This was interesting too from Trump's social media account:
I just had a great call with the Acting President of South Korea. We talked about their tremendous and unsustainable Surplus, Tariffs, Shipbuilding, large scale purchase of U.S. LNG, their joint venture in an Alaska Pipeline, and payment for the big time Military Protection we provide to South Korea. They began these Military payments during my first term, Billions of Dollars, but Sleepy Joe Biden, for reasons unknown, terminated the deal. That was a shocker to all! In any event, we have the confines and probability of a great DEAL for both countries. Their top TEAM is on a plane heading to the U.S., and things are looking good. We are likewise dealing with many other countries, all of whom want to make a deal with the United States. Like with South Korea, we are bringing up other subjects that are not covered by Trade and Tariffs, and getting them negotiated also. “ONE STOP SHOPPING” is a beautiful and efficient process!!! China also wants to make a deal, badly, but they don’t know how to get it started. We are waiting for their call. It will happen! GOD BLESS THE USA.

I was surprised to hear he was waiting on their call lol

Betting markets have ~70% chance at the moment of it happening before July:
https://polymarket.com/event/trump-imposes-100-tariff-on-china-before-july?tid=1744129654813

I would assume that it's a tomorrow or probably backing down thing, so most of that probability is associated with tomorrow.

SPXS - excellent timing, I sold my most of my smaller 3x TNA and FNGA positions yesterday but should've sold them all this morning it looks like

Can you/team Trump enlighten us on the administration's strategy here?

You seem to have gone from tariff fan, TSLA fan, to "no bottom yet" pretty fast.

I understand your approach, but admittedly I am astounded there's no trade deal with at least one country of significance over the weekend here. I fully expected the Trump administration to throw the market a bone here. They've got until tomorrow I guess.

What are your views on max pain here?

Max pain in my mind is slow tariff unwind + recession + AI is a bubble + fed doesn't cut rates very fast + cyclical adjusted PE is high. I could easily see another 20% down or more in that scenario.

Or are you just playing this as purely a short-term bounce?

Consumer spending is the key in my mind. Tariff policy is subject to whims, but I wonder if the genie was unintentionally let out of the bottle here and you can't easily put it back in due to people slowing down their spending.

In addition to uncertainty causing people to potentially slow spending, I’ve been wondering about:
-Biden voters/Democrat voters are generally higher income than they’ve been in the past and I wonder about their effect. Out of frustration/partisanship are they going to slow spending? A similar thing happens with Republicans when they say the economy sucks until a Republican is in office. But Republicans have less disposable income now that lower class voters are a higher proportion of their base.
Some data: https://www.ft.com/content/6de668c7-64e9-4196-b2c5-9ceca966fe3f

-Wealth effect, which is discussed often, where the stock market going down affects upper class spending. This group has really kept consumer spending up in recent years. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-11/us-consumer-spending-is-increasingly-driven-by-richer-households

-Consumer confidence numbers have been garbage last couple of months

-A smaller effect but I’m fairly confident that international tourism to the US is going to be way down.

Overall, my opinion (to be taken with a grain of salt and could be total garbage) is that a year out I'd be on deflation being more likely than inflation at this point due to consumer spending effects, etc., even with tariffs in place, which would mean we end up potentially back at ZIRP and BTFD once that starts.

My thoughts on your question:
Jim Lahey style

MITQ - full disclosure that I bailed at 0.73 this morning. I'll be surprised if it holds up with today's selling but who knows

Trump brought out a tariff poster board leading to unreal AH action. Way up and now down. Who knows where we end up.

Who else is watching?

MITQ - thanks, I guess they are pumping themselves up at CinemaCon. In any case, sold some more AH at 0.82. Still sitting on around 40% of what I initially bought. Want to see if they really decide to launch it.

MITQ- and FWIW some of my sell orders hit AH. Still sitting on 2/3 of my initial position

MITQ - yeah I'm just hanging around since adding shares in the low 0.50s. Price action looks somewhat interesting last couple of days. I'm looking for high 60s or into the 70s before letting any go, but that depends on the price action too. Agree that there's been limited action on the low float front lately.

Market beatings will continue until you buy a Tesla:
White House Telsa Auto Mall

MNDO - sold most today at 1.97, I thought it would've bounced back stronger by now and not loving the overall market action.

BRLT - in at 1.43 AH; I thought earnings were pretty decent considering the bloodbath that is the jewelry sector. I think it gets a pop given how beat down it is. all IMO

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/03/12/3041749/0/en/Brilliant-Earth-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-2024-Results.html

MNDO - agree, that press release was not pretty. I thought it was particularly grim that they mentioned revenues (as well as profitability) given that the just acquired a company.

MNDO - bought a bit for a trade at 1.88 Seemingly dropping on no news and ex dividend on March 25

MITQ - conference call was overall positive, mainly focused on how movie industry outlook is better than last year with the strikes behind them. Also reiterated from last several calls that the theaters have to replace their infrastructure at some point soon and that should benefit MITQ.

I also own DBO.TO and that one has had a couple strong quarters now so I think movie industry is decent at the moment.

I do think the consumer is getting stretched pretty thin though and that's the main risk from a macro fundamentals perspective. The other obvious risk is that the company actually has to prove they can make money.

MITQ - rebuying in the mid to low 50s here after selling most on that spike over 1 a while back. Trading around cash value

Too busy with your love affair of TSLA/Elon to have any common economic sense?

Explain this, Trump was advocating for the Keystone XL pipeline during his 1st presidency. Now he slaps 10% tariffs on that same oil. Looks just as senile as the last president.

Agree, Colombia did no one any favors here.

I'm also surprised by how fast the Canadian public is getting closer to a "screw it, who cares, bring on a horrible recession" mood, which could really embolden the response by the Canadian federal government (the current party is about to lose power too, and that further compounds the whole "who cares" attitude).

Hoping that cooler heads will prevail at some point, but I've pretty much given up on having expectations in the Trump era. I never would've thought oil tariffs would be on the table, considering the refineries in Texas were set up to receive the Canadian crude blend, but here we are...

happy tariff day everyone.
May all your purchases and crap be more expensive. 🍷
-love, a dual citizen

SGMA - small flyer at 1.51 today, still expecting bad financials but it's at 15 year lows and likely a lot of tax loss selling here...

SGMA - NT-10Q. Been eyeing this one for an entry/rebound, but it looks like the 1s might be in play now based on this from the filing (revenues last quarter were ~$85M):

The Company estimates that its results from operations for fiscal quarter ended October 31, 2024, will reflect the following changes as compared to the fiscal quarter ended October 31, 2023: For the fiscal quarter ended October 31, 2024, the Company expects to report a decrease in revenues of approximately $24 million, to $75 million, as compared to $99 million for fiscal quarter ended October 31, 2023.

WSJ article - thanks for sharing. I hadn't seen the valuation gap between US and foreign stocks plotted like that in a while.

OT Overall markets: market getting creepy to anyone else?

I look at the stuff in my portfolio and it feels like it's lower quality and more expensive valuation-wise than it's almost ever been (Nov 2022 was comparable in some ways). I'm sitting on a lot of cash (not as much as SSKILLZ mind you, but it's a lot) and I know researcher and others have highlighted all the low PE stuff out there that should be attractive from a valuation perspective. And to be clear, I'm still quite long overall and riding this crap up.

However, hard to not think about:
-Shiller PE of SP500 sitting at highest level since 1999/2000 (which was the highest ever)
-PE of SP500 sitting at ~31, which usually isn't this high outside of recessions
-SP500 dividend yield at a near record low
-stock market heavily weighted in a small number of stocks (primarily big tech, yes it's been like this forever, but makes you wonder)

I know these aren't new concerns, but it really feels like markets are pushing the envelope here. The "new paradigm" phase of a bull market comes to mind.

The best justification I have for these valuations to continue is that the stock market has become a key medium for gambling/casino types which has altered the median PE/valuation of all stocks compared to historical values. Access to trading/stocks has certainly increased over time. Not sure I buy my own crap there though.

TMG.V - I still watch it but sold the last of my shares in the 0.30 CAD range back in April. From loosely following it the last 6 months, it seems like the excitement of their PRs haven't matched the financial results, so market seems to have a "prove it" mentality towards them.

I'd be more interested in the mid teens CAD, but not sure it gets there. Backlash against green energy from US election may hit them some too

CEAD - I've owned a tiny position since 2022 and have been hanging around. I'm still holding today because this news could be the trigger for it to potentially moonshot (a lot of the merger/acquisition plays have been having huge runs). The float is hilariously small and it could get absolutely launched. BBGI is another one with a super small float.

edit: oh and I added more this morning as well

OT: What platform to track press releases/SEC filings?

Wondering what service everyone uses for breaking/up to date press releases/SEC filings for their tickers? Yahoo is inadequate. I checked TradingView and it doesn't have all the press releases. Looks like there's a pile of overpriced crap and beta crap too. Maybe I'm missing something?

CEO.CA in Canada is great, but having trouble finding equivalent service at the same price in US.

SRTS - fantastic DD, ty

OMIC - buying $50 bills for $10 a piece given the cash on the balance sheet. Just have to make sure they can shut down the whole operation and stop the cash burn.

MITQ - I'm with you, got some at 0.53 yesterday. Not long since they pumped it to $1+. Were you selling in the low .60s this morning?

CSTL - I have same questions as hweb, did anyone listen to CC to see if they said they'd maintain this level of profitability and if they are sandbagging guidance?

AP - there was another PR on Tuesday PM (basically about orders and backlog). On that PR, it spiked to the 1.70s AH on Tuesday and I sold in the 1.50s, then I rebought yesterday afternoon. If they can string together some .05 - 0.10 quarters, it's got room to run and they may improve on that EPS in the latter half of the year with the new equipment they have running now (provided other issues don't pop up, which they have a tendency to do with this stock).

Certainly some drawbacks in my opinion, as I mentioned in the original post.

SWAG - finally got a new auditor, trades at close to cash value (if the numbers are legit). I own some in the low 1s.

Selloff over the last 2 months or so may be due to their previous auditor being closed down by the SEC (BF Borgers). I have no reason to think that the company isn't legitimate, although that auditor has been involved with a pile of crap companies. Stocks that weren't dilution machines with the same auditor include:
AREC
IHT
NTWK

None of these are inspiring companies, but those 3 seem legitimate at least.

In any case, if the cash is there and the company actually has positive earnings of a couple of cents every quarter or so, then I think it's a good risk/reward down here. Q1 may suck though and I'm unimpressed by how long it took them to get a new auditor and the associated delay with the Q1 release.

AP - took a small flyer at 0.81 here. Institution(s) likely unloading down here.

Financials are a mess and have been a mess for a while. Worth noting:
-new equipment/upgrades coming online soon that should increase efficiency
-asbestos liability is tricky to assess (VLN.TO has a similar issue and I'm trying to use that as a comparison point)
-company says liquidity isn't a problem for the next while
-conference call for Q1 2024 was pretty similar to Q4 2023 and now they decide to sell it off?
-there was a one-time impact of an incident at one of their plants in Q1
-book value is certainly there

Very curious to see how low this one goes before bouncing, as I don't think bankruptcy is imminent, but could be wrong.

GNSS - you still hanging around this one? I traded it a couple of times after that big contract announcement.

TSRI - to be acquired for 13.40/share.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240515530127/en

congrats to anyone holding, I've only got a small position.

RPHM - watching this one now too, thanks

Was all out of ELYM by ~8.50 before it ran to 11. No idea who buys this stuff after it's run so much.

I think I like these a bit better than RPHM at the moment (not sure if you had any thoughts on these):
IKNA - initiated position in the low 1.30s
TSBX - reloaded around 2.70.
BOLT - intriguing, but no position

Still holding a bit of SNSE, full position of OMIC, and CMRX

I've had my best year in the biocrap sector yet, but not sure what's next. There's still tons below cash value. I remember back in the late 2010s when there were only a few that traded below cash, then 2022 hit and there were more than ever below cash. There's less now than in 2022, but still plenty to choose from.

PPIH - I've been adding in the low $7s, weakness is interesting here (maybe Middle East related). The YoY bottom line comp is also tough for this coming quarter.