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Remember, what you're waiting for right now won't reflect what the company's doing today, at least not in the financial data. That data will still be negative. Even the first quarter report, perhaps out shortly after the annual report may show we're closer to break even, but not there yet. All this will change in the second quarter report, but that's not due till about August.
I believe each report can include dialogue that's more up to date, and there I believe the company can say what's happening, they may even be able to give an estimate for earnings in future quarters. Certainly getting the financials out, so we're not on the hook for something that's delinquent is important, but if you want the really great news, wait till you see what it looks like in next years reports.
I can't tell you what the Annual Report for 2020 will look like, but I expect it to show the companies made millions, the question is, will it be single, double, or triple digit millions, I can't say. All I know is that it's growing very rapidly. I suspect by the end of the year the list of hospitals that utilize our systems could be in the hundreds, when I first bought the stock the end of last year it was 8. Every time we hear about a new service company that's working with our products we see a list of additional hospitals being served. I cannot say if each has units, or if the service agent brings in their own units, sanitizes the hospital as necessary, then moves on to another site, which is possible, but as the need for sanitation increases, units will be permanently placed in all but the smallest of hospitals.
I frankly don't know if the company is maintaining a list of all the hospitals that have their units. If they sell 20 new units to ACE, I don't know that ACE gives them a list of where each unit is deployed. People here attempt to keep up with it, but I don't know that the company does, they know how many units they've sold, or leased to their suppliers, but I don't know what is reported back as to where they're deployed.
In many ways, those who provide both goods and services that utilize PCTL equipment are like car dealers. If you're a Ford dealer, you purchase XXX number of cars from Ford, who you sell or lease them to is up to you. Eventually Ford learns who purchased or leased their vehicles, as they must honor the warranty, but I don't know that they're up to the minute on who owns them, or where they go when traded on the used market. We might be very surprised even now if we had a list of every installation.
While we may not know precisely where each unit is deployed, what I do believe we know is that each month they're producing more units, and selling more fluids then ever in the past. Based on the demand for sanitizing, this growth should continue for the foreseeable future. I cannot imagine our stock price not being dramatically higher by next year, and the growth will continue for the foreseeable future unless the company is bought out.
Gary
Out of curiosity, was the $17 billion estimate you used something that was stated before the coronavirus pandemic began. I suspect that if it was, the numbers will grow after the pandemic, the money spent sanitizing virtually everything will grow dramatically, and it won't stop when the pandemic goes away.
Gary
You're right on the money.
I believe that PCTL is growing in so many ways that it won't be long before they'll be wise to form divisions, each to specifically address one area of expertise.
Right now, supporting hospital and healthcare sanitation may have the greatest emphasis, but when we're beyond the pandemic, greater emphasis may be needed in agriculture, petroleum, etc. Any one of these areas by themselves have the potential of generating substantial cash flow. Together this could become a tremendous company with a double or triple digit billion dollar market cap. We are at the infancy of what can be an industrial giant.
Gary
If our drugs work, why worry about competition, if they don't work, it won't matter. I don't see Europe any differently than elsewhere in the world, if the drug works, all the world will want it. The good news is we may be able to support the demand.
Much has been said about our German study, as far as establishing it. Nothing that I'm aware of has been said by the German's who hopefully are doing it. Perhaps tomorrow we'll learn more about that, and/or clinical trials planed to be initiated worldwide.
I also believe more have probably been added under compassionate use, it would be nice to hear what the numbers there are, as well as the status of those on it.
I just saw a report on Remdesiviv and they indicated that it's mortality benefit was noted, but further testing would be required to determine if it was significant. It is far from a cure all, its lowering the length of hospital stays, but clearly it's not the answer that PLX-PAD may be.
Gary
This tells us the method the FDA could employ to approve PLX-PAD or PLX-R18 for use if some testing demonstrated efficacy similar to what was achieved with Remdesivir. It currently is planned only for hospital patients as I understand it, but I would expect that will expand if it continues to show improvement.
Pneumonia is the killer of most who die of coronavirus. Only time will tell, but I suspect that if at onset of pneumonia our drug could be employed, many might never require hospitalization. I previously indicated that I'd like to see two specific trials, one for people already on ventilators, another for those not yet on ventilators, but in hospitals and thought to be approaching ventilators. A third group should perhaps be considered, those diagnosed with both the coronavirus and the onset of pneumonia, but not yet sick enough to hospitalize, it's that group that might never be hospitalized if our drug is successful.
Their still were deaths in the Remdesiviv trial as I understand it. To date I don't believe we've had a death, but we only know of 7 patients. Thing is, those 7 were all on ventilators, and in the case of the U.S. patient, he didn't receive the drug till after 23 days on the ventilator. I believe very few survive after 23 days on a ventilator.
Gary
ASCO presentations are now available on their site. I've found nothing for NWBO but I don't know if there will be an experts forum, as was the case last year where the company spoke.
I frankly didn't expect to find an abstract as without unblinding the trial, I don't know what more they could have presented. Hopefully SNO will be a very different matter.
Gary
I should add that what Governor Cuomo is proposing is equally true for virtually all cities with major mass transportation systems, not just New York, and it should include the busses as well as the trains. We all know the airline industry and cruise lines are very concerned, this applies to all, not just New York. ACE however is ideally positioned to start the ball rolling in New York.
Gary
I think ACE should be having a meeting with the transit authority. Either they could provide the equipment, or they could be contracted to do the sanitizing on a nightly basis. It's a very big job, but I suspect a person with a portable electrostatic sprayer could sanitize a car in under a few minutes each. There are a lot of cars in the New York subway system, what they want to, and should do, is a major effort, it will require a lot of equipment, and people to operate them.
The governor also indicated the authorities needed to move the homeless out of the rail cars and into housing, that too will be a major undertaking.
Gary
We move up and down based on results from others, it's understandable. What we really need to know can only be determined from trials of our product. I'm uncertain if the GILD product is being given to patients on ventilator, it sounds like it's given before, but I'm not certain of that.
As I understand it, by the time a person is on the ventilators, there is a good chance that other organs, not just the lungs have problems. I have no idea if the GILD product has benefits in other organs, but I do believe that PLX-PAD may be of benefit all over the body, not just in the lungs.
Anecdotal evidence may tell us a lot, but the medical community is not going to recognize it until it's tried in a clinical setting. I'm hoping that Thursday morning's announcement will discuss clinical trials, and I hope they're underway, or about to be. If in fact the GILD drug is being given prior to a ventilator being required, I would hope we have one trial that does the same, while another trial is done with people on ventilators.
Ideally treatment prior to requiring ventilators will result in few, if any going on ventilators. Blood clots it's said are becoming a problem, especially in younger people. In that our drug generally promotes blood flow, it may also be the answer to the strokes occurring in coronavirus patients, but often these people don't have symptoms, so they're not identified as having the disease until they have the clot. This is a wicked disease, the only way to really be safe is testing everyone, especially those who believe they're fine.
Gary
I think the question needs to be asked, how many other places like Wuhan exist, and how much do we support the others. I certainly don't know where the disease came from, but I suspect there are many others, including research labs here in the U.S. that could be suspected if near the source of an outbreak. I cannot be against doing research all over the world, but adequate caution needs to be exercised.
I blame the Chinese Govt. for not speaking up when the problem was sensed and thinking they could control it. I just don't know that we can ever be sure whether the lab was involved in any way. Likewise I cannot blame Dr. Fauci from supporting research anywhere in the world where something can be gained in doing it.
If it were up to me, I'd have top researchers from all the worlds top Pharmas and Biotechs working in a Manhattan Project manner to both develop a vaccine, and develop drugs the prevent the deadly effects of the virus. All who participate should share in the rewards. Instead, hardly a week passes that some company isn't highlighted as possibly having the answer, on examination it usually fails, but some people profit nicely from the knowledge of what's being revealed.
As I've previously stated, I believe PSTI may have the answer, not because they've claimed it, but because pneumonia was well covered by their patents, but they hadn't yet gone into the clinic for it. They selected other targets that would be easier to prove, but that was before coronavirus gave them so many pneumonia patients to prove it with.
Gary
There is a desperation in the country that's largely been self inflicted. When the country shut down, all sorts of promises were made to get checks to all but the highest earners in about a week. Unemployment for most who're laid off was supposed to come in right away. Test to tell if you have, or may have previously had coronavirus were supposed to be available to all in a week or two.
I've heard that a few people in red states have received some money, I know none in California yet to get it. In the case of unemployments, back payments will be made, but few have yet routinely received checks. Most receiving tests are either very sick, or had definite contact with people who had it, and many who get it don't get results for a week. In short, people are starting to get desperate because what was promised hasn't been delivered.
Most people still are protecting themselves as intended, but clearly not those at the beach, or those protesting for things to open, and then there is the head of the task force going into a highly infectious hospital ward without protection, as if there is nothing to fear. Certainly Pense can be tested every hour if he wishes, but if he's infected he's just a vulnerable as any of us, and he may infect many others before ever feeling it. I know Trump would have done the same thing, but that doesn't make it right for either of them.
Their was no way we could avoid what's happened, but we certainly could have lessened the threat. To begin with, in January we could have contracted with those companies, or countries where proper tests had been developed to use, or even improve on their technology without errantly reinventing the wheel here, and only thinking we had a few people with it when now we know there were tens, or hundreds of thousands who had it, but didn't know that was what they had. I still have friends who were sick during that time, but don't know if they had it, or not.
In short, this won't be fixed without getting people the funds needed to exist under the conditions being imposed, and hopefully the many small businesses that will be out of business without it. There is a need for time to permit people who cannot save their businesses to save themselves without losing their homes, cars, etc. End the despair and people will be more willing to allow the country to reopen more properly, not so quickly. Here in California I believe for the most part we're doing it right, but in State's that still haven't flattened the curve it can only get worse, even with the curve coming down, until it's practically down to nothing it will rise if things are opened too quickly.
Cities like New York are more vulnerable than most a few can return to a normal life without using public transportation, etc. We really need to stamp this out before a real normal can occur. I hope drugs mitigate the deaths, but it will still be a big hazzard. I have stock in PSTI which may deal with the pneumonia, which is normally the killer, but regardless of where the answer comes from, we need to prevent or do a better job with the pneumonia and keep nearly everyone off ventilators where only a small percentage ultimately survive. New York is one of the most exciting places in the world when things are normal, I look forward to when I can feel safe about going there again.
Gary
Please correct me if what I'm saying is incorrect, but it seems to me the trial is now unblinded to those who've run it. Clinicians are gathering up the data for every patient they enrolled, whether living or dead, and that information will be turned over to the company tasked with organizing it into a report that will finally be provided to the company, then they'll be unblinded.
I would suspect that most everything was known on patients who passed on, but clinicians were asked for an additional bit of data that could be retrieved from what they had, but required further testing. In a world controlled by coronavirus this may be tougher to do than it sounds.
For the living patients, I would believe they'd want a current assessment of their condition. What I don't know is whether this demands to patient be assessed by the clinician, or if an evaluation, perhaps including certain tests can be done by the patients personal Doctors. Either way, some coronavirus related problems can complicate getting this done.
Personally, as long as I'm not having a medical problem, my scheduled medical appointments have all been deferred, some twice, and probably will be a third time. If I were sick, I don't think my personal Dr. would want to see me, rather I'd be instructed to go to an appropriate Urgent Care, or E.R. I frankly don't know what they're doing in most of the Doctor's offices, unless they're largely working in hospitals rather than at their offices.
Perhaps I'm wrong about the depth of knowledge that's needed on all patients who're still alive, please let me know if a new evaluation is going overboard if it's established the patient is still alive. Most of these patients are living well over 5 years, some may have been determined to be cancer free some time ago, but even if that were the case, wouldn't you want that verified as part of unblinding that patients status.
All this certainly can be done over a period of several weeks, but without coronavirus it could probably have been done in a fraction of the time.
Gary
I don't know if the company has additional compassionate use patients, but it would seem like they would, it would also seem like testing in Germany should have started. I don't know that we'll hear any updates prior to the announced Thursday presentation. I wouldn't be surprised if the company's been told not to speak that much about anecdotal evidence of efficacy by American authorities, get a clinical trial going and discuss that.
I believe that Israel, on the other hand, will be open about what's happening there, and if in fact several more people are receiving our drug under compassionate use, it will be reported by the Israeli media. I suspect that whatever actions the German's are taking are structured like a clinical trial, even if no paperwork has been filed. I look forward to when we get information from Germany.
As I understand it, if Interim CLI results are considered sufficiently positive, some regulators have indicate they could approve based on them. Such an approval would establish a basis for off label use of the drug for coronavirus.
Gary
I believe that many people feel similar to how I do. Namely I've had a sore throat sustained for a week, other minor things as well, but nothing serious, I have no idea if I'd test positive, or negative. From what I've heard, even the blood based tests aren't that accurate, but I would be happy to be tested if my Doctors believed in the test being run.
Meanwhile, all existing medical appointments have been put off, they're certainly not mandatory, so I don't mind, I just hope that by the time I finally do see a Dr. there will be a trusted test to say if I've had the disease, or not.
As a senior who's immune compromised I may be able to request a test, but frankly wouldn't want to be in line, possibly for hours, to get a nasal swab, etc. I don't believe I'd be positive today, the question is, do I have something in my blood that says I've already had it.
Gary
A CEO can lose credibility if too many updates are forthcoming that don't deal with financial facts. Certainly new distribution agreements should be announced, but if Gary comes out and simply states our production is the greatest it's ever been, which may truly be the case, people like the SEC frown on it as hype.
I believe something is paid to be on the blogs that Gary has been on, and as long as it isn't too frequent, the SEC won't act, but in another company I know a CEO was penalized for what he was doing on the internet.
I would hope the company can establish a West Coast distributor, and there are no doubt other areas where the company doesn't have distributors as well. Unless the company wishes to sell direct in these areas, I would hope that distributorships are established in the near future.
I believe it would be beneficial to investors if the company had a U.S. map with the areas covered by existing distributors shown, ideally each distributor could be shown in a different color. That would clearly show where no distribution exists, other than directly from the company, and it would also show where opportunity exists for companies in the areas that currently have no representation. If such a map were created, something could also be used to indicate each hospital that currently is using our system. Updating such a map should show the way the company's growing.
Gary
Today we traded at levels below where we were when the U.K. agreement was announced, clearly we're greatly undervalued, and as more becomes know, we'll see substantially higher prices. It won't be until third quarter results are reported that we see the big burst in earnings, though second quarter should show some profits. By the years end it should be clear to all that money is rolling into the company, and the stock price will reflect it.
For now, I can't say who's manipulating the stock, but I clearly believe that's what's happening. They can only hold it down so long, then it will become clear that this may be one of America's fastest growing companies.
Gary
There is little doubt in my mind that covid-19 has accelerated the growth of the company as people are becoming far more concerned with sanitizing, but this was an idea who's time had come, even without it.
As someone who's twice had catheters infected in two different hospitals who strive to maintain cleanliness, I know they need more than they have today. I believe that the company's products can greatly improve this in hospitals and many other places, but nothing is 100% certain.
Anyone entering a hospital can bring something with them, and regardless of how thorough sanitizing may be, it can avoid treatment for the unlucky person that it's transferred to whether it does, or doesn't infect the one who brought it.
Gary
I really wish I could say with certainty that this will be an up week, I suppose my advice would be ignore the week, even the month, by the end of the year, I believe you'll be seeing at least $1, perhaps more as income is rapidly rising, and it will be divulged, along with a lot more hospitals and other places we or contractors that use our equipment are serving.
Unfortunately, I don't take my advice, so I'll be as involved as others here, but I'll try not to sweat the daily ups and downs.
Gary
If by chance Mesoblast and PSTI prove to be equally effective, I believe we have a tremendous advantage because of our production capability. We may be a matter of days or weeks behind in initiating trials, but it won't take that long to see what the data from each reveals.
If in fact no one would need a ventilator in the future, because PLX-PAD could be administered on pneumonia being seen, and it effectively ended the threat, the course of this pandemic could be dramatically changed as I believe that with PSTI's capabilities, they'd be able to provide doses for all who have pneumonia in a matter of a couple months. I believe the nations of the world should be willing to spend billions to have coverage for all who need the drug.
Gary
Let's be clear about the company's filings, they've now filed the 3rd quarter for last year, which was delinquent. In a normal year the Annual Report would be delinquent by now, but all companies have been given extensions, so right now we're in compliance. I believe the Annual Report is due shortly, and the first quarter should follow before June.
Based on what we've been told, even the first quarter will show losses, but they made money in March, so with income growing in April, I believe it's clear that the second quarter will be an eye opener for a lot of people. If coronavirus delays are still in place, that may not be due until early September, but normally it would be due early August.
On the news tonight it was mentioned that in some countries where restrictions have been eased increasing infection has been noted. New restrictions are being applied. I hope we get the message, but given the places that seem to be opening up, we're positioning ourselves to a second wave, at least in some places. Until there is a vaccine, masks, distancing, etc. should really be practiced. Some of the pictures of our beaches, etc and businesses opening with, or without Govt. agreeing, there are going to be hot spots that could have been avoided.
Gary
My question had all gaining some benefit, clearly if there is a group that gets no benefit, and it can be determined prior to dosing, they'd not get it. My point was that if 10% got benefits that went beyond any known treatment, shouldn't they be included.
Of course when we see the trial results it's possible certain grouping have no benefit, if that's the case the approval shouldn't include them. That wouldn't preclude using it in combination with something in another trial, or even as an off label use once approved. I'm a big believer that post approval most drugs don't get used in precisely the approved way, Doctors and patients often attempt to try something to make them more effective, and some times they hit on something that leads to a marked improvement.
DCVax-L and Direct may cure some patients, but clearly they aren't the ultimate answer, that's only reached when all patients are being cured. The thing is, if that ever happens, they still might be one component of what it takes to get the cures. Only time will tell.
Gary
For the purpose of discussion, lets say the benefits can be essentially grouped in 5 basic groups. In group 1, 50% saw benefits, in group 2 it was 40%, group 3 30%, group 4 20%, group 5 10%. If you're the FDA, or an insurance company, do you deny treatment to even the group with the least chance at benefit if you have nothing better to offer to that group. I believe all should be treated, but I'm interested in hearing what others are thinking.
Gary
I've seen it stated that if the TLD is positive, many Institutional investors will be looking to get in. I would suspect that many of them have charters indicating they don't invest in stocks under $1, or possible even $5. The thing is, Institutions only report stocks that they hold over a quarter. If they purchase the first day of the quarter, and sell on the last, nothing need be reported.
L.P. will be giving those who feel reasonably certain of success in the trial a big favor if TLD isn't revealed until July, as on the first trading day in July Institutions can load up, and the MM's will often work with them to do so before the open, or after the close I believe. If you see millions of shares trading then, you'll know what's happening.
I'd love to see results before the end of June, let the individual investors react to the news before the Institutions get in. Any Institution that buys before July 1st will need to report the holding if they still own it in July. This is a rather archaic way of doing things, but it's currently the rules. We live in an electronic world, where such things could be reported the instant they occur, yet Institutions aren't required to report holdings until half way through the next quarter, and only report stocks they held over the quarter.
I can understand not making the Institutions report all they do, but it would make sense to me if they had to report an stock they held for over XX number of days, 90 days is about as long as they can hold right now without reporting, but something less, say 60 days would make things more interesting. Of course I'd also like them to have to report it sooner, say after they held the shares for 60 days, rather than waiting till the middle of the following quarter. With computerized trading, little would be required to make the computer do all the reporting automatically. It won't happen, they have an advantage and want to keep it, but wouldn't it make for fairer markets.
Gary
I think we all have the same sort of questions, or concerns. While I believe it could all happen very quickly, the regulators typically don't work that fast. I believe the heat is on worldwide to make something happen, so I don't believe normal rules will apply.
To me, I believe the trial will prove PSTI's benefits on pneumonia, regardless of the source. If we gain an approval, even if the label says coronavirus, you know it will expand to pneumonia caused by all sorts of thing, and that will sustain it's value, actually raising the potential far more than if the only benefit was in coronavirus.
As for the trial, as quickly as this disease works, one month from the last enrolled patient should be sufficient for judgement. Not that people are necessarily cured completely in that time, but if it's working they'll be off of the ventilator, and probably out of the hospital. I.E. they'll have moved from being at risk to lose their life to recovering with practically no threat, only time needed to be completely healthy again.
Gary
Many years ago General Motors developed a system for powering a car that joined electric with gas drive, it was more expensive to make than a standard car, so they didn't believe it would be popular, even though it could produce better gas mileage. They sold it to Toyota, and that was the beginning of hybrid cars. Much the same applies here, someone else invented the technology, but PCTL purchased the rights, who do you think will have the greatest profit.
I frankly have no idea if the originators of the technology still have any interest in PCTL, I frankly wouldn't mind them continuing to be rewarded for their idea, but clearly stockholders in the company should reap the greatest rewards.
Great ideas are often created by people who sell before their ideas come to fruition, just as stock is often sold by long term investors before it makes it's greatest positive move. I believe that PCTL has something that could easily grow to thousands of times what it is today, perhaps even millions of times. I have no idea if PCTL will take it there, or some much bigger company will come along and acquire it, but regardless, investors will be well rewarded, and we'll all be a little safer as things in all sorts of places will be more sanitary than they were without this technology.
Personally, I would hope that no buyout occured before at least double digit billions was the offer on the table. I really don't believe that may take that long, but it won't happen this year, and probably not next year. Of course if it's never bought out there is no telling how high the stock price may go.
Gary
I really have no idea how many patients have now been granted compassionate use with PLX-PAD, or if Germany has begun testing, and if so, how many have been dosed. If there is news about this in the next week, or news of an International Trial beginning, it could be a huge week.
If there is no news, all we can do is speculate as to what's happening.
Personally, if I believed I was suffering with the disease, I'd try to get the compassionate use authorized before I ever went into a hospital. Once you're there things often happen quickly for patients, they often go on ventilators in just days after being diagnosed with pneumonia. I don't know if it's possible, but if it is, having the compassionate use agreed upon would put a person ahead of the game.
Gary
There is no doubt in my mind that risk is greater in Pink stocks, but I doubt we'll be on the Pinks that much longer.
How many Pink stocks have tremendous sales growth and contracts for equipment that can keep them working for years.
How many Pink stocks are routinely delivering products that can be made at a substantial profit.
How many Pink stocks offer products that have a substantially increased demand.
PCTL does all these things, and more. Once the Annual Report is issued, I believe they'll work to move to the OTC. It will take awhile to move on to a bigger exchange, I still believe that $1 can achieve an AMEX listing, but most want the Nasdaq, which requires $4 to qualify. While I really think the exchanges should rethink their position, and base qualification on the market cap, but that's currently not the case. The company has said that they don't intend to do a reverse split, so by the time they can qualify for the Nasdaq they'll have a market cap of over $2 billion while some stocks on the Nasdaq are barely into the tens of millions. It hardly makes sense.
PCTL in terms of business growth is truly taking care of business, now they need to do it from an accounting basis by coming current on quarterly and annual filings, once that's the case, I believe not only will the share price be dramatically higher, they'll also be seen by many who've never heard of them before as a company with almost no limit to their upside potential.
Gary
The thing about a 1000 person trial is that it could probably be enrolled completely in under a week, and the outcome should be so convincing. I've seen the FDA reject convincing 300 person trials for drugs that were approved after more data was supplied. Results of the initial trial were obvious, but failed to meet some number established by the FDA, years later and in a bigger trial, the numbers were met. I say 1000 because I believe it leaves no doubt.
I may be wrong, but I believe that finding 250 clinical sites that each agree to dose 4 patients would get it started in days, perhaps even all on day one if all of them had the meds available to them on day one.
I'm not saying they'll support this, but I believe if they did it would leave absolutely no doubt.
Gary
I agree with you, but even if they give it to conscious people, not yet on a ventilator, I believe they should let all get it and observe, we know what will happen to those who don't get it, there are hundreds of thousands around the world that aren't getting it. No placebo should be required.
I'm not big on placebo's in any trial where there is a mass of historical data that can be used for comparison. I think all who volunteer to try an experimental treatment should get that treatment whether it's for a life threatening disease, or a hangnail.
Gary
Does anyone know how long Multikine has been in trials. It's probably about 25 years since I was told about CVM, only then it's symbol was changed to HIV because they were going after AIDS. The drug was Multikine.
I don't know how many times it's failed since then, but perhaps some day they'll find a disease that works with their drug. I'll bet that if I could find the letters put out by the company then, the letter would be identical except a search and replace was done, and AIDS could be replaced with whatever the new disease is. Each new disease came with inspirational letters that boosted share price, new stock was issued, and they were off for another several years.
Otherwise, I see no similarities between the companies.
Gary
Ask yourself a question, what if some of what bashers say is true. What if the company is substantially diluting. Would it matter that much to investors if the money was for the growth of the company, and that was as strong as we believe it is.
Personally, I don't care how many shares are outstanding as long as in the end we're earning money on each share. How much money? Even a penny would justify $.10 to $.30 based on a P/E of 10 to 30, but I believe we could be doing much better than that by the end of the year. If we're earning a dime, that gives you a $1 to $3 price with the same P/E's.
Let's say the O/S grows to 750 million, to get a dime in earnings would require $75 million. With the size of the U.K. order and all the other growth we're hearing about, does anyone think this is much of a stretch. I certainly don't.
If we were invested in the average stock, we'd probably be satisfied with 10% growth for the year, we're all looking for that much, or more every month on average, and I believe we're in a stock that can very probably give it to us, at least for the immediate future.
This won't last forever. When the company is selling for well over $1 you cannot expect it to grow 10% a month, but a gain of $1 or more annually won't be bad until it's selling in double digits.
Gary
Hopefully we'll learn that PSTI will be initiating clinical trials Internationally shortly, the trial might possibly be for 1000 patients or more. I believe the drug is readily available, and if enough clinical sites are included, the trial could be completely enrolled in a couple weeks, or less. 30 to 45 days after full enrollment it ought to be possible to conclude the trial, very few patients at that time should still be in the hospital, they'll either have gotten well enough to leave, or they're no longer with us.
While this is happening, a question I'd ask is, will PLX-PAD be available for compassionate use for those being treated in non-trial sites. In that many patients in the trial are on ventilators, I doubt very much that patients would be moved to be put at trial sites.
Gary
NWBO currently has a market cap of $120 million, while I don't believe the trial will fail to demonstrate a tremendous advantage, I can never be certain that the FDA won't want something more, or something different. Should that be the case, and all the other regulators went along and didn't approve it, perhaps the market cap would drop to $60 million. I don't believe this will be the case, I think with the potential for approval, even with an additional trial required, could bring out an offer of a billion or more to purchase the company, but lets ignore that.
From a reward standpoint, many believe the company would like to be bought out for $20 billion or more, let's say they don't achieve that, let's say they get $12 billion, that would be one hundred times what we're selling for today.
I'm happy to hear about what you believe the risk and reward is, but I believe that the trial will show that many lived much longer than had they been on the SOC. The least that should happen is the establishment of a trial protocol that showed the benefits differently because of what they've learned in the over a decade this trial took. I don't believe that will be needed, but that's worst case. Best case is not just approval, but advancement of DCVax-Direct, and if it shows benefits in multiple cancers, that buyout price could have the decimal point move one place to the right. I like the risk/reward but I'm happy to hear about how you see it.
Gary
To me it's rather unimaginable that we could be nearly at the price we saw before learning that our equipment will be used throughout the U.K. I can't think of a much greater validation of what we have than the purchase of a country as advanced as England after a thorough evaluation of our equipment over months.
I can't say how many millions, or billions we'll earn over the duration of the U.K. agreement, but I suspect that it alone will in time be worth over a dollar in share price. Clearly growth is good here in the U.S. and the bulk of it right now is in hospitals, because they're open. There will be a tremendous emphasis on sanitation as all sorts of places that have shut down as they reopen. In short, I cannot think of an industry that should be faster growing than what we're providing, and I cannot think of a better way to do it. The water and salt we use are in abundant supply, our agent will be fresh, and it's not harmful to use while people are present. It shouldn't be used as Trump described, though he now indicates that was in gist, but it can be used on all sorts of things, including sanitizing food, don't drink it, but a little on an apple your eating does no harm.
Give it six months and you'll be amazed at all the way our products are being used, and just how many more places they've been installed. By that time, I suspect our price will be dramatically higher, and many days we'll see both ups, and downs, that are greater than our share price today.
Gary
If it's purely dilutive action by the company that's creating this weakness, I frankly wished they'd been more open about doing it, and expressing the need for it. I understand, it takes money to make money, and right now they're being asked to deliver much more product then in previous months. They need to grow, and that costs.
The good news is that with this growth, they'll be earning far more, and employing far more than ever before. I thought the price a bargain under $.07 and added there, should it go down significantly more I don't know that I wouldn't do it again.
Gary
I'm not a Motley Fool subscriber, but generally have respected them, but not this morning's article saying you shouldn't be invested in PSTI. Clearly the author doesn't understand what we have, and the competitive advantage we're at in making our product. Nor did he look at the existing trials that are running, and appear headed for approval.
Yes we've had a substantial increase in our market cap, but he's not considering what the market cap should be on approval of anything. I believe a billion is certainly in the cards, and it will grow to many billions. If we get that approval in coronavirus, I don't know that double digit billions wouldn't be the case practically instantaneously.
Gary
While you certainly could be right, I believe there is another possibility, namely that anticipation of results will gradually increase the price as the date TLD is revealed approaches. As of now, there are roughly something around 50 trading days until early July, I don't know that we'll get a big move, but if we merely averaged $.001 per day, our price would be $.05 cents higher, up roughly 30%. Not a bad return for a little over 2 months of time.
Gary
I cannot say how much the company will talk about the money they're bringing in before financials are revealed, but by the end of the year, I really believe the revenue will justify $1 or more. That said, on the weakness today I added some more, I hadn't planned to, but couldn't resist the bargain basement price.
Current financials are known to be loaded with debt, but by the time we reach second quarter, they will turn around, by fourth quarter the company will have grown dramatically, and while that costs money, they'll be bringing in more money than anyone can imagine.
Everyone with businesses that deal with the public, or where people need to work in reasonably close proximity to one another are looking into how they can better protect themselves. Our products provide the ideal protection, whether a unit is purchased, or a company that utilizes them will provide the service. I believe that many of the companies that currently provide cleaning services that currently don't have our equipment will be looking to add it in the very near future as businesses reopen.
Gary
Do you know if the Ryobi sprayer they're using is electrostatic, or just a good power sprayer. As I gather it, coverage is more complete if it's electrostatic like the room units we sell.
Gary
I certainly agree TLD is generally released as soon as everything comes together and they can write it up. Technical conferences will be where all the details will come out, then after they have, they can be shared with investors. I doubt if TLD will be much more than a few paragraphs long, it will give the highlights, but not the details.
Gary