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MAT looks poised to breakout. I am looking for a close above the cloud to confirm.
MAT
Although I wouldn't expect a major decline with the election bias still in play, what about that gap between 1900 and 1910? Guess that gets fill sometime next year? The S&P doesn't usually leave gaps unfilled for all that long.
Love the RANT!!! I don't disagree with you at all and appreciate the time you took to tell me how you really feel. ;o) Yeah, it's a rigged game and I doubt it will change until it collapses. I read an article not too long ago about how central banks have been buying tens of trillions in the equities market. That's the liquidity I was referring to. Of course, it enters the market in manipulated fashion and it enters it at many points of entry (stocks, gold, etc.). Here's one of the links in you are interested.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-15/cluster-central-banks-have-secretly-invested-29-trillion-market
Do you post big board stuff anywhere? Another site perhaps?
In my post I said investor sentiment was too bullish. I meant bearish.
Hello lowtrade. I have followed your charting (on and off) for a few years now. And I've learned a lot (thank-you!). I don't trade penny stocks any more, so much of what you post is of limited use to me these days. But I always pay attention when you post big board stuff. You mention HFT, but who is behind the HFT? I agree that it is a manipulated market. Has been for a long time. After all, the Fed had a lot of work to do to recover this market from the 2008 debacle. My take is that while HFT is certainly present, the central banks are largely behind the unusual trading patterns we see. In the form of liquidity, which is not limited to POMO in my opinion. I think POMO is just the "transparent" portion of their activities, but I have no doubt that there is significant liquidity action coming from the Fed (and other CBs to perhaps a more limited extent) that push this market around. And it isn't just limited to expansion. I track liquidity and it was well into contraction at the recent bottom of the market. It hasn't been often the Fed has sucked up liquidity like that the past few years, but I suspect they were trying to set-up an election rally and had to back off the bulls first because sentiment was just too bullish (that was the investor psychology). Anyway, do you think HFT is related to the liquidity action? Or is it separate. I'm just curious what you think about that.
Thanks frenchee! Between my regular day job and the amount of time I spend on TSP Talk I don't post here much these days as you know. I do check out the thread from time to time though.
Hope everyone is trading successfully and that the New Year is profitable to all!
My Aunt and Uncle lived about a mile from the Farmington in Collinsville. Been awhile since I've been up that way. Thanks for the pics. I used to trout fish in that river years ago.
As of yesterday, liquidity was back at very elevated levels. They just aren't taking their foot off the gas. And when they have the past few months, it's only to slow down from 100 mph to 60 or 70 mph. Just enough to allow their henchmen a chance to reload.
But I hear you. This market is long past due. I do think the best we can hope for is yet another trip down to the lower trend line on the major averages.
I agree...respect liquidity. It's massive and remains robust. The downside is suspect until the Fed put is removed.
It probably won't get those drops as long as the market continues to see this kind of intervention. But just as "they" can sustain a rally beyond what seems reasonable, they can also orchestrate an even more impressive decline. It's all a question of "when". Many of us know how much more quickly prices can fall than rise, and that's where my level of comfort gets challenged.
It's been pretty crazy, but Ben has had our backs so far. My intermediate term system went on a sell last Thursday so I'm expecting lower prices over the weeks ahead, but top building can be a frustrating process. Especially for those of us who see the writing on the wall (or at least think we do). The problem now is that folks get bearish quickly on declines, like Monday, so it could be tough to get some sustained selling pressure. I'd like to see at least a 5% move lower, but 10% would be better. The market needs it.
I just read a comment from a Firefighter on TSPTalk who also didn't realize they were affected until just now. It seems our Politicos keep plumbing new depths of deceit and deception on the American public. At least those of us in the DoD saw this coming, but to blindside the rest of you is pretty low.
From what I now understand, the sequestration appears to apply to all Federal agencies. I did not know that until the media started talking about longer lines at the airport and fewer police and firemen, etc. I had no idea it was that crazy. There's no leadership in Washington. None. It's all ideology, power, and politics.
I understand what you're saying, however the future remains uncertain even beyond the intial furloughs, should they indeed happen. Folks need to recognize and prepare for potential future events. We could face furloughs again next year, for instance. There are also contingecy plans for RIFs that no one is talking about. My particular agency is also facing BRAC in the not-to-distant future. Our country's debt situation is creating a very fluid economic and political environment and it will more than likely remain that way for the foreseeable future. None of us knows how all of this will play out, and I'm certainly hoping for the best, but at the same time I'm starting to prepare myself against continued negative future events. I've got the feeling it's going to get worse before it gets better.
It also affects retirement calculations (high-3) for those in the window. Not to mention social security. I'm sure there are other "unintended" consequences as well.
The signals about this economy sure seemed mixed to me. After very limited construction projects in the area where I live (Orlando) over the last 6 years, there's at least 8 large commercial construction projects in about a 3 mile radius of where I work. I mean they're leveling large, outdated malls targeted for new construction and clearing numerous lots in other areas for new projects. And like I said, it's commercial land. I would think that's a sign that business sees a recovering economy, but I can't connect all the dots.
Just a note to folks who watch this board, I cannot reply to PMs as I do not have an account anymore with IHUB. This is not a site that I frequent much these days so I do not pay for any services here. I can be reached via PM on TSPTalk, however. FYI
That's a great movie and that's EXACTLY how I'll feel when I leave. :o)
On another note and just as general information to the board, liquidity remains extremely elevated. Chances are this market has much further to go to the upsidde over the next few months in such an environment. Perhaps S&P 1550 by 2nd quarter. That's my current view, which is always subject to review as the market plays out.
Twenty-five years active duty and going on eleven years FERS. Next year will make twelve. I'm ready to start another career somewhere else in 2014.
If I retire in 2014, I'll have 37+ years. Is that enough? ;o)
While it may not be my prime motivator, that's one of the reasons I'm seriously considering early retirement next January.
In case some of you are not aware, liquidity is flooding the market. And I mean a lot of it. Marty Chenard has a chart depicting the amount and it's at very high levels. This is the same thing that happened at this time last year when the market just kept biasing higher. The difference now is that we have some serious debt and tax implications staring us in the face. Does the Sh*t hit the fan at some point? That's a very difficult question because we've seen how adept our pols are at kicking that can. But as long as that liquidity keeps coming in, downside action may be difficult to get going in any meaningful way.
Seven Sentinels Sell signal triggered yesterday. This is the original system and not the one used on the Seven Sentinels web site. I use it as a heads up indicator and right now I see this as a warning to longs.
System moved back to a buy on Friday. Some of the pros are getting bullish longer term right now too. The positive MACD cross is probably a short term fade, but after that price may very well rise into the holidays and perhaps a bit beyond.
Going 100% S. This may be a short term trade, but I'll cross that bridge when I get to it.
It's a counter trend trade. I haven't decided if I'm going to move my TSP account into stocks, but I did buy TNA in the pre-market with both hands this morning.
Seven Sentinels flipped to a sell condition on the 11th of October.
This is very interesting and thanks for making us aware. I'll be doing some research on this.
Lowtrade is one of the most knowledgeable, savvy traders on IHUB. I try to keep track of him, but missed this post. Thanks. I wish he'd focus more on the big boards rather than penny-land.
I agree with Hulbert. And in addition to sentiment, it's an election year, which makes it even more unlikely we'll see a serious correction at least through the elections (not to mention the holiday season that closely follows).
Yeah, I meant April. As if I'm not getting older fast enough already. lol
Seven Sentinels triggered a buy signal on 25 May. I was on travel and unable to access the board so my post is a bit late. Last sell signal was largely a bust as liquidity continues to trump distribution. That has yet to change.
I'm just taking a long needed break.
Intermediate term decline appears to be in progress. Seven Sentinels remain in a sell condition.
Last week, I said that we had the type of set up that can drive a rally for quite a while, and in addition to the Beared up sentiment, the end of the quarter alone would bring buying from advisors who were under-exposed and not wanting to explain this in their quarterly reports to customers. I was looking higher with only modest pullbacks to keep the bears hopeful. That was about as good a call as one could hope for. Trend and breadth wise, things are only better for the Bulls. The seasonality is also still very supportive, as it was. That said, we've got a few factors that make it very likely that we get a quick pullback. Here they are: We have a "Best Fade" sell from the MACD. That's a near 90% indicator and it ought to get right by Tuesday or so. We also have ST Sells from the FL/FS, the Options Oscillator, and most importantly, NAAIM. This is a lot to fight and it the data shows some capitulation. If there's any excuse to sell this down on Monday or Tuesday, they'll likely do it. That said, I'd not be too patient. There are still plenty of Bears and more are willing to come out of the wood work. A note on the Wall St. Sentiment Surveyees. Over the many years that I've been running this survey, I've found that when this crew gets really leaning, the market tends to accommodate them, even if it reverses soon there after (and it's likely to) My call is for a decline on Monday, into a low Tuesday, then up again Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
Wonder if they'll ever get retail (sentiment) to buy into it?
Last time, I said that sometime in the next few days, we were going to get a tradable pullback (almost assuredly) thanks to the MACD "Best Fade" Sell. I've urged caution at getting too Bearish in here, but short-term traders can get very bearish right now. The "Best Fade" is like 80-90% reliable. Add to that, a FL/FS 2X Sell, that should get right by Tuesday, an Options Oscillator Strong Sell which also should get right by Tuesday. NAAIM flashed an IT Sell AND a ST Sell. The NAAIM ST signals have been gold. Sure, the Bears are quick to get on board but suddenly a lot of Bulls have gotten on Board. Time to shake them loose. Look for fast and furious selling. Yes, you can chase it. Just cover next week.
Last time, I said that pullbacks were just not to be bet upon, yet. I feared that we had a real capitulation rally coming still and the end of quarter alone would bring buying from under-exposed advisors. You can see how that's playing out. I'm still actually looking to take day trade longs, in fact. That said, sometime in the next few days, we're going to get a tradable pullback (almost assuredly) thanks to the MACD "Best Fade" Sell. These are very reliable but we just want to give the market room. The odds of a big rally first are just as high as a pullback and the dull trade only amps up the odds of a shot higher.
Last time, I said that the technicals were a bit overbought, but while we could correct, it was just unlikely to get any traction. I'll say. I was looking for a top late and then down a bit on today, and then higher on Thursday and Friday. I'm thinking that pullbacks in here are just not to be bet upon, yet. I fear that we have a real capitulation rally coming still--yesterday was not believed by enough people. You don't want to be short for that and the end of quarter alone will bring buying from under exposed advisors, as we've been discussing. Now, all that said, sometime in the next week, we're going to get a tradable pullback (almost assuredly). The MACD has issued a "Best Fade" Sell. That's very reliable. I'm just not going to step in front of this freight train just yet.
Last time, I said that we had the type of set-up that can drive a rally for quite a while. In fact, the end of the quarter alone will bring buying from advisors who are under-exposed and not wanting to explain this in their quarterly reports. The technicals are a bit overbought, and Momentum is up in Sell territory. Of course it's also still heading up. The options are pretty neutral in here and the message board sentiment is too. We can correct on data like this, but I think it's just unlikely to get any traction. I'm looking for a top late Today, then down a bit on Wednesday, and then higher on Thursday and Friday. That sounds reasonable.
Last time, I said that the pros got too Beared-up too fast, as evidenced by Hulbert's advisors and NAAIM. The active traders in the message board polls in addition to generating a FL/FS Buy, also triggered a 50-day Buy. I was looking for a bounce and we got it and the new data only supports more. Sorry, Bears! They are NOT going to make it easy. My read here is that we are higher over the next several days. Then we have the end of quarter to deal with. It's just going to be very hard to get anything going on the down side. We've seen this before over the years. They're very likely to push it higher, pullbacks notwithstanding through tax time. All of this is "designed" to train us (and all traders) to not trust our Sell signals. About the time that we learn the lesson, we'll then experience a Sell off that kills the Buy signals. Just keep that in mind. As they say, "Think like a con-man," and we should be OK.