Thrift Savings Plan

[frenchee]

Long-Term F Fund Investors: Take Note

Many of the forecasts I hear regarding bonds seem to be based upon what bonds have done for most of the last 40 years without acknowledging what has happened more recently. The chart below shows that 30-Year T-Bonds were in a rising trend from the 1982 low, but in early-2020 they made a long-term top, and began trending downward. That down trend lasted long enough for price to violate the rising trend line, which is strong evidence that the long-term trend has now shifted downward. Technically, we should expect that this down trend will continue for a long time, probably decades.


Bonds: Don't Forget the Long-Term Trend

[frenchee]

When I Jump Back Into the Equity Side, I'm Going to be with C Fund

Large Cap Stocks Are A Better Bet for the Rest of 2023

[frenchee]

Welcome back! Don't be a stranger.

[Snippy]

Thanks Baja. Happy to see your assessment. I've been in for about two weeks as well. Normally August and September are down months so I'm hoping the end of weakness will put us in a better position for the remaining portion of 2023. I'm setting at a positive 14.8% for the year so no overall complaints. And I agree that more posters would be ideal. I don't consider myself as fully schooled on the investment process but have learned a great deal following this site and have a few years of solid results as a direct result.

[baja6string]

Looks like the market weakness is mostly over. I am fully invested at this point, and have been for about a week. We need some more posters here.

[frenchee]

The U.S. Dollar Index fell through important chart support sending a message that further losses may be looming

Next potential support at 98.78. TSP investing implications annotated on linked chart.

US $ Chart, Weekly

[frenchee]

Market timers are more bullish now than at the top of internet bubble
Why this is not a good time to put more money into stocks

[frenchee]

Target Date Funds: Are They the Air Fryer of the Investment World?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rh4znVw7uZ0&ab_channel=ExpeditionRetirementShowbyGoldenReserve" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" >https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rh4znVw7uZ0&ab_channel=ExpeditionRetirementShowbyGoldenReserve[tag]Are you curious about target date funds and why they're so prevalent in 401(k)s? What exactly is a target date fund? Why do they feel like a safe option as you approach retirement? And most importantly, are they truly worth it, or just like the Air Fryer pretending to be more than a convection oven?

This video explores how target date funds work and why they make you feel comfortable as retirement looms. ?? As you get closer to retirement, taking less risk seems appealing, and these funds provide a specific "target date" for the transition. But here's the catch – there's a FEE involved for something you could potentially manage yourself, much like that convection oven in your kitchen that replicates the Air Fryer's capabilities.

Shockingly, many people don't even hold onto target date funds until retirement! So, what's the deal? Are these funds as reliable as they seem, or is there a reason why they're not a long-term investment solution?

Buyer, beware, as we reveal the truth about target date funds, ensuring you make informed financial decisions. While they might appear fancy and sophisticated, you may end up with a convection oven when you thought you had something fancy. ??
[/tag]

[baja6string]

I think the short-term high was last week so I'd give you credit for what may turn out to be an excellent correction call. We'll see...

[frenchee]

Opps
I didn't get the correction this week as expected, but the pump remains primed for one, as there are negative divergences on the price charts with its indicators. Because of this, I will stick my neck out and invest 40% into the F Fund today, as when the correction starts, I suspect the gains from equities will rotate into bonds.

F Fund Chart, Weekly

Here's a big reason you can expect bonds to start outperforming stocks

[frenchee]

Extreem Greed on 13 June

Extreem greed is driving the market at the moment.

Fear & Greed Index

[frenchee]

Looking for Correction Week of 12 Jun

"The average recommended equity exposure level among short-term stock market timers (as measured by my Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI) is now higher than 97.6% of all other daily readings since 2000. That’s well inside the zone of extreme bullishness that previously signaled tough times ahead." ~ Mark Hulbert

NAAIM Exposure Index

[frenchee]

Thanks for your comments, B6S.

The S Fund was the relative strength winner this week. Check out the chart at the link below, which shows the one-week performance of C, S, F, and I funds on one chart. Make sure to right-click on the data slide at the bottom of the chart and select the past week.



One Week Relative Strength Chart

[baja6string]

Thanks for keeping up the good work Frenchee. I am still holding 50%C - 50%S. I've been there since the October lows. The Wilshire 2000 is underperforming the Nasdaq Composite by 16.5% since the October low. That appears to be changing and the Russell has picked up this week. That should mean the S fund will do better too.

I summarize many indicators on Friday. My indicators were VERY bullish last Friday. I suspect they will be very bullish tomorrow, 9 June.

[frenchee]

According to Ned Davis Research, money market funds over the past 13 weeks saw the fastest pace of asset inflows since July 2020
That money will be invested.
ICI: MMF Assets Hit Record $?5.?4 Trillion (?Crane $?5.?83T); Fed'?s Jefferson

[frenchee]

Bonds Outperforming Commodities?
There could be life for F Fund.
$CRB vs. AGG Weekly Chart

[frenchee]

Short sellers are more bearish than they’ve been in a long time
If we take seriously the message of the short sellers, we must therefore conclude that the market is in a very high-risk zone right now. “The lesson of history suggests there are several possibilities,” Professor Ringgenberg said in an interview. We could be facing “a short-term blip a la the 2013 possible default or a structural economic downturn a la 2008.”

Either way, now doesn’t seem like the time to throw caution to the wind.

Short sellers are more bearish than they’ve been in a long time

[frenchee]

The real reason to expect L Fund to rally

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-real-reason-to-expect-bonds-to-rally-e918f767?mod=panda_marketwatch_author_alert

L Fund, Weekly Chart

[frenchee]

Selling I Fund on Cinco de Mayo

Momentum indicators are rolling over on EFA (I Fund). It's time to take profits and look for a reload spot.

May the 4th be with you!

I Fund, Weekly Chart

[frenchee]

"Bear Shift" Changes Character of the Market

https://decisionpoint.com/articles/decisionpoint/2023/04/bear-shift-changes-character-o-774.html

[frenchee]

Selling C Fund Today

The C Fund appears to be rolling over and it's time to lock in gains. At day's end, will be 60% G Fund and 30% I Fund.

C Fund, Daily Chart

[frenchee]

60% I Fund?

You’re probably missing out on recent gains from non-U.S. stocks. Here’s why that needs to change

[frenchee]

Long-Term C Fund

C Fund had a long-term buy signal at March's end using the Fast MACD settings of 5,35,5. See the referenced monthly chart. It's the green dashed vertical lines.

C Fund, Monthly

[frenchee]

Expect more money flow to I Fund

International stocks outperform, decouple from U.S. equities by ‘unusual degree’

[frenchee]

Well done, baja6string!

I'm currently 2% L 2065, 42% G Fund, 28% C Fund, and 28% I Fund.

What's keeping me off of S Fund is its relative strength among the stock choices we have is the least and the direction of the US Dollar and its impact on S Fund. See the referenced chart.

I'm hoping to pick a spot to become fully invested at the next short-term correction.

$US Dollar Weekly Chart

[baja6string]

I remain fully invested, 50%-S, 50%-C. For me, it all depends on the 200-dMA. Many of my indicators flipped bearish last week (about 2 to 1 bears), but to some extent, they are following the price trend. If the S&P 500 can pull back above its 200-day on Monday or Tuesday, I'll stay fully invested. If not, I'll be selling. The FED guaranteed deposits at US banks; UBS bought credit Suisse and that should end contagion worries. I suspect markets will move back to buy-the-dip mode this week, but we'll see.

[frenchee]

Taking a Starter Position in I Fund Today

I like the I Fund's relative strength compared to the C and S Funds. Took a 30% position in the I Fund.

I Fund, Daily Chart

[baja6string]

Never wrong to take profits.

[Snippy]

Thanks Baja. I see the same but after this past year and already claiming 8.3% for January at 100% in, I chose to protect my gains for Jan. Hopeful for a new run and if so, I’ll be ready to jump back in early Feb. Good luck!

[baja6string]

Indicators are very bullish and have been for more than a week. I'm fully invested 75% stocks overall (100% TSP), which is higher than normal for me. I generally follow the rules for a conservative retiree - 50% invested in stocks. Because there are so many pundits expecting recession and stock disaster, I went 50-50 S&C funds. If I had more guts I'd be 100% S-fund. I think we've seen the bottom, but a retest is always possible.

[frenchee]

You are welcome, Snippy! Glad to be of help.

[Snippy]

As always Frenchee, thanks for your perspective and feedback. Nice to see similar views that reinforce what's being seen or questioned. Appreciate it.

[frenchee]

Happy New Year, Friends!

With the US Dollar starting to base, I'm looking for S Fund to outperform relative to C and I Funds. Check out my comments on the linked charts.

US Dollar, Weekly

[frenchee]

Next Leg Up: C Fund or S Fund to Outperform?

C Fund and S Fund have been in a basing mode since May 22 until now. My hunch is S Fund will break out soon and be the place to park the $$$. See my note on the linked chart.

Weekly Relative Performance between C Fund & S Fund

[frenchee]

Intermediate-Term Sell Signal

With today's Friday close, I got an intermediate-term sell signal on the weekly C-Fund charts. See the red vertical line on the right-hand side of the chart. The Fast MACD histogram is now in the sell configuration.

C Fund, Weekly Chart

[frenchee]

Tracking the Dollar

Nine-Year Look

[frenchee]

Regression to Trend: 115% Above Trend in November

Quick take: At the end of November, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 115% above its long-term trend, up from 106% above the previous month.

C Fund, Regression to Trend

[frenchee]

Huge Test of Short-Term Trend on Tap

The heavy red trend line and the green pitchfork regression line are aligned for resistance. Mr. Market's intermediate-term trend is about to be tested.

C Fund, Daily Chart

[baja6string]

Happy Thanksgiving to all! (Time to go make some pies.)

[baja6string]

Interesting...I track a modified OBV using a 10-dMA. That was designed to give quick response to OBV to better indicate tops and bottoms. I must admit I have never gone back and compared my version to signals that a regular OBV would produce. My version of OBV made a very strong move higher on 27 September. It pulled back from 31 Oct to 9 Nov. It has moved sharply higher since then and still looks bullish. Up-moves have been larger than down-moves over the last month (my Price indicator) and VIX is falling fast enough to give me a buy signal in VIX. Bottom line, right now my long-term ensemble (Price, Volume, VIX and Sentiment) is bullish, although Sentiment is currently neutral.

[frenchee]

Elephant in the Room--On Balance Volume(OBV)

Bullish and bearish divergence signals can be used to anticipate a trend reversal. These signals are genuinely based on the theory that volume precedes prices. A bullish divergence forms when OBV moves higher or forms a higher low even as prices move lower or forge a lower low. A bearish divergence forms when OBV moves lower or forms a lower low even as prices move higher or forge a higher high. The divergence between OBV and price should alert chartists that a price reversal could be in the making. A bearish divergence is happening now.

C Fund, Daily Chart

[frenchee]

Here’s strong new evidence that a U.S. stock-market rally is coming soon

[frenchee]

Getting Ready to Take Some Profits

The Fast MACD indicator and its histogram are in a presignal area for a sell.

C Fund Daily Chart

[baja6string]

I agree. I track sentiment using Rydex 2x long and short funds calculated as: {5-dma of Bulls/(Bulls+ Bears)}. Rydex traders have been bearish enough to give me a "Sentiment Buy-signal" almost every day since 3 October. I don't act on one signal, but sentiment is an important part of my long-term indicator ensemble. My "correction over" signal was 27 September based on improving internals now compared to the June lows. That signal is hard to believe, but, so far, buying the dip looks like it was the right call.

[baja6string]

Last week indicators were slightly bullish. Friday (21 Oct) they turned full on bullish with 18-Bull and 10-Bear. I'm fully invested. This time, will the S&P 500 break thru its 200-dMA? I think yes, but time will tell. It's better to follow indicators rather than thinking too much.

[frenchee]

Bearish investor sentiment is the key to sustaining a stock market rally into 2023

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bearish-investor-sentiment-to-sustain-2023-rally-2022-10

[frenchee]

Have Enough Folk Thrown in the Towel Yet?

I think so. Thoughts?

NAAIM Exposure Index

[baja6string]

When bad news is met by a strong move higher in markets, we interpret it as a very bullish sign. We also note that today was a bullish Outside Reversal Day.
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session.”
That chart pattern is also known as a bullish engulfing pattern to the chartists. We’ve seen bearish reversals in August and September; this is the first bullish reversal signal since 1 July. That signal presaged a 13% rally in the S&P 500. Based on my bottom analysis, it appears that this time it may be signaling a more significant move higher – my “time to buy” signal was triggered on 27 September with the warning that the S&P 500 might fall below the 27 Sept close, but probably not more than 5% below it. The Index did close about 2% below the 27 September low. Today’s move suggests we may not dip below the lows again....
...Volumes have been declining since the 30 Sept low suggesting a slowdown in selling and tending to confirm that the bottom might have been in the vicinity of 3600 on the S&P 500. This has continued to support the position that the best move is to “buy-the-dip.” Today volume bounced back to about 5% above the monthly average. Further 80% of the volume was up-volume. Another strong 80%+ up-volume day Friday would be a bullish sign, lending more evidence that 12 October was the final bottom.

[baja6string]

I had a buy signal on Tuesday, 27 September. I didn't quite believe it after Thursday and Friday weakness, but this week there have been bullish reversal signals. We may have seen the bottom, although I wouldn't be upset unless markets drop more than 3% below the prior lows. It doesn't seem possible, but Pros say buy when there's blood in the streets.

[frenchee]

Fresh S Fund Daily Chart

I hope we can make it up to price's top Bollinger Band before resistance shows up.

S Fund, Daily