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Maybe white governors in CA because most of the Hispanics in California are illegals and can't vote or....maybe they can going forward from what I've heard.
Let's look at California. Comparing the 1980 census to the 2010 censusbureau , the population of non-hispanic whites has actually shrunk slightly from just under 16 million to about 15 million. The number of hispanics in California in the same period has grown from 4.5 million in 1980 to 14 million in 2010. I'll bet that today, the hispanic population well exceeds the white population. Do you think that most of them entered the country legally? I rather doubt it.
from Wikipedia
Population of California according to racial/ethnic group 1960–2010[42][43]
Racial/ethnic
group Census 1960 Census 1970 Census 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010
Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number %
Non-Hispanic Whites 14,455,230 92.0 17,761,032 89.0 15,763,992 66.6 17,029,126 57.2 15,816,790 46.7 14,938,836 40.1
Hispanics 4,541,300 19.2 7,687,938 25.8 10,966,556 32.4 14,007,487 37.6
Blacks 883,861 5.6 1,400,143 7.0 1,819,281 7.7 2,208,801 7.4 2,181,926 6.4 2,309,745 6.2
Asians 318,376 2.0 552,364 2.8 1,819,281 5.3 2,845,659 9.6 3,697,513 10.9 4,843,014 13.0
American Indians and Alaska Natives 39,014 0.2 91,018 0.5 201,369 0.9 242,164 0.8 333,346 1.0 372,539 1.0
Hi Chris, What I have read is that there are less than 700 miles of fences along the entire 2000 mile border. That leaves a whole lot with nothing at all. Much of what is there can be crossed by pedestrians without much difficulty too.
https://ballotpedia.org/Fact_check/How_many_miles_of_fence_stand_along_the_U.S.-Mexico_border%3F
I think your estimate of 10,000 people sneaking through the border every month is also low. Nobody knows for sure of course since they aren't caught but I've seen estimates that as many as half of them sneak through without being apprehended. If true, that would mean 30-40,000/ month sneak through.
Too many of those also bring drugs across the border.
34,000 people were apprehended illegally crossing the border in June alone. No one knows how many more sneaked through without being caught. But there are simply not enough people to patrol the entire border.
We have an approximately 2000 mile border with Mexico and there are approx. 20,000 border patrol agents. Of course, not all of them are working at any one time and many are also doing paperwork or on administrative duties. Say 1 in 5 are patrolling the border at any one time. They also patrol in pairs (or more) for safety, so that leaves 2500 pairs of agents to patrol the border or a little more than 1 pair per mile.
No way can they safely stop illegal traffic with that.
How about we just build the wall.
CCS I saw that comment on margins but I didn't really see it as a negative. They have been guiding for 20-22% margins all year and so far have beaten that. I think they are just being conservative.
NWHM did put out a disappointing report. They only earned 1c vs 3c analyst estimates and way down from 7c eps a year ago. Gross margins were only 12.6% and the company is forecasting about the same in sales for Q3. Backlog in $$ was also down about 14%, yoy. I think the maket in California where they build has weakened as CA is a high tax state so it is more affected by the change in rules for tax deductibility limits. It could still be a possible acquisition target as it is selling well under BV but I went ahead and puked out my remaining shares on this report.
CCS Sure seems like these stocks are controlled by algorithms. Some selling brings on more from the computers. Added some shares at 29.70. Will add more if it drops lower.
TSLA Becoming profitable because they are pushing out so many of the model 3s at the expense of quality control and servicing of existing vehicles? I remember reading they haven't built any of the base model 3s at that $35K starting price. Did Elon say anything about those.
Sure am tempted to short at $350 but sounds like no shares are available anyway.
CCS Surprised to see it leading the group down with that strong report. I also readd the transcript of the CC on SA and didn't see any negatives there either. Company reported that sales in all areas are strong.
If it drops below 30, I'll be adding shares.
TSLA up despite losses being larger than expected. I swear this stock has at least 99 lives which is why I stopped shorting it.
Tesla Earnings: Shares up 3% Despite Disappointing Bottom Line -- Barron's Blog
4:26 pm ET August 1, 2018 (Dow Jones) Print
By Teresa Rivas
Shares of Tesla (TSLA) are higher in late trading after the auto maker reported a mixed second quarter.
Tesla reported a loss of $3.06 a share, missing analyst forecasts for a loss of $2.88 a share, on sales of $4 billion, which was just ahead of predictions for $3.99 billion. Model 3 gross margins turned slightly positive in the quarter, and the company reaffirmed plans to be profitable in the third and fourth quarters.
Homebuilders keep reporting strong results and outlooks. DHI reported a 10c eps beat a few days ago. This morning MDC reported a big 27c beat, with Q2 earnings of $1.12. Stock is up 5% today. I like this one and it is the only one that pays a good dividend at 4%.
Mgmt comment:
Mr. Mizel concluded, "We are very optimistic about the future of our Company given our operational performance this quarter, our recent land acquisition activity and our strong balance sheet. The strategic initiatives we implemented over the last several quarters put us on a path to better consistency in our operating results. The effectiveness of these initiatives was evident in the second quarter of 2018, and we are excited for what the future holds."
FTSI Also added 40% in one account at 10.86. Went to add it to another account and boom, it was right back up to 11.48. That makes more sense to me. Action during the CC will be interesting.
CAI at $25 AH, which is up about $2 from its close.
CAI Intl beats by $0.06, beats on revs
8 minutes agoBriefing.com
Related Investments
CAI International Inc
Last 3 Months
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.97 per share, $0.06 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.91; revenues rose 27.8% year/year to $105.71 mln vs the $100.7 mln Capital IQ Consensus."The impact of the discussions regarding tariffs has not had an impact on container demand to date but has created some uncertainty around future global trade growth. If tariffs were to be permanently implemented and overall tariff levels were to increase, we would expect supply chain disruption as international companies adjust their supply chains. Some level of export-oriented manufacturing would likely move to other countries not affected by the tariffs such as countries in South East Asia. These changes in supply chain are a positive for CAI as our customers will need more equipment to adjust for the supply chain inefficiencies created by sourcing changes. We believe that CAI remains well positioned to operate during this time of uncertainty, with 91% of our on-lease and committed owned container fleet being on long-term leases with an average remaining lease term of 56 months. In addition, we have worked with our customers over the past several years to improve redelivery terms ensuring that equipment is returned to high demand locations which will provide us with better opportunities to release the units.
Back to News
FTSI also added some today ahead of earnings. Even bought some cheap Aug call options for frosting on the cake. While FTSI remains in the bargain basement category, I've noticed more strength of late from other companies in the field, led by HCLP. I also saw where FRAC is adding more rigs in the permian basin, calling the issues there "transitory".
Hopefully my FTSI cake won't go flat tomorrow.
Here's a recent SA article on frac sands stocks:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4190394-frac-sand-story-strengthens-add-positions
CAI and TRTN are strong today on reports that the US and China have resumed trade talks. I also expect a good report from CAI. Ironically, I think many exporters have been moving up their shipments of products to beat potential new tariffs.
Today's run-up is tempting but I still think I'll hold into the report.
AWX Hostile takeover is really a joke considering that the the AWX CEO has 67% of the stock voting power and doesn't plan on divesting his stake, per the article.
Apple and many of the others need to wake up and start contributing more to Repubs and less to Dems. On average, Apple gives about 10X as much to the Dems as the Republicans. How stupid is that?
TRTN I think that sooner or later these trade wars will get settled and then the stock can take off. My target keeps changing with changing conditions but I like the fact that earnings estimates keep trending higher, even though the SP hasn't.
TRTN I did lighten up as I expect today's big rally to fade, but I still like the stock.
Good news is that I checked the dividends I've recieved and no foreign tax was withheld. either in a regular or an IRA account.
AWX Quite the chart, nowhere for 3 years and then boom!
I'm also surprised that the buyers keep rolling in after the huge runup on no news. I would love to know what mintbroker is doing right now.
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/AMEX/avalon-AWX/chart/real-time
Great digging on Mintbroker hweb. Since they are in the Bahamas, I wonder if the SEC even has jurisdiction over them. By the time the SEC can get any cooperation from the Bahaman government, these scammers will be long gone.
They don't even show a real address on those SEC filings. Only two cross streets are shown, I suppose to make it harder to find them if anyone tries.
Will be very interesting to see how this all plays out on Monday. No doubt, this one will come crashing down again, probably soon. Best of luck.
NRZ One of my best performing high yielders, is down about 3% today despite a beat in earnings. Investors may be comparing the new earnings report to a year ago, when earnings were substantially more. Coverage is definitely tighter on the 50c dividend now too.
Still dcratching my head as to whether it might be a good time to exit.
New Residential Investment (NYSE:NRZ): Q2 EPS of $0.58 beats by $0.03.
Net interest income of $269.89M (-24.4% Y/Y) beats by $70.52M.
Press Release
AMD closing in on a new 52 week high. Surprised to see this semi stock up 14% now after a small 1c beat in earnings. Revs were way up though. Maybe it will help get other semi stocks heading back in the right direction again.
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD): Q2 EPS of $0.14 beats by $0.01.
Revenue of $1.76B (+53.0% Y/Y) beats by $40M.
Homebuilders DHI reported a beat and is up 8% today. PHM also reported a beat but is down 2.8% right now. Go figure.
MHO CC transcript is on SA now. Mgmt sounds positive going forward. They were asked about the big drop in builder stocks yesterday and called it a crazy over-reaction to a miss in new home sales numbers yesterday. They expect the number will be revised. Backlog continues to grow nicely. Their guidance maintains expected margins for the year at 20-21%, despite being at the bottom of that range in the just reported quarter due to cost pressures. Stock is making a recovery from ealier losses again this morning and is nearly back to even now. Very surprised it is selling for below book value which is now at $28.56
BCEI Don't fault anyone for taking some quick profits but I see that BCEI isn't actually added to the SP small cap index until Wednesday morning.
Wouldn't this tend to make the stock continue to rise as index funds have until then to add the stock to their portfolios?
There is a Calexit plan to get California on the road to becoming a separate county working to get on on the ballot in 2020.
http://www.latimes.com/sd-calexit-back-again-20180424-htmlstory.html
This November, a plan to divide California into 3 seperate states will be on the ballot. In essense, that would give CA 3 times the represetation in the US Senate, although I'm not atall sure all 3 states would be blue for the dems. How California could ever support 3 separate state government bureacracys when they can't even support one is a real mystery to me though. Agreeing on how their huge debts will be divided up should be entertaining too.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-california-split-three-states-20180612-story.html
I think you're being generous, Al. None of that guy's tweet makes any sense to me.
He complains about Trump's lack of knowledge of economics but he's a rock musician. More that fair question is what does he know about economics??
Mikel Frans Jollett (born May 21, 1974)[1] is an American musician and author, best known as the frontman for the Los Angeles-based indie rock band the Airborne Toxic Event
MHO Big jump at the open was quickly erased and the entire sector is down due to that disappointing new home sales report from the census bureau. I've always questioned the reliability of that report. It is very volatile from month to month but even more, it partly relies on voluntary reporting from builders. It reports when contracts to buy are written, not when the sale is closed.
I'm more interested in hearing what the builders say when they report their earnings and say in their CCs. MHO's CC is after the close. TPH, DHI, and PHM all report in the next day or so.
CEO's comments in MHO's ER also sound positive to me. Doesn't matter right now though as twitchy investors fingers are hitting the sell button.:
Mr. Schottenstein continued, "We ended the quarter with record-high shareholders' equity of $816 million, an increase of 18% from 2017's second quarter, book value per share of $28.56, and a homebuilding debt to capital ratio of 47%. With the strength of our backlog and planned new community openings, we are positioned to have a very good 2018. We will continue to focus on increasing profitability, growing our market share, and investing in attractive land opportunities."
FTSI No doubt they will need to set aside a reserve as a charge against earnings to cover estimated costs from the award. But I would expect that insurance will cover most of it. That article included a link to another jury award of $90 million against a trucking company for another accident. The insurance will cover all but $10 million of that one. With that, it looks like liability insurance rates will be heading higher in Texas. A $100 million award for a guy who said he wasn't even injured after the accident sure seems excessive.
I took a stab at the falling knife and added more shares.
PVAC Strange sounding PR coming from a company whose stock has more than doubled in the last few months.
FTSI Yep hard to believe this one is down 5% with HCLP so strong today. Like you said, earnings are out next week so I decided to take the gamble and just bought a bunch ahead of those earnings.
Hopefully, we are seeing a double bottom here.
Al44: I wasn't implying that Paige lied about the China hack. I just was wondering who the source was since what she said was all behind closed doors.
I also don't see where any other media has picked up the story. No surprise as 90% of them hate Trump.
Housing starts were weaker than expected in June. Some believe that higher costs and an uptick in interest rates is having a negative effect.
I think the drop is only temporary. The number tends to be volatile going from month to month. Much of the drop was in multifamily starts (vs single family). Also permits were actually up slightly from the previous month. Also, with strong demand, I think builders were more anxious to break ground earlier than normal this year.
Homebuilder stocks have moved down on the news though.
http://www.builderonline.com/money/economics/starts-permits-down-sharply-in-june_o
CCS MHO TOL LGIH LEN
Housing starts were weaker than expected in June. Some believe that higher costs and an uptick in interest rates is having a negative effect.
I think the drop is only temporary. The number tends to be volatile going from month to month. Much of the drop was in multifamily starts (vs single family). Also permits were actually up slightly from the previous month.
Homebuilder stocks have moved down on the news though.
http://www.builderonline.com/money/economics/starts-permits-down-sharply-in-june_o
I sure would like to know the source for Lisa Paige's statement that it was China, not Russia that hacked the DNC servers. Unfortunately, her testimony was behind closed congressional doors.
The Dems are so much better at leaking this stuff when they want to.
I had googled it and it confirmed what I had said:
According to the most recent estimates from NATO, the United States spent $618 billion on its own defense last year after adjusting for inflation — or 3.57 percent of its G.D.P. That’s not quite 4 percent, as Mr. Trump said.
Collectively, defense spending by all NATO members in 2017 came to $917 billion. That means the United States’ spending represented 67 percent of the total.
One should count total nato spending, not just one portion of it. We have something like 22 military bases in Germany which are for their protection as well as ours and everyone elses. Since Germany seems to want to depend on Russia for so much of their energy needs with that new pipeline maybe we should just pull out and wish them luck.
I also don't know where you get that 22% number, maybe it comes out of then air. The article you linked also talks about the 67% that I have been talking about.
Crickets, ha
Did you even try that NYTimes link? When I did it was a broken link, just like you guys facts often are.
I had already responded earlier anyway. Yes, I agree that Trump did stretch the truth but the fact remains that the US pays over 2/3rds of the cost of NATO and we pay a much larger % percentage of our GDP than Germany and others do.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=142121449
FTSI I've held off on buying more than a token position due mainly to its negative book value. But I have to say it is sure getting attractive even with that down here.
Market is actually holding up better than I thought it would. Maybe it is becoming innoculated against the trade war rhetoric.
I did lighten up on MU in premarket as it could well be in China's crosshairs for retaliatory measures. Still bullish on it though.
The USA contributes about 2/3rds of the Nato budget or about $650 billion of the $900 billion budget. Germany, in contrast, only contributed $40 billion.
In terms of GDP. the USA contributed 3.6% of our GDP to NATO, while Germany only contributed 1.2% of their GDP. Canada is an even bigger slacker at 1%. Each country is supposed to contribute 2% of their GDP. The USA is making up the slack for many of the partners.
Some of you should do a little fact checking before you post garbage.
https://money.cnn.com/2017/05/25/news/nato-funding-explained-trump/index.html
https://money.cnn.com/2016/07/08/news/nato-summit-spending-countries/index.html
Did you read the near 2 year old article you linked? It says in part:
"It’s unclear what kind of information was stolen from the RNC, and how much of it, just as the motive is unknown."
The later Wall Street Journal article I linked earlier clarifies that only a small portion of RNC emails were able to be hacked.
Obviously, the dirt ws found at the DNC and around HRC. No surprise in that.
Now back to the economy.