Thursday, February 26, 2009 1:54:13 PM
You might want to read this on DKAM. Seems rather pertinent...
From his website back and forth. Plus the recent big news this week.
You think I'm kidding about all this? Just got off the phone with Mr. Davidson at Drinks Americas. I wanted to put in my order for a few cases. I have never seen so much excitement in a product. He said this overwhelms anything the company has done to date. Of course, this is just in one week of being announced. He said that the distributor requests and orders are off the charts. Michigan is erupting as was expected but over the top way more than they expected. The company expected a detailed product introduction in the Midwest and then branching out to both coasts. However, the distributor requests are pouring in so fast for product and so much higher than anticipated. He also said that Kid Rock Beer has received 23.2 million Yahoo hits since hitting the news wires. Does anybody have any concept of big this is going to be?
"Nope, try as you might, it's nothing more than that. Look at the story. Is that the part that is so troubling? I've been in the beverage biz a few years myself. I've seen what's transpired in the market as a result. Hansen...Monster was the best from under a buck to over 400 a share. Jones Soda was 19 cents and went to 33 bucks, so it can happen. But don't look there, it's crap now and for good. The others like Castle Brands, Reed, Guppie, Who's Your Daddy are all junk and then some. Stay away! This story is as pure as the driven snow. Insiders of DKAM own over half the shares and have not sold a one of them. That's a big sign. The CEO on their website states he is building a billion dollar company. Check for yourself. www.drinksamericas.com Read the shareholder letter in December. Read the Maxim report in October. Easy to see why he states so. Even at current street value, it is undervalued by over 80%. That's just if somebody offered to buy the company today before Kid's beer even hits the market. This is identical to how Hansen's Monster looked when people did like you're doing, "What's your angle?" So, it makes me sure it will be the same kind of winner. I mean, think about it. If Jones Soda can go 19 cents to $33 on "Pure Cane Soda" that was a flash in the pan at best and still is, what do you think Kid's Beer will do in comparison?
I'll even help you out with some numbers. How's that?
Kid has about 5 million fans worldwide....give or take. If he puts out a beer, how many are going to try it? Let's be safe and say 10%. That is 500,000. Let's say they drink an average of 2 cases per year. That is realistically low considering when the beer is unleashed on Sturgis, they will drink 400K cases there alone. So, 1 million cases is conservative. As far as sales go, that's about $12 million wholesale. Now, add to that the $40 million from Rolling Rock. That is $52 million in sales. The company is currently doing around $4 million in sales. So, that is a 1200% increase in sales. You know of any other company out there calling for that big of an increase in sales? Nope, there isn't a single one. I've even heard the robots on CNBC say over and over that stocks like BUD and others sell on the street at 30 times trailing cash flow. On that $52 million, the cash is about $10 million. That is $300 million in street value that the company would get an offer to be bought for. That's a little over $3.50 a share, or roughly 25 times the current price. And that makes perfect sense to me considering the profit on that amount of sales is about 15 cents a share. So, the PE falls in line perfectly at a shade over 20.
Of course, that is just first year sales and only Kid's involvement. They still have their deals with 50 Cent, Dr. Dre, Universal Music, Warner Music, Trump, Paul Newman, and some others coming.
So, if it's that difficult to see the forest through the trees, hey! don't mess with it. In the meantime, I'll just smile knowing that any Kid fan who doesn't buy is dissing their very own Kid in the process. Just get the beer! You're going to love it!
http://my.packexpo.com/NST-4-50193902/Michigan-Brewing-Company-to-Begin-Producing-Kid-Rock-Beer.aspx
From his website back and forth. Plus the recent big news this week.
You think I'm kidding about all this? Just got off the phone with Mr. Davidson at Drinks Americas. I wanted to put in my order for a few cases. I have never seen so much excitement in a product. He said this overwhelms anything the company has done to date. Of course, this is just in one week of being announced. He said that the distributor requests and orders are off the charts. Michigan is erupting as was expected but over the top way more than they expected. The company expected a detailed product introduction in the Midwest and then branching out to both coasts. However, the distributor requests are pouring in so fast for product and so much higher than anticipated. He also said that Kid Rock Beer has received 23.2 million Yahoo hits since hitting the news wires. Does anybody have any concept of big this is going to be?
"Nope, try as you might, it's nothing more than that. Look at the story. Is that the part that is so troubling? I've been in the beverage biz a few years myself. I've seen what's transpired in the market as a result. Hansen...Monster was the best from under a buck to over 400 a share. Jones Soda was 19 cents and went to 33 bucks, so it can happen. But don't look there, it's crap now and for good. The others like Castle Brands, Reed, Guppie, Who's Your Daddy are all junk and then some. Stay away! This story is as pure as the driven snow. Insiders of DKAM own over half the shares and have not sold a one of them. That's a big sign. The CEO on their website states he is building a billion dollar company. Check for yourself. www.drinksamericas.com Read the shareholder letter in December. Read the Maxim report in October. Easy to see why he states so. Even at current street value, it is undervalued by over 80%. That's just if somebody offered to buy the company today before Kid's beer even hits the market. This is identical to how Hansen's Monster looked when people did like you're doing, "What's your angle?" So, it makes me sure it will be the same kind of winner. I mean, think about it. If Jones Soda can go 19 cents to $33 on "Pure Cane Soda" that was a flash in the pan at best and still is, what do you think Kid's Beer will do in comparison?
I'll even help you out with some numbers. How's that?
Kid has about 5 million fans worldwide....give or take. If he puts out a beer, how many are going to try it? Let's be safe and say 10%. That is 500,000. Let's say they drink an average of 2 cases per year. That is realistically low considering when the beer is unleashed on Sturgis, they will drink 400K cases there alone. So, 1 million cases is conservative. As far as sales go, that's about $12 million wholesale. Now, add to that the $40 million from Rolling Rock. That is $52 million in sales. The company is currently doing around $4 million in sales. So, that is a 1200% increase in sales. You know of any other company out there calling for that big of an increase in sales? Nope, there isn't a single one. I've even heard the robots on CNBC say over and over that stocks like BUD and others sell on the street at 30 times trailing cash flow. On that $52 million, the cash is about $10 million. That is $300 million in street value that the company would get an offer to be bought for. That's a little over $3.50 a share, or roughly 25 times the current price. And that makes perfect sense to me considering the profit on that amount of sales is about 15 cents a share. So, the PE falls in line perfectly at a shade over 20.
Of course, that is just first year sales and only Kid's involvement. They still have their deals with 50 Cent, Dr. Dre, Universal Music, Warner Music, Trump, Paul Newman, and some others coming.
So, if it's that difficult to see the forest through the trees, hey! don't mess with it. In the meantime, I'll just smile knowing that any Kid fan who doesn't buy is dissing their very own Kid in the process. Just get the beer! You're going to love it!
http://my.packexpo.com/NST-4-50193902/Michigan-Brewing-Company-to-Begin-Producing-Kid-Rock-Beer.aspx
My due diligence and resulting opinions come from 25+ years in the world of trading and investing. Anything I post therefore should be construed as representative of that hard work and effort. Any contrarian viewpoints to my analysis and resulting convict
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