GulfSlope Energy Inc (GSPE)

[smith199]

2023 OPEC World Oil Outlook 2045 Executive Summary

See OPEC link for all data and graphs:
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/340.htm

Recent shifts and the re-consideration of energy transition policies and targets by governments across the world are placing greater emphasis on energy security. This outlook takes all these recent developments into account to provide a forward thinking and realistic outlook, that is based on a scientific approach and hard data. This outlook takes a relatively conservative approach as it assumes that already-enacted, let alone announced energy policies, will be comprehensively implemented.

Population growth drives energy demand requirements. Global population is expected to expand by around 1.5 billion from nearly eight billion in 2022 to about 9.5 billion by 2045. This will be driven by strong population growth in the Middle East & Africa and Other Asia. The global working-age population (aged between 15–64) is set to increase globally by 826 million over the forecast period, while the global urbanization rate is anticipated to rise from 57% in 2022 to 66% by 2045.

Average global economic growth is seen at 3% p.a. over the long-term. Global economic growth is expected to average 3% per annum (p.a.) over the forecast period. Thus, over the entire outlook, global GDP is set to almost double from $138 trillion in 2022 to $270 trillion in 2045 (on a 2017 PPP basis). With average long-term growth of 6.1% p.a., India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major developing country. China and India alone are set to account for more than a third of the global economy in 2045.

Global primary energy demand to increase by 23% to 2045, driven by non-OECD. Global primary energy demand is set to increase from around 291 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2022 to close to 359 mboe/d in 2045, an increase of 68.3 mboe/d, or 23% over the outlook period. Growth is expected to slow gradually from the relatively high short-term rates to more modest long-term increments, in line with moderating population and economic growth. Energy demand growth will be driven by the non-OECD region, which is set to increase by 69 mboe/d over the outlook period. Around 28% of non- OECD growth is expected to come from India alone. At the same time, energy demand in OECD countries is set to marginally decline in the outlook period.

The share of fossil fuels in the energy mix will drop from above 80% in 2022 to about 69% in 2045, due to the decline of coal. In the same period, the combined share of oil and gas in the energy mix still represents 54% in 2045.

Oil demand shows strong medium-term growth; long-term oil demand rises to 116 mb/d by 2045. Global oil demand is set to reach a level of 110.2 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2028, representing an increase of 10.6 mb/d compared to 2022. Non-OECD oil demand is expected to increase by a robust 10.1 mb/d, reaching a level of 63.7 mb/d by 2028. OECD demand will also increase by 0.5 mb/d over the medium-term.

In the long-term, global oil demand is expected to increase by more than 16 mb/d between 2022 and 2045, rising from 99.6 mb/d in 2022 to 116 mb/d in 2045. Non-OECD oil demand is expected to increase by almost 26 mb/d between 2022 and 2045. In contrast, OECD oil demand is set to contract by around 9.3 mb/d.

India leads in driving oil demand growth. The largest contributions to the non-OECD oil demand increase are set to come from India, Other Asia, China, Africa and the Middle East. India will add 6.6 mb/d to oil demand over the forecast period. Other Asia’s oil demand is set to increase by 4.6 mb/d, China’s by 4 mb/d, Africa’s by 3.8 mb/d and the Middle East’s by 3.6 mb/d.

Road transport, petrochemicals and aviation are key to oil demand growth. The largest incremental demand over the forecast period is projected for the road transportation, petrochemical and aviation sectors. Oil demand in these sectors is set to increase by 4.6 mb/d, 4.3 mb/d and 4.1 mb/d, respectively. With respect to refined products, major long-term demand growth is expected for jet/kerosene (4 mb/d) followed by ethane/liquefied petroleum gas (3.6 mb/d), diesel/gasoil (3.1 mb/d), naphtha (2.5 mb/d) and gasoline (2.5 mb/d).

Strong medium-term non-OPEC liquids supply growth, led by the US. Non-OPEC liquids supply is expected to grow from 65.8 mb/d in 2022 to 72.7 mb/d in 2028, or by almost 7 mb/d. Incremental supply in the US makes up nearly half of this, at 3.4 mb/d, with other major drivers being Brazil, Guyana, Canada, Qatar and Norway.

With US liquids supply set to peak around the end of the current decade, overall non-OPEC production starts declining from the early 2030s, eventually falling to 69.9 mb/d by 2045. Guyana, Canada, Argentina, Brazil and Kazakhstan are some of the few non-OPEC producers set to expand beyond the medium-term, but non-crude liquids including biofuels and other unconventionals will also keep increasing.

OPEC’s share of global liquids supply rises from 34% in 2022 to 40% in 2045. OPEC liquids will rise steadily in the medium-term from 34.2 mb/d in 2022 to 37.7 mb/d, and further to 46.1 mb/d by 2045. Thus, OPEC’s share of global liquids supply will increase from 34% in 2022 to 40% in 2045.

Oil investment requirements total $14 trillion by 2045. Investment requirements for the overall oil sector, between 2022 and 2045, are estimated at a cumulative $14 trillion (in 2023 $US), or around $610 billion p.a. on average. Of this, $11.1 trillion is expected to be required in the upstream sector, or an average of $480 billion p.a. Downstream and midstream requirements are estimated at $1.7 and $1.2 trillion, respectively. If these investments do not materialize, it represents a considerable challenge and risk to market stability and energy security.

Long-term crude and condensate trade flows rise to above 45 mb/d by 2045. Driven by strong demand growth, global interregional crude and condensate trade is expected to reach levels above 39.3 mb/d in 2025, up by more than 3 mb/d relative to 2022 levels. After 2025, total crude and condensate flows are set to increase gradually to 45.3 mb/d by 2045, driven by rising oil demand and declining supply in importing regions. Major contributors to the export growth are the Middle East, Latin America and the US & Canada.

Asia-Pacific remains by far the largest destination for crude exports. The Asia-Pacific remains by far the main destination for global crude and condensate exports. Total imports increase gradually from 23 mb/d in 2022 to 32.6 mb/d in 2045. This translates into its share of the global interregional trade rising from around 64% in 2022 to almost 72% in 2045.


***Posters here do not toot their own horn, well…., nonetheless three years ago I stated this administration would deplete our SPR without any true intentions of replenishing it. My statement still holds today. The SPR has dropped by almost 41% under this administration. Those fools.






Mrs. Smith