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It must be all my massive buy orders at .98 and sell orders at .99
If you have a hole in your heart between the upper chambers then clots can break off from the legs and get into the arteries by traveling through the hole. My friend had 3 little strokes before they found the hole and did open heart surgery to close it. Then he quit having strokes. I guess alot of people have holes in their hearts. He was 33 at the time. I hope I don't have a hole in my heart. The hole is supposed to close after birth but it doesn't always close all the way.
I guess there's alot of baby boomers who don't want dentures or loose or infected ortho implants for that matter. I think the ortho business could eventually dwarf stents and perhaps even turn out bigger than the opthalmology business in the long run. The thing I like about SRDX is the multiple home run potential. Doubles and triples work for me too.
Bruce mentioned that the acquisition of Brookwood has enabled the Brookwood folks exposure to the device industry that has a place for their technology and what they bring to the table. It enables SRDX access to the broad horizons of the pharma industry and 'follow on excretalogics' for drugs that are facing patent expiration and need site specific drug delivery. Its a very nice synergistic marriage here. Both parties have a lot more to gain as a combined entitity with better goegraphical distribution. They need to set up a shop in New Jersey where the big Pharma lives too.
AT Research
It's becoming apparent that a lot of researchers are interested in AT in a wide variety of disease states. Perhaps in part due to availability? I wonder if GTCB is selling or giving product to researchers. Or is all animal research using animal versions of AT? The plasma derived human version is scarce and expensive. The safety aspect of AT is very compelling, IMO. AT does not cause bleeding (when not potentiated by heparin); rather it prevents the clotting cascade from getting out of control and has the anti-inflammatory properties. I wonder how many disease states involve acquired AT deficiency. Does having higher than normal levels of AT on board confer any advantage or is it satisfactory to just maintain normal levels? For instance in the animal MI and stroke models - what happened to the AT levels before and after the insult? We know what happens in sepsis(with DIC) and burns and it seems to me giving AT is a no brainer there.
In for a penny, in for a pound. I've got my order in for $37.75.
Thanks
It seems to me that AT would be a lot less risky in terms of major bleeds when compared to thrombolytics given(or not) in AMI and stroke. As I understand it many potential candidates are not given thrombolytics due to perceived bleeding risks (recent surgery, advaned age, GI problems, etc). I agree, this could be a huge indication if it pans out. A much greater population than sepsis with DIC.
Market For Drug-Eluting Stents Grows Crowded
http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/071102/health.html?.v=1
If the DES market increases as a result and BSX share goes down I see this as a positvie revenue development for SRDX. Lubricity is the common denominator.
I've got cash on the sidelines and this hit my radar screen. Any comments about getting in under $40? I think its time to start a position. I'm mostly a biotech investor licking wounds.
It looks like SRDX is getting some of the positive recognition it deserves. I still say the Novocell deal could be the biggest deal SRDX has ever struck in terms of potential. To me the only thing that could stop it from succeeding in a big way is if insulin producing cells can't be produced economically and in sufficient numbers. The Novocell guys sure seem confident. If it works in primates it will very likely work in humans so its the supply issue that matters to me more than the question of whether or not it works.
A nice fat orthopedic partner announcement would give a nice boost and I think we should see some revenue from Corning and genomic slides picking up. The worrisome stent stuff is not nearly the issue the shorts think it is. Besides, having a stake in the lubricity of just about every major stent issued really insulates SRDX from the whims of cardiologists.
The seeking alpha article was awesome - this guy gets it and he bought shares! He dug under the 'surface'. I always had faith that holding a big position thru the doldrums would someday pay off and like many here I continued to accumulate. Now I worry that a run up into earnings may be met with a selloff on the news but I have been around long enough to know that you just keep holding and buying this company.
This leg up has been a long time in coming but now I have more shares to enjoy it with. I gotta give some credit to Bruce. He took over the tiller and has steered well. I really like the fact that SRDX has not been hyping like a BSX but rather waiting in the weeds to pounce. I'm out of metaphors so I will shut up.
I've been accumulating some gold this past year. That's been pretty safe. Holding GTCB. I like your theory number 1 better.
Somewhat OT: This proves that lawyers can be dumb and dumber, especially in groups.
What do you call 1000 lawyers chained to the bottom of a deep lake? (This is a clasic)
What do you call a lawyer who is tragically killed, caught in a threshing machine? (Farmers like this one)
How many lawyers does it take to change a light bulb? (Polish people like the deflection this one affords)
How much does a lawyer bill for thinking about your case, while sitting on a commode, taking a shit, in the thinker position, of course? (I'll take responsibility for this one)
There are other lawyer jokes more worthy, please submit...
No, I said manipulation was quite real. I believe I painted an accurate picture. But I'm paranoid, too.
>LOL—why don’t you tell us who “they” are? I can’t stand the suspense.<
Don't you remember?
"They" are the fat cats in the smoke filled room spending most of their wakeful hours conniving ways to bring the share price of GTCB down while rubbing their hands together and uttering their evil laughter, "Muh, hoo, hah, hah, haahh!"
Those guys. They're not very happy today, but what evil plans lurk in their minds to make their next move? Stay tuned....
You will know "they" are back at work when the share price goes down, that will be the sign I am looking for. And, believe it or not, GTCB is not the only company in their sights.
Its a very secretive cluster, known only as, "They".
Drug eluting stents must be used in more complex lesions and in the smaller, culprit lesions, whereas bare metal stents should be used in less complex lesions, in arteries with larger diameters and in those patients who may not tolerate 12 months or more of plavix due to a higher risk of bleeding or due to imminent need for other surgery. That being said, as an investor, one must also keep in mind the fact that as BMS rates go up, so do restenosis rates. Big heart centers no longer have radiation backup (the archaic method of dealing with restenosis) so the BMS restenosis people will get DES as they do now. OK, other than patients belonging to dumb physicians (of which there are few, relatively speaking), just about everyone with CAD is on lipid therapy or multiple lipid therapy and the high risk folks mostly are too. Medications have been maxed out lately for most of these new or repeating stent candidates. The lull is likely over, my friends.
My take is this: DES will never drop to less than 60% US and next generation DES will take the market by storm once they obtain FDA approval, which may take a while. I'd say SRDX is uniquely positioned to profit from current DES usage while taking part in the next generation stents via drug(s) elution and/or the lubricity thereof, at least, to warrant the company consideration as a key player in the DES market.
If, therefore, one believes that DES aren't going away like the dinosaurs then where else might one find a better play in the DES market, given the size of the companies involved, than little old SRDX? Oh, and by the way, DES, a major revenue source, are in reality a smaller and smaller aspect of the reasons for investing in SRDX as time goes by, as has been well stated in numerous, eloquent posts on this board.
shears
Prior to the last round it was "just under 5%"
My guess is that currently it is ~ 2.5% give or take. Likely not much less. I look at it like Intel owning 2.5% of Dell in the early days.
Me put round fiber in round glass hole,
oops, me miss that one, try again
duhh....96
me sell....
Me a genious!
"Corning developed Ultra-Web with two collaborators, Donaldson (www.donaldson.com) and SurModics (www.surmodics.com). The former company created the underlying nanofiber structure, and chemistry experts at SurModics treated the synthetic nanofiber with special polymers to facilitate cell growth. Corning then integrated the pieces and applied it to 96-well microplates and 100-mm tissue culture dishes to mimic in vivo cell growth conditions."
I gotta hand it to Corning for marketing something they got shoved into their faces and dropped into their laps so they could take credit for it so craftilly. Sounds like they directed the whole operation. Just brow beating those guys at the other companies until they finally got it right. Brilliant.
Wasn't it some cell biologist from univ of AZ that was googling for fibers on the internet and found a company that sells truck air filters and then brought it to the attention of SRDX? or was I on drugs? Must be me. History re-invents itself once again.
Will it cause me to sell any GTCB shares, phase 2b or not 2b?
That is the question.
I guess I would be a bit more sensitive to this kind of challenge if I owned as many shares as you, Noble Dew.
I decided to bite my tongue till I saw the paper. Why would anyone tout these kind of results? They're not worth the paper being printed on. Boy I wish my name was listed at the end. I'd be famous. Manipulating Protein C doesn't really effect outcomes in sepsis, does it? The mortality p values were likely .8 or thereabouts. This reminds me of the crap Boston Sci was putting out in the stent wars, only their data was way better. This paper buries itself by trying to bury the mortality data. What a piece of crap. I really don't know doodly when it comes to statistics but I can smell a rat when I see one.
Can anyone name one insurance company that would throw good money down the drain to pay for someone to get ART-123 before they die?
"Here lies Darryl
His DIC numbers are tops in the cemetary
and he didn't bleed from heparin
RIP"
Blah, blah, blah blah blah....
Bottom line is NO IMPROVEMENT IN MORTALITY!!! This meaningless little outcome is finally reported on page 6!!! (table 4).
That's the whole purpose of improving outcomes in DIC and sepsis or whatever else causes DIC, is it not? So what if you can make some DIC numbers look better or show lower bleeding than heparin, the goal is to save lives. This stuff sucks. The FDA would be stupid to approve an agent like this. It won't happen.
Tisk, Tisk. "Oh, what a tangled web we weave...."
I'm stilling kicking myself in the A$$ for not shorting BSX when my gut and my brain lined up but my cojones didn't.
Perhaps an n of 200 would be powered to show a statistically significant difference in survival benefit if RRR is over 35%? Leo could hit their secondary outcome measure if that is the case. Wasn't there a Meta-analysis that showed statistically significant survival benefit even with the heparin arms included?
I would guess the short sellers are trying to drive the price down to cover while more aggressive buyers are accumulating and keeping the price from dropping too far. Purely speculation on my part.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes_full.asp?kind=shortint&x=63&y=7&prevselected=SRDX&s...
It's nice to see the share price holding strong in the setting of a general market meltdown. I suspect we will see a smaller short position the next time data comes out but I wouldn't be surprised by anything right now. The analysts sure have alot to chew on. The Cypher millstone is getting smaller and smaller.
I think the JNJ/Cypher deal was one of the best things for SRDX and one of the worst things for SRDX. I guess that's what happens when you dance with elephants. I'll bet they learned some important lessons. Getting bigger fast the way they are will help in the future. I wonder if they wish that hadn't sold that contract manufacturing facility in Bloomington?
The people who are selling probably feel that GTCB is 'dead money' and perhaps that their money is more wisely invested elsewhere until more news comes out or FDA approval gets closer. I'll just sit on my shares and be patient cuz there's still a chance we could see some contract mfg agreements announced that could give us a bump. The patient investor who believes in the science should use this gift of underpriced shares to accumulate to a full position rather than complain about the doldrums we find ourselves in. The downside is minimal compared to the upside. I think the market has a negative attitude with regard to the FDA releasing new agents. Pharma companies are downsizing in anticipation of heated generic competition and goats just aren't that glamourous right now.
That explanation is however really boring compared to conspiracy theories with big boy manipulators chuckling in smoke filled rooms, devilishly rubbing their hands together and going, "Muh, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha haah!"
It seems to me that $40M(66M eventually) is a small price to pay for a company with 12.7M revs (and growing pre royalties). The only way it makes sense to me is that Brookwood may have had some patent problems with SRDX on the horizon? or else SRDX message of 'join us and get richer' must have been pretty compelling. Either way, its all good for SRDX shareholders as I see it. I will also stay a buy and hold investor with this company. I used to buy on dips and sell at peaks. Now I just buy on dips and accumulate. When the share price dips below 200d MA is a good time to add. A few years ago I got a bunch more in the upper teens at 'the sky is falling' bargain prices. As I recall BSX was a high flyer back then. I should have followed my instincts and also shorted BSX. Oh, well.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=SRDX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m200&a=&c=bsx
Boston Scientific Exec: Patients Will Return to Stents
From WSJ’s blog on health and the business of health.
July 20, 2007, 12:32 pm
Posted by Jacob Goldstein
As Boston Scientific announced worse-than-expected earnings this morning, the company’s COO argued that many patients who have recently opted to receive drug treatment instead of stents for coronary artery disease will wind up getting stents eventually.
“A lot of patients are now on more aggressive medical management,” COO Paul LaViolette said, according to a conference call transcript from Thomson Financial. “History shows us, data shows us those patients don’t tolerate the drugs well, they don’t stay on drug protocols long.”
Some patients now being treated with drugs will undoubtedly wind up getting stents. But it’s not clear how many. And recent trends suggest the go-go days of stenting won’t be back anytime soon. Indeed, U.S. doctors implanted fewer stents last month than they had in any month during the past year, the WSJ’s Keith Winstein reported this morning.
U.S. sales of Boston Scientific’s drug-eluting stents were down 41% to $249 million in the second quarter compared with the year-earlier quarter, the company said today. (The percent decline was nearly identical to the 41% fall for rival J&J’s stents).
Sales of the company’s implantable defibrillators also fell. Overall, the company earned $115 million during the second quarter, down from last year and well below analysts’ estimate of $150 million.
Apparently LFB likes the rabbit mammary glycosylation better? How much protein can a rabbit produce in a year? I wonder if they're hiring rabbit guards? That would make my resume complete.
I bought more too. I see the downside as miniscule compared to the upside. What more could an investor ask for? I'm looking for early retirement, not a boat. Perhaps Dew will give me a ride in his Yacht named 'Maa-aaa-aaah' someday?
Pre_Clinical
I like to see dissenting opinions when backed up and I think you're doing that. I was a long time long on Yahoo's KOSP board and everyone liked me until I said, "OK, we had a nice ride, but I'm taking profits and will sell out soon". I turned into a Pariah, Benedict Arnold, etc. I got accused of a lot of things I didn't deserve. My suggestion is don't take anything personally and stay objective. If you have no hidden agenda beyond what you state (and no alias 'sympathiser') then the truth will become evident.
On the other hand, if you are someone who is heavily invested in an alternative therapeutic protein production platform with a hidden agenda to discredit GTCB and scare off other investors then you are truly wasting your time.
Have a great day.
Does anyone have updated projections on the annual incidence in the US and EU re: severe sepsis WITH DIC?
Back of the napkin analysis:
If one assumes 225K deaths per year due to severe sepsis/DIC in US alone and assumes most of those who died would have been candidates for DIC treatment and a fair chunk of the survivors would have been as well then I would conservatively estimate an annual pool of 0.5 Million people in US and EU as treatment candidates. Let's say GTCB/LEO can capture 20% of that market (higher than Xigress [$7000/Rx] since bleeding is not an issue and lower cost).
Lets say Atryn costs $4500 to treat a case of DIC/sepsis.
15%(GTCB share ?) * $4500 * 20% * 0.5M/yr = $ 68M/yr to GTCB pre-tax.
I'm certain there are alot of flaws in my analysis and assumptions but revenue in that range by 2010+ helps support the notion that this company is pretty undervalued, even if one assumes <50% chance Atryn will ever get the DIC indication. Given the problems with current state of the art with Xigris and encouraging early clinical results with Atryn without heparin I personally think there's a 70% chance of success. The market is yearning for something better than Xigris and Atryn is it, IMO.
OT: I like ABT. Simvastatin-Niaspan will eat up vytorin + stents look good.
It was communicated to me that prior to the latest round of financing SRDX stake was 'under 5%'. I would guestimate we're now 'under 3%'. I agree that the real money for SRDX will be in the royalties and we're probably looking at a procedure that costs ~$10K. I noticed that Novocell likes to take all the credit for the encapsulation technology in their public statements. I think this technology will pan out. Looking forward to hearing about human results with the allografts. They seem pretty confident about differentiating stem cells into insulin producing cells. Just hope they can back it up.
If this guy is impressed, then maybe we should expect good things?
"I am extremely pleased that SurModics has teamed with Paragon and Apollo to pursue the development and commercialization of this important technology," said Stuart Williams, Ph.D., Scientific Director at the Cardiovascular Innovation Institute in Louisville, Kentucky. "I have been working for over two decades to understand the mechanisms and specific cell types involved in biomaterial healing and applying that knowledge to improve medical devices. In all those years, I have never seen results in stent applications as impressive as those achieved in SurModics' preclinical studies incorporating the FINALE prohealing coating technology."
I read this as an indication that reduction in restenosis may be part of the 'impressive' preclinical results. Perhaps the ECM coating really does inhibit scar tissue as well as promote healing. Why not? Furthermore, a 25% reduction in stent/balloon complex diameter sounds pretty impressive to me. I would surmise that SRDX lubricity will also play a role in the delivery system. SRDX bought an equity stake in the company, as did BSX[guys with a big sales force].
If SRDX truly wants to climb the value chain in the stent market, then an eventual buyout of a company like Apollo (kind of like Innorex) sounds intriguing.
SRDX has a lot of cash.
Just some random thoughts.
Who owns the patent on GlycoPEGylation(TM)?
Does anyone recognize the ortho Knee device pictured here? Specifically the manufacturer?
http://www.surmodics.com/pageDetail.aspx?pageId=109&menuId=111
Great sluething, wise atomist!
I'd be willing to bet the smarter of the intellectually challenged shorts have been buying. Perhaps there are new shorters selling to these buyers? There usually appears a new wave of them after a stock runs up like this. They are of the 'What runs up quickly, must correct downward' ilk. I pleasantly watched 3 waves of them get burned on KOS after they settled a dispute with Barr, while Jaharis' wife had purchased a nasty amount of KOS stock at bargain prices and the shorts were caught with their pants down on a big run.
Another great day for the patient, long holders of SRDX. This run appears to have legs.
The orthopedics device market is much bigger than stents. Hopefully a major deal is in the works.
I like this trend:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=3m&s=SRDX&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=jnj
Great points. I would guess that there are still uncertainties as relates to potential unknown adverse events in a transgenically derived product that may not become apparent until the product is released and the number of people treated is high enough to uncover a potentially serious problem that occurs with a low frequency. Look at the late thrombosis issue with drug eluting stents. They started out like the greatest thing since short pants and then the enthusiam cooled down when it became apparent that patients would need to be on potent anti-platelet agents for years or risk sudden death. I wouldn't be surprised if the market stays cautious until Atryn has been around for a while. Theoretically the products should be much easier to produce at a lower cost with a better safety profile than the plasma derived alternative and work as well or better but that has yet to be proven. The proof is in the goat's milk pudding.