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Q1 is never a good qtr for most bioland stocks. don't expect that to be diff here. and ceo has said so in prior comments. i think key is keeping the same 2024 overall guidance even w/ soft q1 #s (which i expect). and maybe, just maybe in Q2 or Q3 ER, they can actually beat the guidance and/or raise 2024 overall #s. that would be something. i don't think Q1 # by itself means much as long as overall 2024 # is in tact or even higher than $280 guidance.. (of course if lower guidance, then sure, we will lose even the $3 handle maybe), but i am here for 4-6 qtrs as this will take a lot of time to play out
w/ RVNC, not a stock you want to be watching tick by tick every day. that will make LT holders suicidal. i have been in RVNC for years (did exit a couple of times too), and recently entered, and I knew this would be a very long turnaround, if at all. i think we get Q1 ER out of the way (nothing special prob.) and need to see Q2 and Q3 to be the pivot point to turn this around. usually before that happens, share price would have bottomed well beforehand. i think 3.7 today would turn out to be the bottom.
why do you think they raised. they didn't need to...
i think we will know the reason in a day or two when this offering is closed. we need to find out who got into this offering before we judge.
- did ceo/insiders buy into offering as we had hoped for once blackout period was over. i certainly expected ceo to buy significant # of shares post ER. maybe this was one way.
- maybe one or more tutes wanted to get in w/ discount
- maybe the offering price is healthier level than just $6. maybe 6.5. maybe $7. we will know soon
i m not sure if this offering is all gloom and doom. i suspect CEO and/or other execs would get into this offering at lower price. and/or other funds. we will see soon. they didn't need to do this for sure, so why? maybe some individuals/execs/funds want to get in at this level. that's more likely
100M offering. did they really need to raise here? wonder why now at barely $7? do tutes or insiders want to get in at cheaper prices?
i would hope CEO buys some shares here post ER. i think 3 days post ER, execs can buy some shares. if he doesn't at sub $7, i be shocked. i recall he bought some in the teens a while back before run up to $30. i will be looking for this next week.
nice dip pre market for s1 filing. amazed still people react to those.
honestly, this is going to take few quarters to really gain any traction on a noticeable level. the mishaps can be fixed for sure, with the best product (imagine if RVNC product was shit and trying to adjust biz model). I think by Q2 ER this should be more evident. and if they are going to beat and raise their lower guidance, it prob will be Q2 and Q3 and Q4. Not Q1. Market looks 6 mo. ahead. I think we prob grind here in the 5-6-7$ range until next ER. after Q2 ER in August, if I am right, we should be double digit. In 12 mo. I still think we regain $15+ range. End game is still sell the co. I have been following for 5 years and still really like this co. Not the CEO but it is what it is.
nice spike in AH despite miss. seems like shorts covering into the ER.
when is ER? anyone
what's happened to RVNC lately? worse than those 20M microcap co's trading lower and lower. ENTA has been crushed... 2 stocks that should do better than typical bios, imo.
don't see any material news, so have to assume just the sentiment for RVNC.
yes. the market is open tday
maybe. prob. but hard to say given how weak XBI has been and enta volume has been very modest.
hard to assess fair value for ENTA at this time, coupled w/ bio meltdown. very disappointing to say the least
Yea I thought of that but at this SUB 1B Enter. Value, should Covid program (regardless of results) have such a decimating impact on the valuation?
I had thought given the royalty stream and cash level, of all bio land, ENTA would hold up better than others, but it actually has been worse or at least as bad as other small/med bios
Anyone has an idea why ENTA has been so weak lately? more so than most bios which have been hammered. ER should not have had this kind of impact.
honestly, they have a golden desirable most superior product out there with potential demand from all over the world who are self absorbed w/ their appearance...
shameful that it has taken so long to get to this point and MC that hasn't moved in years. my money has been sitting here for years. Don't think of CEO much, but if he can't get this to finish line and sell the co. for 4B+, he's a fool.
Roy - what happened to litigation between RVNC and EOLS? wasn't there a legal case between the two regarding IP? I had not paid any attention to that but read a twit on it some weeks ago.
haven't added in years.. but
waiting for 16.0x level to add 10k shares..
tomorrow maybe.. if amzn ER is "bad".. market gaps down and have a chance to grab them cheaper.
not worried.. in 2 yrs.. we will be bought out for 45$
Just to share 100% anecdotal experience being a Korean, having lived/worked in Korea on and off for past 20 years.
I am Korean native but an American. In Korea, men and women use "botox" products routinely. In Korea, botox injection cost is very affordable (Chinese origin is cheapest, maybe $100/injection that lasts 2-3 mo.; Korean origin maybe $120/injection 3-4 mo.). It has become a routine part of people's aesthetics routine, and very widely used.
This has been a phenomenon for 10 years and thus a routine, and aesthetics shops are very competitive in pricing.
For us, if there is a botox product that truly lasts 2x longer (from 3-4 mo. to 6 mo), I think there would be a large adoption, even at a slight premium (I have no idea what the RVNC pricing might look like in the USA or international).
Problem with Allergan competitors today is that all of those products do not truly offer differentiation, that I am aware of. So, some people in Korea go w/ Chinese product due to being cheapest (young, ordinary students, etc); next would be Korean local product as they are reliable and affordable (my wife when we lived there); and more affluent people (Kang-nam millionaires or wanna-be's) might go for Allergan brand (or whatever is latest name brand) just b/c they can afford it.
I have been an investor for many years w/ RVNC. I am a firm believer of their success IF they can get the FDA nod in Sept. And unlike most FDA approved drugs, I think RVNC lead product will gain fast and wide acceptance (20%-25% w/in 3-4 years).
So, I get the naysayers in the past, but I like RVNC chances.
By the way, I don't see any poss. scenario that RVNC goes alone down the road. Larger Pharma will be in a better position to use scale and resources to accelerate adoption. RVNC has to get bought out w/in 24 mo.
my 5 cents worth. (well lately w/ my bio land performance - maybe my NEGATIVE 25 cents worth).
Buyout should be at least 4-5B for RVNC BOD to approve, I think.
so, is this imply that FDA may or may not accept the submission? I had assumed (until today) that submission was accepted.. my bad for assuming that
w/ TGTX failure, what competitor co's may benefit from this? IF any?
Earlier I saw Japanese co. failed in oral Covid pill which then saw ENTA and PRDS benefit from one less competitor pursuing same indication.
Any TGTX competitors in this or just a TGTX ?
Dew, any insights on what FDA labeling might look like? Approval seems highly likely but labeling may be more critical?
so FDA did walk through in June as expected..
Any idea when FDA would actually render decision then? Q3? or Q4?
just seem to take a lifetime for this... been in RVNC since I was a baby - figuratively speaking
Any catalysts - near term? it's been a dog for 2 years... really disappointing for a company w/ great science... just do not understand the market's ignorance
cratering..
but did have 2 huge up days
yes i am aware. biggest frustration of LGND reg. shares have been just that... mkt seems to be asleep on LGND (vs GILD which is getting the attention, rightfully so). LGND is so undervalued..
GILD will prob be > $100 once CV drug is 'approved' - how can they NOT approve imo.... for many reasons.
thanks for the postings. appreciate it man.
still not sure what would be driving this 10X + increase just in a few days with few of these CVs associated with LGND.
I mean I hold LGND for many years and I do know they are 'supporting' GILD's Coronavirus drug (potentially) but the regular shares have been stagnant at best.. yet these CVs are rocketing higher. I just don't get the link
guys, sorry i am novice here, but why have these LGND OTC plays have gone up few hundred % last 2 days. what's driving them? any quick 1-2 line replies are welcome. i have LGND in my regular shares and been a fan for long time but never looked at these warrant plays
it's not ideal market environment but deals have been done in bad times. potential buyers be limited to mega cap BPs - it won't be GILD. Maybe TAK.
Factually speaking IOVA BOD is open to a deal at reasonable valuation and in this environment, i think $48-55 is prob the deal range a potential buyer might be willing to pursue. $60-70 is not feasible and no reason for BP to pay that much in this market.
i don't pay much attention to rumors but options speak volume. there are always big money that has insights to what we, retail, do not know. given continuing option activity in shorter duration (April calls), I think deal is in the works and likely get it done tomorrow or within 1-2 weeks.
However, if there is no deal within next few days to 1 week,
ceo disposed 22800 shares via 10b5-1 schedule.
is this something he does often? i can't remember seeing 2 many of these scheduled sales
given they do a lot of ATMs.. not sure if they even need another round soon
they sure are good at ATMs
rvnc hasn't much this year. not sure why.
anyone know timing of data? DEC?
i think 2 data in q4...
pretty undervalued here - no one seems to care. anemic vol
Roy, do you have an updated valuation model for ENTA? I recall seeing one 2 years ago roughly. based on price action, it seems market isn't giving much credit for 1st generation product w/ ABBV. or its P/L.
Dew, what do u think of Meip? if any. market cap is now 60M . 20M below cash level. MDS failed primary end point but there is AML and other pipeline. further MDS could still be for second line ...over reaction imo. any thougts
true if data blows away on the positive side.
issue is one never knows until data is released. thus risk/reward.
if it were so obvious, it wouldn't be a 400M MC co.
right now, it's under the radar, but since Dec, it's gaining notice.. pps has moved 80% in several weeks.
might be a $40 stock before April Data..
with good data, it might be a $80-100 stock this year.. bad data, back to single digit
wide wide range possible depending on data.
Dew
do u think fda approval is priced in ?
seems such a low hurdle at this point and most expect approval, so i think current pps has it priced in.. logical?
we r at $41 (was in the low to mid 30's few months ago)... gone up from 20 to 40 in 1 year..seems to me, it's priced in?
holding still but not sure what to expect if/when we get fda ok
expect this shelf registration to be used for
1) refinance debt (very important)
2) product or company acquisition - accretive (to foster growth in addition to organic clean up and growth it's been doing)
If Carol does these two things w/ this shelf, then company will be a $10-$15 stock in 2015
good luck to longs
4.5/share target is low. Q3 and Q4 EPS is going to be 6-8 cents per adjusted share. 2014 full year adjusted EPS likely to be 20 - 24 cents, and 2015 in the range of 40-50 cents a share.
We should see a new all time high within 12 months.
I see rest of year to be fixing some inventory issues, and other expense controls (recalls, old management overlap, temp labor control), while accelerating e commerce and int'l. 2015 might be a sweet year
very long SUMR well over 100K shares.
BULL
what do you think BULL. you were a bit overestimating the #s for this Q2.
personally the rev was right where i thought and EPS was a bit lower than i had projected.
but everything in the Q2 is solid. continuing improvement from past and turnaround is continuing.
best statement was CEO continues to see growth in both revenue and EPS and margins for remainder of year
anything to add?