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Roy - what happened to litigation between RVNC and EOLS? wasn't there a legal case between the two regarding IP? I had not paid any attention to that but read a twit on it some weeks ago.
haven't added in years.. but
waiting for 16.0x level to add 10k shares..
tomorrow maybe.. if amzn ER is "bad".. market gaps down and have a chance to grab them cheaper.
not worried.. in 2 yrs.. we will be bought out for 45$
Just to share 100% anecdotal experience being a Korean, having lived/worked in Korea on and off for past 20 years.
I am Korean native but an American. In Korea, men and women use "botox" products routinely. In Korea, botox injection cost is very affordable (Chinese origin is cheapest, maybe $100/injection that lasts 2-3 mo.; Korean origin maybe $120/injection 3-4 mo.). It has become a routine part of people's aesthetics routine, and very widely used.
This has been a phenomenon for 10 years and thus a routine, and aesthetics shops are very competitive in pricing.
For us, if there is a botox product that truly lasts 2x longer (from 3-4 mo. to 6 mo), I think there would be a large adoption, even at a slight premium (I have no idea what the RVNC pricing might look like in the USA or international).
Problem with Allergan competitors today is that all of those products do not truly offer differentiation, that I am aware of. So, some people in Korea go w/ Chinese product due to being cheapest (young, ordinary students, etc); next would be Korean local product as they are reliable and affordable (my wife when we lived there); and more affluent people (Kang-nam millionaires or wanna-be's) might go for Allergan brand (or whatever is latest name brand) just b/c they can afford it.
I have been an investor for many years w/ RVNC. I am a firm believer of their success IF they can get the FDA nod in Sept. And unlike most FDA approved drugs, I think RVNC lead product will gain fast and wide acceptance (20%-25% w/in 3-4 years).
So, I get the naysayers in the past, but I like RVNC chances.
By the way, I don't see any poss. scenario that RVNC goes alone down the road. Larger Pharma will be in a better position to use scale and resources to accelerate adoption. RVNC has to get bought out w/in 24 mo.
my 5 cents worth. (well lately w/ my bio land performance - maybe my NEGATIVE 25 cents worth).
Buyout should be at least 4-5B for RVNC BOD to approve, I think.
so, is this imply that FDA may or may not accept the submission? I had assumed (until today) that submission was accepted.. my bad for assuming that
w/ TGTX failure, what competitor co's may benefit from this? IF any?
Earlier I saw Japanese co. failed in oral Covid pill which then saw ENTA and PRDS benefit from one less competitor pursuing same indication.
Any TGTX competitors in this or just a TGTX ?
Dew, any insights on what FDA labeling might look like? Approval seems highly likely but labeling may be more critical?
so FDA did walk through in June as expected..
Any idea when FDA would actually render decision then? Q3? or Q4?
just seem to take a lifetime for this... been in RVNC since I was a baby - figuratively speaking
Any catalysts - near term? it's been a dog for 2 years... really disappointing for a company w/ great science... just do not understand the market's ignorance
cratering..
but did have 2 huge up days
yes i am aware. biggest frustration of LGND reg. shares have been just that... mkt seems to be asleep on LGND (vs GILD which is getting the attention, rightfully so). LGND is so undervalued..
GILD will prob be > $100 once CV drug is 'approved' - how can they NOT approve imo.... for many reasons.
thanks for the postings. appreciate it man.
still not sure what would be driving this 10X + increase just in a few days with few of these CVs associated with LGND.
I mean I hold LGND for many years and I do know they are 'supporting' GILD's Coronavirus drug (potentially) but the regular shares have been stagnant at best.. yet these CVs are rocketing higher. I just don't get the link
guys, sorry i am novice here, but why have these LGND OTC plays have gone up few hundred % last 2 days. what's driving them? any quick 1-2 line replies are welcome. i have LGND in my regular shares and been a fan for long time but never looked at these warrant plays
it's not ideal market environment but deals have been done in bad times. potential buyers be limited to mega cap BPs - it won't be GILD. Maybe TAK.
Factually speaking IOVA BOD is open to a deal at reasonable valuation and in this environment, i think $48-55 is prob the deal range a potential buyer might be willing to pursue. $60-70 is not feasible and no reason for BP to pay that much in this market.
i don't pay much attention to rumors but options speak volume. there are always big money that has insights to what we, retail, do not know. given continuing option activity in shorter duration (April calls), I think deal is in the works and likely get it done tomorrow or within 1-2 weeks.
However, if there is no deal within next few days to 1 week,
ceo disposed 22800 shares via 10b5-1 schedule.
is this something he does often? i can't remember seeing 2 many of these scheduled sales
given they do a lot of ATMs.. not sure if they even need another round soon
they sure are good at ATMs
rvnc hasn't much this year. not sure why.
anyone know timing of data? DEC?
i think 2 data in q4...
pretty undervalued here - no one seems to care. anemic vol
Roy, do you have an updated valuation model for ENTA? I recall seeing one 2 years ago roughly. based on price action, it seems market isn't giving much credit for 1st generation product w/ ABBV. or its P/L.
Dew, what do u think of Meip? if any. market cap is now 60M . 20M below cash level. MDS failed primary end point but there is AML and other pipeline. further MDS could still be for second line ...over reaction imo. any thougts
true if data blows away on the positive side.
issue is one never knows until data is released. thus risk/reward.
if it were so obvious, it wouldn't be a 400M MC co.
right now, it's under the radar, but since Dec, it's gaining notice.. pps has moved 80% in several weeks.
might be a $40 stock before April Data..
with good data, it might be a $80-100 stock this year.. bad data, back to single digit
wide wide range possible depending on data.
Dew
do u think fda approval is priced in ?
seems such a low hurdle at this point and most expect approval, so i think current pps has it priced in.. logical?
we r at $41 (was in the low to mid 30's few months ago)... gone up from 20 to 40 in 1 year..seems to me, it's priced in?
holding still but not sure what to expect if/when we get fda ok
expect this shelf registration to be used for
1) refinance debt (very important)
2) product or company acquisition - accretive (to foster growth in addition to organic clean up and growth it's been doing)
If Carol does these two things w/ this shelf, then company will be a $10-$15 stock in 2015
good luck to longs
4.5/share target is low. Q3 and Q4 EPS is going to be 6-8 cents per adjusted share. 2014 full year adjusted EPS likely to be 20 - 24 cents, and 2015 in the range of 40-50 cents a share.
We should see a new all time high within 12 months.
I see rest of year to be fixing some inventory issues, and other expense controls (recalls, old management overlap, temp labor control), while accelerating e commerce and int'l. 2015 might be a sweet year
very long SUMR well over 100K shares.
BULL
what do you think BULL. you were a bit overestimating the #s for this Q2.
personally the rev was right where i thought and EPS was a bit lower than i had projected.
but everything in the Q2 is solid. continuing improvement from past and turnaround is continuing.
best statement was CEO continues to see growth in both revenue and EPS and margins for remainder of year
anything to add?
another solid QTR although not a blowout QTR
beat REV estimate by 1M $
in line adjusted EPS at .03 (in line w/ analysts' EPS)
gross profit margin increased again versus Q2 (continuing to increase each qtr)
this bodes well for rest of year
CEO stated "sequential higher in both revenue and EPS" for rest of year again reiterating her stance after Q1 call.
so in summary,
Beat Rev
In line EPS
Guides higher by stating sequential higher rev and EPS
solid!
Bull.
we seem to be taking a detour to where we want to go. i have been accumulating this thing for 3 weeks now at all levels from 3.5 ~ 4.2.
1 week + profit taking on relatively lower volume.
any view changed?
sounds good. i listened to last few Q calls several times and checked some of their channels and i liked it.
not a lot of attention either by retail or shorts (yet).
i think mostly funds are buying
earnings in 2 weeks
just realized that Harry Boxer (@thetechtrader) also did a quick review of SUMR chart and he says "after massive base" in 2013-2014 from $1-$3 range, it broke out recently and is now headed for "$6"
that's also in line w/ what we are saying... he is purely technical, but combined w/ fundamentally improving biz, not bad at all
really surprised of strength of pps despite a strong move past month.
30% move and still ER to go.
i hope it is not buy the rumor and sell the news. it could be.
unless the ER is strong again: higher sales, better than 5 cent eps, better margin again, etc.
it's possible. Q2 'should' be stronger than Q1. better weather for Summer's SKUs, better inventory management for their monitor line and others that they had some trouble w/ in Q1, etc.
my expectation is 52M in sales, and 6 ot 7 cent EPS.
5-6 PPS after earnings
Bull
i enjoy your posts here and even in SUMR where i have a lot of shares.
but i do wonder why is this article having such a devastating effect on pps? i am amazed. it is CLEAR he is just a small timer, one individual, yet has caused 200M drop in Market cap.
to me, it clearly shows that this company needs professional coverage in the USA (not HK) and needs to be more involved w/ the investor community - not pumping but constant communication on facts and development.
until it happens, the whip saw volatility is here to stay. traders prob love it, but it scares me to death.
i prefer SUMR. i hold 100K shares there waiting for a 5-6 range
one thing i have learned in situations where major shorts have embedded themselves like here..
they won't easily give up.. even when we all know the end result. it's nature of their greed.
investigations take a long time and we are dealing w/ the inefficient and often incompetent US government agency or agencies.
best scenario is NOT relying on the regulators, but to take action that will just kill the shorts - a Buy out at significantly higher price. That will do it.
Company management in normal circumstance might not want to sell the company for various reasons .. but in this case, it's the only way to get out of this endless torture (torture to share holders that is).
if DC is right, it might happen. But I have no idea if any / all the things DC has written will come to fruition.
need a lot of patience here... unless a BO is imminent
DC. all these posts are quite interesting and incredible.. as the stock is at near ridiculously low level, even with strong insider buys by executives.
something is severely wrong here for sure..
if BO offer is true and is coming, it's also disappointing to some degree at this $4 level. Even with 20-30% premium, it's barely $5-5.5/share. highly undervalued.
one of the strangest stock i've ever been involved w/
I think NKTR's is slam dunk recom approval. I do
PGNX/SLXP: not a slam dunk but if ADCOM panel is not on drugs, they should vote either NO CVOT at all or just do post marketing study for x # of years. AZN recommended 5 years of post marketing study.
AZN also said pre approval study would take 7 years - impractical and quite unnecessary. that is 90B company talking there. AZN exec also did a summary for all sponsors at the end summarizing why CV risk just isn't there and again offering post marketing as an alternative to satisfy FDA
with 24 panel members and only 3 cardiologists, I say vote is favorable for NKTR and PGNX
draft from ADCOM came out already to Salix. their VP commented on it earlier today to Forbes. It's on yahoo board message.
the way market is, when anything come out, people just blindly push it down (whether they understand it or not). about the time Salix VP commented to Forbes, we went down hard from 3.6 to 3.4's and lower. and never recovered.
actual briefing doc should come out Monday (2 day prior to event). not Friday. that's too early.
the adcom will be fine I think. notes, I am not sure, as they are always tough to read. refer to CHTP and MNKD.
we will prob have at least 1 short covering day - tomor or Friday. 30-40 cent move. that's where the money is made.
and if u hold through adcom and they recom approval, then a big pop into 5.5's to 6 to fill the gap.
a bit late for that. has already broken down few days ago when it broke below 3.92..
but due to FDA ADCOM, charts don't mean anything few next 1 week or so.
it's simple. ADCOM OK; up ADCOM not OK; down
forget technical for now
kei or others:
what is the expectation for ADCOM? seems from Scott Matusow's article that there is a higher than average expectation for ADCOM approval. Scott thinks FDA 'screwed up and is trying to save face'? I do agree that it is unusual to have an ADCOM with sNDA that got a CRL 2 years ago. what's the story?
the ADCOM notes will prob come out 3 days prior ... so maybe on Monday AM on 9th or Friday 6th June?
any insights on ADCOM would be appreciated.
what are price targets out there w/ ADCOM thumbs up?
Dew.
wish I found your posts one year earlier on ENTA. you did a nice job there. before ENTA is on the radar for any investors.
any other good stock ideas at the moment?
thanks
Dew:
is your Dec 2013 ENTA valuation the latest one out there?
any change from that calculation ?
looks like the market is starting to recognize ABBV and ENTA stock price. ABBV is near at 52 week high and steadily rising daily. Same w/ ENTA. Nothing parabolic (which I hate) but steady 2-3% rise daily for the past week. Once we close above $40, we will re-test 52 wk high
BSAV.
thanks. ATRS board has gone to you know what (YHB).. I have just left. But I hold 300K shares there cost basis 2.9
I hold 80K HZNP @ 12
I hold 20K ENTA @39
HERO - am looking at it. First non bio play so I would need some time ( in recent years anyway).
like that DC is in at much higher prices I think.
does not seem like it is going anywhere soon but in 6 months or more, I see 50% potential.
anyway, will do DD
happy long wknd. taking kids to Milwaukee river walk for 2 nights
possibly another close above BB (Bol band) if we close above 39.1.
think we might steadily rise in this manner to test 52 week high in 1-2 weeks. should hear FDA acceptance in June. it might not be a pps moving event, but will act as a firm base to go even higher into the summer and fall
disclosure:
22K share long (but cost basis is rather not as attractive as many longer holders... mine is 39).
near term: expect $45
q1 2015: expect $60
glta
Go ARMY!
Bsav
nice to see u here. I am old ATRS friend posting here for the first time. If I understood DC correctly, we expect more of the same range bound pressure for some time? been looking to get in, but the chart looks ugly and as a simple man, I just don't understand what's going on w/ all the manipulation.
what is your suggestion on timing of getting in and what to expect in the coming months
steve