Thrift Savings Plan

[coolhand]

Last week, I said that since the OEX P/C and VIX were Bearish, while the FL/FS was flashing a strong Buy as was the Options Oscillator, I had to conclude that while we were probably mapping out a complex top, dips should be bought. I also thought that it was likely to be a wild and tricky week of trading. Not too far off. This week is Op-Ex and that means that we'll likely hold together. The Options Oscillator is also positive, implying Tuesday will be OK (GLOBEX confirms). Bigger picture, we have some reason for concern. Nasdaq advisors got very bulled up last week. Also, AAII shows a consistently large number of Bulls after a big jump. This, in conjunction with the fact that Momentum has marginally turned down both short- and intermediate-term and the CBOE:SPX has also turned down marginally, makes us very cautious this week and next. If it weren't Options expiration, I'd be very Bearish, near term. As it is, speculators can short strength and less aggressive traders can pare exposure levels back a bit this week, especially in the Naz. My call is for a rally on Tuesday (taking my cue from GLOBEX), into Wednesday and then down into Thursday and up marginally on Friday.