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So that confirms the same things that we're hearing from the distributor channel checks on the initial order phase. I'm still looking for some help with my math from somebody. You're saying 300K cases that is coming from not more than the past three weeks of pre sales efforts. In other words, the masses have really not even been exposed to the product yet. 300K in three weeks from two states? How many states are there? Anybody? What's 300K times 25? I believe that is 7.5 million. Now, at $12 per case, how much money in sales is that? This dern computer calculator sucks. I keep getting $90 million. We know that cannot even be close because the stock would be $10+ and not 14 cents. And we would be talking about how much bigger that number is going to get. Instead we are talking about Trump sales from last year, and earnings numbers that the company booked last year. And a certain amount of extra effort being spent talking about how that 14 cents is overvalued based on what is in the filings. Congratulations! My calculator is fixed. It now shows that if we hang around stupid long enough, we will in fact....
Be able to point our fingers at......
Patrick filed his form of guidance in that latest PR about the beer. Especially since it has come to dissecting the anatomy of a gnat for some.
J. Patrick Kenny, the Company’s CEO, stated, "We interviewed a number of breweries and tasted a number of products, and like all of our beverages, we think we will be introducing a product that tastes great, is very drinkable and one that millions of Kid Rock fans in America will try and adopt. Based on distributor interest, Drinks Americas and Kid Rock’s American Bad Ass Beer Company are together going to sell a lot of beer."
Distributor interest = pre sales; already ordered awaiting delivery
Try = a minimum of one beer
Millions of fans = a minimum of 2 million fans to achieve the plural form of million. That would equate to a minimum of 83,333 cases of beer that will be "tried" by Kid Rock fans. At $12 a case, that is $1 million in sales "just for trying" or sampling the beer just by Kid Rock fans.
Kid Rock fans "trying" a beer? Kid Rock fans drink beer and alot of it. For them, "trying a beer" is a six pack. That is a half million cases. That is $6 million in pre sales just for Kid Rock fans "to try" the beer.
This of course, is only guidance for Kid Rock's fans. But until we see it in a filing, we have to believe that not one single other individual in the world "will try" Kid Rock beer unless they denounce themselves as a fan in advance. Otherwise, they don't count and it should be considered they will never purchase the product.
:)
Nahhhh, there haven't. We made the suggestion at the Annual Meeting that there were a number of opportunities to showcase Kid's Beer all throughout the year in relation to various events Kid Rock would be performing at complete with logistical information, costs, expected revenues, as well as other marketing avenues to take advantage of. The ones that are talking about it are the ones who created it.
Johnny? One distributor in each state is ordering 100K cases mininum, then what does that come out to at $12 a case for the whole country? What will happen to that number when we leave pre sales and receive nationwide media attention? What does that come out to at 4 times the order rate for China? For Israel? For Iraq? For Europe? For India? For the additional 4 kinds of beer? Can you help me out here? My math is a bit rusty.
They cannot mess this one up. The orders are off the charts. The beer is in production. Even the Detroit TV station has been by to sample the beer. The beer being shipped out of Webberville. The name announcement should be this week. All in this quarter. A new record.
Well, I will profess here and now that if Hansens can introduce Self as a drinkable Elixir and expect it to do well in sales and have a marked effect on a woman's beauty and appearance.....
Then Kid Rock Beer will be the product of the century. After all, it will do the exact same thing if a guy drinks it...
In 20 minutes...
At a fraction of the cost.
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/090305/0479473.html
Kid Rock announces his new beer introduction as "America's Beer" on the heels of AB defecting to Europe. Americans are searching for a new brew to call their own and Kid Rock is creating jobs because of it. Initial channel checks in the pre sales process clearly show the brew is already selling 1000% above initial estimates. In Bev getting slaughtered on a 95%, I repeat a 95% DECREASE IN EARNINGS THIS QUARTER, and Americans clearly proving "Buy USA" is still the fashionable thing to do. Drinks Americas DKAM, is the one behind the whole concept. Kid's "American Bad Ass Beer" is due at any time to hit the retail market.
I'll give you guys first crack at this one. DKAM came off the new low on Monday with an immediate 66% spike to the upside. They've left it down here for far too long. I'd just as soon give it to you guys here being such a good group. That is a complete cluster phruck of morons over on that board. It spiked and will continue to go for the best of reasons.
Anyways, what am I giving? Simple and easy. Two weeks ago, they announced the brewery for Kid Rock's new beer introduction. With Anheuser Busch going AWOL to Belgium, Kid wants to take their lost market share. The State of Michigan is getting behind it 1000% with all sorts of tax incentives to make the beer. That is because Kid Rock is making beer, and creating jobs in this economy. The whole concept and sales and endorsement, etc is all DKAM. Get this. Since the announcement, over 2.8 million hits on Yahoo for Kid Rock Beer. The company guided for $2 million in first year sales for Kid Rock Beer back in October. Well, channel checks of pre orders the past two days has yielded a half million cases of pre orders alone in the first two weeks. That is $6 million is sales which easily eclipses the company's best sales as a company ever.
The product is ready to go and in production now for release in the next couple of weeks.
This is one of those like JSDA three years ago that you pick up a crapload at 19 cents and before you know it. $33. You know, EXACTLY the way JSDA did it, and HANS before that.
This is the real deal. Google it. Check it if you wish.
www.drinksamericas.com
Here's something I found that might be huge...
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_J/threadview?bn=26938&tid=202013&mid=202013
No more predictions from me. I gave all that to Piper. I'll let them handle it from here.
Yeah, thanks for your help on that Johnny. It is just that. These numbers don't lie. We're already pushing a half million cases and only a third done with our checks. Only a couple weeks into the pre order phase I have to believe Michigan Brewing isn't going to be big enough. But that issue is already handled when the deal was done. They knew that going in. A half million at $12 a case?
I wonder if this means anything....
http://thisis50.ning.com/profiles/blogs/hot-or-not-dr-dre-feat-ti-amp
Mangoes? This one is off the chart obscenely huge for us. Get to Rilo or somebody and get me an e mail addy and a phone number. This is going to blow away everything anyone has even thought of.
What I heard was Trump going to close every show with the Celebrity Apprentices toasting a various Trump Vodka flavor to their vicotry. Trump to announce all sales of Trump Vodka between now and July 4 have $1 of every bottle donated to Walter Reed and then presents a check at the end. Of course, we'll see. No telling what the cutting room holds. However, with this on the table and Kid Rock coming out this quarter, plus Detox, Em, and 50, and glass solved with orders shipping, the current quarter is blowout. So, let's see who wants to try to figure out what earnings are this past January end. We've moved so far beyond that already. This quarter is another record quarter. And you'll say I always say that. Uhhhhh, no I doubt. I only say it when it's true.
Well, it took some work but perhaps the best DD to date. After what I consider a stellar presentation, the two guys I know Kid rocks on with about everything understand Kid has no choice beyond the utter obvious than to take a stake in Drinks. It's a no brainer. All I can offer at this time for obvious reasons. Very sizable indeed.
Don't forget Drinks Americas on Apprentice on Sunday. I'd give you the show spoiler but then again, that's why it's a spoiler.
My apologies. I was so taken back by the lack of professional and technical expertise in analyzing the earnings report that I said sales instead of profits. Major earnings miss. Company is commoditized. The growth has happened. It's over. Yet, it's $30. Learn the rules, then chime in.
No, it won't help. It is what it is. It is a commoditized beverage stock that has seen its glory, and will go EXACTLY the way of Krispy Kreme or Crox unless they pray day and night that Coke or Pepsi buys them....and quickly. Otherwise, back to $8 for sure.
All the cash in the world doesn't matter. If the sales are declining this dramatically, then something is definitely wrong. After all, this is what we've had to listen to here for two years.
Oh!!!!!!!!!!! I get it. They have lots of this and that and everything in the world that doesn't pertain to sales and profit.
I got ya. The topic just quickly, and in record time, became patronizing. Ignore on./
Why not? Patrick said he is building a $billion dollar company.
Here's a lesson to be learned by all. Pay attention, it doesn't get any easier.
HANS just reported earnings. $118 million in distributor termination write offs. A net LOSS of $23 million, or 25 cents a share versus a net PROFIT of $45 million or 45 cents a year ago.
That is an utter and complete disaster, and the stock is still $30. Please don't patronize me with higher sales, or journal entries, or ledger shuffling. It is a disaster plain and simple.
I will take this to mean emphatically that anyone who continues to sqwawk about what the DKAM CEO had for lunch today, or what a certain distributor ordered, or anything of the like to be pure BS. It is what we said it is all along. It is a start up with its normal growing pains like anyone else and will be treated as such. Anyone else is purposely talking the stock down for their own financial gains. Plain and simple and my considered professional opinion.
You might want to read this on DKAM. Seems rather pertinent...
From his website back and forth. Plus the recent big news this week.
You think I'm kidding about all this? Just got off the phone with Mr. Davidson at Drinks Americas. I wanted to put in my order for a few cases. I have never seen so much excitement in a product. He said this overwhelms anything the company has done to date. Of course, this is just in one week of being announced. He said that the distributor requests and orders are off the charts. Michigan is erupting as was expected but over the top way more than they expected. The company expected a detailed product introduction in the Midwest and then branching out to both coasts. However, the distributor requests are pouring in so fast for product and so much higher than anticipated. He also said that Kid Rock Beer has received 23.2 million Yahoo hits since hitting the news wires. Does anybody have any concept of big this is going to be?
"Nope, try as you might, it's nothing more than that. Look at the story. Is that the part that is so troubling? I've been in the beverage biz a few years myself. I've seen what's transpired in the market as a result. Hansen...Monster was the best from under a buck to over 400 a share. Jones Soda was 19 cents and went to 33 bucks, so it can happen. But don't look there, it's crap now and for good. The others like Castle Brands, Reed, Guppie, Who's Your Daddy are all junk and then some. Stay away! This story is as pure as the driven snow. Insiders of DKAM own over half the shares and have not sold a one of them. That's a big sign. The CEO on their website states he is building a billion dollar company. Check for yourself. www.drinksamericas.com Read the shareholder letter in December. Read the Maxim report in October. Easy to see why he states so. Even at current street value, it is undervalued by over 80%. That's just if somebody offered to buy the company today before Kid's beer even hits the market. This is identical to how Hansen's Monster looked when people did like you're doing, "What's your angle?" So, it makes me sure it will be the same kind of winner. I mean, think about it. If Jones Soda can go 19 cents to $33 on "Pure Cane Soda" that was a flash in the pan at best and still is, what do you think Kid's Beer will do in comparison?
I'll even help you out with some numbers. How's that?
Kid has about 5 million fans worldwide....give or take. If he puts out a beer, how many are going to try it? Let's be safe and say 10%. That is 500,000. Let's say they drink an average of 2 cases per year. That is realistically low considering when the beer is unleashed on Sturgis, they will drink 400K cases there alone. So, 1 million cases is conservative. As far as sales go, that's about $12 million wholesale. Now, add to that the $40 million from Rolling Rock. That is $52 million in sales. The company is currently doing around $4 million in sales. So, that is a 1200% increase in sales. You know of any other company out there calling for that big of an increase in sales? Nope, there isn't a single one. I've even heard the robots on CNBC say over and over that stocks like BUD and others sell on the street at 30 times trailing cash flow. On that $52 million, the cash is about $10 million. That is $300 million in street value that the company would get an offer to be bought for. That's a little over $3.50 a share, or roughly 25 times the current price. And that makes perfect sense to me considering the profit on that amount of sales is about 15 cents a share. So, the PE falls in line perfectly at a shade over 20.
Of course, that is just first year sales and only Kid's involvement. They still have their deals with 50 Cent, Dr. Dre, Universal Music, Warner Music, Trump, Paul Newman, and some others coming.
So, if it's that difficult to see the forest through the trees, hey! don't mess with it. In the meantime, I'll just smile knowing that any Kid fan who doesn't buy is dissing their very own Kid in the process. Just get the beer! You're going to love it!
http://my.packexpo.com/NST-4-50193902/Michigan-Brewing-Company-to-Begin-Producing-Kid-Rock-Beer.aspx
Preliminary estimates are 500,000 to 1 million cases because it will be so fresh and new; plus a given if we're sponsoring Kid's concert. You know, like the Shareholder Letter stated we would be.
Oh, I have no doubt in my mind on that. Kenny did as i expected and dramatically underscored the intro. After all, we can bash him all we want for understating and over delivering! No can delays. No bottle delays. Kid excited beyond belief. He wants it to be huge simply because it will be.
Yeah, you found me out. That is what's been gurgling in my belly! And for once, not an overstuffed burrito! Stunning results. Plus, the distributor requests in the first week alone are so far beyond their initial thoughts. Michigan is beyond belief, but it is nationwide. They are going to have to retool and send it out everywhere immediately.
Well, I 'll start with his specific statements that the company has street credit, and then his further statements that the company has a $10 million credit line that they have not had to utilize. I'll tip my hat off to anyone that knows that from taking two seconds to listen to a conference call.
What you're saying is no different than a loan shark offering you a trunk full of cash, and then alerting the media if they don't take it, not to mention friends and next of kin. Look above, yep, that's exactly what you're saying.
Yep, a monster mover in the making for sure. Wow, silence is a virtue.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PSTI&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Yep, American Bad Ass going to do quite nicely. Only Kid knows how to throw a party!
http://www.cbc.ca/thehour/videos.html?id=858188762
Dig. Dig. Dig. Awesome findings. I will pray for you if you're short. Yeah right.
Nope, you won't. Would be in your best interest to learn how the process works. Labatt isn't the only thing for sale. KPS and High Falls are the only ones talking. Call High Falls. They'll tell you who their competition was. They are crowing.
I beg your pardon but my response was to Tirunesh. Obviously your nefarious position is clearly becoming evident IMO with your postings. Patrick clearly stated in the Shareholder Letter and by conference call that he was going to grow the business by acquisition. I simply addressed some parameters around that very end and will continue to draw reference to any number of acquisitions I see Drinks is a prime candidate for. This time I never mentioned a one and therefore.....
I will thank you to not ever paraphrase me again unless you are asked to do so.
As quick as KPS and High Falls were to jump up and tell the press they were the likely buyers of Labatt, they were equally as quick to point out who their competition was. Therefore, that's how folks are learning DKAM has the money, had the money, and was in the mix til the end. In so doing, they, or anyone at InBev and AB, violated their own Non-Disclosure Agreements. But it is obviously up to IB to enforce its own rules if they so choose to. However, I will point out that Labatt is/was the only brand that InBev was required to divest. There is much more work to do that you will not see in the press until it is done and fully accretive. The good thing about anything else is it will just happen out of nowhere. That is the fun part because it will gap more than large IMO catching most without their shares. Might even be today. Who knows. Then I'm sure Patrick will be more than happy to share war stories at the multi dollar party. See you there.
Yep, knew about it over the weekend. Sad mistake on InBev's part. These KPS guys are Bear Stearns guys. They will buy it for $100 mil and save drowning High Falls so Snyder can retire. Then they'll put it all on the auction block within 24 months for $400-$500 million. Somehow, it will end up back in InBev's lap, and the DOJ will let it happen.
No, you get YOUR facts straight. If you had talked to management, you would know. The "reason" the PR was put out today is so the market knows the brewery is selected in conjunction with the recent news THAT THE STATE OF MICHIGAN PUT OUT LAST WEEK, and so the market gets it right. The initial releases said "Michigan Brewery vying for Kid Rock Beer". There is no vying, it was done over 4 months ago. The people interviewed also failed to mention Drinks in those intial PRs. They gave the appearance that this was a deal that was concocted between Kid Rock and Michigan Brewing when it clearly was not. This is all Patrick Kenny working with Kid Rock.
Once again, lack of due diligence.
Yeah, I guess you got that right. I'm still waiting for the PR from the company that we will be advertising for the Super Bowl....and then one from the company that we are not.
Hennessey and Patron Get the nod on this one.
I'm looking for these companies in all the DKAM press releases and not a single one of them is mentioned as having anything to do with Drinks, nor are they in their sector. Therefore your post is off topic.
Worldwide Exclusive 50 Cent Release "Do What It Do" once again from DJ Envy:
http://www.thisis50.com/forum/topics/new-50-do-what-it-do-feat-r
Try this on for size. How can this company be worth less than the money that was used to form the company??
Answer? It can't. They had nothing. Now, they have more. Way more. And once again, there is no valid argument to the contrary.