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Last time, I said that a FL/FS 2X Sell and an Options Oscillator Sell ought to bring some selling, but that such was not a lay-up. Not a lay-up, indeed. I reminded readers, and myself, that "they" were going to try to wear the Bears out before "they" take the market down in earnest. Well, yup. I was looking for the rally to fade and for the market to fall into a low today, and then rally. We're obviously off a bit, but if we translate a day right on the chart, we might be about right. The FL/FS Sell is still in force as is the Options Oscillator. They ought to get right sooner rather than later. The other P/C's are either neutral or supportive of more selling, too. There are a lot of Bulls in the message board poll too. Breadth remains negative, so the Bears have a lot at their back, but the trend...i.e. price is still heading up.
Last time, I said that the Bears had a bit more at their back with NAAIM on an unconfirmed Sell, the SPX:CBOE and IT momentum negative, and another Sell from the Senticator and lots of Bulls in the Weekly Fearless Forecaster poll. I was and am pretty sure that we will get some selling, but it's early still and we were fighting an Options Oscillator Buy. It was. Today, we've got a FL/FS 2X Sell and an Options Oscillator Sell. This ought to bring some selling, but it's not a lay-up. Don't get too excited about the down side here. Remember, they're going to try to wear the Bears out before it falls in earnest. My call was and is still for the rally to fade today and for the market to fall into a low on Wednesday, and then higher for the end of the week (subject to revision).
Last week, I said that a lot had turned marginally higher, most notably the SPX:CBOE, and the Short, IT, and LT momentum and our "Best Trend Indicator" had turned back up. We said that this market had more lives than a cat. I had some reason to look for a bit of selling, but I was not willing to bet too much on an immediate decline. This week, the Bears have a bit more at their back. NAAIM actually went to (an unconfirmed) Sell. The SPX:CBOE also turned negative and the IT momentum marginally turned down. We also have another Sell from the Senticator, too and lots of Bulls in the Weekly Fearless Forecaster poll. I'm pretty sure that we get some selling, but it's early still and the Options Oscillator Buy is going to make Monday a bit harder for the Bears. Don't get too excited about the down side here. It's still early in the game. My call is for a rally that fades late Monday or on Tuesday, falling into a low on Wednesday, and then higher for the end of the week.
For at least the last two or three weeks I've been having problems posting in this forum. Has anyone else been having trouble on and off?
Last time, I said that long-term Momentum and the CBOE:SPX turned down, and while that was Bearish, it was unsupported by the IT Momentum. Well, IT Momentum turned down but it's not confirmed. It's better for the Bearish case, but not strong. Now, of course, we've got some other factors that help the Bearish case. The Options Oscillator is flashing a Sell and so is Market Harmonics. That all suggests a bit of weakness today and maybe over the coming days. Of more concern longer term is that NAAIM went to a Sell. Now, this isn't actionable by itself, but given that breadth is already negative on the faster measures, we need to pay a little attention here. Mitigating this is the fact that the cumulative breadth is very positive still and so is the trend. The market is showing good resilience (how many end-of-day saves have we seen???). I don't think it's time to abandon ship on longs, but I would be careful adding on this pullback. We are watching carefully.
I just checked the charts again and TRIN was a sell on the 22nd, along with the other six signals. That's a sell signal for the system.
The signals Don is using on his website are not identical to the ones I'm using on TSP Talk. I'm still using his original system. I did not want to deviate from that because Don was tweeking his system in a manner that I wasn't sure would benefit those of us with restricted trading rules. Generally speaking, his current system and the one I'm using are very close in terms of when they each trigger buy and sells. However, he is still on a buy at the moment, but barely. And he's raised his risk aversion as he's now only 20% long.
Seven Sentinels went to a sell yesterday. That last buy signal was awesome.
Last time, I said that a lot turned marginally higher, most notably the SPX:CBOE as well as Short, IT, and LT momentum. We noted that this market had more lives than a cat. We had expected the Options Oscillator Sell to deliver a decline but it sure wasn't much. Now, we've got an Options Oscillator Buy. Worse for the Bears, the Message Board polls not only flashed another Buy, they came in with a ton of partially short Bears. They love to shake the partially short Bears loose, so we ought to be prepared for some Buying. The fly in the ointment is that we're still on the tag end of an Options Oscillator Sell, so we could well get some crazy trading early today. I know that we are overdue for a decline, but I'd not be too willing to bet much on it too soon. We've been around long enough to know that the market will tend to put in an IT top when the Bears are worn down to a nubbin. That means lots of false starts and snap back rallies. When it's time to short, most Bears will be too gun shy to actually position for the decline that they've been predicting for weeks. Don't ask me how I know!
Last week, I said that it was important that momentum turned down and confirmed and as did the SPX:CBOE. That was very Bearish. The problem was that EVERYBODY turned Bearish and fast; the WSS surveyees, the message board pollees, and the options guys all got Beared-up. I allowed that we could fall more, but I just couldn't an easy trip for the Bears. It sure wasn't!. So, now, what's the deal? Well, a lot turned marginally higher. The SPX:CBOE turned up and Short, IT, and LT momentum turned marginally higher. Our "Best Trend Indicator" had curled over and was threatening a Sell, but Friday, it turned back up. That makes it harder still on the Bears. It's also very telling--this market has more lives than a cat. On the other hand, the Options Oscillator flashed a strong Sell. That suggests some selling, as does the Senticator. I'm just not willing to bet too much on an immediate decline. My call is for a rally that fades on Tuesday, falling into a low on Thursday morning and then higher for the end of the week.
Last time, I said that while negative momentum and a negative SPX:CBOE were very Bearish, I was not soo Bearish as EVERYBODY seemed to agree with me and quickly: the WSS surveyees were all Beared up, as were the message board pollees, and the VIX spiked big. The Options Oscillator was also on a strong Buy as was the FL/FS. And so we rallied. Today, we've got some much more iffy sentiment but the FL/FS is flashing a repeat Buy. The poll has a ton of Bears in it too. The thing is, there are also a ton of partially long Bulls. This and the sells from the options suggest to me that we'll sell down prior to a rally. We got that rally on Monday. Let's see if it fails and trades down into Today. If so, it's probably a Buy. Tough going for the Bears. Remember this is options expiration week so chances are, we won't fall apart but we could get some odd trading.
Last time, I said that while negative momentum and a negative SPX:CBOE were very Bearish, I was not soo Bearish as EVERYBODY seemed to agree with me and quickly: the WSS surveyees were all Beared up, as were the message board pollees, and the VIX spiked big. The Options Oscillator was also on a strong Buy as was the FL/FS. And so we rallied. Today, we've got some much more iffy sentiment but the FL/FS is flashing a repeat Buy. The poll has a ton of Bears in it too. The thing is, there are also a ton of partially long Bulls. This and the sells from the options suggest to me that we'll sell down prior to a rally. We got that rally on Monday. Let's see if it fails and trades down into Today. If so, it's probably a Buy. Tough going for the Bears. Remember this is options expiration week so chances are, we won't fall apart but we could get some odd trading.
Last week, I said that we were very due a correction and while last week would be a great time to get it, the trend was up and the risk reduction tools were Bullish. We said that the current data STILL wasn't giving us much reason to fear this market. So we rallied all week until selling down on Friday. Interestingly, the AAII data showed a big Bullish shift, implying some selling, but it was only that tool that was flashing a Sell, and it's less relevant than it could be. Still, I suppose it's a start. What's more important is that momentum turned down and confirmed and so did the SPX:CBOE. That's very Bearish. The problem is, EVERYBODY turned Bearish and fast. The WSS surveyees are all Beared up. The message board pollees are all Beared up. The VIX spiked big, and the Options Oscillator gave a strong Buy so the options guys are all Beared up too. And don't forget we're on a FL/FS Buy still. We can certainly fall more, but I just can't see this as being an easy trip for the Bears to make money from. The Greek thing is not particularly settled, though it's likely that it will be resolved to the betterment of the market. Still, burps and hiccups can send the market down for a bit. My call is for a rally that fails on Monday and trades down into Tuesday. Then up through Wednesday, and then chop lower through Friday. Remember this is options expiration week so chances are, we won't fall apart but we could get some odd trading.
Last time, I said that the options were a little bit Bearish, but not heavily so and there were a lot of partially long Bulls in the message board polls too so we'd allow for selling. I just wasn't very excited about it. I warned that, we could be much, much higher before a big sell off. That's still a possibility. I don't think it is, but I'm finding myself wanting to short, despite not having even short-term signals. That doesn't preclude a decline, but it's not very supportive of such. Right now, the options aren't much help and neither is the Message Board poll. Now, AAII had a big Bullish spike and that's Bearish, but individual investors have largely been marginalized, so that "sell" isn't much of one. Today, NAAIM reports and we're close enough to a Sell that we'll be paying attention to those numbers. Note that even if we do get a Sell, we take no action without serious technical support.
Last time, I said that while the Options Oscillator Sell was still active, the Buy made it more difficult to get much going on the down side. It was. We were and are open to some selling but again, I'm not going to get real excited about it. Not yet, anyway. A pullback would be good for the market and would allow more upside, sooner, but that's about all we can look for, for now. The options are a little bit Bearish, but now heavily so. There are a lot of partially long Bulls in the message board polls too. That'll allow for selling, but the thing that keeps me in this market is the large number of folks fighting the rally. Look it doesn't matter if the Europeans fix all their problems. What matters is the perception and the money. There's lots of money. Don't worry about bonds. If bonds do poorly, money fill peel out of them faster than fast and go into stocks. It's possible that we'll be much, much higher before a big sell of. I think not, but it's really a legitimate possibility.
Last week, I said that things looked lower, plain and simple...except that the trend indicators and breadth were still looking pretty good. And we were still in a Bull market. And earnings weren't so bad. Obviously, I thought we were in for more weakness, but again, I didn't think it would be a cake-walk. Yup. Down a bit but up more. This week, we've turned momentum up and the CBOE:SPX as well. The Options Oscillator is very Bearish, as is the VIX and even better, we have a MACD "Best Fade" Sell. We're going to get some selling this week and probably on Monday. We are so very due a correction and this would be a great time to get it. The problem is the trend is up and the risk reduction tools are Bullish. Picking tops is for short-term speculator only. The current data STILL isn't giving us much reason to fear this market. My call is for a decline on Monday and up on Tuesday, then down on Wednesday into Thursday, and up on Friday.
Last time, I said that there was not a lot for the Bears to get excited about and this morning, that's clear. Worse, with Momentum positive and now a ST Buy from the OEX, it's not likely to be much fun for the furry sorts. That said, Market Harmonics is a hair from a Sell and so is NAAIM, now. In fact, there was a pretty good drop in shorting and a good jump in average exposure among their surveyees. That might allow for some selling but again, there's nothing compelling us to do much if any selling, yet. We just know that we want to be alert in the coming days for a Sell signal. We don't want to "predict our predictors" (don't try to front-run your indicators!). The market is still prone to suprise on the upside.
Last time, I said that while I thought that we were in for more weakness, I didn't think it would be a cake-walk for the Bears. The Options Oscillator called for weakness and we got it, but now we've got a Buy. The thing is, there's little help from the options save from the OEX. Also, the CBOE:SPX and Momentum are all negative. That suggests that we'll get at least some chop in here if not a decline of some merit. I'm not all Beared-up about it, but I'm open to some selling and frankly, I think it would be healthy for the market.
Last week, I said that Momentum the CBOE:SPX had turned back up, implying higher prices, but the Senticator implied probable selling, which we got but it wasn't a cake-walk for the Bears. Early in the week, we turned the CBOE:SPX and Momentum back down and during we week we confirmed the Sells from the IT and LT Momentum. Things look lower, plain and simple...except that the trend indicators and breadth are still looking pretty good. And we're still in a Bull market. And earnings aren't so bad. Obviously, we think we're in for more weakness, but again, we don't think it will be a cake-walk. The Options Oscillator is Bearish and it's likely to bring us some more selling sooner rather than later. I'm thinking though that the market finds it's feet again by mid week or so and they try to mount a rally. My call is for a decline on Monday and Tuesday, then a low and rally on Wednesday, chop on Thursday, and up on Friday.
Last time, I said that we had expected the CBOE:SPX and the momentum to turn back up, but neither did. That, and an Options Oscillator Sell implied some selling, and we got it. In fact, we called for a rally decline sequence and that's the way it played out. Today, the Options Oscillator Sell is still in effect, but now we have a Buy on its heels. The OEX P/C is Bullish for the market, too. On the other hand, there are a lot of Bulls in the message board poll. That means that we'll see weakness too. Note that none of the other trend or breadth measures have turned down, only Momentum and the CBOE:SPX. I'm thinking first they take the market down, but that we bounce. I'd like the overbought condition to work off, but there after, this market is a Bull so we'd probably be well served to look long.
Last time, I said that momentum had turned back down and we had a Sell from the CBOE:SPX. I was thinking we'd get some weakness, but the problem for the bears was that we had a strong and repeat Options Oscillator Buy. I figured we'd get some weakness then a bounce, and we did, but we got more than I'd have thought. That's telling, by the way. In any case, last night, I'd have expected the CBOE:SPX and the momentum to turn back up. Neither did. That's interesting too. We also got an Options Oscillator Sell. That implies some selling today, but there are a lot of partially short Bears in the message board poll. That means that we'll see strength too. I'm thinking first they rally it, and then perhaps they will take the market down. This is a Bull so any dip is probably a better buy than a short.
The Euro problem would certainly be a good reason to deploy liquidity right now. The media isn't reporting all the negative issues that are occuring right now and that tells me there may be a move afoot to shore things up again without alarming the markets.
Not exactly. I'm thinking the Fed may be injecting liquidity in a low volume environment. QE3 is back in the discussion again and it would not surprise me if it's already being executed. QE2 was in motion weeks before the fed admitted such.
I think it's all about liquidity now.
Last time, I said that in our view, there was/is more to this market besides a normal expiration. To us, this market feels STRONG and it's acting like a Bull market. We had said that we do not want to be overly patient with shorting and certainly should not position short on the Intermediate-term. That's still fairly sound advice. Today we have a FL/FS Buy and an Options Oscillator Buy which are pretty Bullish occurrences. This is options expiration though, so they aren't the lay-ups that they would ordinarily be. We have to expect anything, but the only way I'd want to trade today is long. Bigger picture, things are looking pretty good, despite our overbought condition and nearness to some IT technical Sells.
Last time, I said that momentum had turned down both short- and intermediate-term and the CBOE:SPX was also negative. Now the CBOE:SPX is flat and ST momentum is marginally positive. We had said that we had as good an excuse for some selling as we get, if it weren't Options Expiration. Well, we can see what that can do to the market. I must say, there's more to this market besides a normal expiration. This market feels STRONG. It's a Bull market and it's acting like one. We do not want to be overly patient with shorting and certainly we ought not position short on the Intermediate-term. We can take little probing shorts but otherwise, we should probably be looking to buy dips.
Last week, I said that since the OEX P/C and VIX were Bearish, while the FL/FS was flashing a strong Buy as was the Options Oscillator, I had to conclude that while we were probably mapping out a complex top, dips should be bought. I also thought that it was likely to be a wild and tricky week of trading. Not too far off. This week is Op-Ex and that means that we'll likely hold together. The Options Oscillator is also positive, implying Tuesday will be OK (GLOBEX confirms). Bigger picture, we have some reason for concern. Nasdaq advisors got very bulled up last week. Also, AAII shows a consistently large number of Bulls after a big jump. This, in conjunction with the fact that Momentum has marginally turned down both short- and intermediate-term and the CBOE:SPX has also turned down marginally, makes us very cautious this week and next. If it weren't Options expiration, I'd be very Bearish, near term. As it is, speculators can short strength and less aggressive traders can pare exposure levels back a bit this week, especially in the Naz. My call is for a rally on Tuesday (taking my cue from GLOBEX), into Wednesday and then down into Thursday and up marginally on Friday.
Last time, I said that "Weird Wolly Wednesday" has been coming a bit late these days and today ought to get wild if only to let the options guys have some fun. Well, maybe it comes today. The P/C's support that and the Options Oscillator support that. We could really use a shake out and frankly, since AAII still shows a ton of Bullishness, I think they are going to shake the Amateurs loose. The thing to remember is first, we have options expiration coming next week and second, they don't usually like to take the market down much on Friday the 13th. I would expect weakness, but punctuated with rallies. A very choppy next few days would be my prediction.
Last time, I said that I was concerned that both IT and LT momentum as well as the very high OEX 10-day P/C--which is at levels similar to those that topped the market in November--were all looking dangerous for the market. That is still the case. That is tempered by the fact that a) nothing has turned down yet and the FL/FS and Options Oscillator are Bullish. I had said that I was going to be open to lower prices but that I was also going to be patient when it comes to shorting. So far, that has been a good strategy. Now, today, we ought to get some selling. Weird Wolly Wednesday has been coming a bit late these days and today ought to get wild if only to let the options guys have some fun. The other P/C's support that. AAII still shows a ton of Bullishness and frankly, they don't let the amateurs get that right very often. There's a very good chance that we'll see some downside to shake them loose. We're going to lighten up a tad and try some day trade shorts.
Last time, I said that while the OEX P/C was Bearish as was the VIX, the FL/FS and the Options Oscillator were both flashing Buys. I had to conclude that while we were/are probably mapping out a complex top, dips should be bought. This morning, that looks like the winning call. So far, my call for a decline on Monday, higher prices on Tuesday (if not out of a low on Monday) and into Wednesday and then weakness Thursday and Friday is still on track. I am a bit worried by the massive Bullish shift by Nasdaq advisors as well as the Options Oscillator Sell. There are a lot of things that are starting to stack up. Caution is indicated. We know that tops can take a long time to set up, and momentum is still positive but some time soon, we're likely to get some sort of pullback and it could be fast and furious.
Last week, I said that I figured that there would be a flurry of buying to make sure that the late-comers Bulls paid the highest possible price, prior to a more serious bit of selling. The dead even split in the WSS survey data implied a rally into some sort of top, too. That may or may not be what we got. This week is VERY tricky. The Senticator is flashing a Sell, and the WSS "Smart Money" Guys are Bearish, but the "Amateurs" are also Beared up. The AAII data showed a big Bullish shift which has to be a warning sign of some sort too. The OEX P/C is Bearish as is the VIX. On the other hand, the FL/FS is flashing a strong Buy and so is the Options Oscillator. I have to conclude that while we are probably mapping out a complex top, dips should be bought. It's likely to be a wild and tricky week of trading. My call is for a decline on Monday (taking my cue from GLOBEX), higher prices on Tuesday (if not out of a low on Monday) and into Wednesday and then weakness Thursday and Friday.
Last time, I said that the indicators implied that we had selling coming but that we might get a bounce, too. We got both. I was looking for Thursday to resolve down but it didn't. That has me questioning the down side today, but the indicators still support some selling. That big jump by AAII on the heels of backing into a Bull Market make me favor the downside here. It need not be too bad, either, though I am fairly confident that we'll be down enough to shake the confidence of the Bulls. The trend is up and persistent and breadth is decent. Picking a top is going to be tricky. IT traders should just hang long, I think.
Last time, I said that so far, we were on track for a rally into a top of some sort. Yesterday, we said that there was both support for a rally and trouble brewing and the market did find strength and closed fairly well, but fell overnight. The FL/FS 2X Sell is sitll in force and should have some effect. Compounding that is the fact that the Options Oscillator gave a strong Sell on the heels of a strong Buy. This implies that we have selling coming but, we may get a bounce today, too. That said, I'm really liking the down side today and Friday. The trend is up, but the powers that be most likely have an agenda that entails bagging the late-comer Bulls and shaking them loose.
Last week, I said that we figured that we'd get strength, somehow, into the end of the year, soon to be followed by more substantial weakness. We're still of that opinion. We were also thinking that we would transition to a Bull Market condition, which indeed we did. That will make us much more aggressive on our Buy signals, but the problem is that so much has turned up, we're likely only a couple days from some selling. I'm guessing that there is a flurry of buying to make sure that the late-comers pay the highest possible price, then we'll get a more serious bit of selling. This is supported by the dead even split in the WSS survey data. The rest of the data is less than ideal given the holiday, but none is particularly inconsistent with our read. Our call is for higher prices on Tuesday and Wednesday and then weakness Thursday and Friday.
Heads up. The Seven Sentinels went to an intermediate term buy condition yesterday.
Frenchee, I can't update the ibox with the buy signal from work. My browser isn't supported here any more. If you can post that buy signal for me I'd appreciate it. Otherwise it'll have to wait till I get home.
Last week, I said that while momentum was negative, the chart pattern looked just too tempting for the Bulls and I figured that they were going to break out of the pattern to the upside. Now, I did say I was not confident, and that we were still in a Bear Market, but I was betting on the market finding a way to rally into Christmas. Well, we saw precious little strength last week, but I still think that this time is not going to be an exception to the Christmas Rally rule. The sentiment isn't perfect, at all. Ordinarily, I'd be Bearish, but we do have an Options Oscillator Buy. Also the $-weighted P/C's are OK too. The WSS Surveyees are dead even and that usually gets us a turn of some sort. Now, if we get even a little strength, my best trend indicator will give a Buy and so will Momentum. All of that would support a rally into Friday. Additionally, we do have a "Best Fade" Buy signal from the MACD. I don't think Thursday's and Friday's wimpy bounces fulfilled that signal. My call for the week is for a hard rally on Monday and Tuesday and then chop mostly higher through Friday. Things are likely to get slower and slower as we approach weeks end. We will not be publishing next Sunday.
Last time, I said that we were looking up and that given impeding expiration, this was no surprise. I thought that they might hold it, but I suspected that neither the decline, nor the rally meant as much as we'd like. Options expiration does that. The seasonal factors are also weighing upon this market, as are the various government machinations related to the various currency and sovereign debt plays. The technicals are still pretty iffy/stinky, but we've got the tag end an Options Oscillator Buy (though there's a Sell too today). NAAIM reports no signal but the most aggressive Bulls got 175% long and that may be part of the problem for this market. Right now the market has a couple things working for it: the MACD "Best Fade" Buy and the set-up from our momentum oscillator. IF we can get a bit of a rally here, we can trigger a Buy from momentum which could morph into a nice end of year rally. Timing is tricky, but it's due within the next few days.
Last time, I said that while no real damage had been done, there was support for lower prices, not the least of which was an Options Oscillator Sell. We had thought that the strong Buy might give us a bounce first, but I figured that we were not going to break out this week. Well, nope. We were down yesterday. Early indications are that we're up and given that tomorrow is expiration, this is no surprise. Will they hold it? Probably, but I suspect that neither the decline, nor this rally mean as much as we'd like. The technicals are pretty iffy/stinky, but we've got some support from an Options Oscillator Buy. NAAIM reports this afternoon and we might get something from that. We know that there's some impetus for a rally in here, but given that we are still in a Bear market, we want to be careful. Watch the Ted-Spread...if it doesn't flatten out a bit, it could be a sign of a liquidity problem generally and for the market in particular.
Last time, I said that had a new Options Oscillator Buy and a well supported one at that. I was hoping that we would chop around and generate some confidence among the Bears. I guess we could say the market did that. Or we could say it was just down. No real damage has been done, as yet, but there is support for lower prices. We also have an Options Oscillator Sell. Of course, we are still on a strong Buy, too. I'm guessing that we're not going to break out this week. As such, I'm going to figure on some sort of rally today, and then a test tomorrow. Friday will probably go sideways. There were WAY too many folks talking about a Christmas Rally yesterday. That's not good for the market.
Last time, I said that we were likely to get some selling, but that it was just not likely to amount to much and that it migh well come today. Well, the Options Oscillator Sell delivered immediately and we were down hard. That weakness begat a new Options Oscillator Buy and a well supported one. I still think that they're going to break the market out of this pattern to the upside, but I could be more confident. Today would be best to chop around and generate some confidence among the Bears even as we worked a bit higher. Then, tomorrow, break up through resistance. No real damage was done yesterday to the breadth indicators and in the past that was a pretty good buy signal on the heels of a counter-trend decline.