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Ever think about what just 10K shares might be worth some day. While I have well over that, I'm not into millions, and I don't think I'll need anywhere close to a million shares to have a $1 million position in the stock. I'm serious about believing $1 is in reach this year, and I don't doubt that Gary is being truthful about thinking we could reach the Nasdaq.
$4 a share is the normal threshold for achieving the Nasdaq, but I believe it can be done at $2 with the right combination of things happening. Regardless if it's $2, or $4, if we reach the Nasdaq this year or next, we won't stop there.
I believe in 5 years one of two things will have happened, one would be a double digit share price, the other would be the company being bought out for at, or just under double digit billions. Either way, shareholders with as few as 10K shares have accounts that are into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. All with significantly more than that, who stay with it, will be millionaires several times over.
It would be nice to meet a lot of PCTL investors in a few years. Other companies I've invested in had investors who proposed Vegas or Reno for such a meeting. I'd like to see us take it up a level and just higher one of the nicer cruise ships and spend a few weeks together, we can choose where we'd like to cruise, money won't be an issue.
Gary
Survivor,
Many years ago I attended a pancreatic cancer meeting as I had a stock that had a drug they'd be discussing. I had the pleasure of eating with a person who'd been fighting the disease for over 5 years without the whipple procedure. His philosophy was interesting, essentially he'd find an oncologist who believed they could benefit him, when the cancer reared it's ugly head again and the oncologist indicated he knew of nothing more he could do, he'd thank him, and find a new oncologist. He had been through several oncologists, but to look at him he didn't appear sick, though clearly he was. I hope he's still finding oncologists.
I'm a big believer in varying treatments so the cancer doesn't become refractory to what you're hitting it with. Decades ago IMGN had drugs they gave up on, patients became refractory to them quickly, though they were effective for a short while. Perhaps the biggest benefit of the drug was that after taking it, patients were found to not be refractory to the SOC drugs that they'd previously become refractory to. I don't know that life couldn't have been extended indefinitely with using the SOC until you become refractory, than a brief time on IMGN's drug, then back to the SOC.
It would be very awkward to try to gain approval of a drug that worked in that manner, yet it might extend life dramatically. What's unknown is how many times you could repeat the same scenario, and if the duration with the SOC was diminished with each cycle, but if it weren't, patients could potentially live a long life just alternating drugs to avoid becoming refractory to either.
Gary
I believe that if they had put out the quarterly, while making an assumption about the German issue, but said nothing, and put it out on time, little would have been said if they revised the quarterly if the German issue was finally resolved, but it was different from the assumption the made. Of course if their assumption was correct, they'd have nothing to do.
I would also question if they resolved a question with the Germans during the current quarter, if whatever change was needed couldn't be put into the report of the current quarter, even if it reflected on earnings in the past. I'm not an accounting expert, but I believe there are different courses that can be followed to a proper result, and nearly a two month delay in the quarterly isn't the best, even if one month was excused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
None of this has any influence on data lock, but it does influence the share price as the more shorts have to work with, the more effective they can be. I frankly don't think all are short, some may wish to keep the price down so they can occasionally add shares while prices are relatively low while waiting for TLD. Regardless of the reason, anything that creates questions is also something they can use to put down the company and/or its management. Others may have done better than our CEO, some would have done worse, some might have us out of business, I believe we need to dance with the one we came with.
Gary
Out of curiosity, has anyone seen a link to the podcast. If no PR is issued today, many won't listen in live, though the word will get out over time. As I previously indicated, I'll know it's impact when I get up a few hours after it's over, but other on the East Coast, or even in the middle of the country would be inclined to listen in live if they're aware of it and have a link to tune in.
Someone said the company shouldn't get specific about financials not released, and while I agree, I believe they could provide ballpark figures that would give us all an idea of what's happening, without giving out information deemed to be inappropriate by the SEC.
While I'd love to get up tomorrow morning and find we're at new 52 week highs, I'm not expecting that, as I believe it takes time to spread the word of what's happening, and I still believe people are waiting for the financials. The good news is we'll have them all by the first of July, less than two weeks away.
The Fourth of July is going to be like none we've ever seen. I don't even know if the massive displays in New York, etc will be occurring, I know that those I'd usually look forward to are not happening. I believe that they're learning that exposure outdoors isn't nearly the problem that indoors is. I know the Ram's and Charger's will be opening up their new stadium, but it's an indoor stadium here in California. As a kid I attended Ram's games in the Colosseum in crowds that frequently exceeded 104,000. Today it's total attendance has been diminished, but apparently it still would be safer to attend games there than the brand new stadium which should be one of the greatest in the world.
I really don't know why athletic events can't be held with perhaps 1/4 the normal capacity, people wearing masks, and spacing truly maintained. They might have to ticket spectators who moved into closer seating, but if the fans recognize it's for their safety, they can learn to live with the rules. Sports without sports fans is awkward, but much better than no sports at all.
Gary
We know they're producing lots of HOCL, but I don't believe it's possible to say what they're getting for it unless you know how it's being sold. If 10,000 gallons are produced in a day, the price is one thing if it all goes into bulk carriers for sale by one of our distributors, and a very different thing if 10,000 gallon bottles are being filled and sent to retailers. Of course there are many added costs to selling the gallon bottles, but they do sell for much more.
I believe on average we have a mix of sales, and some average price can be determined, but it won't be fixed. What's important is that the demand is increasing dramatically, and we, or our distributors, like DE, are bringing new bulk producing equipment on line all the time.
I believe the other thing that's happen is hospitals being equipped with out units, and once again, between the U.S. and U.K. I believe all that can be produced are accounted for, most I believe our leased, and the demand exceeds the supply, so production is being dramatically ramped up.
Between fluid sales and new equipment production, PCTL is growing dramatically each month. With all of that happening, the company continues to routinely add distributors, and all their businesses are growing. Covid-19 may have dramatically increased the interest in HOCL, but as it goes away, and businesses that closed are reopened, the demand will actually increase as sanitation will be a bigger part of all business post Covid-19.
Gary
In other corporations I've seen revised quarterlies issued to correct problems. I don't understand why the same couldn't be applied here, put out the quarterly with the best possible information in it, but if you're wrong, revise it to reflect what happens.
I believe the problem may be more complex than that, and perhaps the biggest reason that LP took over as CFO. I believe they could risk SEC problems if they drag this into the next quarter, so I'll be very surprised if it's not issued before July 1st.
I certainly think we'll either have data lock by July 1st, or an update, perhaps in the 10-Q on what's happening. I do believe a soft lock has occurred, the contractor is at work, and after the hard lock, they may not need that much time to put everything together. We should learn something in the next two weeks.
Gary
Out of curiosity, how automated is the company when it comes to things like filling gallon bottles of HOCL. It's hard to say how much is being bottled, and how much is being sold in bulk, but I've seen automated processes where bottles essentially were untouched by human hands. I don't believe that is yet the things are being done.
If I'm correct about that, over time, substantial money should be invested in making it that sort of process, as demand will be there in the future in the same way that demand is there for a variety of bleaches today. Practically every market will have Clorox, Purex, and market brands of bleach in a variety of bottle sizes, I believe most come off totally automated processes.
While I like the idea of employing people, automation certainly proves to be profitable when you are doing substantial volume. Fewer people may be involved in the automated production, but most of them should make greater wages, so it's more of an occupation than a job.
Gary
Ripdog,
While I can understand what you're saying my belief is that many Analysts do much the same thing by lowering their rating from buy to hold when a stock reaches their target. My preference is to reassess the stock when a particular target is reached, if you think the upside potential diminished, fine, sell some, or lower your rating, but if you still view the upside potential as great, raise your target, then reassess when you meet the new target.
Frankly I believe the potential here is so great that you might reassess right up to double digit dollars in a few years. Certainly nothing goes straight up, their will be dips, and if you're a traded, and trading in and out, I'm fine with that. My only point is that if you still believe in the potential, why sell out a substantial part of your position.
I like to play craps. When I'm on a hot roll, have taken a fair amount of money off the table, I sometimes get a premonition that 7 is about to hit. Sometimes I'm right, other times I'm wrong, I rarely act on such premonitions as if I'm wrong, I could make a lot of money if I remain involved. In a hot roll I'll have lots of money on every number, each paying odds as they're all placed bets that I've gradually build up, when I reach that point I'll put some money on the Horn so even crap rolls pay me, only the 7 ends it. I'm much the same in stock, as long as I see the upside being positive. I certainly don't win most times I go to the crap table, but when I do it can make up for several times when I've lost.
I believe that PCTL has set the table, we have money on all the numbers, but we get to ignore all the 7's, the numbers will just keep coming. We just have to wait for it to happen and collect our money.
Gary
Thanks Marzan,
I wish I could say that DCVax-Direct could be of benefit to me, but with a blood based cancer like leukemia you don't have a tumor to inject the vaccine into. That's not to say it couldn't work, perhaps making it and just putting it into the blood could have a benefit, but at this point it's certainly an unknown. In survivor's case their is no doubt that if he had a tumor show, getting some Direct into it would offer potential.
I'm not an expert on the technologies, I don't try to be, but I'm facinated by all that is happening, and as a patient at City of Hope have been amazed at what they do there that's completely unseen by patients. My Dr. heads hematology there and has been involved in T-cell work for ages, but you'd never know if you didn't discuss it with him. The patient I mentioned who had T-cells spiked a fever to 107 on their introduction, so it certainly was dangerous, and something my Dr. doesn't want to put me through, though it's a possibility should I come out of remission.
I believe there are many new and exciting developments in cancer, and in general I believe they'll work with a vaccine. I forget the company that advertises that we don't make anything you use, we make products that make many things you use work better. I think our vaccines will make many therapeutics work better. I think their could be a huge benefit to the use of DCVax-Direct before surgery if it can be given weeks to months before the surgery. My feeling is that if you get it into the mets which can't be see or removed at the time of the surgery, they may be prevented from growing and just die out, whereas without such treatments, mets often result in spreading the cancer, often not detected for many years after the cancer is surgically removed in spite of all the current treatment post surgery.
Perhaps a question that may be looked at in the future is, can DCVax-Direct, or something based on it, be utilized prior to a detectable cancer being found as a vaccine that would prevent it. It's the sort of question that could take decades to prove, as you're treating something you don't know will ever exist, but it's said that most of us have cancers that our bodies eliminate in the normal course of life, and we never learn of them. Boosting our bodies to do more certainly lies within the realm of possibilities. I believe any vaccine intended to lower the likelihood of cancer will be a personalized vaccine, it may not be DCVax-Direct, but there will be similarities.
Gary
Thanks Marzan,
I wish I could say that DCVax-Direct could be of benefit to me, but with a blood based cancer like leukemia you don't have a tumor to inject the vaccine into. That's not to say it couldn't work, perhaps making it and just putting it into the blood could have a benefit, but at this point it's certainly an unknown. In survivor's case their is no doubt that if he had a tumor show, getting some Direct into it would offer potential.
I'm not an expert on the technologies, I don't try to be, but I'm facinated by all that is happening, and as a patient at City of Hope have been amazed at what they do there that's completely unseen by patients. My Dr. heads hematology there and has been involved in T-cell work for ages, but you'd never know if you didn't discuss it with him. The patient I mentioned who had T-cells spiked a fever to 107 on their introduction, so it certainly was dangerous, and something my Dr. doesn't want to put me through, though it's a possibility should I come out of remission.
I believe there are many new and exciting developments in cancer, and in general I believe they'll work with a vaccine. I forget the company that advertises that we don't make anything you use, we make products that make many things you use work better. I think our vaccines will make many therapeutics work better. I think their could be a huge benefit to the use of DCVax-Direct before surgery if it can be given weeks to months before the surgery. My feeling is that if you get it into the mets which can't be see or removed at the time of the surgery, they may be prevented from growing and just die out, whereas without such treatments, mets often result in spreading the cancer, often not detected for many years after the cancer is surgically removed in spite of all the current treatment post surgery.
Tox,
I purely invest for the long term, I don't like the idea of buying and selling on tiny percentage difference in the share price, but that's me. I believe most of those here are looking at the long term potential, but may be willing to trade while maintaining long term involvement.
My fear in trading is being out just when something major that's new is announced just at the point when I'm out. You have to do a lot of successful trades to make up for just one time when you're out at the time some major news comes in. I can't say what the podcast might do Monday morning, but it is possible the low for the day might be pennies higher than Friday's close. If that were the case, a trader out on Friday afternoon would be seriously burned on Monday.
I really wonder what would happen if we could put out the word to everyone who's invested for the long term not to sell for a given time period, a day, a week, or a month. I suspect that if we communicated with enough people, the share price would be up dramatically by the end of whatever the period was. Certainly someone will sell at a higher price, but if a lot of people who normally would stopped doing so, I suspect the price would be up substantially as only short term investors would be doing any trading.
It would be interesting to see what would happen this Monday if all who're looking at this site refused to sell a share for that day. 1000 shares only costs roughly $50, it would be even more interesting if we all agreed to purchase at least 1000 shares on Monday, in fact, if we wanted to send a message, it might be interesting if whatever we purchased, we ended it with say a 9, don't buy 1000 shares, buy 999, or 1009, or 10009, I think we might drive the MM's crazy. I really don't like having odd numbers in my portfolio, so perhaps you do one trade ending in a 9, and the next ending in a 1, so you're back to even.
Gary
Marzan,
I didn't mean they should go all the way to issuing TLD before getting everything, though I suppose it's possible. I was only suggesting that by a soft unblind they could go to work on all they had while continuing to work on getting what's needed for a hard blind. Hopefully by now they're very close to being able to announce hard unblind.
If the company doing the data consolidation began working some weeks ago, they could be close to finishing all they could get. When the remainder is available to them, it may only take a few days to include it, we're 10 days from the end of the month, so it may still be possible to get TLD before July 1st, though it's doubtful.
I'd say the odds are very much in our favor of having TLD before the end of July, I'm certainly willing to wait. Hopefully we'll learn more in a matter of days, I certainly believe the first quarter results will be in before the end of the month, if unblinding hasn't been announced by then, we certainly should get new guidance from the company. If they fail to issue the 10-Q during this quarter, I would think there would be serious SEC concerns.
Gary
Hopefully with NED you'll never need Direct, but it would be nice to know it's there if something does show. I'm hoping Direct will be available in time for my sister who's on experimental chemo's but could certainly get further benefits if it were available.
You've done amazingly well, and with NED hopefully it will continue to the end of your normal life. I feel the same way, each time I go to City of Hope they do a BCR-ABL test and it's been negative for 5 years, they can detect blasts down to .0001% and if they ever see even anything it would mean trouble. I remain on chemo purely to diminish the chance, even though my odds aren't terrible without it.
When I was about a month post stem cells I met a man who was transfused the same day I was, he'd come out of remission, but he had the benefit of using his own stem cells. Three days later he was given his own T-cells modified as cancer killers. While I was going to City of Hope twice a week, he only had to come in every two weeks because with his own cells, rejection wasn't a consideration. I never saw him again, but believe he was doing very well. City of Hope was one of the developers of CAR-T therapy, they create their own drugs there, but get little credit. The genesis of drugs like Herceptin was actually City of Hope, there are many others.
I believe that both DCVax-L and Direct could become mainstays in the treatments of many solid cancers, not that they're curative by themselves, but may be in combination with other therapeutics. Perhaps what's most important is they extend life without adding substantial quality of life issues. I'm a big believer that quality of life should be given greater importance when it comes to drug trials. If I drug fails to extend life beyond the SOC, but makes life more tolerable, it should be approved and allow the patients and Doctors determine what's right for each patient.
My grandmother died of pancreatic cancer, but she was 94 and she choose to not take the chemo of those days to give her additional time, just drugs to make the quality of her life tolerable. Her mind was sharp down to her last day when I visited her. She sounded so good that I was certain I'd see her again, and bring her great grandchildren, I didn't realize that medically the reason they'd have permitted me to bring them was she was so close to death. They hadn't been permitted to visit for many months. I fully supported her decision, I don't know how much the drugs of the day would have mattered, but I know they would have made her life far more painful.
Gary
Cassie,
As I see it there isn't a clock on how long it takes to provide the consolidated to the company after data lock. Let's say for talking purposes that it would take 30 days without a soft lock. But lets say you did a soft lock 25 days ago and now you have the last of the data. Perhaps only 5 or so more days would be needed to complete the job.
I really don't know why so many people don't seem to like the idea of a soft lock, it gets the ball rolling sooner. I believe they've done it, but I can't prove it any more than anyone can prove they haven't. I believe they have something over 90% of what's needed to do data lock, why not let the the data consolidators complete their work on that 90+%, then when what's missing becomes available, it can be handled quickly.
We don't know what they're waiting for, it might all boil down to information needed about a single patient in the trial, whether living or dead, but to be complete, they need that data. I'm not saying this is the case, we don't know, and the company's not going to tell us in that much depth. The shorts could really get caught with their pants down if data lock was called, and a few days later TLD was announced. That sort of scenario is possible if much of the work was done after a soft lock occurred.
I don't know the path the company is choosing, but I don't think it will be that much longer before we'll all be very happy with what we're reading in TLD.
Gary
It was brief, but it also referred me to someone about a personal health question. Perhaps DI is getting tired of answering the same question, but frankly, we all know the answer. I don't believe they're responding to anyone about soft lock, at least IMHO all discussion is of announcing when they have a hard lock, the soft lock may, or may not have occurred, but in my mind it's logical to have done it to shorten the time to TLD.
Gary
I don't know why people view soft lock so negatively, it's a chance to get started before you have absolutely everything you need. In essence, it's shortening the time needed to get to TLD, what's wrong with that.
I may be wrong, but I believe it's happened, I believe the contractor the company hired to consolidate all the trial has gone to work, and when the last needed information comes in, they'll announce hard lock. If the contractor by that time has gathered in perhaps something over 90% of what's needed, they should be able to deal with the remainder in a matter of days. I don't know that late June/early July may still not be in play. I certainly believe that sometime in July is.
I believe that management is still looking to surprise the shorts and their tactics may be aimed at doing just that. I think anyone short at this point is foolish, but based on the posts, some people are. I think the short squeeze will work in the benefit of the rest of us.
Gary
If they truly do the podcast on Monday, I'll admit I was wrong that the 10-K and Q would come first. To get questions about it Gary should confront it up front and indicate their intent, then go on to all the great things the company is doing.
As someone who likes to sleep in here in L.A., I'll know the reaction to the podcast when I check the stock price, I'll probably check what people are saying here before listening for myself. One nice thing about podcasts is that if you have the link, you can listen any time.
I'd love to wake up say an hour into the market and find the price doubled, I believe that's possible, but it may require more than a podcast to do it. I'm looking forward to the financials in the next two weeks, as people have suggested, not because I read them in depth, I don't, but because they're needed to eliminate people's doubts and eliminate foolish claims by those shorting the stock. I do skim the reports, more for news than actual dollar results, and I completely ignore anything warning me about the risks of investing in stocks. I would like to see all the warnings published by the SEC, the reports saying, see SEC XXXXX, and turn the reports into what they once were, positive documents about the company along with current financial figures.
Gary
We conversed this week over email, I had another issue and he put me in touch with others in the company. He clearly said all investors will be told of data lock.
I would hope we get the quarterly this week, and if we don't have data lock by then, I believe we'd at least get some further guidance about it. Of course it's possible that both will be covered in the same release.
Gary
As I see it, each patient in the trial represents slightly under 1/3rd of 1% of the data they're gathering. If data from a single patient was all that was preventing hard lock, under a soft lock over 99% of the data could be consolidated by the contractor.
Like so many others, DI has assured me we'd all be notified of hard lock, but no commitment was made on soft lock. I believe they've done it, and if I'm right, and if data's only lacking from one, or just a few patients, I believe that only a few days should be required from when hard lock is announced, and when the consolidated data is provided to the company, and the TLD statement can be prepared.
I'm not saying this is the case, it's just my belief, but if I'm right, once we get data lock, I believe TLD may come within two weeks, or less.
Gary
Analysts rarely predict targets that are major multiples of the current price. Ask yourself what a fair market cap is for a company that can cure pneumonia in most people. Does anyone not think that will be in billions?
With our current O/S $1 billion in market cap is roughly a $40 share price. How many billions do you believe an effective therapeutic for Covid-19 and other forms of pneumonia. The patent filings for the drug indicate pneumonia as a potential target, at the time Covid-19 was an unknown, but it's the pneumonia the drug is curing, and it will help cure pneumonias caused by other diseases.
I frankly believe a double, and some day even triple digit billion dollar market cap is a possibility in time, but first we need the trial based proof.
Gary
DE,
As I remember what you said about the electrostatic sprayer you're going to be marketing, it had the corporate name on it. If that's the case, are you having it manufactured for the company, and making it available to all other distributors of the companies products.
It's certainly a unit I can think of at least a few people may want, when you have more information about it, I think many of us would like to know about it.
Thanks for all you're doing, I believe you'll be very successful.
Gary
Thanks Egold,
You clarified what I believed, but what's not clear to me is what limitations are placed on distributors. Some of them appear to be trying to sell products nationwide. Others may be geographically limited. I'm not sure if there are limitations, or if it's up to the distributor how far reaching they can be with their products.
Gary
It appears that in the agreement with distributors PCTL is permitting them to promote their own products, and they won't publicize who's doing what, at least they won't unless the distributor agrees to it. I can respect that.
That doesn't prevent us from posting what we know, or learn here, but it explains why the company won't go on the record and promote all who're distributing their product either using the PCTL labeled product, or packaging it themselves.
I would suspect that nearly all distributors who don't produce the HOCL themselves order it in bulk and repackage it. I would think they'd have the option of using their own label, or PCTL's label.
Even if the website can't clearly show all that's going on, over time the earnings will clearly show the growth in the company. It may take a little longer waiting for earnings, but they're coming and by this time next year I believe it's very possible that we'll move the decimal point two places to the right.
We have a number of people here, like Egold, who're excellent at identifying distributors who're using our products, but doing so in their own names. I suspect that in the future it's very possible that a market, drugstore, etc might have more than one product on the shelf that's HOCL being provided by different distributors under different labels that's all being produced with PCTL's process, in some cases it may have been produced by PCTL, whereas in other the distributor may be producing it on equipment from the company. Regardless of how or where it's produced, somehow the company gets paid.
Gary
DE,
I congratulate you on becoming a level 3 distributor and hope that it doesn't change your ability to be as open about what you're doing. I'm not aware of any of our other distributors who're anywhere near as open about what they're doing.
I think we all are sometimes amazed at the many ways certain distributors market a variety of products all based on HOCL, I don't know if anything is ever added to it, or if it's all about bottling or packaging it in a wide variety of ways.
I don't know if it's your intent to have your own labels on products, or say they're PCTL based HOCL, it's apparent that other distributors do what they choose in marketing products. It's also clear that they're able to sell a variety of products not provided by PCTL. I believe you'll have tremendous success because you have ties into the petroleum industry, and they'll use tremendous quantities, while your building all sorts of customers looking to improve how they sanitize a variety of businesses including healthcare. I cannot think of a faster growing industry.
Gary
I want to thank you for doing this, but at the same time I don't believe it should be your responsibility. Unless the companies distribution agreements have clauses that indicate the company will not, or cannot divulge all it's distributors, I believe it should be maintained on their website. Likewise a list of all the hospital ought to be maintained on their website.
I very much appreciate the efforts of people like you who keep many of the rest of us up to date. I suspect that if all this information, including a list of the myriad of products that are available through the variety of distributors who package products under their own labels, I frankly have no idea if anything is added to the various formulations.
I was particularly interested in the supplier that seemed to have a variety of products, such as the one intended for cleaning up eye makeup. We know that HOCL is found in our eyes naturally, so it's an ideal product for cleaning off makeup around the eye. I think it's a brilliant marketing scheme if in fact it's identical to what's sold by the gallon, but by labeling it for cleaning eye makeup a few ounces can sell at a substantial price when compared to what a gallon sells for. The truth is, that few ounces is probably good for many months, no one would want to have a gallon bottle by the bathroom sink for that purpose.
I believe that if the corporate website provided all this information, the stock price would be dramatically higher as people would recognize what the company truly is doing. I'm not a website designer, but I know people who do it, and I believe they could build the site in such a way that it would be easy to maintain. As the company added a distributor, they'd just click on the proper link and add them to the mix, if it was maintained alphabetically, it would automatically put the new distributor in it's proper order. Ideally you could click on any distributor and get a list of the products they're selling, and a link to contact them directly.
I really don't believe it will be too long before investors learn what this company represents. When that happens, I wouldn't be surprised to see the share price over $1.
Gary
As I see it, it's an International trial, any new sites added should reduce the time to being fully enrolled. I don't know why Europe is taking so much time, especially Germany who actually set up an agreement with PSTI before the trial was even scheduled.
I would hope that they're willing to oversubscribe the trial if the demand is there. I don't like the fact that all are not receiving PLX-PAD what creates a placebo effect in a patient who's in an induced coma, as I understand it, that's what's done with people put on ventilator, and I believe the trial is for patients on ventilators already. To me, the control group could be the tens of thousands of others already on ventilator.
Frankly comparing the curves for the U.S. with the rest of the world is sad, we've peaked, but then stabilized near the top while others have come back down close to baseline, yet our Federal Govt. would like us to think the problem is over. I hope PLX-PAD is the answer, if it isn't Covid-19 could be a serious threat for at least another year or two.
Gary
I certainly don't know what all the investors who purchased NWBO at dramatically higher prices have done, but I would hope that given the lows it's sold for, you've all brought your average price down, ideally under a dollar. If you have, the likelihood is that by the end of next month, you'll be nicely profitable. If not, you'll have to wait a little longer.
I was fortunate enough to be told about NWBO at much lower prices, I now have a very healthy profit, but I won't be selling at any time in the immediate future. Taking a profit is fine, but I believe recognizing the potential is better. Why should I take a few thousand dollars in profits when I believe that the same stock can give me hundreds of thousand, or more in the future.
Will I sell anything, perhaps if I sense the price is due to retrench I'll sell in the Roth IRA's and hopefully buy back more shares than I sold if I'm right about retrenching, but I'm not looking to do that before we're somewhere over $1.
I hope that all who've been in this for many years at a loss won't choose to get out when they're break even, do that and I believe you're surrendering the potential for a great gain.
I do believe BP will be partnering NWBO by years end. I really hope that's as far as they go, as I believe that the company can go much higher than the rumored $20 price they want for a buyout. If it's true these vaccines have benefits in multiple cancers, I don't see how you can keep the share price under triple digits in time.
Gary
I believe that both the annual and quarterly report will speak to tremendous growth coming, but will still show losses in the financial portion of the report. Losses are diminishing, and that should be clear, but initial profits won't be seen until they issue second quarter results. If they're on time, August should be when we see it, but that hasn't occurred recently.
I've never completely understood why companies hold things for the very last day whether they're on time, or receive permission to delay a specific number of days. I'd be willing to bet that in most every case they could be out a few days earlier, but they always seem to hold for the last day they're permitted to legally issue such a report. Frankly, little punishment is seen when companies miss these dates, but if there is punishment, it's probably a fine that shareholders don't hear about.
I would hope that not only do they issue the second quarter on time, but with it they conduct a webcast to discuss results. Most bigger companies have webcasts when quarterlies are released and if PCTL started to do them, it would be a sign of their growth. It would also mean they're scheduling the release as the webcast is normally scheduled a few hours, or day after the report is issued, and you know about it a week or more before it's actually issued.
Our CEO is not shy about doing Podcast's, I believe he'd do fine in a quarterly webcast which ideally would permit Analysts to question him after the formal presentation. People may not think we have Analysts following the company, but I think we'd be surprised to find that there are.
Analysts don't necessarily recommend a stock, though they may be following it. Generally they want it at much higher prices before recommending it. My point is that if they do ask questions, while the stock is trading for under a dollar, they'll be recommending it once it breaks through that threshold. I doubt if we'll see a dollar by second quarter results, but it may be far more possible when we release third quarter results, hopefully in early November.
Gary
Probably about half a dozen that did it to stay on the Nasdaq, only a couple that did it to achieve Nasdaq. Some made it, but investors were still punished when the R/S was done. The problem often is dilution following a R/S that results in the original shareholders ending up in a minority position. Companies never say that's the intent, and perhaps it isn't at the instant the R/S is done, but it's easier to issue new shares at higher prices and it invariably happens.
I believe that Gary's saying that's not his intent is the right way for the company to go. If we just get the financial out, and hopefully the second quarter and beyond out on time, I really don't think it will be that long before we're looking at $1. I believe the AMEX is available at $1, I'd much rather see that than a R/S to achieve the Nasdaq.
Gary
Hopefully by October we'll have FDA approval to use PLX-PAD. In that I live in California, I've looked at the predictions for it, but the U.S. is generally much the same. Here's a link to California:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california
You'll note that in October, if the curve is correct, the number of patients needing an ICU bed will exceed the number of beds available.
While I hope this is wrong, and in general I think California has handled this well, I fear it may be right as people are fighting the guidance and doing more than they're told in terms of not distancing, or wearing masks much of the time.
Personally I've yet to eat in an indoor restaurant, though some are open with limited seating. Perhaps I'm being overly cautious, but I still fear Covid-19. Many people don't seem to fear it, and I'm afraid that some of them will find that they're wrong.
Gary
Snow,
I really don't like Reverse Splits used in that way as shareholders generally see diminished equity in R/S's. I believe that one solidly increasing revenue is documented for a few quarters the Nasdaq can be achieved without a R/S, that's the proper way of doing it.
I believe a share price of a dollar or more is very achievable this year, by next year we could be meeting all Nasdaq requirements. I see no reason of pushing the negatives attached to a R/S just to slightly shorten the time to get there. I know people say you lose nothing in an R/S, but I've never seen one where the price didn't go down substantially, even if it did regain its prior value in time. If our share price were $1, a R/S would probably have to be 1 for 10 to assure a $4 price after the negatives associated with a R/S, certainly in time it would return to $10 or more, but had the R/S never occur, it's likely if would be $4 by that time, and would qualify for the Nasdaq without the R/S.
It's a slightly different matter when a Nasdaq company is forced to do a R/S to remain on the Nasdaq, but even then it often takes quite awhile to recover from the R/S. Our current O/S is not so high as to require such an action, this company should easily reach a market cap well into the billions, and that will put us on the Nasdaq without an R/S.
Gary
Who do you think the investor of the hybrid drive system was? Most people would almost certainly answer Toyota. It wasn't, Toyota purchased it from General Motors. At the time, GM thought it to expensive to justify vs. the cost of gasoline. Now GM and any other car builded utilizing the hybrid system as designed by GM pays Toyota for the rights.
I believe much the same can be said for the developer of our HOCL producing system. They sold the rights to it, all patent rights, then they realized that they undervalued what they sold it for. They defied the sale by continuing to sell a product that they sold the rights to, and I believe it's clear that the courts will find what they've done to be illegal.
I suspect the courts may say, they can pay PCTL for the rights to use patents they developed, but just as GM must pay Toyota is they build a hybrid car or truck, they must pay PCTL for the rights to use their patents in competing, if that wasn't covered in the original contract. If competing was covered, and they weren't permitted to compete regardless, they may owe PCTL all the ill gotten gains. I'm not an attorney, this is purely my opinion, but it's based on my understanding of the hybrid issue.
Many years before the hybrid, Ford had a hardtop convertible. I believe it was 1959. As I understand it, today their are many companies that build hardtop convertibles, and they all pay Ford for the rights of doing so. It's funny how ideas sometimes are ignored for substantial periods of times, then resurface like they're new technology. HOCL has been around for many years, but suddenly people are recognizing just how good it is.
Gary
It's my understanding that Gary has previously stated he would not do a reverse split, I believe that's the case. The Nasdaq has some rather high standards for listing, here's a link to what they require:
https://listingcenter.nasdaq.com/assets/initialguide.pdf
I do believe the company is making tremendous strides, and they will be apparent in the latter quarters, but looking at the standards, I don't know that a Nasdaq listing this year is in the realm of possibilities. Next year, it's very possible, but doing it this year would be truly amazing.
I hope the company proves me wrong.
Gary
I see people saying the 10-Q is being held up to also state we have data lock. Some have gone as far as believing a partnership will be announced as well. I recognize there is a cost for each PR, but each of these events should be considered a positive, why would a company want to group the positives into a single release.
Is it really worth the savings of a few thousand to be subjected to the criticism for each day the quarterly filing is later. Perhaps that's the choice they're making, but to me it's false economy when it's clear that the stock price is being held down by the lack of this news.
As for the idea of a partnership now, I don't believe any company would pay the sort of money LP would want to partner before being able to see the data. That said, if the company under confidentiality could look at the data being gathered, even under a soft lock, anything is possible. While I still believe a higher priced offer is far more justified after TLD has been announced, no telling what may be happening if the company is negotiating with one, or more, potential BP partners. I know everyone seems to believe Merck has the inside track, and they certainly appear to, but I still don't believe they have a lock, and we just might be surprised when a partnership is finally announced.
Gary
Please sticky this post.
Don't ignore PSTI's PLX-PAD, they've had excellent results with compassionate use patients, their trial has recently begun, but shouldn't take that long to run. Their biggest advantage is getting 20,000 doses from a single placenta.
I believe their 3-D bioreactor is superior to anything else available for producing their products.
Gary
I really believe the Politics should be taken to a political site, I don't want to get dragged into it here.
I've not written DI in awhile, and while I believe he committed to saying when the trial was locked, I don't believe it applied to a soft lock, and frankly I'm hoping that has occurred. Whay? Because if they've done that, they can gather up all the information that's fixed while pursuing whatever must be resolved before saying they've done the hard lock. I tend to think that could be well over 90% of all they need, and once they get what's needed for hard lock, it may only be a matter of a few days to put it all together and provide the consolidated data to the company. TLD should only be a few days after that.
I cannot say the end of June or early July is still in play, perhaps when we are told we have hard lock we'll also get an indication of when to expect TLD. Perhaps some word will come when the 10-Q is issued, which should certainly be no later than the end of the month, hopefully much sooner. While we're gradually moving up, I believe once the 10-Q is out and we have hard lock the pace of our advance will accelerate. As I see it, the greater the price before TLD is announced the greater the potential is when it has been.
Gary
It's my belief that PSTI's, and perhaps one or two others, will change the outcome for the greater majority of patients with serious cases of pneumonia. Ultimately more than one may be approved for use, and the question of what will be used may largely be based on availability.
Yes, we know that existing drugs help, but while available, and cheap, they won't produce results that compare with PLX-PAD as long as trial results mirror what initial compassionate use results have been. Of the companies that may have comparable results, I believe that PSTI has the greatest capability of providing substantial quantities quickly.
If I'm correct about the above, I believe our drug will be utilized for many Covid-19 patients, and I think it will be found that if administered shortly after pneumonia is diagnosed, most patients can avoid hospitalization, so while the treatment cost may be high, the overall cost is significantly lower than an extensive hospital stay. I don't believe insurance, or anyone else will balk at giving the drug. I would expect that we can gain an emergency approval within weeks of initial trial findings which hopefully might be in August or September based on the 28 day evaluation of the last patient to enter the trial.
All indications here in the U.S. are that the curve hasn't been brought down nearly as much as in much of the rest of the world. Some states are rising in the worst way, hospitalizations approaching capacity. While other states are more stable, even have hospitalizations coming down, though totals with the disease may be rising, the numbers passing on are still only coming down slowly. I don't know that any states are going to shut down after re-opening, but I believe they'll need to really push use of masks and social distancing. The message coming from Washington needs to change, masks can't be optional if we're going to bring the curve down, and not let it take off again.
Protests may have caused greater infection, but there is growing evidence that it's much safer to be outdoors than indoors if you're in a crowd. The President's rally is probably the worst case scenario as people are not only indoors, they're immobile so if someone has it, those seated near them for the duration of the rally are being heavily exposed, especially if not wearing masks. The idea that all who attend must sign a waiver tells you it's not safe, but plenty of the President's fans don't mind taking the risk.
I would hope a vaccine is available before next year, I do believe it's a possibility. As a senior who's immune compromised I'd hope to be among the earliest to receive it, once it's been determined effective. I believe even with a vaccine, precautions will need to be taken until such time as the numbers with the disease, and especially the numbers in hospitals, are nearly zero. I hope that by this time next year life has returned to a normal that permits us to do much of what we previously did. I'm not sure that normal as it was will ever be again.
Gary
I agree with what you're saying, but I believe we can do even better than that. To date, we've saved people who were on ventilators over 20 days before they received PLX-PAD, I believe that if we can get to them either before, or just as they go on ventilator, our survival percentages could top 90%.
I can't say the earliest intervention with PLX-PAD can be of benefit, but I have a feeling that if you've been diagnosed with pneumonia it will help, if I'm correct about that, it may be very possible to prevent most pneumonia patients from needing hospitalizations at all.
Certainly many pneumonia patients never need hospitalization. The drug won't be cheap, but both shortening the time in treatment of pneumonia patients and preventing the greater majority from ever needing hospitalization may offset the higher cost of the drug over normal treatment.
I recently had a stress test, at the time I had it I was cautioned that my insurance company hadn't yet approved it. I had been told that it was about $2K for the test, but that's if you pay cash. When I arrived I was told that the insured price was $20K and that's what I'd be billed if insurance refused to pay. After some negotiations they agreed to take the cash price, as I would have left and waited for insurance approval if they didn't. By the time I finished the test my wife had gotten the insurance approval. My point is that medical pricing needs reform, it's a game. They bill the insurance $20K, I suspect they settle for something over the $2K that's the cash price, but given all the paperwork required, they should be entitled to more than the cash price. They really need to reform the system, but Insurance likes patients to think they got hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars in benefits that actually cost them tens of thousands of dollars.
If we ever want to reduce healthcare costs significantly, we need to cut out the games they play and stabilize the price at something that's reasonable to all.
Gary
Scotty,
Much that NWBO represents is the future of how diseases will be fought, namely personalized medicines rather than one size fits all drugs. You may be correct that prior to approval $2.50 is a fair price, but much will have to do with how badly a BP want to be in this growing niche in healthcare.
Sales over time in just GBM should certainly justify a multi-billion dollar market cap, but anecdotally it's known to work in other cancers. Once approved you can bet anecdotal evidence will grow as Doctors and patients agree to try it off label in other cancers. Without a partnership it may take time for revenue to permit many additional trials, but with a partnership, funds will be available. Trials take time to initiate, but they will come, and with them the recognition of the real potential of the company.
I believe a BP who wants in on this technology will be willing to pay top dollar if the data looks as good as we believe it does. Time will tell. If you're right, I'll not complain about $2.50, I wouldn't complain about $1 as long as I still believed in the potential to go to double, and eventually triple digits. Let's see what TLD brings, I believe a partnership will fall into the period between TLD and drug approval. Of course somewhere between one and the other we'll also get a presentation of the complete data which could also buoy the stock price. I would suspect that even without unblinding they've submitted an Abstract to SNO indicating that unblinded data will be presented there, probably another virtual conference, but that's fine, it still will constitute peer review. That's really when they learn the intricate details of the trial, TLD is essentially just the highlights.
Gary