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"punkle, next time say so earlier if you see such a thing , tia"
AD, not sure I understand your request. Are you asking me to say when I think the market is shaping up to be strong?
The futures were telling the story all night and I have always thought the Iraqi elections would be fine despite the administration building a little FUD into the equation so they could easily undercommit and overdeliver.
Joe, I believe this morning there was enough good news to offset the light homebuilders report. Specifically, the Chicago PMI came out at the same time and was higher than expectations. Personal Income and Spending were good earlier in the morning and of course the relatively successful Iraqi elections with decent voter turnout was the initial impetus for the rise in futures.
While there is a backdrop of big uncertainties such as The Deficit, Social Security, Oil Prices, etc. I think today was shaping up to be pretty strong before trading started.
Have a few of these left in my cellar speaking of Claret. Probably the best US producer of the stuff is Pride - all you French afficionados should give Pride a whirl...
Parker loves Pride as you see below...
1995 Pride Mountain Vineyards Reserve Claret
Pride Mountain Vineyards
Napa, North Coast, California, USA
Proprietary Blend (a dry red table wine)
Source Reviewer Rating Maturity Estimated
Cost
Wine Advocate #118 (Aug 1998) Robert Parker 96 points Drink 2000-2015 $70.00
The fabulous 1995 Claret Reserve (a blend of 64% Cabernet Sauvignon, 33% Merlot, and 3% Petit Verdot) offers an opaque ruby/purple color, and a classic creme de cassis nose intermixed with toasty new oak and minerals. Full-bodied, with superb texture, dense, massively rich flavors, and a 40+ second finish, this is a gorgeously made, Bordeaux-styled wine with dazzling levels of fruit and extract. Anticipated maturity: 2000-2015. Shame on me for underestimating this beauty!
This is a limited production offering from Pride Mountain Vineyards.
Tel. (707) 963-4949; Fax (707) 963-6039
From the March 25th Reggie White speech:
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He then explained that God had created different races for different reasons. Blacks, he said, are gifted at worship and celebration, while whites are good at organization. "Hispanics were gifted in family structure, and you can see a Hispanic person, and they can put 20, 30 people in one home," he said, adding that the Japanese and other Asians are inventive and "can turn a television into a watch."
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I'm glad there are guys like Reggie White out there to just "bottom line it" for the rest of us who were confused about God's master plan for the races.
Reggie was a simple man, a very simple man.
MLSOFT, while I do not know too many "born agains," there seems to be one constant in the ones I know: they have a very dark past. Alcoholism, drug addiction, and infidelity are constant themes before they decided to "find God" again. Some seem to stay the course with their new found hope and others eventually revert to old habits.
They generally are not very social people and seem to be one step away from going postal - yet they are always looking for more folks to join their cause.
I'm sure my experiences are the minority but they are what they are.
Thanks for the response Bear. Seems the market wants to consolidate some here due to the recent runup. If the market hadn't ran so far so fast today would be a 2% kind of day but I'm not ready to take profits with the expectation of a major pullback after this news. If anything, I think maybe a pause before an assault on 2200 or so and then it's time to move up stops. This news still has some more oomph in it.
Bear, that jobs report was simply enormous - just blew the most ambitious expectations out of the water. I have a hard time seeing the market "correct" any time soon with that report and knowing you follow these reports closely, wondering what you made of it.
What are your thoughts on the report and the effect on the market from here, if any?
Thanks.
Thanks Wecus. So if I read the roadmap correctly are we saying after this new "pullback info" to 1940 at the most, we reach around 2275 by January, 2005 and then there is zero visibility from there?
What does the map show for the next 6 months or so? Are we still predicting around 2200 or so before a major swoon? Not sure where the updated map is these days. Thanks.
Those were not simple explosive, these were superexplosive used in nuclear devices to cause subcritical masses to go critical. You blow 380 tons of these and you have a small earthquake....
Thanks Zeev. Is a "small earthquake" something that the country could absorb or are you saying under no circumstances is blowing that 380 tons feasible? I am not challenging your statement and have no intelligence in this area. I'm just trying to understand if you think it was still possible and should or shouldn't have been done anyway?
Thanks.
OT: Non-partisan question: If we have other priorities that consume our limited manpower and we cannot afford to guard the munitions, why don't we just destroy them?
Is there a good reason why we didn't just destroy that whole munitions store to make sure it didn't get in the hands of the enemy?
Do you think we hit some resistance here at 1965 and then resume the march to 2000? If we can take October high of 1971 we should be in good shape but we're definitely hitting some resistance here.
I get nervous when Zeev, Bearmove, and Justa are all in complete agreement that we are going down.
They didn't really miss on revenue $2.2B vs expectations of $2.23B. I think a miss was built into the stock because everyone in software was missing. The only weak part of the report was application software vs. database software license revenue.
ORCL decent earnings in a sea of software misses. Nice!
ORCL and SAP are very strong in the ERP space and ORCL database continues to get better. PSFT buy could make for the Coke and Pepsi everyone's been waiting for.
SP 200 SMA at around 1112 and we're currently at 1115. Nasdaq 50 day at 1870. If we can take both of those with gusto we could set a short term floor for some upside.
Intel mid-q after the close and non-farm payrolls tomorrow will have an effect. Expectations are somewhat muted for both reports so could get some fireworks either way if they surprise.
Then why do you say HPQ threw a monkey wrench into the works today if you expected a gap up? If Da Boyz wanted to take it up anyway, why didn't they?
No problem if this is just a one off but trying to see why HPQ is a monkey wrench instead of an excuse to do what it was going to do anyway or if the turnips are just off today that's understandable as well.
Zeev, when things are going our way, you say the days events have no effect on the market and they just give the market an excuse to do what it's going to do anyway.
Why in the last couple of weeks do the days events now seem to have an effect greater than the usual "noise?"
2390 here we come?
This is the same link that was sent to me. By the looks of the markets the rumor is definitely unconfirmed. It should be resolved one way or the other later today or at the latest tomorrow.
Alleged Al-Zarqawi capture may be inspiring some of this move today as well. If this is confirmed expect a patriot rally of some measure to continue as this is the guy who allegedly is behind all the beheadings.
The display was bad. I had a "spare parts" computer lying around and plugged the new display in and it worked so I'm back to normal. Thanks to everyone for their ideas.
I think it might be display because I get the 1/4" thick horizontal line on the bottom third of the screen even when I'm booting up PRIOR to getting into windows.
Any know how I can tell if it's the display itself, or the display chip on the motherboard or a software or configuration problem?
Thanks.
Lostcowboy, thank you for your suggestion as well. I went into the advanced settings and played around with all the options and nothing changes.
If you have any other thoughts they are appreciated. If not, thanks for your suggestions anyway!
Thanks for the suggestion Ruelit. My cursor doesn't change when I get to the edge of the screen. When I get to the edge and keep moving the cursor, the screen actually scrolls from left to right. I'm not missing any of the screen so can actually do all my work. It's just that the right 3 inches or so of the actual notebook monitor is black and the part of the screen that SHOULD be showing there is actually wrapped up at the bottom of the screeen.
Any other thoughts? Thanks.
Windows 98 Display problem:
I'd appreciate any assistance with the following. I have a SONY notebook with Windows 98 loaded. It has 320Meg of RAM and has been relatively error-free. Yesterday, I had a lot of windows open and was moving very fast. I must have done something to effect my screen display because my display area seems to have shrunk by about 3 inches on the RIGHT SIDE OF THE SCREEN AND THAT AREA IS NOW BLACK. So I now have a split screen with a 1/4" wide horizontal line in the bottom third of the display and that black area on the right. Usually when something messes up with the screen I just go into Control Panel / Display / and change from 1024 X 768 to 800 X 600, hit apply, and then change back and the problem goes away. That solution isn't helping here.
Does anyone have any ideas? Thanks much.
CAH getting whacked. I know this was a favorite of yours in Healthcare. Do you think it's overdone or "broken" now?
I think the price points of these products may come down so much that the multiples of SNDK, LEXR, and OVTI may not be able to be justified as top-line revenue slows, even if they continue to be the leaders in their respective categories. The "company you keep" scenario comes into play after LEXR significantly reduced their top-line. That scares me and I don't want to take the risk that it rubs off on SNDK.
Yes, you have been saying these stocks have been "broken" for a while now. I agree and think we'll have nothing but DCBs for a while - too much damage.
Should probably exit SNDK as well. Maybe even OVTI?
OVTI, SNDK, and LEXR getting some bids here in a fairly flat market. Could be the digital camera plays may have a rebound.
From a friend somewhat familiar with the situation (Iran seizing British boats):
This is kind of a big deal. Iran has always claimed
more territorial waters than international law
dictates. It amounts to about an extra 3 miles (15
vs. the normal 12 miles off shore). No one except
Iran acknowledges this, and we (the US) traditionally
"push their buttons" over it. While I was over there,
about once a month we would fly into their "claimed
territory" just to thumb our nose at them. One
evening we were flying around and we noticed an
Iranian warship following us around on our FLIR. Upon
closer inspection, we saw them take a tarp off their
anti-aircraft guns...we decided to stop pushing their
buttons at that point.
SNDK, LEXR, OVTI. Zeev, do you think these 3 are dead for a while or could be worth playing at some level during the next rally?
NAS HOD - they could close us above 2000 today or maybe just give us the tease and then come back down for your red close.
Zeev, I just realized after being on this board for a couple years that I have never seen anyone ask or have never seen you mention your annual return on your capital. While this may be "out of bounds" I am hoping your open personality will freely answer the question. After all, while I know first hand it is very difficult to duplicate your trading style, it would be nice to know how much all this hard work pays off.
As I also know you are quite literal, I will try to put some parameters around the question. Assuming your total liquid assets (defined as things like cash or assets, such as checking/savings accounts, stocks/bonds, that are immediately convertible to cash) are $1 Million (I would guess the number is a lot higher but for argument's sake let's use $1 Million), what has been your average return for let's say the last 5 years? Also, is that percentage return much higher in bull years than bear years as I know you don't short?
I'm not looking for the exact number from your tax returns but rough ideas on how you fared big picture wise using your approach to investing.
Sometimes, I imagine the numbers are staggering along the lines of 40 - 50% a year but other times I would think you may just beat the S&P 500 on a regular basis but not by much. Either way, I bet your results are somewhat consistent over the years.
Thanks.
Zeev, I just realized after being on this board for a couple years that I have never seen anyone ask or have never seen you mention your annual return on your capital. While this may be "out of bounds" I am hoping your open personality will freely answer the question. After all, while I know first hand it is very difficult to duplicate your trading style, it would be nice to know how much all this hard work pays off.
As I also know you are quite literal, I will try to put some parameters around the question. Assuming your total liquid assets (defined as things like cash or assets, such as checking/savings accounts, stocks/bonds, that are immediately convertible to cash) are $1 Million (I would guess the number is a lot higher but for argument's sake let's use $1 Million), what has been your average return for let's say the last 5 years? Also, is that percentage return much higher in bull years than bear years as I know you don't short?
I'm not looking for the exact number from your tax returns but rough ideas on how you fared big picture wise using your approach to investing.
Sometimes, I imagine the numbers are staggering along the lines of 40 - 50% a year but other times I would think you may just beat the S&P 500 on a regular basis but not by much. Either way, I bet your results are somewhat consistent over the years.
Thanks.
It will be very big here because it 1) has become very controversial and 2) an election year.
See Passions of the Christ - nobody thought that would be so big until it became the topic of every talk show and news station a few months prior to being released.
You want to make money in movies today, make something very, very controversial and humans become compelled to spend their $9 or $10 to see it, even if they leave and say they hated it.
Remember when The Titanic set all those records? Different times in the movie cycle I guess.
1941 should provide some resistance for a bit but if we get past there, should be smooth sailing for a little while.
Isn't he a shoe salesman? Does he make market calls as well?
Close on the what?
Actually your indicator seems to have been pretty good lately. Maybe this means we are turning?