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That's what it had weeks ago. Company only needs maybe $50M more in financing total. And not even until Sep/Oct to support into mid 19.
yeah the loss is large because of ASC 606 accounting. when you sign up a sub in a quarter you have show the cost over 3 years of that sub on the balance sheet. so at the burn rate at that time being far higher than it will be now, the cost for each new sub was huge.
burn rate peaked at $20M in may. they will have to restate the quarterlies over the last year because they changed the sub to 3x per month max. in the restated you will see the cost come way down.
per month this company is at $7m G/A expense and burn of under $20M now and burn is headed toward $0.
They will only need about $30M later this year to hold them over until its cashflow positive in 2019. Say $50M to be conservative.
That's nothing for a viral product. No R/S here, has to be VOTED in. Won't happen. Conversions can't really happen either as they won't be able to sell down here. They have to convert and hold or slowly convert as the PPS rises.
you realize the Q2 burn was only $38M, far below what was expected. G/A was $20M. Expenses above rev was $58M.
Company has $51M on hand as of 8/9. Forward next 3 months until Nov 9 expenses should be $20m g/a and burn of $20M. So, they have enough to last 3 months, and thats if there is no financing.
starting tomorrow back to any movie 3 movies per month. expect new revenues to begin as they promote.
the 3 months after from nov 9 til feb 9th they will only need $30M from $20m g/a expense and burn of $10m.
all I see needed is $30M and not until late this year. that is nothing.
Literally $30M turns this around until profitability where they can start making $4/mo/sub. They will get to 5M subs next year. That is $20M/mo/sub rev and only expense is $20M/quarter g/a.
That ends up being $40m/quarter profit run rate by this time next year.
which is $160M/year run rate. probably $80m adjusted earnings, 15 P/E. $1.2B valuation is what the market eyeing here.
which is basically what the market had on this all this year until it became known they would have to hit the reset button.
basically, brand new company as of tomorrow
Yes!!!
EHTH probably 50M adjusted earnings in 2019....$75M 2020. Should be in the $800M MC range at the moment...PPS $40 IMO
most of the earnings are Medicare, but, they may ramp up short term earnings to $10M out of thin air though.
Medicare profits can be used to build whatever they want...like short term health or other...
short term health ins giving a boost. not the main show for EHTH. I completely missed on HIIQ which I represent look at their chart!
When the q comes out tomorrow. Even if 1b os mc is only 50m
Only able to get 93 million subscribed to and you can see it in the filing on July 10th
Amc dropping on superuser subs of their a list lol
If they did the 3 per month cap last year would be 1.5m subs and worth $1b enroute to $10b. As it is, reset button here. Burn would have been near 0 by now.
Brand new company here aug 15. Lots sticking with them. Resume growth q4
that will be addressed later this year long time for that. SIRI was under 1.00 for a year.
HMNY perfectly situated now. 1.7 tix per sub, but new model brings it down to 1.0. Even if it settles at 1.1, they are in a good spot to raise sub to 10.95 to cover the .1
There is a perfect model balance in here somewhere...took nflx years to find theirs
brand new company as of this Wednesday so lets hope
3 hours ago
I saw the Meg opening weekend because it was one of only two movies supported today by movie pass (the other was Slenderman) in my area. I think at least some of the box office success should go to them for their promotion on the movie pass app. I did like the lighter, less gory treatment.
https://deadline.com/2018/08/the-meg-box-office-win-marketing-shark-film-1202444293/#respond
I agree. They are fixing issues. Everyone knows that.
Looks like meg was double expectations of 20m and slender 40% more of the 8m expectation. Wonder if mp will post what its numbers were for those. Obviously mp was part of that success so question is how much
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4426&p=.htm
Meg and slender the 2 movies mp limited too this weekend both beat studio expectations by 25% developing
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/
Burn is 30, 20, 15, 10, 5, 2, 1, 0 something like that forward
The 93m that started 3 weeks ago is supposed ti hold them to profit time. Everyone is converting with few cancels. Burn reducing monthly started already.
Nearly everyone is staying with mp. They know company is adjusting. Nflx debuted steaming to jumbled pictures for a long time. Mp is bringing feet to the theaters...as intended. People must convert their accounts by wednesday. Super users gone or limited to 3 per month.
Who knew...slenderman getting a boost due to mp
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4426&p=.htm
Dollar volume last 2 weeks is $145m i think 750m and 50m raised
They sold 200m over .10 just last week?
Dont know how people think bk here they are sticking 90m in the bank starting last week and burn is 20m monthly and lowering. If you grow 15000 % in 12 months that would lead to imperfections. 150x growth in 350 days something like that. Soon as they report any good info any of the 90m offering left will be eaten
On wed when they report i bet you see 2.5m subs still and the 15th is the day subs had to convert or leave. Guess is 75% stay with mp. Mp doesnt want superusers those are folks eho have no job or students or people who look to exploit a system. If you see 5 to 8 movies each month at the movies you ought to be a critic
Of the 1.8b volume last 10 days you think how many sold? I say 750m. In the first 3 days the outstanding was 2m yet 600m traded because the got 200m off at least and this was ladt week over .10
Its the super users over 3 per month who were 40% of the cost. They were at 1.7 movies per sub. They feel now they will get to 1 movie per sub by 2019. Of the 1 per sub it probably will be 20 percent who see 3 per month 50% who see 1 per month and 20% who see 1 every other month. You want new low users each month who gradually become higher users.
Most moviegoers are your 5 time per year consumer so its a massive pool. Some will join mp and will go more often due to 9.95 cost. Once you pool a group like this at 25m subs you are greatly increasing foottraffic at the movies which leads to more ad dollars among other things.
I think they have dropped around 750m at .08 ave last 10 days as a guess.
Burn was 22m monthly may june july. Should be 15m aug. Down to 0 burn early 2019.
The 93m cash raise on the market started post split. That cash projects to hold them over til profitability.
Heavy users cancelling mp now.
Sub of movies is clearly in demand. Upward from here.
Even if they only get to say 15m subs interested in 3 per month that is a lot. They they can go overseas and make it 30m.
Big profits per user at 4 per month revenue on ads, data, movie and concession kickbacks.
30m users probably 2 per month profit per which is 60m per month or 700m annual. Nflx is 2b profit annual. So one third of profit of nflx here potential and it a rapid timeframe.
Analysts had a $1.6B MC target on this in May....MC right now probably $50M
Whole idea here is to increase viewership at the movies. It will for sure do that.
I have a sub. App is great. They will build in concession discounts in time. Smaller independent theaters first. You will see discounts offerd by local restaurants shortly too. If you give me 20% off my $5 soda im happy.
thank the millennials, its not just Triton that wants MP to succeed...we all get rich
that's a big tell, they wanted nearly 20% of the company at the time.
you will see as soon as they publish the O/S tomorrow or with the Q, you will see many funds buy 9.99%.
my estimate is 1B O/S, so yes, you will see many funds buy 100M shares
they grabbed nearly 10% of the company....what was the market cap when they did so, it was at least $20M so it was at least $2M they put in....
told ya man, companies trying to grab up to 10% here
funds will look for the O/S so they can buy 9.99%
my estimate now is 1.25B O/S sold at about .08 ave for the $92.8M.
Valuation now pegged to 1.25B O/S. So if you figure a $1B valuation then near $1.00 PPS as an example
it's only $92.8M they have underwriting for is what I am saying. no more than $92.8M raised at this time. based on TV interviews yesterday that is the amount they need until profitability.