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I can't get the link to work.
BTW how many times would like like to go through this?
We already have products from cancerous hamster ovarian cells on the market as well as from other eukaryotes, so what's the big deal about using goat mammary cells for production, sheesh!
Complex glycolated proteins and such have been looking for a platform and this is now it. "Salmon and eggs and cancerous hamster ovarian cells, Oh my". The flying monkeys will be attacked by the flying goats. I have a friend at Amgen supervising Enbrel production and I have been bending his ear on the goats for a while now. This will get interesting.
Dew,
I bought in due to your faith and enthusiasm and my own due dligence that convinced me that the technology was sound. I lacked a bit of faith in managemnent so I got in with only a fairly substantial position (my KOS rollover). When it tanked like a rock I decided the only wise thing to do was just hold on because I believed in the science and everything else sucked just about as bad at the time and still does. My only mistake was not buying more at rock bottomn(throwing good money after bad). Now I am not yet happy but feel vindicated for my decision to hang on, and hold it I will until major profit I do see. The Atryn deal is proof of concept and no real gold mine but I am a relatively young and patient investor. I will see this thing through as I will with SRDX (got started at 3 1/2 on that one). 5 years from now I will invite you to my party. Thanks.
Sciz
Once weekly basal insulin will be a market leader once it is released. Just don't get sick and throw up your lunch once you take it.
Pardon my being out of commission for a while and if this question has been answered before I apologize. Do we have any idea how much of the milestone $248M is for non-HD related activity? In other words could we expect additional future milestone payments beyond this sum for the acquired indications?
I bet AT has a lot lower risk of brain bleeds than the thrombolytics, plus the anti-inflammatory aspects. Sounds like a great potential market for AT, bigger than anything else contemplted so far. Baby boomers are starting to have strokes. As I see it AT is the perfect agent to reduce thrombosis risk without increasing bleeding risk compared to the alternatives and it seems to me that any sort of deficiency of AT either congenital or aquired is a very bad bad thing. I will hold my paltry shares till the end, whatever that is but I'm not buying more because of the schleps running the company. Bad fiscal management - too much being given away and too much dilution to 'survive'. I like the science but that is never enough.
I would guess the study may be redesigned to allow laser treatments during the trial in some fashion. Denying laser treatments to study participants is now perhaps unethical. Does anyone know the trial design for IIb as relates to laser treatments?
Does anyone know if the delivery system for the BSX version called PROMUS is the same? In other words will SRDX also get royalties on the PROMUS delivery system's lubricious coating? My recollection is that the Xience delivery system does have SRDX lubricity coating.
I see a cheap as dirt takeover rather than a partnership or reverse split. GTCB has very little leverage at this share price. They have intellectual property and no cash and very little income. The big boys know they can't last. Where's the White Knight? I don't see one. The elephants are stamping. The vultures and sharks and eels are circling.
I suspect Koch would use a charitable remainder trust and remain the trustee in control of what happens with shares till his death. That is how rich people do it. They like to remain in control till they die or beyond for that matter. It is in their power to do so.
The share price could not be propped up by token insider buying nor by the inanely expected positive HD trial data without the anticipated partnership coming to fruition. Bad calculations by GTCB's management. This backup plan for not signing a less than stellar partnership deal didn't work out as expected and many investors bailed IMO. Dilution occurred with a very low share price to begin with and now the management has lots of egg on its face and minimal cash. Too much egg and too little cash, IMO.
I will hold on to my shares but now my faith in management has been shaken so I will not buy any more 'cheap' shares. They will likely become cheaper as time goes on and GTCB's financial reserves dwindle. They let us believe the partnership was in the bag and nows its a nebulous affair, much too nebulous for this investor. The vultures and eels are circling whilst GTCB tries to keep its head above water.
I agree this is mostly for Type I's, at least at first. However it is my understanding that there are many insulin dependent Type II's who have essentially 'burned out' their islet cells and can't get by without insulin. I'm not sure what percentage of Type II's this represents. It seems to me that if they were normal body weight, insulin dependent and with low intrinsic insulin levels they should benefit from islet transplants. They are stuck doing all the injections and monitoring. If their insurance required them to get to a reasonable body weight before approving the transplants we might see more weight loss in the chubby ones. I also understand that preventing CV events in diabetics requires reasonable glucose control with aggressive lipid and BP management, but that's just my belief - I've seen it go both ways in my family. I know the ADA basically says to normalize all the lipid parameters (including raising HDL, if necessary) and Lowering LDL to aggressive targets and even placing diabetics with 'normal' LDL levels to begin with on statins to drop LDL's by 30+%. Judging from the diabetics I know, many of them are not very compliant or their physician is lackadaisical. Prevention doesn't get the attention it deserves, IMO. Also, I think that advanced lipid testing with particle counts and particle size distribution should be done on a lot of these pre-diabetics as well as diabetics. Normalizing LDL particle numbers rather than LDL content should be the goal. The Acute coronary event may be the first inkling of trouble, years before they cross the arbitrary line that defines diabetes. Its a bad 'disease' and a lot of people have it and I even hear that fat, lazy kids are now being diagnosed with 'adult onset' diabetes. This is an epidemic and its effects will be devastating to the costs of healthcare, IMO.
I think if its on a hospital formulary for HD they would likely restrict its use for that purpose. But at 3 in the morning if some doc was dealing with a dying sepsis patient...
who knows? I'm just guessing it could be used off label under the right circumstances. Then again the hospital might not even order it unless they had a planned surgical/OB admission with HD. What's the shelf life anyway? I would guess that might determine if it would even be available for a maverick doc with a wild hair. Maybe at a big hospital with some big shot infection specialist who can do what he wants.
Wishfull conjecture on my part.
I think the lackluster earinings conference call and lack of substantive news seems to fit in nicely with company plans to buy back $35M in shares. Does it not?
Perhaps we need more token insider buys to prop up the share price?
Specific Aim # 3. Develop an oral dosage form of transgenic recombinant human Factor IX, and evaluate in hemophilia B mice and dog models. Oral administration of coagulation therapy will obviate the invasiveness, discomfort, potential for opportunistic infection, and complications of storage and supplies that accompany intravenous administration. Oral dosage forms of Factor IX will thus greatly increase the proportion of the patient population that can be treated. There is also published evidence suggesting that oral administration may reduce the potential for complicating immune responses to replacement therapy, especially in patients with severe hemophilia.
http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?filename=0&article=1000&context=chemeng_fundedproposals&type=additional
As I understand it Hemophilia A or Factor VIII deficiency is much more common than Hemophilia B or Factor IX deficiency so I find it interesting that GTCB decided not to collaborate with LFB on Factor VIII. I think they sold out on EU Factor IX to get the cash and wish to partner with an alternative plasma company for factor VIII/IX marketing to get a better deal. The market could turn out to be pretty sizable if cost efficiencies could bring the price down enough to make chronic rather than 'acute only' replacement feasible. I think that's the whole idea behind the pig project and should not be overlooked as a potentially large source of revenue. The pig people practically gave away the market to the western world due to the patent on mammal milk production held by GTCB. It all makes sense to me.
Why did GTCB management indicate late 2007 expected revenues from a partnership if they didn't feel the deal was close to being done prior to data being released? Wasn't that premature on their part? Should we buy at $0.80 or wait for $0.70?
I'm thinking GTCB has decided their bargaining position has been damaged by the slide in share price and wait for a bolster from trial data with a bump in share price to negotiate a better deal. They were perhaps naive in alluding to the deal proceeds before it was a done deal. The delay has eroded the share price further. They should have asked Dale Oleseth(SRDX v. JNJ) for advice. Dancing with elephants for fun and profit is not easy.
I like to keep it simple. There's a 95% likelihood or greater that if Atryn doesn't cause symptomatic DVT then it will be found non-inferior. It's a lot lower bar than trying to show superiority. It's like being a midget in a limbo contest whose goal is not to lose. I like the odds and I've got my money on the midget. Why shouldn't it work? I'll bet GTCB is negotiating their pants off trying to cut a good deal with a much bigger pharma and attempting to avoid getting steamrolled in the process. Its called dancing with elephants without getting squished. The biggest risk I see is a partnership deal that isn't as sweet as investors hope for, but at least insures survival. The current share price creates doubts. Fortune favors the brave little people.
Is anyone here going?
http://www.crtonline.org/pr.aspx?PAGE_ID=4825
I would venture a guess that old Dale Oleseth has endorsed Robert Buhrmaster as a new director as well. I usually just rubber stamp whatever SRDX recommends. I have not yet been misled by this company and I think Bruce as CEO is doing an outstanding job of growing shareholder value. There are few investment options with this degree of safety and growth potential and the moves this company is making with their cash hoard seem very well thought out to me.
Here's how to look at it... Unless Atryn causes DVT it will prove non-inferior. Duh! The FDA will have to approve ATryn, the orphan drug with DIC potential that could. Chuga chuga choooo..choooooooo!!!
BTW, a baseball player at the plate with a 2-0 count will strike out, foul out, fly out or ground out more often than not.
Is there unhappy news on the way? I thought .87 was rock bottom.
Today's Short-Squeeze Plays: SRDX
By Jason Raznick
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/26/2007 2:49 PM EST
Click here for more stories by Jason Raznick Click Here for Your FREE Report
5 Strategies for Surviving Volatile Markets
Concerns over the state of the economy have weighed on investor sentiment, sending many high-quality stocks down and creating potential short-squeeze trading opportunities. The short interest ratio (or simply the short ratio) is a measure of a stock's short position divided by the average daily volume. In other words, it is a measure of the number of days it would take short-sellers to cover their entire positions if the share price begins to appreciate.
1. Price Targets for Tech's Four Horsemen
2. The Next Debt Danger: Second Lien Loans
3. Looming Cash Piles Bode Well
4. Prepare for More of a Selloff; Look at AAPL
5. Don't Lean on Last Year's Market for Confidence
A short squeeze takes place when the share price of a shorted stock appreciates, sending short-sellers scrambling to cover their bearish positions. If there is some unexpected good news, a heavily shorted stock may surge, resulting in good returns.
When I'm looking for potential short-squeeze plays, I look for certain situations. Today, I looked at companies in the health care sector that had a short ratio above 15 and a market cap over $300 million. (You can see the rest of the Top Short-Squeezes on Stockpickr.)
One highly shorted stock is SurModics (SRDX - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), with a short ratio of 30.9 and 31.78% of its float shorted. The developer of drug-delivery technologies for the health care industry announced a $35 million share-repurchase program in November. It also announced the completion of its prior buyback program, under which it repurchased about one million shares at an average price of $34.76 per share.
Additionally, SRDX not only beat Wall Street expectations but also reported record revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter. Revenue rose 21% to $21.3 million. EPS was also ahead at 47 cents. Some other factors that weigh in favour of the stock are the company's P/E ratio of 287.55 and a P/E/G ratio of 1.5. Also, insiders own a large part of the company.
The stock is owned by the Winslow Green Growth Fund, which recently increased its stake in the company. This fund also owns Fuel Tech (FTK - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), which has a short ratio of 9.3, Whole Foods Market (WFMI - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), with a short ratio of 4.5, and First Solar (FSLR - commentary - Cramer's Take), with a short ratio of 1.5.
SRDX has a diverse portfolio, which is good during economic uncertainties. It recently acquired BioFX Laboratories for $22.7 million to broaden its product base and has signed a record number of licensing deals this year. With the board and smart funds buying shares, the company issuing a bullish earnings reports and the high short-ratio, it may be a good idea to add this stock to your portfolio, which I would do if the shares dip below $53.
A trend in short interest since June
Settlement Date
Short Interest
Avg Daily Share Volume
Days to Cover
Dec. 14, 2007 4,255,286 108,747 39.13
Nov. 30, 2007 4,852,534 157,032 30.90
Nov. 15, 2007 4,824,376 166,475 28.98
Oct. 31, 2007 4,639,821 116,509 39.82
Oct. 15, 2007 4,686,341 121,177 38.67
Sep. 28, 2007 4,763,580 96,482 49.37
Sep. 14, 2007 4,937,779 123,502 39.98
Aug. 15, 2007 5,092,227 230,287 22.11
Jul. 13, 2007 5,035,766 287,617 17.51
Jun. 15, 2007 6,619,853 147,076 45.01
May 15, 2007 6,504,926 213,420 30.48
Apr. 13, 2007 6,336,975 192,486 32.92
Re: Pneumonia in rats given antithrombin
Does this study suggest a rationale for human trials using antithrombin in patients with Pneumonia/Sepsis without DIC? Perhaps the Leo trials might want to include this group, or is it too late for that?
WOT: A veritable non-hangover concoction I'll bet. Now who has the guts to try it?
>>way o/t: New drink: WHO screwdriver.
(btw, shouldn't all of it be in metric measurements?)
Ingredients:
4 ounces Vodka
1 quart or liter of drinking or boiled Water
1/4 teaspoon of Salt
1/4 teaspoon Baking Soda (bicarbonate of soda).
2 tablespoons of Sugar or Honey
1/2 cup orange juice (for potassium and flavor)
<<
OT: You should try the World Health Organization's oral rehydration formula. It can easily be concocted from home supplies.
Making a quart or litre solution
using Sugar or Honey, Salt, Baking Soda, OJ, and Water
Ingredients:
1 quart or liter of drinking or boiled Water
1/4 teaspoon of Salt
1/4 teaspoon Baking Soda (bicarbonate of soda).
2 tablespoons of Sugar or Honey
1/2 cup orange juice (for potassium and flavor)
Preparation Method:
Stir the mixture till the salt and sugar dissolve.
Notes: If baking soda is not available,
or if vomitting only, substitue another 1/4 teaspoon of salt.
This stuff is equimolar sugar molecules and sodium molecules that co-transport accross the gut endothelium and osmotically pull water. The overall concentration of salt to water is similar to plasma. Its like drinking an IV bottle. It goes right into the circulation. Works well even if you're puking your guts out or spewing out your butt like a banshee. Kicks ass for hangovers like you wouldn't believe. Way cool. This could saves a bazillion lives in third world countries if people would use it.
Too bad they sold that building in ?Bloomington, MN. Thanks JNJ. I think they decided that they wanted control of the coating process with Merck, rather than watch them screw it up as JNJ did.
>>Data mining has both a positive and a negative connotation. The negative connotation applies when a pivotal trial fails and the sponsor looks around for a way to salvage the clinical program without having to run a new trial. This is what a great many biotech companies do all the time. It hardly ever fools the FDA but it sometimes fools investors long enough to prevent a total collapse of the stock price.<<
That is exacly what ABT did after the FIELD trial failed its primary endpoint and nobody bought it. If you don't hit the primary endpoint then nothing in the secondary stuff is really valid as I see it. Then ABT bought KOSP to get Niaspan, among other things. Jaharis sold KOSP when it looked like Torcetrapib was going to take over the HDL market. I think ABT knew something Jaharis didn't. Now ABT is promoting Niaspan over Tricor and touting outcomes data from HATS and the ARBITER studies.
Quintessential is difficult to spell but fun to say. I agree the LFB deal had similar connnotations but it could have been interpreted more as desperation for cash than confirmation of platform. The market for hemophilia factors is larger and more established. I like pigs more than I did previously.
It's fascinating to me that pigs make better Factor VIII, IX, and fibrinogen than goats do, and that a company went way far into development to the point of considering big-time commercialization only to hit a little snag in terms of getting to market - A BIG FAT PATENT ISSUE that forced this company to knuckle under and GIVE UP the rights to commercialize these pig produced products to the WESTERN WORLD AND JAPAN. This $3B deal should WAKE UP the market to realize that transgenic milk production GOES THRU GTCB. This, to me, is the quintiscential event event that PUTS GTCB on the map for complex protein production and low cost production of proteins, regardless of the mammal making the milk. BUY!!! and don't look back. Jeez, you guys don't see the importance of this. THIS IS BIG TIME NEWS, to me, at least. Am I weird for thinking this is a big deal. No one is buzzing about it on this board. Who cares about orphan status for Atryn when this is on the table. I don't. The plasma products and recombinant products available CAN'T COMPETE with this platform. This is just the tip of the iceberg, guys.
>>I do not know whether the subset was biased toward "surviors". My impression is it was not. Dew may know more about this. I think its a good question. <<
I'm not a statistician, but as I see it, for the subgroups of heparin vs non heparin to be valid there would have to be randomization pre treatment. If heparin vs not was up to the whim of the treating docs then you can't draw a valid conclusion, rather just speculation and a nudge to do futher studies. I think that was the case, correct me if I'm wrong.
>>I have 36,000. But I guess that's peanuts in comparison to many. Share cost basis is $1.24 but the real question to ask is what percent of your total portfolio is tied up in GTCB? In mine it's less than 2%. I wonder how many people have invested more than 10% of their total? <<
I'm at 10%, but willing to go higher. This sub $1 share price is a gift. I'm still buying.
In for a penny, in for a pound.
Fortes fortuna adiuvat
I bought, I buy, I profit.
I hope.
Let's see if I get this straight. GTCB just shelled out $1M for the rights to a $3B market. The only reason they pulled this off is by having locked up the patent rights to transgenic milk production of proteins and the nuts to enforce those patents in North America, EU, and Japan - also the most lucrative markets where higher prices can be had. $0.94/shr looks even more ridiculously cheap than it did before this deal. Who cares about the $1M? That's peanuts. This is a great big huge deal for GTCB. I wonder when the market will wake up to the implications? The plasma derived market for these products will dry up - driven out of business due to risk and the competitive pressures of the much lower cost production platform of the transgenic proteins. Future profits from a $3B market a couple of years down the road should jack the price of GTCB up at least a couple bucks if you ask me.
Thanks. I wonder if SRDX has any sort of stake in the Xience delivery system, ala MDT's Endeavor? I couldn't find anything.
Has anyone kept a handy list of stents that SRDX has a financial interest in?