostatic or otherwise is someone else's, that's fine, we aren't marketing small electrostatic sprayers, at least not yet, to my knowledge.
In short, the potential here is tremendous, we don't need to sell everything to be tremendously successful, we just need our piece of the pie.
Gary
Do you realize that if we were to average $.038 a day between now and when TLD is anticipated we'd be over $1 by the time it hits. I for one would be fine with that.
I would expect that we'll have some down days over the next month, but as long as we're up overall we should be in great shape when TLD is revealed. I expect that by Friday we'll see quarterly results, and we may learn the trial has been unblinded, I see both these things as positives, even though we know they're certain of happening in time.
I'm hoping that Covid-19 will be tapering off, but I'm not encouraged by the pictures of too many people crammed together, most not wearing masks at recreational places. It's mostly young people violating the guidelines, and I don't believe the authorities have done much more than letting the politicians appeal for compliance. It might get more serious if it cost violators money for non compliance if it's flagrant, I suppose that all would need to carry ID's, otherwise how could authorities issue tickets.
I don't believe things here in California were as bad as some places I've seen, but I know of parties on boats where people were clearly packed in without masks. It's sad, but one person who's infectious can infect hundreds indirectly, as by the time any contact tracing is done virtually hundreds or more have been exposed, and many acquire the infection. As of this date I'm only aware of one person that my daughter knew who's passed on, she was young, so youth is no guarantee that you can beat it if you get it.
Gary
I know handling liquid nitrogen isn't that hard, but I doubt if most pharmacies have the capability. I would think most hospitals do, so I would expect PLX-PAD to be administered in hospitals, but if it's given on determination of pneumonia, not only to people on ventilators, the less severe patients may be treated, and releases in perhaps an hour or less.
Many years ago I was involved with some rather interesting pipe fittings that actually were expanded under cryogenic conditions. When they warmed they clamped down on the pipe with such force that the joint was quite permanent, but you only had seconds to position both ends of the pipe in the fitting. It was interesting, but we seldomly used it.
My stem cells were cryogenically preserved, and it was actually the preservative that required a hickman catheter, which is larger diameter, as the preservative wouldn't pass through a normal one.
As I understand it, PSTI has a special device for administering the drug, when I had stem cells they simply used a water bath to bring them up to temperature, it was purely administered by a nurse, my Dr. didn't see me until some times later.
I don't believe that PSTI can turn their drugs into something which can be taken by pills, it must be given by shot out of cryogenic storage. It's not a problem for those who do it, but with rare exceptions, it won't be done in most Doctors offices. The patient won't need to be hospitalized just for the injection, but many to get it will have been hospitalized.
Gary
I believe the financials getting out will get us out of that mud, but while we're in it I'm trying to purchase some more shares if it dips to $.05 or less again. Willing to give it more time, but believe that at least one of the two overdue financial reports will be out this week, and then we should be good to go.
I'll speculate that after the financials are out Gary will probably do another podcast to discuss both what's in the financials, and all that's been happening since. I believe it will be very positive.
Gary
Any idea if this patent is a new application of one of the current drugs, or is it for something that's newly created, which we should learn about.
Thanks,
Gary
As most here know, I'm a stem cell recipient. In harvesting stem cells from the blood, something called Granulocyte Colony Stimulating Factor, GCSF, is used prior to harvesting the cells. I wonder if any thought has been given to giving that drug for Covid-19 or other diseases where the additional stem cells circulating in the blood might actual seek out and provide benefits to areas having problems. I'm not saying it works, just questioning if it might, and if it's ever been tried.
I believe that if my own stem cells were to be harvested, the same procedure would be used. It wasn't possible with the form of leukemia I had, but I know in several other forms it can be done. The benefit is tremendous if it's done that way as rejection isn't a problem at all. I had a 12 point match, which is essentially as good as it gets, but even with that there are concerns, and I've learned I'm allergic to products I used to be fine with, like most sun tan screening products.
Gary
Actually I question the idea of recouping your original investment if you don't have a better stock to put the money into. I know lots of people who'll sell half their stock when the price doubles, essentially owning it for free. If the stock grows to ten times what they paid, they'd have had double profit on not having sold, and if they wanted their initial investment back, they could sell 10% and get it.
I haven't made a fortune, still looking to, but for a company like NWBO, as long as I believe it has explosive potential I won't sell a share. If it does explode to $10, $20 or more, if I needed say $100K, way more than I initially invested, I don't know that I wouldn't take it on margin, which I believe is still tax deductible for interest, rather than selling and having a long term gain. I'm a senior, and I'd love my kids to inherit our stock and property and gain a new bases for it rather than sell, and pay the tax man. Of course to follow that strategy I need that big winner, I believe NWBO and others I hold have that sort of explosive potential.
I have some losers, I hold them till I either want what they're worth to invest in something else, or have no faith they'll return, and I sell them off at the end of the year for the tax loss, but if they take off before I've sold them, I'll hold, or even add, if I believe they've turned around and will make me some money. Some of my cannabis stocks are in that criteria.
Gary
I like that scenario, it's what Roche has done with various companies. Genentech was partly owned by Roche, then acquired, then spun off with Roche maintaining a controlling interest, and currently has been acquired by them, but still operating in a manner that Roche could spin them off again. I believe in each case the shareholders did well, and Roche did very well.
Gary
If you're looking for a covid-19 therapeutic, take a look at PSTI's PLX-PAD, it's going into Phase 2 Trials, but has given it to several ventilator patients and results to data are quite positive. One of the first eight did pass, 6 are out of the hospital. Ten additional patients will be reported on when they hit 28 days, I believe in the next week or so.
This drug has been in development for years, it's patents cover pneumonia, but the Phase 3 Trial is being done for CLI. I'll contend that a more effective use for the drug would be before ventilators are required, perhaps even before hospitalization is, but that's not where trials start. Patients on ventilators have roughly a 20% chance of survival, so even if the 7th patient of the eight fails to make it, 75% survival would be a huge improvement, and we've not heard more about the 7th patient.
In the case of the first American patient, it wasn't administered until his 22nd day on ventilator, he's gone home. I know of at least 4 more here in the U.S. under compassionate use terms, two are in the same hospital that did the first one, they have the drug as they're also participating in the CLI Trial. The drug is stored cryogenically. It's based on placental cells and 20,000 doses can be available from a single placenta. I believe they currently have the capacity to dose all those currently on ventilators, but I'm not certain of that fact.
Gary
I can understand the idea of resistance being established by a prior high, a place in which people purchase, and have been down for some time, and wish to get out and break even. I suspect that's one of the biggest mistake some investors make, it's something I learned before I was a teenager.
My father wanted me to learn something about stock, so he bought me a few shares in a small petroleum company. I followed it as it went down, then after some time it moved upward. It was up substantially when I asked my father about it, he told me that on breaking even he moved it to a fund with a really hot fund manager. You guessed it, it went nowhere but down.
Holding a stock until you're break even, then getting out without at least exploring why it's come back from a big loss is foolish IMHO. If you really have no hope for the stock, get out, take your loss and invest in something you believe in. However, if you've decided to hold, don't bail just because you're even, look at the potential and I believe most of the time you'll see the potential for further gains.
Analysts often do something similar when they make a stock a buy, with a target that's say 25% above the current price. When their target is met quickly they often change the rating to hold, and announce new buy recommendations. When the stock moves up dramatically, they want credit for the gain, after all they told you to hold. They know damn well that investors who really follow them, who don't have infinite funds will sell what they moved to hold, and purchase the new buy, but they'll take credit for the gain. If they were honest in the first place they'd look at why the stock met their target rapidly, and consider raising the target, rather than downgrading from buy to hold. One reason they don't do it is they're working for a brokerage, and the brokerage is making a market for the drug they're moving up to a buy rating.
I for one rarely pay attention to these people, or many of the stock analysis sites, accept out of interest as to what they're saying. In the past I've seen huge gains missed by such sites as stocks that are virtually 100% sell move to 100% buys, and likewise substantial losses when stocks rated 100% buy move to sell. It doesn't always work that way, but I'd rather be the judge, not let others do the judging for me.
In the case of NWBO, it had sell ratings when it was $.17 not that long ago. My biggest criticism of these ratings is they don't look at upcoming events. When it was $.17, we knew the trial would be unblinding in the reasonably near term, why would you sell at a time like that.
Gary
I believe we'll blow through prior resistance this week, especially if we see news during the week, be it the 10-Q or the announcement of trial unblinding, and it could be both. It would be nice to see something before the open tomorrow. Also, it seems to me that the company may still be presenting in an Experts Forum at the Virtual ASCO that begins later this week. I don't know which day it should be expected, but we know they don't have an abstract submission, but they had planned to do a booth there, perhaps there is a virtual booth as well for sponsors, I don't know.
Is there an ASCO member here that has access to the virtual conference that can discuss what's happening there? I really have no idea what influence a virtual ASCO will have on biotechs. In past years, anticipation of ASCO didn't meet expectations, and in some stocks they were called ASCO fiASCO's when the stock fell substantially after the presentations. ASCO concludes on May 31st, so I expect we'll hear something by then.
When the coronavirus threat is eliminated, I really wonder if future conferences, like ASCO, might offer virtual options rather than only offering the full package to those who attend in person. I suspect that the world will be dramatically changed when Covid-19 has completely disappeared.
Gary
I'd say the odds this week are roughly even that we'll see one or both of the events we're expecting near term this week. I'm of course speaking of the 10-Q and unblinding the trial of course, I believe it's possible that unblinding could be established in the 10-Q.
The question may be, how does this effect the stock price. Given the recent price growth, I'm of the believe that TLD will come after the price has grown to somewhere between $.50 and $1. As to where the price will go after TLD is seen, I certainly believe it will be higher, but how much is a function of just how good, or great what's stated is, and how the market accepts it.
I believe the data will assure investors that this is a product that will be approved by the regulators, but when it comes to the U.S. FDA you can never be absolutely certain that it will be approved at the first opportunity to do so. I believe the foreign regulators are more certain, but nothing is sure until it happens.
There will be somewheres between 9 months and 18 months from the time TLD is announced and a BLA can be prepared, and the regulators act. Why so long. In other biotech's I've observed many months were taken in the preparation of a BLA, it often had to do with the facility for manufacturing the commercial product, I believe that's already established, but it's still a complex document. Three months is about the least I've seen for its preparation. After submission the regulators generally get 6 months before they make a determination. That's where the 9 months minimum comes from, the maximum is purely caused by the time the developers have taken. My point is that even in the shortest time, there is still substantial time in which a partnership could occur, and that too would play a major influence on the stock price. I still believe it's very possible that the partnership will come before the BLA is created, and the partner will have much to say about the final draft of the BLA, that would mean a partnership was likely shortly after the TLD is announced.
Gary
When we do our estimates we need to recognize that there is a huge discount for volume when you go from pints to quarts, to gallons, to drugs, and to tanker trucks. For many years I've been in charge of a Monday Night Football barbecue at our club, we've been able to keep our price the same by purchasing much of the food at Costco Commercial. Many people haven't heard of Costco Commercial, there aren't that many of them, but if you're doing a major event, it's worth checking out if there is one of them in your area.
We don't have room in our home refrigerator for things like a gallon of caesar salad dressing, but that gallon costs roughly what a couple of 12 or 16 oz. bottles, and comes from the same maker. I'm sure the same sort of economy of scale issues apply to bulk HOCL vs small container sizes. Many of our distributors, I believe, are purchasing bulk HOCL and bottling it under their own label. The company is paid fair market value for thousands of gallons in bulk containers, and retail customers pay fair value for one gallon bottles. Everyone in the chain profits nicely, but you cannot estimate the profit for the one making it by the tens of thousands of gallons based on the sale price of one gallon. What's important is the cost of making 10,000 gallons, and I believe the profit is still very high when it's sold at a bulk price that's a small percentage of the price of a retail gallon.
I believe that PCTL is rapidly becoming a cash cow as the demand for both the fluids and the equipment they're manufacturing is growing dramatically month over month. I don't believe this demand will stop when coronavirus is stopped as I believe the pandemic has called all our attention to improved sanitation, and it will continue after the pandemic is gone.
I frankly don't know how much fluid a small electrostatic sprayer uses in sanitizing the average restaurant, airliner, or gym, but I suspect that once the owners have invested in the electrostatic precipitator they'll continue to use them. It's possible that as covid-19 goes away, the use might not be as frequently, but they'll be used, and use will still grow, though the rate may be greatest today because of the threat.
HOCL may have been around for many years, but we're still in the infancy of using it for sanitizing with electrostatic sprayers, not because they weren't around, but rather because they just weren't in demand. Now the demand is there. We've known for years that when flying we were at risk of picking up an infection, cruise ships sometimes had diseases run wild during a cruise, and hospitals, ER's, Dr. offices etc were places where you could leave with something you didn't come in with, but you risked it to live a normal life. Now we're trying to get back to normal, but we'll want it to be a safer normal, that's why sanitizing will continue long after covid-19 is gone.
It won't be that long before airlines are filling all the seats again, theater performances and plays are back and filled, but between flights, between performances, just a few minutes will be taken with electrostatic sprayers to assure the site is as safe as it can be. It won't happen for several months, perhaps over a year, but it will happen, and our lives will be better in the future. The key is getting through the present, and it's what PCTL is currently delivering that will help to get us there.
Gary