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I'm protected to the downside. I've been following that one as well as the RHS on the 1 year for GOLD
Lexington is motivated by 7 mil in escrow, payable once SP reaches $5 per share for a period of 40 days in a 90 day time frames on or before 1 year following the merger. I think this was the verbiage I'm the merger. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong.
I won't argue that, but I can provide 20-30 historical charts showing moves to the upside on the horizon as well. There are a dozen different factors right now making, breaking, supporting and shattering your theory. Problem being, nobody knows how the pieces fit. You obviously have a bearish bias, and I get that. I have also prepared for that. I hope you are prepared for a bullish move as well. I am. GLTA here. Good night.
Unfortunately, experience doesn't mean much in these situations....meaning no precedent to validate a trade. GL friend
I think you are overthinking this a bit. Every suggestion you made is a possibility, and futile. Like I said I am biased towards bullish sentiment, however I have several bearish plays in my ledger (options) which can counteract the potential move downwards should it happen. I also have leaps for a bullish move through January and several shares on both directions as well in NIGT, DUST, GLD, GDX and solid holding in physical. I can tolerate a move in either direction and adjust to make money and maximize profits no matter how this plays out. I do believe this will be volatile no matter where it goes. I believe a spike north no matter the out me of our gov over the next 2-3 weeks regardless. Then.....who knows
Neither....I'm simply saying the trend has not held constant, and a prediction can't be made. However...I'm leaning more towards a bullish move over the next month to 3 months due to the charts and fundamentals not adding up to precedent. I typically use options, and in situations like this I plan accordingly. Meaning, I set up for moves on both directions, but I have a long term plan predicated on a bullish bias for my long-term portfolio. I believe the patterns are broken, and any conventional wisdom on the sector is out the window. I could be wrong, but my thesis is based on the fact that my previous predictions, based on those fundamentals, has lost me money this quarter, and I don't think anyone can make heads or tales of it.
I don't believe you or the majority of talking heads have it right. The current price action has proven that the general market is not reacting as it has in the past to similar fiscal and federal catalysts. It appears that the market has decided that at current levels, gold and equities alike will mirror and/or truncate past prices of vehicles for underlying commodities so long as the market appears to have no symbiotic relationship (as was true I the past) to typical bellwethers in the sector. I think that no matter the outcome here, good will find a rebound. If delayed Gov, longer timeframe, if sooner, expedited timeframe. IMO
The stated index for these two is the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. GDX is a good one to track for symmetry
Looking at the A/D indicator on GDX it shows a net Accumulation reading for the last two days. Appears to be manipulation for cheap shares on the surface.
Or he owns the hotdog company and his go cart is a RR. I think the point here with Silver was to instigate discussion from the different viewpoints out there. It's always good to know how strong the oppositions argument is. If it's weak then more power to us. If it's strong, more power to us. Either way it's still entertaining.
"I am fascinated by the tremendous supply of goods, food, energy, services etc. the world is creating which we enjoy abundantly due to our USA Reserve Currency Super Power Status."
Agreed, and this is scary on many levels. Another food for thought from a recent interview with Rick Rule when asked where the West is really heading:
“I think your question is very interesting, particularly in the context of the public and international response to the so-called government shutdown. First of all I would ask you, what shutdown? Second I would ask you, why the furlough of 800,000 ‘non-essential workers’ is a bad thing? “The third thing I would ask is, why do we have 800,000 ‘non-essential workers?’ But I guess all of this points to something much more important: The commentary inside and outside of the United States has to do with the threat of shutting off the near-term liquidity that is driving a financial bubble.
It would be more hopeful if people were talking about the debt ceiling, and the advisability of continuing to overspend. I am not hearing anything in the mainstream media discussion about the real cause of the problem, which is simply that we are over-governed and we are spending too much."
I tend to agree with this.
Then there is this from Dr. Martin D. Weiss, an opinion with very real implications. I believe we come to an agreement in the 11th hour, but even then it's just a bandaid until and ultimate resolution presents itself in the form of an inevitable taper, or.....it doesn't/can't happen in a timely fashion (or ever) and this becomes a very real outcome:
Scenario #5
Global bond investors rise in rebellion, dump their U.S. bond holdings and force a government contraction
What's unique about this scenario is that it has happened before — in 1980, under the Carter administration.
The federal budget deficit was huge, although not nearly as large as today's.
Consumer inflation was taking off due to years of aggressive easy money by the Fed, although not nearly as aggressive as the Fed's massive money printing and bond buying of the past five years.
There was fear of a hotter cold war, although not nearly as intense as today's fears.
In response, bond buyers went on strike. It was virtually impossible for the United States government to sell its bonds at virtually any price.
Big U.S. government security dealers on Wall Street — such as Salomon Brothers and Merrill Lynch — found that they could not even sell small lots of bonds in the market. There were simply no buyers.
Other dealers, afraid of losses that would wipe out their capital, closed shop.
U.S. bond prices plunged uncontrollably — as much as five full points in one day. Interest rates skyrocketed — to nearly 17 percent for U.S. Treasury bills. The bond market virtually shut down, threatening to shut down the entire government — even the entire nation.
Can this happen again? Absolutely. In fact, among all the scenarios now before us, this is ultimately the most likely.
Indeed, most other scenarios may turn out to be little more than sneak previews that lead to this final outcome.
"What say you"
As an options trader (primarily) by nature, I tend to not pick a side, rather a trend and exploit it until the wheels fall off. However, I have a hard time reading the opinions of a man like this who shows such conviction, tunnel vision and certainty for his cause with total disregard to other very real and very scary alternate realities that are now more possible than ever before.
"I say" he needs to tackle a subject more out of his wheelhouse, like the Chinese and their apparent attempts to convert to a gold standard reserve. IMO....this could happen, and those people in China are buying it up very very quickly, laughing at us while we play with the paper money manipulation.
Variety or not....there are level, conservative, fundamentally sound and non-biased opinions, then there is this. I don't discriminate against contrarian POVs, nor do I follow the agenda driven rants of ultra-idealistically vested salesmen. This is garbage. I could meet him half way on this...but that is even difficult after having to sift through the ten pounds of BS this guy is trying to lipstick on this pig we call the Dollar. I often laugh at biased pieces, but the amount of misinformation (and intentional omission of fundamentally adverse facts to the sermon of this piece) is deafening on this one. I know you like to play devils advocate on occasion, but this one made my scotch go sour.
Can't argue with that. GL
I'm sure you do, and I can name just as many who say the opposite. I understand you have a bearish bias from reading the majority of your posts, my point is simply that until the manipulation has subsided (has to eventually), nobody can predict accurately. Good luck in either direction.
This manipulation will continue through EOW. However, once retail Chinese investors are back in the market next week, I don't believe these manipulators have the powder to continue this downward pressure without the Physical stockpiles to back it up. China does. I'm anxious to see how this shakes out.
China's central bank is still actively buying during gold week.
Don't expect anything. I can dig up 30 bearish charts and as many, if not more bullish ones. This is new world and a different scenario that any of those circles on the chart, none of which corolla tend a similar fundamental event as the one we currently face. I don't have the answer, but that's the point of this response. Nobody does. There is too much manipulation right now and you can only hope to ride the daily wave. GL
Scaling in here
I posted this a few says ago, but I'm anxious to see if there is any validity to it. Should have a chance today.
"Eric King: “Bill, there is a big buyer just below the market here isn’t there?”
Kaye: “At the moment, yes. Right around the $1,305 to $1,310 level there is a huge sovereign buyer. I suspect it’s China ... They are clearly running out of gold. This is clear from the continued backwardation of gold, and the continued negative GOFO rates, which is basically the same thing."
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/9/25_Massive_Sovereign_Bid_In_The_Gold_Market_At_This_Price_Level.html
I posted this a few says ago, but I'm anxious to see if there is any validity to it. Should have a chance today.
"Eric King: “Bill, there is a big buyer just below the market here isn’t there?”
Kaye: “At the moment, yes. Right around the $1,305 to $1,310 level there is a huge sovereign buyer. I suspect it’s China ... They are clearly running out of gold. This is clear from the continued backwardation of gold, and the continued negative GOFO rates, which is basically the same thing."
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/9/25_Massive_Sovereign_Bid_In_The_Gold_Market_At_This_Price_Level.html
Can you post the chart on that? On my iPad and can't do it myself
Nothing wrong with the sidelines. If you miss a few points on the move it's better than loosing multiples on a lotto ticket
"Gold prices were trading near unchanged levels and then spurted solidly higher following wire reports that Chicago Federal Reserve president Charles Evans said the U.S. central bank may not begin to scale back its monthly bond-buying program until 2014 because the U.S. economic environment still needs to improve. The U.S. dollar index also slumped to its session low in the wake of Evans’ remarks. However, his comments, overall, were ambiguous. Still, the gold market bulls chose to jump on those specific Evans remarks they deemed to be bullish.
In other overnight news, consumer confidence in the European Union rose to its highest level in more than two years during August. The EU’s economic sentiment indicator rose to 96.9 in September versus 95.3 in August. However, European stock markets were weaker due to concerns about the Italian government’s stability amid a fraud scandal involving former prime minister Berlusconi. Asian stock markets were firmer in uneventful action Friday, following Wall Street’s advance Thursday.
The main focus of the market place is now on the U.S. budget and debt ceiling impasses that threaten to shut down the U.S. government as soon as next Tuesday. Congress needs to pass a budget by that time and is working on bills. Presently, it’s highly uncertain if the Congress can come to agreement by October 1. Also, in mid-October the U.S. will hit its borrowing limit. These matters are presently an underlying bearish factor for most markets and could become a major bearish factor in the next couple weeks.
Some analysts are saying gold is presently seeing selling interest limited due to some safe-haven demand ahead of the U.S. budget and spending deadlines and the uncertainty of the matter. But other analysts are saying recent selling pressure in gold is because it’s acting like a raw commodity ahead of the U.S. budget deadlines. It’s likely one of these scenarios will more clearly come to the forefront by early next week.
Reports overnight said gold imports to India are set to increase significantly as a main festival season approaches and because the Indian government is now allowing heretofore delayed gold shipments into the country. The delay was because the government was not allowing gold imports into the country because of confusing import rules that have now been cleared up."
Bold statement...there's a lot of gasoline sitting on capital hill with the Obama administration and the House both holding matches. Could go either way
Gold week coming and China, India and Russia cant match demand. Let's see how this shakes out
The charts offer a good case to back you up, but the government has a tendency to change the patterns rather quickly during debt ceiling, QE and budget negotiations. We shall see
Understood, but if you reference the 10Q it appears that the large financiers liquidated their complete positions, and management admitted they will be focusing on placing shares in long term hands. I believe we need to watch volume as well to gauge reentry of Hudson. Don't forget they have 7 mil in escrow. They have the motivation and the means to achieve that IMO. Not saying it will, but it's a good argument for a long position, especially at these levels.
Well said, it's all about risk aversion of the investor and comfort levels and current SP. Personally I'm feeling more comfortable as time moves forward and SP goes down.
You are completely right, and what you suggest could happen. However, the 760,000 puts owned by Hudson, coupled with the sheer number of shares owned by both them and a couple of friendly, like minded, historically IP centric, front running financiers allowed the group to liquidate, drive SP down and create their own market in essence. This did not allow the SP to run, no company could in that situation. The circumstances are much different for round two and I will be putting a good amount of my own money on this fact. I believe the run-up happens and that I will likely triple my investment or more. GLTA
To which part? Lol
The bed statement or the price action?
Regarding price - One part arbitrary, one part sector trends and tendencies.
It appears that a decent trade channel has formed and the range may very from here, however not much IMO. Markman tends to attract investors starting around the 4 month mark and moving forward (up) from there. In times of information anemia the price will trend towards the down side at a slow bleed until fundamentals factually change. I believe this can wonder to around the 1.05-1.10 range. But, at such a discount to potential value post-successful litigation in enforcing their patents, I can't see buyers not waiting to pick up cheap shares in anticipation of front running the inevitable pre-Markman run (me included). Can it go lower? Yes. But I am comfortable buying in the aforementioned range. Can it go higher? Yes. And that will be just fine with me as I don't mind averaging up either. Hope this answers your question.
I'll start scaling in at $1.14
Ideally would like entry at around $1.10, but I won't kick $1.13 out of bed