Thrift Savings Plan

[coolhand]

Last week, I said that it was important that momentum turned down and confirmed and as did the SPX:CBOE. That was very Bearish. The problem was that EVERYBODY turned Bearish and fast; the WSS surveyees, the message board pollees, and the options guys all got Beared-up. I allowed that we could fall more, but I just couldn't an easy trip for the Bears. It sure wasn't!. So, now, what's the deal? Well, a lot turned marginally higher. The SPX:CBOE turned up and Short, IT, and LT momentum turned marginally higher. Our "Best Trend Indicator" had curled over and was threatening a Sell, but Friday, it turned back up. That makes it harder still on the Bears. It's also very telling--this market has more lives than a cat. On the other hand, the Options Oscillator flashed a strong Sell. That suggests some selling, as does the Senticator. I'm just not willing to bet too much on an immediate decline. My call is for a rally that fades on Tuesday, falling into a low on Thursday morning and then higher for the end of the week.