Key Assumptions in the 2023 OPEC World Outlook:
• Sustainable energy and economic prosperity for all requires the use of all sources of energy and the deployment of all relevant technologies with unprecedented levels of investment and collaboration, and with energy security, economic development and reducing emissions going hand-in-hand.
• This outlook takes all this on board, including recent shifts and the re-consideration of policies and targets related to energy transitions by governments across the world, to provide a forward thinking and realistic outlook that is based on a scientific approach and hard data.
• This outlook takes a relatively conservative approach as it assumes that already- enacted, let alone announced energy policies will be fully or comprehensively implemented.
• The global population is estimated to expand by around 1.5 billion from its present level of almost eight billion in 2022 to around 9.5 billion by 2045.
• Driven by the Middle East & Africa and other Asia, non-OECD population growth is projected to be much higher than the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
• The relative share of the global working-age population is expected to decline from 65% in 2022 to 63% in 2045, despite increasing by 826 million over the outlook period.
• The global urbanized population is projected to grow by 1.7 billion, increasing from 57% in 2022 to 66% by 2045.
• Global GDP growth between 2022 and 2045 is expected to remain robust and increase at an average rate of 3% p.a.
• With an average GDP growth of 6.1% p.a. over the projection period, India is set to remain the fastest-growing major developing country.
• Global GDP is projected to almost double, from around $138 trillion in 2022 to $270 trillion in 2045, all in 2017 purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.
• China and India alone are set to account for more than a third of the global economy in 2045. The OECD region’s share of the global economy is expected to drop from 46% in 2022 to 34% in 2045.
• Existing and future technologies will significantly contribute to shaping the future energy landscape. The development and deployment of various technologies also helps to set the scene for the Reference Case.
• Hydrogen is perceived in the context of energy transitions as a possible solution to some climate challenges, playing the role of an energy carrier.
