After sorting through the mumbo jumbo that is the EIA’s Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) for WTI, I am left with the following observations which may be of particular interest to energy investors.
Firstly, the increases are neither too high nor occurring too quickly to have serious negative repercussions on our economy. And an upward trend like this is almost always positive news. So, this is support and stability in the right direction.
The September EIA forecast for WTI ‘average’ price per barrel in 2023 and 2024 is $79.65 and $83.22, respectively. This is an increase from the prior month of 2.4% in 2023 and 1.14% in 2024.
Next, as the number one economy in the world, the US will continue to support WTI pricing due to the increasing demand for gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, electrical power generation (domestic use and global exports), etc.
In fact, the September EIA STEO forecasts World and Domestic consumption in 2024 to increase by 1.4% and 1%, respectively.
Additionally, the Congressional Budget Office’s July update to their Economic Outlook through 2025, forecasts consumer spending to “strengthen in late 2024 as interest rates decline and in 2025 as both interest rates and unemployment decline.” In the agency’s projections, real consumer spending increases by 1.1 percent in 2024, and by 2.0 percent in 2025.
And recall that OPEC will continue it’s production cuts through the end of 2023.
All in all, not bad forecasts. So perhaps prospective partners may begin to feel more confident in future energy investments.
Mrs. Smith
