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There are ‘false alarm’ posts that cry “wolf” being presented. So I ask what conclusion should one have when confronted by these continuing efforts?
To be clear, due to and despite these posts, I will continue to follow and put my faith in analyses from professional organizations such as the EIA, API, DFR, GCEO (LSU), BSEE, OPEC, et al with reputations for credibility.
These organizations offer consistently accurate evaluations and provide recommendations useful for establishing expectations. Even though it requires a bit more effort, investment funds deserve nothing less.
Finding a need, I have attempted to bring these analyses to the readers of the board in my posts. Perhaps I am wasting my time with this effort. It appears that reevaluation is called for to determine the best path for me moving ahead.
I will leave today’s readers with a final suggestion about relying on the opinions of unknown posters with unknown credentials and unknown agendas.
Do the research yourself and find supporting documentation to settle a conflict of opinion. Posted opinions at face value are suspect in these environments and circumstances. It is my sincere belief that one must never rely on unsubstantiated posts for financial or investment decisions.
.…“Do not be fooled. Your $$$ will be taken from your pocket just as quickly as any other pocket”….
Grumpy Mrs. Smith
It is just that the tenor of some posts is an indicator of intent to accumulate additional shares or participate in short activity. Such as what happened yesterday.
You are right. Did not see signs of cleverness…. None for all to see.
Have a safe trip to Houston.
Mrs. Smith
If I remember correctly, 100% of Gulfslope’s management and employees are full time. Delek Group must not have any issues since they keep paying their share of costs. Which I believe they would not do if there were any doubts about Gulfslope Energy.
And I never said that Gulfslope employees were, in fact, working from home.
From my point of view, there is only one reason for all of this. To purposely drive down the share price.
Relax and enjoy your family and friends this week.
Mrs. Smith
Spec, thank you for the Thanksgiving wishes. A nice touch. We also wish a Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family, and all the dedicated readers of this board. Certainly, the ‘specs’ will keep biting this time of year, especially on the Gulf side (warmer water).
As far as dropping by the office for an activity check, perhaps we are focused on the wrong thing.
In my opinion, the fact that both Delek Group and Gulfslope Energy continue to pay escalating annual rental payments on the Tau lease is a more serious indicator of their intentions.
If in fact they have relocated their offices again, I see that as a prudent and positive development.
After all, considering the prioritizing of funds, I would much rather see them spend the ($100K) on issuing audited financials than continuing to pay office rentals.
If it were up to me to decide, I would have everyone working from home.
Mrs. Smith
While reading the 2024 Gulf Coast Energy Outlook (GCEO) forecast released yesterday, I found these positive comments:
Link to Excellent Slideshow: https://www.lsu.edu/ces/publications/2023/2024gceoslidesreduced.pdf
Link to Report: https://www.lsu.edu/ces/publications/2023/gceo_2024.pdf
* GCEO believes that the global market will continue to increasingly rely on the U.S. as a reliable source of energy and hydrocarbon-based products. This international demand will continue to facilitate investment within our region and sustain another decade of increased production of oil and natural gas. In the long-term GCEO still sees the Gulf Coast as well positioned as a net exporter of energy. In fact, political instability in other parts of the world can solidify the Gulf Coast of the U.S. as a reliable source of hydrocarbon-based products such as liquid fuels, chemical products, fertilizers, and polymers. GCEO continues to see longer-term opportunities for investment and employment growth in the energy manufacturing sectors.
* Gulf Coast oil and gas production rebounded even more quickly than the nation as a whole post pandemic and today Gulf Coast oil production is approximately 8.5 percent above the pre-pandemic peak. Gulf Coast natural gas production is 16 percent higher.
* The GCEO anticipates that oil and gas production will continue to increase, although fewer rig counts will be needed to produce more hydrocarbons. Thus, the industry is expected to continue producing more with fewer inputs, a sign of continued efficiency improvements.
* For perspective, in 2022 (the most recent full year of data available), natural gas accounted for 40 percent of electricity generated nationwide, wind for 10 percent, and solar for less than 4 percent. Renewables share of electricity generation are likely to increase, but natural gas is likely to be the largest fuel source for some time.
* This year’s GCEO modeling will assume that inflation continues to gradually slow to the Federal Reserve’s target of two to three percent over the next few years. Wage growth will gradually begin to outpace inflation, and demand for energy globally will continue to rise. GCEO, much like years past, anticipates that long-run energy demand growth will lead to increased U.S. energy exports, especially to the growing developing world.
* At the time of this writing, oil prices are in backwardation, with prices anticipated at about $78 per barrel by the end of 2024. In the long run, futures markets anticipate natural gas prices to oscillate between about $3.50 to $5 per MMBtu. European and Asian markets have not experienced the same rapid convergence to pre-Russian invasion of Ukraine norms, and this has created a comparative advantage for the Gulf Coast in attracting capital for projects in the processing and exporting of hydrocarbon-based products from the Gulf Coast region.
* Gulf Coast crude oil production forecast is anticipated to increase over the forecast horizon. For perspective, in 2022 regional crude oil production averaged 8.5 MMbbl/d. In calendar year 2023, which at the time of this writing is partially completed, ProdCast estimates Gulf Coast oil production to average 9.3 MMbbl/d, or an increase of approximately 9 percent. By 2032, Gulf Coast oil production is forecasted to reach 11.6 MMbbl/d.
* This year’s outlook identifies $222 billion in announced energy manufacturing investments out to 2030, a number that is 26 percent higher than the 2023 GCEO. The 2023 GCEO identified as much as 69 percent of all energy manufacturing investment to be located in Louisiana, driven in large part by LNG export investment.
* Louisiana is forecasted to gain approximately 1,000 upstream jobs in 2024, or about 4 percent due to the current lagged effect of relatively high prices, and then levelize in 2025 and 2026. Texas is forecasted to gain approximately 8,000 upstream jobs in 2024, or about 4 percent, then gain 2,500 jobs in 2025 (a 1.2 percent increase) and then flatten out 2026
* The Gulf Coast region’s refining sector continues its post-pandemic economic rebound, driven in by export opportunities arising, in part, from the geopolitical uncertainties in Eastern Europe, and increasingly, the Middle East. This year refinery utilizations are reaching levels not seen since 2019, approaching the mid to upper 90 percent range. Refined product trade: past trends seen in last year’s GCEO are likely to continue as the U.S.’ position as a global energy exporter strengthens. Disruptions and uncertainties in global energy markets, including refined product markets, will likely see a buttressing of current strong relative U.S. export positions in global markets, if not some smaller opportunities for growth.
* Geographic differences in crude oil and natural gas prices often drive pipeline development. If prices at “Point A” are higher than “Point B” at a given time, firms have the incentive to develop transportation resources to capture this price differential (or “basis”). Although oil production is anticipated to increase, due to the investment in pipeline infrastructure over the past decade, the need for increased barge and rail shipments is unlikely at this time. Last year’s GCEO questioned whether pipeline additions could become necessary once U.S. oil production reached pre-pandemic levels. Given oil production has just recently eclipsed pre-pandemic levels and is currently experiencing historical highs, ….time will tell whether pipeline constraints will become prevalent in the future. But as of today, markets appear to be in balance.
* Electricity is an important input for energy manufacturing that can comprise as much as 75 percent of ‘total variable operating costs’. Thus, regional electricity price competitiveness is important in regional economic development. The Gulf Coast continues to be a region with competitive industrial retail electricity rates. National average industrial electricity rates, at around $0.08 per kilowatt-hour (“kWh”), are considerably higher than the Gulf Coast composite regional average of less than $0.07 per kWh, which gives the region about a 13 percent electricity cost advantage.
My Holiday starts now. Wishing a Happy Thanksgiving to all.
Mrs. Smith
Speaking of investors wanting to get in on the E&P Sweepstakes, note that due to the hostilities in the Middle East, there has been record withdrawal volumes from equity funds focused on Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Israel.
Capital flight out of the Middle East is estimated to be significant at this time. How great will it be if some of that was to find it’s way to the U.S. GOM? And should that happen, Gulfslope Energy is there to welcome those investment $$$ with open arms and a ready opportunity. And do not forget, Gulfslope’s current partner in the Tau is based in Israel.
If the tensions in the Middle East expand, which is not too remote a possibility, this money will not sit idle indefinitely while those hostilities are resolved. There is also the very real possibility that investment dollars will seek opportunities in more stable locations. So keep those eyes open.
The overwhelming majority of GSPE shares do not trade. Does this tell us anything about these investors? Consider accumulating shares as an investment in the long game rather than only as a trading play. Ultimately, this is where the largest returns will be made, and todays low GSPE share price presents a very real chance to take advantage of a very real opportunity. Recognize that a large stash of GSPE shares could end up being a big time deal down the road. So keep an open mind too.
Hopefully, something to think about….
Mrs. Smith
It is apparent that the majority of GSPE shareholders maintain faith in Gulfslope Energy and continue to hold on to their shares despite repeated attempts to get them to sell those shares at a discount.
There are those that absolutely and positively wish to buy your shares for .0008 (or less), but they will never sell you their shares for that price. Go figure…. Streets are named after these people. They are aptly called “One Way”.
I am not surprised that astute shareholders clearly see that it is but a matter of time before investment interest returns to the E&P sector. And therefore higher GSPE share prices are likely not only on the table, but in the future. This explains the interest by many in accumulating additional shares at this time.
Changes evident in the marketplace that provide a positive outlook for the future of GSPE are easily spotted. Patience might be all that is required for the faith in GSPE shares to be fully validated. Just a reminder that, as is widely known, patience is still a virtue.
But there are storm clouds of RISK building for any that are ‘short’ in GSPE shares. The pendulum can begin swinging back at any time, and it may be a big move, depending on the circumstances that develop. So ‘Caution Advised’.
But, it is your money to do with as you wish. Just do not get caught unprepared. Good luck to you. No FLUFF.
Mrs Smith
Here is a clear sign that the Tau remains a bonafide drilling opportunity.
In the past, I have noticed a Gulfslope management trend that relinquishes active leases which no longer meets the criteria for their E&P strategy.
The current annual rental payment for the Tau lease due on November 1st has escalated in price to be almost 3 times the initial rental amount in 2017 ($105K @ 100% Working Interest).
Which brings the question why continue making these increasing rental payments if there is no intent to drill a second Tau well?
One reason could be that with the administration’s willful obstruction against GOM lease auctions the value of the Tau BOEM lease has increased. So, the main thing moving forward is acquiring a drilling plan and some cash. That puts Gulfslope ahead of other Principals that still need to undergo a lease auction. All of which should be favorably received by those investors wishing to enter the E&P Sweepstakes.
Mrs. Smith
Good morning everyone. I hope you are having a fabulously, wonderful day.
Because it has recently been brought to my attention by someone I know that reads my posts from time to time, they could be considered to be too ‘grumpy’. If that was your perception too, then I apologize.
So, if readers prefer only light-hearted posts going forward, I can do that. No interesting or informative discussions. No analysis. No Data, No opinions. Nothing thought provoking. I get it.
Hopefully most readers will find these better reading, more enjoyable, and not just bland and boring. Let me know. Please.
Profoundly Positive Pablum Posts Provided Perpetually and Permanently upon request.
Or none at all.
I had intended to attach a Michael Bolton track to help set the mood, but in the end I decided not to detract.
Mrs. Smith
Thank you for pointing this out. I have heard it before, but I never get tired of hearing it again.
Since this weekend includes Veterans Day, I wish to express my respect and appreciation for those who have served. A sincere ‘thank you’ and gracious gratitude for your service.
Mrs. Smith
While looking through the trees trying to see the forest, I will stick with the EIA’s forecast ‘average’ price for WTI in 2024, released on November 7th. This is $89.24/bbl, or $10 more a barrel than the average price ($79.41) so far in 2023.
Everyone should have noticed that pricing is not linear and is constantly fluctuating up and down. I do not feel especially queasy over these normal variations in price. So, I am good. I am more gratified by the expected trend, which is upward. And the wildcard of course is the turmoil in the Middle East. But I do not expect that to result in lower prices.
Link to EIA ‘Energy Prices’ (STEO) November 2023 Forecast:
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/tables/pdf/2tab.pdf
Mrs. Smith
In my opinion, the U.S. should end 2023 in a stronger position in regards to U.S. crude exports. Based off this week’s EIA Petroleum Status Report, U.S. Crude Oil Export ‘cumulative daily average’ rose 21% and it’s ‘four-week average’ increased by 13% for the week ending 10-27-23 compared to a year ago.
Also on the same EIA report, U.S. Exports of Finished Petroleum Products, Unfinished Oils, Gasoline Blending Components, Fuel Ethanol, and NGPLs and LRGs ‘cumulative daily average’ rose by almost 6% and it’s ‘four-week average’ increased by +2% for the week ending 10-27-23 compared to a year ago.
According to data from CEDIGAZ, “The United States exported more liquefied natural gas (LNG) than any other country in the first half of 2023. U.S. LNG exports averaged 11.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) during this period, 4% (0.5 Bcf/d) more than in the first-half of 2022, according to data from the U.S. Department of Energy’s LNG reports.” A good showing:
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60361
Despite resistance from this administration, U.S. LNG developers have initiated construction of new LNG Export Terminals in Louisiana (1) and Texas (2):
https://www.texastribune.org/2023/07/13/texas-brownsville-lng-natural-gas-export-terminal/
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/11/01/all_signs_point_to_full_steam_ahead_for_venture_global_and_lng_989987.html
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/BTL/2023/07-LNG/article.php
European allies increased their LNG imports from Russia by 50% so far in 2023. The UK’s BOE consumption levels are forecast to remain above their production levels through 2050, leaving a gap that will need to be filled by imports. But there are storm clouds ahead.
It is possible that this is due to the policies of this administration. Certainly the U.S. plans to assist in the EU allies meeting their LNG needs. The problem is this administration is actively obstructing the efforts to expand U.S. LNG capacity. Notice the status of Existing, Permitted, and Proposed U.S. LNG Export Terminals:
https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-03/FERC%2C%20N.%20American%20LNG%20export%20terminals_0.pdf
Also as an aside, GOM ‘Deep Water Export Terminals’ capable of handling Standard Crude Vessels and Heavy Duty Crude Carriers are about to get a boost due to their potential to increase U.S. Energy Exports:
https://www.offshore-mag.com/regional-reports/us-gulf-of-mexico/article/14295055/sea-port-oil-terminal-to-start-operations-by-2027-says-enterprise-official
https://rbnenergy.com/gulf-deep-mountain-high-the-race-to-build-texass-first-offshore-crude-export-terminal
We should all make an effort to remember this when voting …. Our leaders (president, senators, congress) must be focused on the economy and jobs in THIS country and not be an enabler in support of building wealth in Russia (or China). Non-responsive members should be voted out.
Mrs. Smith
Although I did not write the monologue for Jesse Watters, his viewpoints align so closely with mine that I felt obligated to share it here in case you missed it.
“Ford is losing $36,000 for every EV it sells…. This is what happens when companies start making cars for politicians instead of for customers …. The smart money is in Oil….”
I am very concerned about the possibility of the Ds passing a huge bailout for the Green New Deal. Another boondoggle for the taxpayers to pay for.
Momentum is building for oil exploration, and it is but a matter of time before investment interest returns to the E&P sector. And once the door for E&P investments opens just a crack, I expect John Seitz to be among the first ones through.
Link to video:
Green energy is a competitor to the oil industry, and by extension Gulfslope. So a discussion on green energy science-fiction meeting real energy common sense seems like it is worth our time.
The advice I offer progressives when it comes to things like a ‘hydrogen hub’, is to get the infrastructure support in place first.
Look at EVs as an example. Pushed on us by a progressive government, EVs turned out to be premature. First, they are not competitive in the marketplace. If you bought one you know what I mean. Even with the subsidies, they are too expensive. This is the first detriment towards EV ownership.
Next, once you buy one, everything is great until it is time to charge the battery. Does your parking garage at your job have charging facilities? If not and they install them, can you still afford to park there?
Same with parking at an apartment. Where to charge one of these? Lacking the ability to charge at home, who watches your children while you wait in line for hours at a charging facility miles away? I suppose you could take the kids with you.
If you move what will that cost? And will you have the same issues? If you own your home, is there infrastructure capacity to provide the power to charge the EV? What about if all your neighbors buy EVs too? So what if you no longer buy gasoline, all evidence points to you not saving any money by owning an EV. The second level of detriment.
Finally, how much of a financial hardship will be incurred if you buy one of these? They are way more expensive than an equivalent gasoline powered car. Will there be any equity once the loan is paid? What will be the resale value of a 6-yr old EV? When the battery needs replaced, will you be able to afford to replace it? Will there even be a replacement available? Or will you need to pay someone to haul it away to be recycled?
So once it is paid for, the fact is that the EV’s value could only be the salvage value. Looks like a giant pit to try and fill up with money. The pertinent question and final detriment to owning an EV seems to be ‘how does one benefit from the purchase of an EV’?
And the same can be said about hydrogen hubs.
If you are a company CEO thinking about investing in this, ask the CEO of Ford how many billions of dollars was lost on EVs.
If you are a shareholder in a company investing in hydrogen hubs, ask Ford investors how that company’s stock responded to these losses.
If you are a progressive politician, ask your constituents if they will vote for you again….
Is this just part of a plan to tear down the economy and our country so Joe can “Build Back Better” (his campaign slogan)? The question now is ‘who benefits if we build back better’? Certainly none of us. We will only get to pay for it.
With it getting nearer the time for the little goblins to appear I must wrap it up. So, I wish you all a very Happy Halloween.
Mrs. Smith
Good point spec. Regarding strategies implemented by U.S. oil companies to maximize ROI, even with this administration’s energy policies, E&P companies ignored the rhetoric and generated incredible profits. Case in point, for the first time ever, U.S. crude exploration and production is set to be the ‘biggest export item’ showing just how powerful U.S. oil and gas companies really are in the world market.
Crude production forecasts reflect the U.S. and Saudi Arabia will remain on a steady ascent through 2050. Compare that to the UK’s crude forecasts which are expected to show a steep decline in North Sea production after 2024. But the UK’s demand is projected to continue rising. Therefore, over the next +15 years, I anticipate U.S. crude exports to both Asia and the EU will also steadily increase.
Considering the geopolitical concerns and the growing global demand, one should plan and prepare for more oil and gas activities closer to home. We are fortunate that Gulfslope remains in the GOM game while the market realigns towards the pursuit of domestic oil and gas exploration. I am looking forward to the time when, after all is said and done, we can relax and enjoy a tall glass of lemonade.
Related article:
‘Oil Poised To Become U.S. Single Largest Export Product’
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Poised-To-Become-US-Single-Largest-Export-Product.html
Mrs. Smith
‘Hydrogen Hubs: Without Huge Subsidies the Math Doesn’t Work’
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/10/31/hydrogen_hubs_without_huge_subsidies_the_math_doesnt_work_989660.html
Mrs. Smith
My thoughts on the subject of oil investments from a more positive perspective.
Considering current world events, one must also consider the lessons learned from the past. So expect that these world events will overcome this administration’s desire to replace oil and gas in the marketplace.
Demand for oil and gas will continue unabated, and will likely even increase. This is not a coincidence. Petrochemicals and oil and gas are used in almost all products and activities found in our daily lives and nothing I see will change this.
The GOM Rig Count is up 57% from a year ago and is up 10% from last week. As of Friday, October 20th the total GOM rig count reflects 22 rigs.
Recall from history that, over a 5 month period near the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1987, the GOM Rig Count almost doubled and Offshore Louisiana held the title for the most increased output in the USA during this period.
The current focus by some on eliminating oil and gas and gasoline powered vehicles is based only on a political desire. It is a premature and doomed tactic that will not be the significant portion of any viable near-term energy future because the country will not support it and what is required in reductions for our standard of living.
Do not risk your principal by following the crowd seduced by the propaganda. The winds of necessity will ultimately blow the renewables crowd off to the side and out of the way until such time as future technologies provide the required economic solutions to make them competitive in the marketplace. They only exist now because of subsidies from your tax dollars and are still far too expensive. A bonafide short target perhaps?
Be ready for the next cycle. Geopolitics and capital investments near areas in conflict can be problematic and it is not uncommon for global commodity prices to experience large increases as a result of these hostilities. Now may be a good time to get positioned in oil and gas before the prices start trending upward. But, be warned, this is a time sensitive issue. Clock ticking.
The temporary suspension of oil sanctions with Venezuela appears to not have swayed the market away from serious concerns regarding production in the Middle East. And current events do nothing to reduce these tensions. Mostly it is the opposite. Please, fasten seatbelts and prepare for turbulence.
The moral to this story is to keep a portion of today’s investment dollars in oil and gas energy, particularly including a focus on the GOM and other U.S. assets. Especially those paying a dividend or anticipating large returns from drilling projects.
Although the typical market fluctuations will be present and offer trading opportunities, the trend will be that the value of energy investments will continue to escalate, with potential for pay outs far into the future. Remember, the SPR has been seriously depleted. Demand could become an issue. Production will be an ever more valuable commodity and the GOM will be right in the thick of it.
Be cautious to not be caught out of the market, as many of the significant upward moves could occur without prior warnings as oil traders position for critical growth in market share and lock-in long term contracts once they adjust to the market volatility and recognize that growth in demand for oil and gas is unavoidable.
As long as entering the markets for oil producers and oil drillers during this ‘lull’ before the prices rise, investors will be on the best path to ROI from energy earnings while still being capable of managing risk.
So now is the time to act. Again, time sensitive. It is not required that a move is made at the absolute lowest price, but it is better to not be too late to the party. It is no coincidence that integrated oil majors are making big moves worth a lot of money, like XOM in the Permian and CVX in Guyana. Contagion may follow them. Watch for it.
My advice? Prepare for another boom in energy. One that may last for a while.
Mrs. Smith
Chevron Buyout Highlights Renewed Focus On Production Growth
A few excerpts:
Any new merger announcement as sizable as Monday’s announced deal between Chevron and Hess inevitably invites comparisons to other recent deals of similar size. The obvious comparison point for this buyout is the deal between ExxonMobil and Pioneer Natural Resources announced less than two weeks earlier.
Andrew Dittmar, Senior Vice President at Enverus Intelligence Research (IER) said in an email that, “the common thread connecting these deals is majors looking to refill their pipelines to maintain production against a declining asset base as they anticipate their legacy businesses staying profitable into the 2030s.” Even more than that, Dittmar adds that the deal “indicates buyers are starting to place a higher focus on growth after years of solely looking to grow shareholder distributions.”
What it all appears to signal is that oil majors, after years of seemingly accepting a shrinking fate in their legacy business ventures, now see a landscape featuring rising demand for their production for decades to come and are investing to ensure they are able to meet those demands.
The bottom line is obviously, these deals by Chevron and ExxonMobil will place pressure on their competitors both in U.S. shale and internationally to respond with deals of their own designed to enable long-term growth in their own legacy oil and gas business segments. Potential buyers and sellers are always present in the upstream industry, and many will speculate about which will become involved in future mergers and buyouts.
Link to article:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2023/10/24/chevron-buyout-of-hess-highlights-renewed-focus-on-production-growth/?sh=424ce2dd4126&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Mrs. Smith
Big Oil’s Mega Acquisitions Raise Questions About Peak Oil Demand
A few excerpts:
Exxon made $56 billion in net earnings last year. This year, it used a sum slightly higher than the 2022 net total to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources, establishing itself as the leader in U.S. shale.
Two weeks later, Chevron, which had reported a twofold increase in profits last year, said it would take over peer Hess for $53 billion. Who’s next?
All industry observers seem to agree that the time was ripe for a consolidation wave in U.S. oil.
“We live in the real world, and have to allocate capital to meet real world demands,” Chevron’s chief executive Mike Wirth recently told the FT in an interview, adding that demand for oil will continue to grow beyond 2030.
Indeed, in its most recent forecast, OPEC said that oil demand will continue expanding until at least 2045, bringing into sharp relief the consistent underinvestment that has been a trend for years in the industry.
But now investors are returning to oil and gas, and they want some of those returns. For that, and to secure the supply of a critical commodity in a world still very much dependent on it, the oil majors need access to more production assets. In an environment with a shortage of unexplored assets, securing that access is much easier done through acquisitions.
“It is an arms race,” one source involved in M&A activity told the FT. “In most sectors, deal one doesn’t necessarily lead to deal two and deal three. I believe in this case it will, because timing is of the essence and the two largest players have made their moves.”
Link to article:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Big-Oils-Mega-Acquisitions-Raise-Questions-About-Peak-Oil-Demand.html
Mrs. Smith
Fossil Fuel Demand Set To Hit Record High In 2024
Excerpts from article:
Global energy and fossil fuel consumption is set to defy wars and high prices and hit a record high level in 2024, led by strong Asian demand, the Economist Intelligence Unit said in a new report on Wednesday.
Next year, global energy consumption is expected to increase by 1.8%, according to the EIU report.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Global-Fossil-Fuel-Demand-Set-To-Hit-Record-High-In-2024.amp.html
Mrs. Smith
Shell To Cut 15% Of Its Low-Carbon Jobs
Excerpt:
Shell plans to cut 15% of the 1,300 jobs in its Low Carbon Solutions business as it scales back some green energy ambitions and focuses on profitable projects including in the oil and gas sector.
Link to full article:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Shell-To-Cut-15-Of-Its-Low-Carbon-Jobs.amp.html
Mrs. Smith
Bidenomics pulls it’s head out and expels Hydrogen.
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/10/06/bidenomics_at_work_green_hydrogen_is_a_very_expensive_waste_of_money_984468.html
‘Bidenomics at work: Green Hydrogen Is a Very Expensive Waste of Money’
Making green hydrogen suffers from the very problem it is supposed to cure. The part-time, weather dependent, unreliability of wind and solar energy. Hydrogen storage is supposed to function as a sort of battery at scale, as well as powering cars, trucks, heavy equipment, and even planes.
Wind and solar are not a full-time source of electricity needed for the tremendous amount of full-time energy required to make hydrogen. Nor do they solve the water to hydrogen problem.
The inflation causing, $1.2 trillion green give away, also known as the Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act, includes $9 billion for hydrogen hubs. A hydrogen hub is where our federal government will waste billions with little or nothing to show for it.
It is not possible to make full-time, on demand energy or storage from part-time wind and solar energy.
Making “green” hydrogen requires massive amounts of full-time electricity. About 35% more energy than the hydrogen created contains.
Another way to say it, is a third of the energy is lost in the making. Then another third is lost in the use. Hydrogen is an expensive storage device.
In addition, when burned, hydrogen releases huge amounts of the most abundant greenhouse gas (GHG), water vapor. Which is 50 times more abundant than CO2 and is the dominant GHG.
Making green hydrogen at scale hasn’t been done yet. A lot of energy is needed to purify water, super heat it to 2,000°, electrocute it, super freeze it to near absolute zero, and compress it to three times the pressure of your average scuba tank.
Hydrogen creation needs lots of water. Perhaps contributing more GHGs than hydrogen is supposed to prevent. Gasp!
This super cold and compressed hydrogen escapes easily through metals and plastics. Hydrogen makes most metals brittle, causing leaks. If not managed correctly, large fireball explosions are likely. Accidents happen.
Remember the Hindenburg!
Not more than 5% hydrogen mixed with natural gas can be safely transported in today’s natural gas pipelines. Mix more than this embrittles the pipes. Because of this whole new pipeline systems, in addition to the three million miles of natural gas pipelines, will be needed.
This is expensive, not easy and will take many decades. And there will be thousands of highly volatile hydrogen filled semis on the road. That can explode! Endangering the public.
When hydrogen is shipped to another water basin, it will change weather patterns. There will be copious amounts of water released when hydrogen is used. Think of millions of hydrogen cars. There are 286 million cars on the road, just in the US.
Think of Denver, if half (350,000) of its cars are hydrogen. What will all that water vapor do to Denver’s weather and climate? Particularly in the winter? Cause more snow? More storms? More clouds?
More cloud cover means less sun. And cooler daytime temperatures and warmer nighttime temperatures. Causing lower solar panel electricity production. Maybe changing wind patterns. Causing less wind electricity production.
A large buildout of a brand new hydrogen network will cost ridiculous amounts of money and take decades to build. Think permitting hurdles, local opposition, driven by fear of explosions and ever escalating building costs.
In addition, it takes ridiculous amounts of water. Which precludes the chronically dry west from being a good location for hydrogen hubs. Bidens’s administration has already given a half a billion loan guarantee on a hub, on the edge of the desert, in Utah. Not wise.
Never mind that Utah gets less than 2% of their electricity from wind and solar. Where is the ‘renewable’ electricity for this green hydrogen hub going to come from? How much will that cost? Who will pay?
This brings us to Bidenomics, which makes everything more expensive, by making energy more expensive. Spending our tax money lavishly on unproductive wasteful spending for climate ideology. Adding to our estimated $33 trillion national debt. The interest payments on this is inflationary.
It is very costly building a replacement part-time wind and solar grid to replace our largely natural gas, coal, and nuclear-powered electricity or to run alongside it. Then spending even more on transmission wires and battery or hydrogen storage. This is one of the main reason our electric bills keep climbing.
This hurts the poor and middle class the most because they can least afford higher energy costs. And the Democrats shout social justice and claim to be for the poor.
Hydrogen is simply energy storage and has to be made at high cost. It must be made by other fuels and is costly to store and move around. And it explodes. What could go wrong?
Our government should not be subsidizing this with borrowed tax money. CO2 helps our plants grow and the Democrats are using it to help our deficit, national debt, national debt, and inflation grow.
WTI is expected to rise 9.25% to $90.91 in 2024, according to the latest EIA update.
This trend will continue, so I anticipate additional increases in crude prices going forward. You heard it here first.
To reuse a phrase from the past “Drill Baby. Drill.”
Bullish on crude! El Toro! Alcista! Optimista!
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/tables/pdf/2tab.pdf
Mrs. Smith
Worthy of your time. An objective video podcast (w/slideshow) of ‘informed’ minds discussing the “battle between molecules and electrons (oil and renewables) lead by the government in their attempt to takeover one of the three largest sectors of the economy”.
Link to video podcast with slideshow:
https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/FUk7d1sy
Mrs. Smith
Doubters Beware: U.S. Oil Production Setting New Records
Another Interesting article this one released by Forbes:
One of my 2023 energy sector predictions was that U.S. oil production would set a new all-time high this year. After record-setting production thus far this year, it would take a collapse along the lines of the huge Covid drop seen in the spring of 2020 for the U.S. to not set a new annual production record for 2023.
Given the fact that the Biden Administration hasn’t exactly been friendly to the U.S. oil industry, some may be puzzled by this production surge. There is a simple explanation. The price of oil, and technological innovations like hydraulic fracturing, are much more significant than any president’s policies.
For the first three quarters of 2023, U.S. oil production has averaged 12.8 million barrels per day (bpd). The previous annual record — set in 2019 just before the Covid-19 pandemic impacted production —was 12.3 million bpd.
U.S. weekly production at the end of September was 12.9 million bpd. That is 900,000 bpd higher than it was one year earlier. For the entire month of September, production also averaged around 12.9 million bpd, but July’s production was higher than September’s, at 12.99 million bpd. These numbers are just short of the previous monthly record of 13.0 million bpd set in November 2019.
The previous record for half a year of production was set in the second half of 2019 at 12.62 million bpd. But the first half of 2023 has slightly beaten that record with a production level of 12.69 million bpd.
Unless U.S. production averages 2 million bpd lower in the fourth quarter than current production of 12.9 million bpd, then a new oil production record will be set for the year. With nearly a full quarter to go in 2023, my prediction of a new annual production record is nearly baked in now.
Mrs. Smith
U.S. Crude Oil Exports Reach A Record High In First Half of 2023
Interesting EIA article released October 10, 2023:
U.S. crude oil exports in the first half of 2023 averaged 3.99 million barrels per day (b/d), which is a record high for the first half of a year since 2015, when the U.S. ban on most crude oil exports from the United States was repealed. In the first half of 2023, crude oil exports were up 650,000 b/d (19%) compared with the first half of 2022.
Europe was the largest regional destination for U.S. crude oil exports by volume, at 1.75 million b/d, led by exports to the Netherlands and UK. Asia was the regional destination with the next-highest volume, at 1.68 million b/d, led by exports to China and South Korea. The United States also exported significantly smaller volumes of crude oil to Canada, Africa, and Central America and South America.
Although exports increased in the first half of 2023, the United States still imports more crude oil than it exports, meaning it remains a net crude oil importer. The United States continues to import crude oil despite rising domestic crude oil production in part because many U.S. refineries are configured to process heavy, sour crude oil (with a low API gravity and high sulfur content) rather than the light, sweet crude oil (with a high API gravity and low sulfur content) typically produced in the United States.
U.S. crude oil imports come primarily from historical trading partners such as Mexico and Canada. Heavy, sour grades of crude oil are often discounted compared with light, sweet grades of crude oil because they require more complex refinery units to produce profitable yields of refined products such as motor gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Most U.S. crude oil imports take place when it is more profitable for U.S. refiners to process discounted heavier grades because those refineries have already invested in the additional complexity required to refine them.
The rapid increase in U.S. domestic production in the early 2010s increased domestic light, sweet crude oil production. Light, sweet grades of crude oil traditionally benefit from a price premium in the global crude oil market because they yield high amounts of profitable petroleum products from less complex refining processes.
Some U.S. refiners on the Gulf Coast have invested in expanding their light, sweet crude oil processing capacity. However, for many refiners, particularly in the Midwest and along the Gulf Coast, refining discounted heavy, sour crude oil grades remains more profitable.
2023 OPEC World Oil Outlook 2045 Executive Summary
See OPEC link for all data and graphs:
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/340.htm
Recent shifts and the re-consideration of energy transition policies and targets by governments across the world are placing greater emphasis on energy security. This outlook takes all these recent developments into account to provide a forward thinking and realistic outlook, that is based on a scientific approach and hard data. This outlook takes a relatively conservative approach as it assumes that already-enacted, let alone announced energy policies, will be comprehensively implemented.
Population growth drives energy demand requirements. Global population is expected to expand by around 1.5 billion from nearly eight billion in 2022 to about 9.5 billion by 2045. This will be driven by strong population growth in the Middle East & Africa and Other Asia. The global working-age population (aged between 15–64) is set to increase globally by 826 million over the forecast period, while the global urbanization rate is anticipated to rise from 57% in 2022 to 66% by 2045.
Average global economic growth is seen at 3% p.a. over the long-term. Global economic growth is expected to average 3% per annum (p.a.) over the forecast period. Thus, over the entire outlook, global GDP is set to almost double from $138 trillion in 2022 to $270 trillion in 2045 (on a 2017 PPP basis). With average long-term growth of 6.1% p.a., India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major developing country. China and India alone are set to account for more than a third of the global economy in 2045.
Global primary energy demand to increase by 23% to 2045, driven by non-OECD. Global primary energy demand is set to increase from around 291 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2022 to close to 359 mboe/d in 2045, an increase of 68.3 mboe/d, or 23% over the outlook period. Growth is expected to slow gradually from the relatively high short-term rates to more modest long-term increments, in line with moderating population and economic growth. Energy demand growth will be driven by the non-OECD region, which is set to increase by 69 mboe/d over the outlook period. Around 28% of non- OECD growth is expected to come from India alone. At the same time, energy demand in OECD countries is set to marginally decline in the outlook period.
The share of fossil fuels in the energy mix will drop from above 80% in 2022 to about 69% in 2045, due to the decline of coal. In the same period, the combined share of oil and gas in the energy mix still represents 54% in 2045.
Oil demand shows strong medium-term growth; long-term oil demand rises to 116 mb/d by 2045. Global oil demand is set to reach a level of 110.2 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2028, representing an increase of 10.6 mb/d compared to 2022. Non-OECD oil demand is expected to increase by a robust 10.1 mb/d, reaching a level of 63.7 mb/d by 2028. OECD demand will also increase by 0.5 mb/d over the medium-term.
In the long-term, global oil demand is expected to increase by more than 16 mb/d between 2022 and 2045, rising from 99.6 mb/d in 2022 to 116 mb/d in 2045. Non-OECD oil demand is expected to increase by almost 26 mb/d between 2022 and 2045. In contrast, OECD oil demand is set to contract by around 9.3 mb/d.
India leads in driving oil demand growth. The largest contributions to the non-OECD oil demand increase are set to come from India, Other Asia, China, Africa and the Middle East. India will add 6.6 mb/d to oil demand over the forecast period. Other Asia’s oil demand is set to increase by 4.6 mb/d, China’s by 4 mb/d, Africa’s by 3.8 mb/d and the Middle East’s by 3.6 mb/d.
Road transport, petrochemicals and aviation are key to oil demand growth. The largest incremental demand over the forecast period is projected for the road transportation, petrochemical and aviation sectors. Oil demand in these sectors is set to increase by 4.6 mb/d, 4.3 mb/d and 4.1 mb/d, respectively. With respect to refined products, major long-term demand growth is expected for jet/kerosene (4 mb/d) followed by ethane/liquefied petroleum gas (3.6 mb/d), diesel/gasoil (3.1 mb/d), naphtha (2.5 mb/d) and gasoline (2.5 mb/d).
Strong medium-term non-OPEC liquids supply growth, led by the US. Non-OPEC liquids supply is expected to grow from 65.8 mb/d in 2022 to 72.7 mb/d in 2028, or by almost 7 mb/d. Incremental supply in the US makes up nearly half of this, at 3.4 mb/d, with other major drivers being Brazil, Guyana, Canada, Qatar and Norway.
With US liquids supply set to peak around the end of the current decade, overall non-OPEC production starts declining from the early 2030s, eventually falling to 69.9 mb/d by 2045. Guyana, Canada, Argentina, Brazil and Kazakhstan are some of the few non-OPEC producers set to expand beyond the medium-term, but non-crude liquids including biofuels and other unconventionals will also keep increasing.
OPEC’s share of global liquids supply rises from 34% in 2022 to 40% in 2045. OPEC liquids will rise steadily in the medium-term from 34.2 mb/d in 2022 to 37.7 mb/d, and further to 46.1 mb/d by 2045. Thus, OPEC’s share of global liquids supply will increase from 34% in 2022 to 40% in 2045.
Oil investment requirements total $14 trillion by 2045. Investment requirements for the overall oil sector, between 2022 and 2045, are estimated at a cumulative $14 trillion (in 2023 $US), or around $610 billion p.a. on average. Of this, $11.1 trillion is expected to be required in the upstream sector, or an average of $480 billion p.a. Downstream and midstream requirements are estimated at $1.7 and $1.2 trillion, respectively. If these investments do not materialize, it represents a considerable challenge and risk to market stability and energy security.
Long-term crude and condensate trade flows rise to above 45 mb/d by 2045. Driven by strong demand growth, global interregional crude and condensate trade is expected to reach levels above 39.3 mb/d in 2025, up by more than 3 mb/d relative to 2022 levels. After 2025, total crude and condensate flows are set to increase gradually to 45.3 mb/d by 2045, driven by rising oil demand and declining supply in importing regions. Major contributors to the export growth are the Middle East, Latin America and the US & Canada.
Asia-Pacific remains by far the largest destination for crude exports. The Asia-Pacific remains by far the main destination for global crude and condensate exports. Total imports increase gradually from 23 mb/d in 2022 to 32.6 mb/d in 2045. This translates into its share of the global interregional trade rising from around 64% in 2022 to almost 72% in 2045.
***Posters here do not toot their own horn, well…., nonetheless three years ago I stated this administration would deplete our SPR without any true intentions of replenishing it. My statement still holds today. The SPR has dropped by almost 41% under this administration. Those fools.
Mrs. Smith
Key Assumptions in the 2023 OPEC World Outlook:
• Sustainable energy and economic prosperity for all requires the use of all sources of energy and the deployment of all relevant technologies with unprecedented levels of investment and collaboration, and with energy security, economic development and reducing emissions going hand-in-hand.
• This outlook takes all this on board, including recent shifts and the re-consideration of policies and targets related to energy transitions by governments across the world, to provide a forward thinking and realistic outlook that is based on a scientific approach and hard data.
• This outlook takes a relatively conservative approach as it assumes that already- enacted, let alone announced energy policies will be fully or comprehensively implemented.
• The global population is estimated to expand by around 1.5 billion from its present level of almost eight billion in 2022 to around 9.5 billion by 2045.
• Driven by the Middle East & Africa and other Asia, non-OECD population growth is projected to be much higher than the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
• The relative share of the global working-age population is expected to decline from 65% in 2022 to 63% in 2045, despite increasing by 826 million over the outlook period.
• The global urbanized population is projected to grow by 1.7 billion, increasing from 57% in 2022 to 66% by 2045.
• Global GDP growth between 2022 and 2045 is expected to remain robust and increase at an average rate of 3% p.a.
• With an average GDP growth of 6.1% p.a. over the projection period, India is set to remain the fastest-growing major developing country.
• Global GDP is projected to almost double, from around $138 trillion in 2022 to $270 trillion in 2045, all in 2017 purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.
• China and India alone are set to account for more than a third of the global economy in 2045. The OECD region’s share of the global economy is expected to drop from 46% in 2022 to 34% in 2045.
• Existing and future technologies will significantly contribute to shaping the future energy landscape. The development and deployment of various technologies also helps to set the scene for the Reference Case.
• Hydrogen is perceived in the context of energy transitions as a possible solution to some climate challenges, playing the role of an energy carrier.
Evidently, BlackRock is looking beyond ESG and is focusing on making a profit. So, they are forgoing investments in renewable energies and putting their money in good old-fashioned oil and gas.
Speaking of renewables, the recent GOM lease sale for offshore wind was a DUD! Compare that to offshore GOM oil and gas lease sales where demand is increasing. The last lease sale generated $251 million compared to offshore Wind in the GOM region at $5.6 million.
Also, recognize that many of these renewable projects are doomed to be unprofitable for investors. Their costs are not competitive to oil and gas. High interest rates will do that to you. Some of these projects are being cancelled before they are even built.
The moral to the story is to be wary of investments in renewables if you want an ROI.
Put that in your pipe and short it.
Link to BlackRock article:
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/report-exxonmobil-selling-majority-stake-in-italy-lng-terminal-to-blackrock/
Mrs. Smith
“OPEC has raised its medium-and long-term oil demand outlook in a forthcoming report, three OPEC sources said, despite the transition toward renewable energy….
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is scheduled to update its long-term oil demand forecasts in its 2023 World Oil Outlook on Oct. 9, which is being launched in Riyadh, the capital of top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia….”
OPEC page link to the 2023 World Oil Outlook:
(2023 Outlook scheduled to be released next week)
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/340.htm
In spite of the 2.2 million barrel decline in crude inventories this week, WTI had a larger than usual price fluctuation due to an unanticipated build in gasoline stocks. However, it should not take long to work through that.
Mrs. Smith
Finally, at last,
‘BOEM Announces Updated Terms for Gulf of Mexico Oil and Gas Lease Sale’
Reflects Court-directed timing and terms, Release Date 10/05/2023, New Orleans, LA
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/10/06/2023-22316/gulf-of-mexico-outer-continental-shelf-oil-and-gas-lease-sale-261
“In response to a ruling from the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit (Court), the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) will publish its updated Final Notice of Sale (FNOS) for Gulf of Mexico Oil and Gas Lease Sale 261 in the Federal Register on Friday, Oct. 6, 2023. BOEM plans to conduct the lease sale on Nov. 8, 2023.
Pursuant to direction from the Court, Lease Sale 261 will offer approximately 13,618 blocks on 72.7 million acres on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf in the Western, Central, and Eastern Planning Areas in the Gulf of Mexico. The Court directed BOEM to include lease blocks that were previously excluded due to potential impacts to the Rice’s whale population from oil and gas activities in the Gulf of Mexico, and to remove portions of a related stipulation meant to address those potential impacts from the lease terms for any leases that may result from Lease Sale 261.
On Sept. 26, 2023, BOEM announced it would not hold Lease Sale 261 on Sept.27, 2023, as originally planned due to the Court’s ruling the day before. The order provided BOEM additional time for a more orderly lease sale process.
The FNOS and a map of the lease sale area are available at http://www.boem.gov/sale-261.
Mrs. Smith
Those that do not appreciate the impact the price of crude oil has on the E&P industry are not paying attention. For example, the 3rd Quarter Dallas Federal Reserve Survey conducted on 98 E&P companies reveals significantly healthy increases across the following categories.
E&P QUANTITATIVE INDICATORS FROM THE SURVEY:
Level of Business Activity climbed to 23 from 1
Oil Production expanded to 27 from 8
Natural Gas Wellhead Production increased to 15 from 2
Capital Expenditures grew to 31 from 10
Expected Level of Capital Expenditures Next Year jumped to 36 from 2
Company Outlook surged to 47 from a -8
Lease Operating Expenses welcomed a slight decrease to 25.6 from 26
Although Employment fell, Employee Hours increased.
Additionally, the 2023 forecast of the EIA’s September Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is for the total GOM oil production to increase by 7% from the previous year. 2024 total GOM oil production is forecast to increase by 3% to 694 million barrels from 675 million barrels.
And recall, the September EIA STEO forecasts World and Domestic consumption in 2024 to increase by 1.4% and 1%, respectively.
Be assured that John Seitz is pointing out these realities to all potential investors. We will have to see if any of these developments translate into positive news for Gulfslope Energy.
The push for EVs to supplant ICE vehicles in the USA is well under way. Expectations are China will dominate in future EV sales, so the question is how does the USA benefit? Or the World?
In 2022 only 14% of the vehicles sold worldwide were electric. Out of the 1.4 Billion light vehicle sales, roughly 26 million were EVs. The U.S. had 8% of the EV total, while China had 30%. Which by the way, those EVs are powered by coal generated electricity.
So does the USA benefit from imposing regulations that reduce oil exploration, increase inflation, and put our jobs and standard of living at risk? Stifling production in the U.S. will only relocate production someplace where clean energy is not a high priority. It is well documented that U.S. greenhouse gas emissions are among the lowest compared to other regions around the world. In fact, as a whole, GOM oil production, refining and it’s combustion are one of the lowest global emitters. Reducing U.S. emissions is not a solution if it results in increasing global emissions.
Which brings the question of what is the agenda behind this heavy push for EVs? The market place has proven that EVs are not competitive with ICE vehicles. So appearances are this is more of a political maneuver than a climate goal. The FERC and EPA environmental appointees and bureaucrats of this president will ultimately have to answer to the American people. As will he.
To quote the 44th POTUS “elections have consequences”.
I have been curious about whether or not we that support the oil and gas industry are on the right side of the debate. Considering all the facts and statistics mentioned above, I say we are in the ‘sweet spot’.
Mrs. Smith
Thank you for keeping on top of things. Always interesting when reading your posts.
Yes, the tide is out but our GSPE boat is safely in the channel.
I feel that it is very likely WTI will hit $100 before EOY. Hopefully it will not stay there that long, because of the potential for an economic slowdown.
In the meantime, crude prices say being in the oil game is where the money is.
Mrs. Smith
After sorting through the mumbo jumbo that is the EIA’s Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) for WTI, I am left with the following observations which may be of particular interest to energy investors.
Firstly, the increases are neither too high nor occurring too quickly to have serious negative repercussions on our economy. And an upward trend like this is almost always positive news. So, this is support and stability in the right direction.
The September EIA forecast for WTI ‘average’ price per barrel in 2023 and 2024 is $79.65 and $83.22, respectively. This is an increase from the prior month of 2.4% in 2023 and 1.14% in 2024.
Next, as the number one economy in the world, the US will continue to support WTI pricing due to the increasing demand for gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, electrical power generation (domestic use and global exports), etc.
In fact, the September EIA STEO forecasts World and Domestic consumption in 2024 to increase by 1.4% and 1%, respectively.
Additionally, the Congressional Budget Office’s July update to their Economic Outlook through 2025, forecasts consumer spending to “strengthen in late 2024 as interest rates decline and in 2025 as both interest rates and unemployment decline.” In the agency’s projections, real consumer spending increases by 1.1 percent in 2024, and by 2.0 percent in 2025.
And recall that OPEC will continue it’s production cuts through the end of 2023.
All in all, not bad forecasts. So perhaps prospective partners may begin to feel more confident in future energy investments.
Mrs. Smith
Did WTI just hit a one year high?
This may be of interest since, with limited SPR for Joe to throw into the oil markets again, there is the likelihood that prices will fail to moderate.
Perhaps this will cause potential partners to make a deal to purchase production sooner rather than later.
Mrs. Smith
With the increasing demands for fossil fuels on the horizon, and WTI prices above $87, pressures will mount for producers and investors alike to get deals done. I think this is where we should concentrate our crystal ball gazing for the best pay out.
Once we have more stable activity developing for Gulfslope Energy, the charts will become more reliable forecasting tools for GSPE shares.
While this path may not be quick, effortless, or risk free, it is my belief that this is the opportunity seasoned and successful traders seek. And there are several of those among the readers here.
As always, follow the fundamentals, manage the risk, and do not be distracted from the prize.
Mrs. Smith
The only ones working harder to make a deal than the management team are the oil producers who are trading WTI for over $85 a barrel, and the shorts that still need to cover.
Find the critical distinction between these perspectives. Those providing the cash to keep the company going have seen the evidence and found it to be compelling. They have spoken their support with large sums of money. Compare this action to those who drive the share price lower. Nothing is offered for support of them. Shareholders take all risks and all losses. And at the right price, detractors will still buy your shares.
Which way offers the best path forward? Those saying “nothing here folks” or those providing large sums of money to move ahead? Those plotting for the end, or those offering the wealth of discovery? I find it an easy choice.
Without news, the charts often document the effectiveness of the onslaught of rhetoric used by detractors to undermine the stock for their personal benefit.
But news will always trump rhetoric. My vote is to Trump.
Adieu,
Mrs. Smith
Spec, I was checking for oil news during lunch and guess what is occurring in the GOM right now off the coast of Galveston, Tx?
Evidently a tanker carrying Iranian crude was spotted off the coast of Singapore in February 2022. The U.S. seized the embargoed cargo and transported it to Galveston, Tx in May 2023.
The crude is currently in the process of ship to ship transfer. The transfer had been delayed this long due to the U.S. Navy sending assets to the Persian Gulf after threats of retaliation from Iran.
The ship transporting the confiscated crude is owned by a company in Los Angeles. The 800,000 barrel cargo is reportedly worth $56M.
I only point this out because of your recent post referring to black market crude smuggling operations, which I assumed occurred in the GOM. Looks to be more widespread than I believed. I suppose they get away with it more often than not.
At this point WTI is holding about $81 (better than $69) and I do not expect it to ‘tank’.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-tanker-unloading-suspected-embargoed-iranian-oil-despite-tehrans-warnings/
https://www.khou.com/article/news/local/iran-oil-tanker-offloading-galveston-texas/285-e6b93fc2-d719-44e6-94ac-fe17fc554045
Mrs. Smith
For now the team is working 14 hour days (and more) to get a critical report ready on time, so I really have not had the opportunity to get back to you with a prompt reply. But I wanted to give a response, and this is it, brief as it must be.
So, some would hope the 10-Q was worse if they were the owners of a portion of the millions of shares that were recently shorted. More shares owned that were short, more the hope for a worse 10-Q.
Perhaps one-third of all recent trades consisted of short activity. So maybe 10M shares per week? Up until the 10-Q. I lack the time to delve into this and get a firm, accurate number. Be my guest.
In my opinion, the real risk to shorts is the next time we hear from the management team, we could be getting news that will set the shares off and up.
No, I do not know when. Could be anytime though. And prices could move way up from here.
Probably about time for shorts to bite the bullet and buy shares to cover. Even if needing to pay more than desired, as looks like the case. And shares for sale are not plentiful in the volumes needed. Better get them when you can.
My advice is to stay focused on the target. Look for changes in fundamentals. And do not be easily swayed by the rhetoric of those wanting to change the perception to support their desired outcome.
Just sit tight. The near term should work out for longs.
This was not an educational post, nor was it intended as a tutorial on shorting stocks either. This was only a basic explanation of the meaning behind ‘some wanted the 10-Q to be worse’.
Good luck to you all.
Feel free to correct me where I am going wrong.
Back at it for me.
Mrs. Smith