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Ike,
I agree with what you're saying, but with soft lock those who are gathering up the data, calculating, etc can do nearly all their work under conditions of a soft lock. When the last of what they need is in, it will be called a hard lock, but it won't take them a great deal of time to incorporate the few additional items that were missing.
What I'm suggesting is that if soft lock was established a few days after it was first mentioned by the company, most of the data could be processed by now. If tomorrow they announce data lock, the missing information can be incorporated in a few days, it would then be handed to the company and they'd be unblinded, and it would go through the process as you described it.
If data lock should occur tomorrow, I don't know that they couldn't get TLD prepared by shortly after July 4th, still early July, and on time.
Gary
I believe that Gary was being honest in estimating $1 or more by the end of the year, but the numbers he gave us today don't validate it. I suspect that as we learn more we'll find that that figure wasn't based on all income the company may earn, perhaps it's the sum of what they are under contract today. I certainly don't know this, but believe they could do much better than that, especially if they deliver a substantial portion of the U.K. agreement.
A standard shipping container is 8 ft wide by 8 ft tall by 20 ft long, I don't know how many units can be put in a single shipping container, but I believe it's substantial. If they can stack the units, I would think that 25 or more units could go in a single freight container. If that's the case, they could target shipping one container a month on the U.K. contract. Production is building up, perhaps in a few months it could be two such containers, as well as what's needed for the two to three hospitals we're averaging here in the U.S. I don't know, but I would suspect that if these are all leased, the payment doesn't occur until a unit is up and running.
On leased units, we really don't know how much money is paid to us, to our distributor, or for that matter to the organization in the U.K. who're also responsible for sales in other European countries. I don't know that we'll ever get the precise figures, but I do know we'll be making money, and so will our distributors.
Gary
I can agree that a company growing as fast as this one is could get a P/E that's greater than 30. I used 30 as that's normally the upper limit used for most profit making companies. I do believe that Gary believes he'll outperform his figures, the question is, how much.
If we doubled his $4 million to $8 and assumed our share count went to 550 million, we're looking at not quite $.015 a share. A P/E of 50 gives us $.75, at 67 we're just over $1, certainly in the realm of possibilities.
I do believe that to achieve the $2 minimum threshold for the Nasdaq, we'd need something into double digit millions in earnings. Certainly not impossible, but dramatically above Gary's estimate if he doesn't restate that when he said $4 million it was for just equipment sales, or just fluid sales, or it completely disregarded U.K. revenue. If in fact this were clarified, our overall earnings estimate would be corrected to whatever he indicated.
Frankly I believe we'll have a much better picture when second quarter results come in, and I hope that it's timely, which would be early August. For now, let's get the two outstanding reports behind us.
One thing is certain, the stock price was punished for a number which reasonably equates to a $.21 share price with a P/E of 30. How many people would love it if their stock portfolio went up four times in half a year. I purchased for just under $.007 on December 31st, that would be a 30 times gain on my initial investment in the year, not too shabby. Of course I've since doubled up on those shares, so my average is substantially higher, but it would still be a huge gain.
Gary
I believe that what's in the data will largely determine the offering price, and of course there will probably be some negotiations. I think the BLA would come together faster if a BP assisted with it's development. Certainly the BLA takes a lot of work, but if you were considering partnering with NWBO based on what you've seen, wouldn't you want to be involved with it's development.
Something we all need to understand is that a potential partner, under confidentiality, can see everything, not just what's stated in the TLD statement. While I believe there is at least a reasonable chance that the full trial data could be presented for peer review before the BLA submission, under confidentiality potential partners can be reviewing it for months. Note: The "S" after partner was intentional, more than one company my very possibly file confidentiality agreements with NWBO, while Merck may have the inside track, it would be great to get into a bidding war.
As a shareholder, I don't believe we'd be told that they're speaking with potential partners, essentially all we would get is an announcement that it occurred. I do know in some companies we were told that confidentiality agreements were in place, that may be required by the SEC, I don't know that there are any time limitations on such agreements, if Merck had one in the past, it may still be valid.
Gary
Ike,
I believe that if they did soft lock weeks ago, the contractor can get everything together much faster than you think if they've already gotten over 90% of the data processed. I doubt if much more than 1% of the data is lacking, so under soft lock nearly everything they're contracted to do could be done except that last little bit, which they could finish on receipt of that data. I cannot see a downside to doing the soft lock, and don't believe the company committed on telling us they've done it.
There is no love lost between LP and shorts, anything that she can do to minimize the time between data lock and TLD limits the time the shorts can play their games.
Gary
Sir P,
While I know they've missed a lot of dates previously, I really don't think they'd slip more than a month on something they predicted just a couple months prior. Certainly I could be wrong, but I have a feeling TLD will still be coming in July, probably mid to late July, unless they update us otherwise by something that's said when they finally issue the quarterly.
Of course if we're advised of a change in the quarterly, then whatever the new guidance is will apply.
Gary
What I was saying was intended to be somewhat in gest, but what if the company hired to consolidate the data was also tasked to prepare one, or even a few ways of presenting TLD that wouldn't be shown to the company until they totally completed their task. If that were the case, and corporate management determined that a statement by the contractor was right, or required only minor changes, it could be issued within days, rather than weeks to prepare the TLD statement.
I certainly don't know that this could be the case, but also don't know that it's not a possibility.
I believe everything is coming together nicely, by the end of July, or early August, we should get second quarter results if it's right on time. I'm not saying it will be, but if TLD is out prior to then, doing so to reiterate the success in the trial could be quite positive. No doubt in a Covid-19 world, they have an excuse for being late, but it would be nice if it isn't taken.
Once we get TLD, the next question will be, what comes first, a BLA or a partnership. My preference would be the partnership as I think the partner can provide substantial support in the creation of the BLA, plus the approval tends to go more smoothly when a BP is associated with it.
Gary
I'd really like to see LP burn the shorts as follows. Having done a soft lock, 99.99% of the data could be gathered in by July 1st, the last piece coming in, and data lock announced after the close on the second.
With all the data in, the consolidators could have their report to the company by the afternoon of the 2nd. Working through the holiday weekend, the company could put together the TLD statement, issuing it before the open on Monday, July 6th, the shorts would be absolutely SOL.
It's a dream scenario, but I know there is no love lost between LP and shorts, so the less time they have to get out of their position, the better.
Frankly, I don't believe the company had to say they'd announce data lock, but once they said it, they must do it. They have not said a thing about announcing soft lock, and DI certainly wouldn't address it in corresponding with him, I believe it's been done some time ago, and I do believe the contractors have nearly all they need, but do await something that's still being determined.
I suspect the short will have an opportunity to get out, but hopefully at current prices, or higher. Hopefully we'll see the first quarter this week, so that's behind us, I do believe it's holding us down, it certainly should be out by the end of June.
Regardless of what's said in the quarterly, shorts will try to poke holes in the company with whatever it says. I would expect some to get rather desperate as TLD approaches as share price grows. We'll not be able to celebrate the fourth of July in the manner we're used to, but the televised Macy's Show is still on, so at least that will celebrate the 4th. I believe we'll be celebrating TLD some time before the end of July, time will tell.
Gary
When he mentioned selling additional share, he clearly indicated that would be considered at much higher prices, which he no doubt believes will be achieved. I don't believe we'll see additional shares issued at under a dime, and perhaps not under a quarter. We'll see. I believe when Gary's had a chance to review what he said, and how we interpreted it, we may get some clarification in the quarterly guidance contained in the first quarter earnings, which are expected next week.
Gary
Evaluate,
You're right on the money, if annual earnings are $4 million, with a fast growing company a P/E of 30 is justified, so $.21 would be roughly the share price, depending on dilutive action, which Gary indicated wouldn't be great.
If we look at it another way, for each million we earn, it should be worth slightly over a nickel in share price.
I believe that Gary was being very conservative in his estimate, I don't know if anything, or how much of the $4 million came from the U.K. agreement. In fact, no one seems certain if he was speaking of $4 million in only equipment sales, and the fluid sales were not being included.
If a nickel in share price is justified by a million in earnings, to make the Nasdaq at $2, which we could probably qualify for, would require earning $40 million, that's ten times what he stated, yet he was quoted as saying the Nasdaq this year was a goal, and previously said he didn't intend to do a reverse split. Clearly, either he was extremely conservative, or misunderstood in his earnings estimate, or he was very overly optimistic in his belief the Nasdaq was possible this year.
I hate to say it, but weeks ago I suggested that he shouldn't do a podcast until after all required financial had been issued. I believe that not having them behind him gagged him in terms of what he could say. Those reports will be out in the next two weeks, but if they're on time the second quarter will be out in roughly six to eight weeks from now, I'd encourage him to do another podcast after it's released, or even better, have a company webcast to discuss quarterly results.
Quarterly webcasts are the sign of a successful company, most Nasdaq companies do them. The cost of doing such a webcast is no doubt higher than appearing on a podcast, but the credibility of doing it may prove very worthwhile in increasing investor interest in the company.
Gary
To my knowledge there is only one poster here who really understands how both the company, and the distributors business plans works, that's DE. Why? Because he's an investor who's becoming a level 3 distributor.
I hope we can hear more from him before he makes the distributorship official, and can no longer post here. Whether that's the case, or not, look at what he's done. First off, he's made what I believe to be a substantial investment in becoming a level 3 distributor. I cannot say how much of his investment has gone to the company, and how much has gone into building the physical distributorship.
From what DE has stated, he'll have an impressive supply of electrostatic sprayers available when they open, I'm uncertain if their large scale production unit will be functional then, but should be shortly. In short, I believe he's gone all in to being one of the biggest distributors of PCTL fluids and products in record time, he recognizes the profit potential, and he's all in as a distributor. Thing is, it doesn't stop there, he also understands the potential of the company, so he's also becoming a major investor in the stock. Clearly he sees the business plan working will for both the company, and it's distributors, it's a Win-Win arrangement.
I'll be very interested in learning more about his electrostatic sprayers, at the price he said he's selling them I believe the demand will be great, and if he's selling them through other distributors as well, the volume he does may be huge. I know of at least a couple places that might be interested, but want to learn more about their capability.
Gary
We're all trying to put words in Gary's mouth, but in reality we don't know much about what the company sees, and what the distributor sees in each installation.
We believe that each unit installed in a hospital is leased at roughly $7000 a month, if it came from a distributor, what goes to the distributor, what goes to the company. We don't know. If this were a car, and the distributor were a dealership, as the manufacturer of the car, we'd be paid for the car, and the dealership would be free to lease or sell the car, we'd get nothing more regardless of what they did with the car. We'd make a deal with the dealership that the more they sell, the better the price we'll sell units to them for, but they would pay that price on delivery of the unit.
I'm not suggesting we're treating this like a car dealership, I'm saying I don't know. The opposite of the car model would have the distributor essentially acting as the sales agent, paying nothing for the unit, but servicing the installation and lease by the hospital, and sharing the monthly lease fee in some manner with the company. Unless someone knows for certainty how this works, I don't think anyone know with certainty how the business model works.
In the case of car dealers, I've heard they don't make that much on a car, their greatest earnings are on after sales parts and service. It's said you can often purchase cars for under the invoice price, but we know if dealers sell sufficient cars, they get a discount to the invoice. $7000 a month for a leased car would bring you a very nice car, something with a price tag approaching a million. I don't know what a fair price tag is for our unit, but I don't believe it's that high.
If, for example, ACE is charging $7000 a month, but that include sanitizing services, that would be an entirely different matter. They'd have personnel working 24/7 as well as supplying all the salt, etc for the unit. To me, that would be too low a price, but I don't fully understand exactly how this is being done.
DE certainly understands much more about the business model, perhaps before he can no longer address us he'll clarify how it works. Regardless of precisely how it works, I believe it is lucrative to both the company, and the distributor, if it weren't we couldn't be adding distributors. The thing is, it may be more lucrative to the distributor than the company in the near term, but as distribution grows, the company will be making a fortune on the increasing volume. Time will tell.
Gary
No Namtae, if it had been full of BS, we'd be trading for over a dime. I believe it was a very conservative snapshot of reality, and something he's confident that he can exceed. It was less than he's indicated he'd deliver in the past, and I expect him to deliver that, and probably much more, but that will come in future quarters, and in future podcasts when he can update what he's saying.
I believe he overstated what he said in the past, when he said starting in July, month to month would be up 40%, that's a practically impossible figure to meet. I think he realized he over promised previously, so this time he tempered down expectations, and he will over deliver.
Gary
Sorry Snow, I shouldn't have used cents after the $.004, but if that were the earnings per share, at a P/E of 10 we'd be at $.04, at a P/E of 30 we'd be $.12. I didn't hear Gary say earnings of $.004 cents a share, I believe someone calculated that based on the O/S, and may have been somewhat high, based on the O/S. Regardless, I believe Gary was being very conservative in his estimates, and that we'll overperform, especially once the U.K. figures come in.
Even if we're installing equipment in some of the largest hospitals in the world, those needing 3, 4, even 5 units, if we're building 25 units a month, we're not installing nearly what we're producing. I've got to believe that many of the others are going to the U.K.
I certainly don't know, but I would suspect that if I were shipping virtually hundreds of units, I'd do so by filling freight containers, and putting them aboard a ship headed to the U.K. I would suspect that one freight container could hold perhaps 100 or more units. If this is the case, they'll be manufacturing for months before the first container is shipped. To me, this makes far more sense than air freighting each unit as it's built, unless the U.K. is paying a premium to have them shipped in that manner.
I really liked what Gary said about expansion, partially paid for from what they're earning, part on loans they're negotiating, and yes, some dilution when the stock's at higher prices. I believe he knows that the news that will be coming will generate those higher prices, but he also knows the SEC frowns on hype, so he'll deliver the news rather than give us flowery estimates that fail to come to pass.
It's very hard to say just what Gary meant with the $4 million statement. It's certainly enough to justify a higher share price, but if he meant that at the end of they year all debt would be paid off, and we'd have $4 million in the bank it would represent substantially more. While I doubt we'll be debt free by the end of the year, especially if he's taking on additional debt, anything is possible as earnings grow dramatically on delivery of a lot of equipment to the U.K. If in fact the company is going to fill shipping containers and sending say 100 units per container, the payoff should be substantial, though I'm not certain if we get paid when they arrive in the U.K., or not until they're installed in U.K. based facilities.
Perhaps a month or more ago I questioned if they were going to be building the units in the U.K., that question was answered, they're not, so virtually hundreds, perhaps over 1000 units will be needed to just fulfill the U.K. needs. I would suspect that any lenders Gary is speaking with have access to the orders from the U.K. that the company is working to fill. The banks would know if the company purely received the order, or if they got some payment up front or not, they'd also know if the U.K. intends to purchase, or lease all these units. If they're purchasing, it will bring in a great deal initially, but only sustained by selling into other parts of Europe not covered by the U.K. contract. If leased, not as much up front, but very sustained payments.
While I still believe this company will be a cash cow, it will take time to recognize that. Even with 2 to 3 hospitals per month here in the U.S. that Gary said we'd be adding, without knowing how many units per hospital, it's very possible that by the end of the year somewhere between 35 and 50 U.S. hospitals may have our units, and that may represent something between 60 and 100 leased units here in the U.S. as I gather leases are being used in hospitals in the U.S.
What I didn't hear in Gary's presentation was predictions of growth, like the 40% per month he previously stated would occur beginning in July, I don't think he really thought out that figure when he gave it, 40% growth in a year is great for most companies, month over month is nearly impossible to achieve.
We need to realize what we're paid for, and what we're not. If we sell 10,000 gallons of fluid in bulk to ACE, we get paid for it. If ACE bottles it and sells 10,000 one gallon bottles to someone else, they get paid, we get nothing more. If that middleman sells those 10,000 gallons to Costco, CVS, etc, they get paid, ACE doesn't, we don't, we were previously paid for the fluid, which now is on the shelves at Costco, CVS, etc, which we can be happy about, but when we buy a bottle, no money goes back to the company, they were already paid.
It would be a totally different picture if we were selling directly to Costco, CVS, etc, but that's not the case, at least not yet, and I doubt if it will be as we'd be competing with our distributors. I believe that DE intends to go after a great deal of retail business. What I don't know is if he can sell to say Costco, for nationwide distribution, or if he's geographically limited. The company would be paid regardless, I just don't know how free each distributor, so of which make their own product, are in terms of the area they may sell and service in.
I believe that where we are today, perhaps 1% of the general population has heard of HOCL, I believe in perhaps 3 years over 50% of the population will have at least heard about it, and perhaps 20% will be routinely using it around their homes and/or workplaces. It may not sound like it, but that would be tremendous growth.
Gary
After listening to the podcast, I believe that Gary is being very conservative in his figures, but overall what he's saying is positive. As others have mentioned, the U.K. earnings don't seem to be a part of the discussion, and I gather all the equipment for there is being made here, so once delivered and installed I believe that will be bringing in substantial revenue.
As I previously indicated, if everything only equated to earning $.004 cents a share it still should justify a $.12 price based on a P/E of 30. While I still believe we'll be much better than that, all of us would have roughly tripled or more our money if only that came to pass.
I believe as we go through the year the numbers will grow, but we don't want trouble with the SEC, so our CEO isn't claiming so much as to get into that sort of trouble.
I hope DE will communicate some more before signing the paperwork that apparently prevents him from posting more in the future, I had a feeling that would be the case, and he confirmed it. I would like to know his website so that we can see his plans come to fruition in Colorado.
Gary
Hi Greybeard,
I've just gone through all the messages here, haven't heard the podcast, but the one thing I saw in a few posts was earning $.004 per share. If that's what we're currently earning, as I see it, we're underpriced substantially if you consider rapid growth. At a P/E of 10, just $.04 would be right, but with the growth the company is experiencing, I certainly believe we justify a P/E of 30 or more, I.E. $.12.
Is a link to the podcast posted somewhere handy, I'm surprised it didn't turn up as news about the company. I will try to listen later, but perhaps this is a case of reality sucks, but it's really not bad news. They're not building all those units if they can't put them anywhere, so I've got to believe they will be.
I do believe that we may be counting a lot of people selling out products as distributors, when in reality our distributors sold product to them, but they don't have a distribution agreement with the company. We profit from the sale at the distributor level, but not when the retailer who sells it to the general public sells it. The fact that a store, or website is clearly selling something produced by PCTL doesn't make them a distributor. For all I know, CVS or Costco may some day sell our products, they're not a distributor, but I'd like to be the distributor that's selling the product to them. Ultimately the company is paid by that distributor, so we can be happy to find our product on the shelf regardless of which distributor sold it to them.
We still need the financial reports to be available, just to eliminate doubts. I still believe the growth is great, and while the podcast may not have been as positive as in the past, this is a fast growing company, and profits will come with growth.
Gary
The whipple won't work if the tumor is positioned wrong in the pancreas. I've known people who had to substantially shrink the tumor to get it as well, they were successful in doing that. Clearly being eligible for a whipple gives you a much better shot at a longer life, but the attitude of the gentleman I was speaking with had kept him alive for years. I doubt if he'd have lived 2 years on the SOC alone.
If I were diagnosed today, I would certainly be appealing to the company for DCVax-Direct on a right to try, or compassionate use basis as soon as they were making it again. I don't believe any is being made while they're between trials. I hope they initiate a trial once they have TLD and a much higher share price, but suspect they'll want funding from a partnership before they do it. Of course if I did have the whipple, I'd hope to use the tumor to make DCVax-L to continue to fight it with the vaccine.
If the whipple removes all visible cancer, DCVax-L may handle any mets that fail to be found, but my reason for wanting Direct before the surgery is the belief that the mets can have the vaccine in them, and die off after the surgery is done. It's the mets that make pancreatic cancer so deadly, that, and the fact that it's often well advanced before it's ever diagnosed.
Gary
Ever think about what just 10K shares might be worth some day. While I have well over that, I'm not into millions, and I don't think I'll need anywhere close to a million shares to have a $1 million position in the stock. I'm serious about believing $1 is in reach this year, and I don't doubt that Gary is being truthful about thinking we could reach the Nasdaq.
$4 a share is the normal threshold for achieving the Nasdaq, but I believe it can be done at $2 with the right combination of things happening. Regardless if it's $2, or $4, if we reach the Nasdaq this year or next, we won't stop there.
I believe in 5 years one of two things will have happened, one would be a double digit share price, the other would be the company being bought out for at, or just under double digit billions. Either way, shareholders with as few as 10K shares have accounts that are into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. All with significantly more than that, who stay with it, will be millionaires several times over.
It would be nice to meet a lot of PCTL investors in a few years. Other companies I've invested in had investors who proposed Vegas or Reno for such a meeting. I'd like to see us take it up a level and just higher one of the nicer cruise ships and spend a few weeks together, we can choose where we'd like to cruise, money won't be an issue.
Gary
Survivor,
Many years ago I attended a pancreatic cancer meeting as I had a stock that had a drug they'd be discussing. I had the pleasure of eating with a person who'd been fighting the disease for over 5 years without the whipple procedure. His philosophy was interesting, essentially he'd find an oncologist who believed they could benefit him, when the cancer reared it's ugly head again and the oncologist indicated he knew of nothing more he could do, he'd thank him, and find a new oncologist. He had been through several oncologists, but to look at him he didn't appear sick, though clearly he was. I hope he's still finding oncologists.
I'm a big believer in varying treatments so the cancer doesn't become refractory to what you're hitting it with. Decades ago IMGN had drugs they gave up on, patients became refractory to them quickly, though they were effective for a short while. Perhaps the biggest benefit of the drug was that after taking it, patients were found to not be refractory to the SOC drugs that they'd previously become refractory to. I don't know that life couldn't have been extended indefinitely with using the SOC until you become refractory, than a brief time on IMGN's drug, then back to the SOC.
It would be very awkward to try to gain approval of a drug that worked in that manner, yet it might extend life dramatically. What's unknown is how many times you could repeat the same scenario, and if the duration with the SOC was diminished with each cycle, but if it weren't, patients could potentially live a long life just alternating drugs to avoid becoming refractory to either.
Gary
I believe that if they had put out the quarterly, while making an assumption about the German issue, but said nothing, and put it out on time, little would have been said if they revised the quarterly if the German issue was finally resolved, but it was different from the assumption the made. Of course if their assumption was correct, they'd have nothing to do.
I would also question if they resolved a question with the Germans during the current quarter, if whatever change was needed couldn't be put into the report of the current quarter, even if it reflected on earnings in the past. I'm not an accounting expert, but I believe there are different courses that can be followed to a proper result, and nearly a two month delay in the quarterly isn't the best, even if one month was excused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
None of this has any influence on data lock, but it does influence the share price as the more shorts have to work with, the more effective they can be. I frankly don't think all are short, some may wish to keep the price down so they can occasionally add shares while prices are relatively low while waiting for TLD. Regardless of the reason, anything that creates questions is also something they can use to put down the company and/or its management. Others may have done better than our CEO, some would have done worse, some might have us out of business, I believe we need to dance with the one we came with.
Gary
Out of curiosity, has anyone seen a link to the podcast. If no PR is issued today, many won't listen in live, though the word will get out over time. As I previously indicated, I'll know it's impact when I get up a few hours after it's over, but other on the East Coast, or even in the middle of the country would be inclined to listen in live if they're aware of it and have a link to tune in.
Someone said the company shouldn't get specific about financials not released, and while I agree, I believe they could provide ballpark figures that would give us all an idea of what's happening, without giving out information deemed to be inappropriate by the SEC.
While I'd love to get up tomorrow morning and find we're at new 52 week highs, I'm not expecting that, as I believe it takes time to spread the word of what's happening, and I still believe people are waiting for the financials. The good news is we'll have them all by the first of July, less than two weeks away.
The Fourth of July is going to be like none we've ever seen. I don't even know if the massive displays in New York, etc will be occurring, I know that those I'd usually look forward to are not happening. I believe that they're learning that exposure outdoors isn't nearly the problem that indoors is. I know the Ram's and Charger's will be opening up their new stadium, but it's an indoor stadium here in California. As a kid I attended Ram's games in the Colosseum in crowds that frequently exceeded 104,000. Today it's total attendance has been diminished, but apparently it still would be safer to attend games there than the brand new stadium which should be one of the greatest in the world.
I really don't know why athletic events can't be held with perhaps 1/4 the normal capacity, people wearing masks, and spacing truly maintained. They might have to ticket spectators who moved into closer seating, but if the fans recognize it's for their safety, they can learn to live with the rules. Sports without sports fans is awkward, but much better than no sports at all.
Gary
We know they're producing lots of HOCL, but I don't believe it's possible to say what they're getting for it unless you know how it's being sold. If 10,000 gallons are produced in a day, the price is one thing if it all goes into bulk carriers for sale by one of our distributors, and a very different thing if 10,000 gallon bottles are being filled and sent to retailers. Of course there are many added costs to selling the gallon bottles, but they do sell for much more.
I believe on average we have a mix of sales, and some average price can be determined, but it won't be fixed. What's important is that the demand is increasing dramatically, and we, or our distributors, like DE, are bringing new bulk producing equipment on line all the time.
I believe the other thing that's happen is hospitals being equipped with out units, and once again, between the U.S. and U.K. I believe all that can be produced are accounted for, most I believe our leased, and the demand exceeds the supply, so production is being dramatically ramped up.
Between fluid sales and new equipment production, PCTL is growing dramatically each month. With all of that happening, the company continues to routinely add distributors, and all their businesses are growing. Covid-19 may have dramatically increased the interest in HOCL, but as it goes away, and businesses that closed are reopened, the demand will actually increase as sanitation will be a bigger part of all business post Covid-19.
Gary
In other corporations I've seen revised quarterlies issued to correct problems. I don't understand why the same couldn't be applied here, put out the quarterly with the best possible information in it, but if you're wrong, revise it to reflect what happens.
I believe the problem may be more complex than that, and perhaps the biggest reason that LP took over as CFO. I believe they could risk SEC problems if they drag this into the next quarter, so I'll be very surprised if it's not issued before July 1st.
I certainly think we'll either have data lock by July 1st, or an update, perhaps in the 10-Q on what's happening. I do believe a soft lock has occurred, the contractor is at work, and after the hard lock, they may not need that much time to put everything together. We should learn something in the next two weeks.
Gary
Out of curiosity, how automated is the company when it comes to things like filling gallon bottles of HOCL. It's hard to say how much is being bottled, and how much is being sold in bulk, but I've seen automated processes where bottles essentially were untouched by human hands. I don't believe that is yet the things are being done.
If I'm correct about that, over time, substantial money should be invested in making it that sort of process, as demand will be there in the future in the same way that demand is there for a variety of bleaches today. Practically every market will have Clorox, Purex, and market brands of bleach in a variety of bottle sizes, I believe most come off totally automated processes.
While I like the idea of employing people, automation certainly proves to be profitable when you are doing substantial volume. Fewer people may be involved in the automated production, but most of them should make greater wages, so it's more of an occupation than a job.
Gary
Ripdog,
While I can understand what you're saying my belief is that many Analysts do much the same thing by lowering their rating from buy to hold when a stock reaches their target. My preference is to reassess the stock when a particular target is reached, if you think the upside potential diminished, fine, sell some, or lower your rating, but if you still view the upside potential as great, raise your target, then reassess when you meet the new target.
Frankly I believe the potential here is so great that you might reassess right up to double digit dollars in a few years. Certainly nothing goes straight up, their will be dips, and if you're a traded, and trading in and out, I'm fine with that. My only point is that if you still believe in the potential, why sell out a substantial part of your position.
I like to play craps. When I'm on a hot roll, have taken a fair amount of money off the table, I sometimes get a premonition that 7 is about to hit. Sometimes I'm right, other times I'm wrong, I rarely act on such premonitions as if I'm wrong, I could make a lot of money if I remain involved. In a hot roll I'll have lots of money on every number, each paying odds as they're all placed bets that I've gradually build up, when I reach that point I'll put some money on the Horn so even crap rolls pay me, only the 7 ends it. I'm much the same in stock, as long as I see the upside being positive. I certainly don't win most times I go to the crap table, but when I do it can make up for several times when I've lost.
I believe that PCTL has set the table, we have money on all the numbers, but we get to ignore all the 7's, the numbers will just keep coming. We just have to wait for it to happen and collect our money.
Gary
Thanks Marzan,
I wish I could say that DCVax-Direct could be of benefit to me, but with a blood based cancer like leukemia you don't have a tumor to inject the vaccine into. That's not to say it couldn't work, perhaps making it and just putting it into the blood could have a benefit, but at this point it's certainly an unknown. In survivor's case their is no doubt that if he had a tumor show, getting some Direct into it would offer potential.
I'm not an expert on the technologies, I don't try to be, but I'm facinated by all that is happening, and as a patient at City of Hope have been amazed at what they do there that's completely unseen by patients. My Dr. heads hematology there and has been involved in T-cell work for ages, but you'd never know if you didn't discuss it with him. The patient I mentioned who had T-cells spiked a fever to 107 on their introduction, so it certainly was dangerous, and something my Dr. doesn't want to put me through, though it's a possibility should I come out of remission.
I believe there are many new and exciting developments in cancer, and in general I believe they'll work with a vaccine. I forget the company that advertises that we don't make anything you use, we make products that make many things you use work better. I think our vaccines will make many therapeutics work better. I think their could be a huge benefit to the use of DCVax-Direct before surgery if it can be given weeks to months before the surgery. My feeling is that if you get it into the mets which can't be see or removed at the time of the surgery, they may be prevented from growing and just die out, whereas without such treatments, mets often result in spreading the cancer, often not detected for many years after the cancer is surgically removed in spite of all the current treatment post surgery.
Perhaps a question that may be looked at in the future is, can DCVax-Direct, or something based on it, be utilized prior to a detectable cancer being found as a vaccine that would prevent it. It's the sort of question that could take decades to prove, as you're treating something you don't know will ever exist, but it's said that most of us have cancers that our bodies eliminate in the normal course of life, and we never learn of them. Boosting our bodies to do more certainly lies within the realm of possibilities. I believe any vaccine intended to lower the likelihood of cancer will be a personalized vaccine, it may not be DCVax-Direct, but there will be similarities.
Gary
Thanks Marzan,
I wish I could say that DCVax-Direct could be of benefit to me, but with a blood based cancer like leukemia you don't have a tumor to inject the vaccine into. That's not to say it couldn't work, perhaps making it and just putting it into the blood could have a benefit, but at this point it's certainly an unknown. In survivor's case their is no doubt that if he had a tumor show, getting some Direct into it would offer potential.
I'm not an expert on the technologies, I don't try to be, but I'm facinated by all that is happening, and as a patient at City of Hope have been amazed at what they do there that's completely unseen by patients. My Dr. heads hematology there and has been involved in T-cell work for ages, but you'd never know if you didn't discuss it with him. The patient I mentioned who had T-cells spiked a fever to 107 on their introduction, so it certainly was dangerous, and something my Dr. doesn't want to put me through, though it's a possibility should I come out of remission.
I believe there are many new and exciting developments in cancer, and in general I believe they'll work with a vaccine. I forget the company that advertises that we don't make anything you use, we make products that make many things you use work better. I think our vaccines will make many therapeutics work better. I think their could be a huge benefit to the use of DCVax-Direct before surgery if it can be given weeks to months before the surgery. My feeling is that if you get it into the mets which can't be see or removed at the time of the surgery, they may be prevented from growing and just die out, whereas without such treatments, mets often result in spreading the cancer, often not detected for many years after the cancer is surgically removed in spite of all the current treatment post surgery.
Tox,
I purely invest for the long term, I don't like the idea of buying and selling on tiny percentage difference in the share price, but that's me. I believe most of those here are looking at the long term potential, but may be willing to trade while maintaining long term involvement.
My fear in trading is being out just when something major that's new is announced just at the point when I'm out. You have to do a lot of successful trades to make up for just one time when you're out at the time some major news comes in. I can't say what the podcast might do Monday morning, but it is possible the low for the day might be pennies higher than Friday's close. If that were the case, a trader out on Friday afternoon would be seriously burned on Monday.
I really wonder what would happen if we could put out the word to everyone who's invested for the long term not to sell for a given time period, a day, a week, or a month. I suspect that if we communicated with enough people, the share price would be up dramatically by the end of whatever the period was. Certainly someone will sell at a higher price, but if a lot of people who normally would stopped doing so, I suspect the price would be up substantially as only short term investors would be doing any trading.
It would be interesting to see what would happen this Monday if all who're looking at this site refused to sell a share for that day. 1000 shares only costs roughly $50, it would be even more interesting if we all agreed to purchase at least 1000 shares on Monday, in fact, if we wanted to send a message, it might be interesting if whatever we purchased, we ended it with say a 9, don't buy 1000 shares, buy 999, or 1009, or 10009, I think we might drive the MM's crazy. I really don't like having odd numbers in my portfolio, so perhaps you do one trade ending in a 9, and the next ending in a 1, so you're back to even.
Gary
Marzan,
I didn't mean they should go all the way to issuing TLD before getting everything, though I suppose it's possible. I was only suggesting that by a soft unblind they could go to work on all they had while continuing to work on getting what's needed for a hard blind. Hopefully by now they're very close to being able to announce hard unblind.
If the company doing the data consolidation began working some weeks ago, they could be close to finishing all they could get. When the remainder is available to them, it may only take a few days to include it, we're 10 days from the end of the month, so it may still be possible to get TLD before July 1st, though it's doubtful.
I'd say the odds are very much in our favor of having TLD before the end of July, I'm certainly willing to wait. Hopefully we'll learn more in a matter of days, I certainly believe the first quarter results will be in before the end of the month, if unblinding hasn't been announced by then, we certainly should get new guidance from the company. If they fail to issue the 10-Q during this quarter, I would think there would be serious SEC concerns.
Gary
Hopefully with NED you'll never need Direct, but it would be nice to know it's there if something does show. I'm hoping Direct will be available in time for my sister who's on experimental chemo's but could certainly get further benefits if it were available.
You've done amazingly well, and with NED hopefully it will continue to the end of your normal life. I feel the same way, each time I go to City of Hope they do a BCR-ABL test and it's been negative for 5 years, they can detect blasts down to .0001% and if they ever see even anything it would mean trouble. I remain on chemo purely to diminish the chance, even though my odds aren't terrible without it.
When I was about a month post stem cells I met a man who was transfused the same day I was, he'd come out of remission, but he had the benefit of using his own stem cells. Three days later he was given his own T-cells modified as cancer killers. While I was going to City of Hope twice a week, he only had to come in every two weeks because with his own cells, rejection wasn't a consideration. I never saw him again, but believe he was doing very well. City of Hope was one of the developers of CAR-T therapy, they create their own drugs there, but get little credit. The genesis of drugs like Herceptin was actually City of Hope, there are many others.
I believe that both DCVax-L and Direct could become mainstays in the treatments of many solid cancers, not that they're curative by themselves, but may be in combination with other therapeutics. Perhaps what's most important is they extend life without adding substantial quality of life issues. I'm a big believer that quality of life should be given greater importance when it comes to drug trials. If I drug fails to extend life beyond the SOC, but makes life more tolerable, it should be approved and allow the patients and Doctors determine what's right for each patient.
My grandmother died of pancreatic cancer, but she was 94 and she choose to not take the chemo of those days to give her additional time, just drugs to make the quality of her life tolerable. Her mind was sharp down to her last day when I visited her. She sounded so good that I was certain I'd see her again, and bring her great grandchildren, I didn't realize that medically the reason they'd have permitted me to bring them was she was so close to death. They hadn't been permitted to visit for many months. I fully supported her decision, I don't know how much the drugs of the day would have mattered, but I know they would have made her life far more painful.
Gary
Cassie,
As I see it there isn't a clock on how long it takes to provide the consolidated to the company after data lock. Let's say for talking purposes that it would take 30 days without a soft lock. But lets say you did a soft lock 25 days ago and now you have the last of the data. Perhaps only 5 or so more days would be needed to complete the job.
I really don't know why so many people don't seem to like the idea of a soft lock, it gets the ball rolling sooner. I believe they've done it, but I can't prove it any more than anyone can prove they haven't. I believe they have something over 90% of what's needed to do data lock, why not let the the data consolidators complete their work on that 90+%, then when what's missing becomes available, it can be handled quickly.
We don't know what they're waiting for, it might all boil down to information needed about a single patient in the trial, whether living or dead, but to be complete, they need that data. I'm not saying this is the case, we don't know, and the company's not going to tell us in that much depth. The shorts could really get caught with their pants down if data lock was called, and a few days later TLD was announced. That sort of scenario is possible if much of the work was done after a soft lock occurred.
I don't know the path the company is choosing, but I don't think it will be that much longer before we'll all be very happy with what we're reading in TLD.
Gary
It was brief, but it also referred me to someone about a personal health question. Perhaps DI is getting tired of answering the same question, but frankly, we all know the answer. I don't believe they're responding to anyone about soft lock, at least IMHO all discussion is of announcing when they have a hard lock, the soft lock may, or may not have occurred, but in my mind it's logical to have done it to shorten the time to TLD.
Gary
I don't know why people view soft lock so negatively, it's a chance to get started before you have absolutely everything you need. In essence, it's shortening the time needed to get to TLD, what's wrong with that.
I may be wrong, but I believe it's happened, I believe the contractor the company hired to consolidate all the trial has gone to work, and when the last needed information comes in, they'll announce hard lock. If the contractor by that time has gathered in perhaps something over 90% of what's needed, they should be able to deal with the remainder in a matter of days. I don't know that late June/early July may still not be in play. I certainly believe that sometime in July is.
I believe that management is still looking to surprise the shorts and their tactics may be aimed at doing just that. I think anyone short at this point is foolish, but based on the posts, some people are. I think the short squeeze will work in the benefit of the rest of us.
Gary
If they truly do the podcast on Monday, I'll admit I was wrong that the 10-K and Q would come first. To get questions about it Gary should confront it up front and indicate their intent, then go on to all the great things the company is doing.
As someone who likes to sleep in here in L.A., I'll know the reaction to the podcast when I check the stock price, I'll probably check what people are saying here before listening for myself. One nice thing about podcasts is that if you have the link, you can listen any time.
I'd love to wake up say an hour into the market and find the price doubled, I believe that's possible, but it may require more than a podcast to do it. I'm looking forward to the financials in the next two weeks, as people have suggested, not because I read them in depth, I don't, but because they're needed to eliminate people's doubts and eliminate foolish claims by those shorting the stock. I do skim the reports, more for news than actual dollar results, and I completely ignore anything warning me about the risks of investing in stocks. I would like to see all the warnings published by the SEC, the reports saying, see SEC XXXXX, and turn the reports into what they once were, positive documents about the company along with current financial figures.
Gary
We conversed this week over email, I had another issue and he put me in touch with others in the company. He clearly said all investors will be told of data lock.
I would hope we get the quarterly this week, and if we don't have data lock by then, I believe we'd at least get some further guidance about it. Of course it's possible that both will be covered in the same release.
Gary
As I see it, each patient in the trial represents slightly under 1/3rd of 1% of the data they're gathering. If data from a single patient was all that was preventing hard lock, under a soft lock over 99% of the data could be consolidated by the contractor.
Like so many others, DI has assured me we'd all be notified of hard lock, but no commitment was made on soft lock. I believe they've done it, and if I'm right, and if data's only lacking from one, or just a few patients, I believe that only a few days should be required from when hard lock is announced, and when the consolidated data is provided to the company, and the TLD statement can be prepared.
I'm not saying this is the case, it's just my belief, but if I'm right, once we get data lock, I believe TLD may come within two weeks, or less.
Gary
Analysts rarely predict targets that are major multiples of the current price. Ask yourself what a fair market cap is for a company that can cure pneumonia in most people. Does anyone not think that will be in billions?
With our current O/S $1 billion in market cap is roughly a $40 share price. How many billions do you believe an effective therapeutic for Covid-19 and other forms of pneumonia. The patent filings for the drug indicate pneumonia as a potential target, at the time Covid-19 was an unknown, but it's the pneumonia the drug is curing, and it will help cure pneumonias caused by other diseases.
I frankly believe a double, and some day even triple digit billion dollar market cap is a possibility in time, but first we need the trial based proof.
Gary
DE,
As I remember what you said about the electrostatic sprayer you're going to be marketing, it had the corporate name on it. If that's the case, are you having it manufactured for the company, and making it available to all other distributors of the companies products.
It's certainly a unit I can think of at least a few people may want, when you have more information about it, I think many of us would like to know about it.
Thanks for all you're doing, I believe you'll be very successful.
Gary
Thanks Egold,
You clarified what I believed, but what's not clear to me is what limitations are placed on distributors. Some of them appear to be trying to sell products nationwide. Others may be geographically limited. I'm not sure if there are limitations, or if it's up to the distributor how far reaching they can be with their products.
Gary
It appears that in the agreement with distributors PCTL is permitting them to promote their own products, and they won't publicize who's doing what, at least they won't unless the distributor agrees to it. I can respect that.
That doesn't prevent us from posting what we know, or learn here, but it explains why the company won't go on the record and promote all who're distributing their product either using the PCTL labeled product, or packaging it themselves.
I would suspect that nearly all distributors who don't produce the HOCL themselves order it in bulk and repackage it. I would think they'd have the option of using their own label, or PCTL's label.
Even if the website can't clearly show all that's going on, over time the earnings will clearly show the growth in the company. It may take a little longer waiting for earnings, but they're coming and by this time next year I believe it's very possible that we'll move the decimal point two places to the right.
We have a number of people here, like Egold, who're excellent at identifying distributors who're using our products, but doing so in their own names. I suspect that in the future it's very possible that a market, drugstore, etc might have more than one product on the shelf that's HOCL being provided by different distributors under different labels that's all being produced with PCTL's process, in some cases it may have been produced by PCTL, whereas in other the distributor may be producing it on equipment from the company. Regardless of how or where it's produced, somehow the company gets paid.
Gary