TDAM to Schwab transition. One of my accounts shifted to Schwab last year. The rest will transition in two weeks. I also noticed that I lost all my balance history prior to the changeover. At TDAM, the history went back to 2016, making it easy to see how my accounts have done over the years. Overall, I do not like the Schwab website and wish I could have stuck with TDAmeritrade.

MHO stock up 4% on an 82c beat in eps. New contracts were also up 17% which bodes well for future quarters too. Another home builder, PHM had also reported strong results yesterday. I opened a position in FOR after a recent discussion of it on this board . This is a land development company that sells most of its lots to DHI. FOR sells about 90% of its lots to DHI, the rest to other builders.. That amounts to about 15% of DHI's lots but they want to get that over 30%. That would double FOR sales, and presumably profits. Many builders are pursuing a land light approach, buying ready to go lots from others rather than developing their own. Another builder, NVR, pioneered this approach over 30 years ago and has been very successful. 30 years ago, NVR sold for $6/ share, today it is over $7,000/share!

RMAX Glad to see this one has a strong start for you. I find their income statement quite confusing. One place it shows net losses of 60c/share in Q4 and $3.81 for last year. Then after adjustments, it changes to an income of 30c eps in Q4 and $1.30 eps for the year.

Thanks R59 for that long list of low PE small caps. Amazing how many bank stocks are in there.

Exactly nelson I have a bunch of cash parked in one of Schwab's non sweep MM funds. I keep some cash on hand so I can always buy something without delay. My rep is going to get back to me.

Nelson, My Schwab account cash is sitting in cash earning zero. I called my rep and he said only managed accounts are eligible for that high yield sweep. I am thinking you have a self directed account. Is there a name for that MM account your cash is moved to and from with that automatic sweep?

CPE Not surprised there is takeover talk as this one looks undervalued. Sure would be fun watching those shorts (24% of float) get burned too.

Home builders are mostly up today as several are reporting strong results that beat analyst estimated. Surprising considering how much mortgage rates have risen over the last year. CCS is up over 7% today, reporting Q3 eps of $2.58 vs analyst estimate of $1.59. My favorite, MHO reported quarterly earnings of $4.82 vs estimate of $4.27.New contracts were up 50% so sales are not slowing down either.Their cancellation rate dropped to 10% from 17% a year ago. BV increased to $87, up about 25% from a year ago.
PHM, MDC, TMHC, and TPH also beat analyst estimates. The home builders are buying down interest rates on mortgages, while holding or even increasing prices despite a reduction in some of their input costs 9mainly lumber). I don't expect builder stocks to take off again while increasing mortgage rates are in the news and increasing. Still, they are setting up for a big rally whenever rates settle down.

Interesting conversation on brokerages. Gilead, interesting that you put your clients money into more illiquid stocks that TDAM has restrictions on. I remember years ago I had a conversation with a portfolio manager. Showing her my portfolio, she was very impressed by its performance but said she could never buy stock in many of the positions I had for her clients. If they went south, she would be probably be sued for speculating with her clients money.
I have accounts at TDAM, Merrill with 1 now transferred to Schwab. I like TDAM's platform and customer service he best. Some of that may be that I am not as familiar with the Scwab platform. Merrill is the most restrictive on stocks traded, too often requiring a code to be texted to me which takes precious time. Merrill does offer the most choices in higher yield MM funds. All my remaining TDAM accounts will transfer to Schwab next March.

CPE I like this one too and it sure looks undervalued. What I don't get is why the shorts are all over this one like bees to honey. The short interest is near 25%!

GCT Also surprised at the big comeback today. I tried to short a small position but no shares are available at TdAm.

GCT I also looked into taking a position here but then read an article in Seeking Alpha dated 8/31 and titled
"GigaCloud: Wait For U.S. Domicile".

Boy was that guy right. He also pointed out that a Chinese firm was their auditor. That alone was enough to make me steer clear of it. My subscription to SA sure paid off on this one. What I don't understand is how they even got a listing on the Nasdaq?

One thing I like about Merrill Edge is that they provide access to a whole suite of money market funds from Blackrock and others with current yields provided on a pdf. TMCXX is my top holding in the group with the highest yield, currently 5.36% as abh noted.

https://olui2.fs.ml.com/Publish/Content/application/pdf/GWMOL/ICCRateSheet.pdf

Hweb, my Rep set it up so that my 4 remaining TdAm accounts are linked together so I can check on all my accounts now. I do have to sign onto 2 websites to do that so it is not as convenient and it is not what I was told would happen. Good to know you are happy with Schwab as my intro to them is not what I expected.

TDAM brokerage accounts transfer to Schwab. My accounts at TdAm were all supposed to transfer last weekend. Yesterday when I opened my Schwab acct, I found that only one had transferred. That was the main one that all the others are linked to so I was temporarily unable to access them. After talking to my rep, I found that the rest would not transfer until March of next year. So now I have to open two sites to look at all my accounts. Piss poor implementation if you ask me, and I told him so, especially after I was told more than once that they all would transfer together.

Homebuilders have been the the strongest part of my portfolio. Besides BZH; CCS, MTH, MHO and MDC have also provided big beats and strong guidance this week. Counterintuitive, but the Fed actually did them a favor by jacking up interest rates over the last year. People who locked in those 3-4% mortgage rates aren't selling so people who want to buy have little choice but to buy new construction. The economy has also cooled off enough to reduce supply chain headaches and even reduce component costs of lumber. Prices have also remained firm. Some areas are even starting to raise prices again.

VTLE sure looks dirt cheap with a fwd PE of about 2. Yet I see there is a huge short position of 24% of the float. Does anyone know what the shorts are hanging their hat on here?

BZH is up 10% today on top of recent gains. Looks like an analyst raised their price target and rating on this home builder. Day late and dollar short as usual. BZH remains cheap with a PE of 4 and well under book value (.77x P/B). The only one I know of that is cheaper is LSEA with a P/B of .52.

I did lighten up on the group earlier this year because I had become very overweight the group. I am still overweight and even more so with the run up in the group. Largest holdings are in CCS and MHO and with more in BZH, TOL, TMHC, MTH, LSEA, and PHM. Good times are rolling for the Builders despite a big increase in mortgage rates with a shortage of about 1.5 million housing units that can only be filled by new construction. Their outlook can continue to be bright for years.

SRTS I puked my shares out premarket. It is ridiculous that the CEO blames a 70% drop in sales on "inflation"!

Funny how they pre-announced the previous quarter, which was strong and then used the run-up in the SP to sell insider shares. Now, sales fall through the floor and not a peep from them. In fact, they made it sound like things were fine in their February CC. Now they say that sales have been weak since December. Now watch them use this big sell off to load up on cheap options. Rinse and repeat. They are based in Boca Raton, FL which is typically the center of the universe for scammy companies.

Lodging stocks: Marriot MAR came out with a very strong report and outlook today and the stock is up about 3.5% on a very red market day. I've been buying some reits in the sector today including INN RLJ and PK .Unlike MAR, these are all near 52 week lows and selling well under BV. They have also recently increased or reinstated dividends. People are tired of staying home and want to get out and travel.

NYCB Interesting that on TD Ameritrades website (which is in the process of being taken over by Schwab) show the average rating of 14 analysts who follow it is a strong buy. Market Edge does show it as avoid but I believe that is based on technicals. It probably says to avoid all regional bank stocks as they have all been very weak.

TOL This high end homebuilders reported a nice beat in Q4 earnings at $5.63 vs $4.01 estimate. They also provided guidance for 2023 with Earnings at $8-9 per share. They expect margins to remain strong at 27% although volume to be down- no surprise with much higher mortgage rates now. They did say that of rates get below 6% that many buyers will return as there remains a shortage of homes.

Stock is up 5% and it looks like it is also pulling other home builders up too.

Home builders are cheap but I couldn't help but lighten my positions in them. The market rally is way overdone today as inflation remains too high and that trillions in govt spending will help keep inflation that way.

SRTS Sure seems like an over reaction to a 2c miss in eps. Medical device company is profitable and growing. Over $2 per share in cash and no debt.

I just picked up a bunch at 7.01

What that is all about is that the mayor of El Paso is a democrat who hates Trump so he billed him for what he claims were the security costs for a rally Trump held there while he was President. Sitting Presidents do not pay for those costs. In fact, former President Obama is doing several political rallies this month and I very much doubt he is expected to pay for security costs at those rallies.

El Paso has much bigger worries than what they claim to have spent on security for a rally that Trump held there back in 2019 when he was President. El Paso is spending $10 million per month on illegals now.

https://nypost.com/2022/09/22/el-paso-could-spend-10-million-this-month-alone-on-migrants/

Thanks to Joe Biden!

Bank issued CDs are an attractive option too. They are federally insured up to $250,000 per bank. Today I am seeing 4% offered on 6 month CDs and slightly more on longer term. I've been told that one advantage of treasuries over CDs though is that they are exempt from state income taxes.

Hopefully all of us talking about safety and bond yields means we are nearing a low in the market, lol.

LEN I was surprised that they expect new orders in Q4 to be higher than they were last quarter despite higher mortgage rates. LEN and most all of the other builders are now trading below tangible book value. There remains a large shortage of housing as evidenced by rapidly rising rents.

LEN is now trading up about 2% as investors reassess their latest report.

MHO has a very conservative management team. They have focused on paying down debt. I think their only debt now is $700 million at 4.5% not due until 2028 and after. One knock on them is they don't provide guidance like most others do. With their stock deeply discounted to BV, I think the no brainer move for them is buy back more stock. They have bought some back and should do more. At current price, someone should buy them out.

Most builders only pay small dividends, if any. MDC does has a good dividend yield at 5.5%.

MHO one of my fav homebuilders, reported another big beat in eps. Q2 EPS was $4.79, a $1.01 beat with revs in line. Book value is up to $66 now vs. SP of only $45. No surprise that new orders were down 20% with sharply higher mortgage rates but the dollar value of backlog was still up 9% due to higher prices, yoy. Seems like good news with the recognition that the market has cooled off but there remains an undersupply situation after more than a decade of underbuilding but the stock is pretty much flat today.

Robert H. Schottenstein, Chief Executive Officer and President, commented, "At a time of rapidly changing market conditions, we had a very strong quarter highlighted by record quarterly net income of $137 million, 27% better than a year ago, and a 34% increase in earnings per diluted share. These record earnings resulted in our return on equity improving to 27%. Our revenues increased 8% to a second quarter record $1 billion, with gross margins improving by 220 basis points to 27.3%, and SG&A improving by 70 basis points to 9.7%, all leading to a pretax income margin of 17.5%. Our backlog sales value at June 30 increased 9% to a second quarter record $2.7 billion."

Mr. Schottenstein continued, "During the quarter, we began experiencing a moderation in demand due to the unprecedented rapid rise in interest rates and continued inflationary pressures across the economy. Clearly, there is growing uncertainty on a number of fronts and choppy market conditions may persist for some time. Still, our financial condition is very strong. We ended the quarter with record shareholders' equity of $1.8 billion, an increase of 24% over last year, book value of $66 per share, cash of $189 million, zero borrowings on our $550 million credit facility, and a homebuilding debt to capital ratio of 28%. Additionally, housing fundamentals remain solid with an undersupply of available homes and favorable demographics. Looking ahead, we believe we are well positioned to manage through these changing and uncertain times given the strength of our balance sheet, low debt levels, record backlog sales value, diverse product offerings and well-located communities."

oil/gas stocks- Many are down 6% or so while crude oil, nat gas, and the stock market is flat. Did I miss some news or are bears just on the rampage again?

CPE SD

I've also been hitting the buy button on oil stocks like CPE, LPI, EPSN.. They sure look oversold now to me. I really don't see Biden becoming fossil fuel friendly no matter how high gas prices go.

LEN Interesting that they guiding for 16-18K new orders next quarter Q3. That compares with 17.6K new orders in the just completed quarter. Not much of a drop with the big increase in mortgage rates we've seen,

Almost all the home builders are now selling for less than book value, including LEN , an industry giant with relatively low debt ratios. None expect the market to fall off a cliff like in 2008. Smaller builders with higher debt ratios are even cheaper. BZH is selling at only .42X book value and a PE of 2.

NRZ Sure surprised to see it down 20% in a week. I thought its huge $600 billion+ MSR portfolio would continue to go up in value as interest rates rise. Now trading at only 72% of BV and yielding 11% with a well covered dividend.

Piper's negative report on it appears to have done much of the damage, in unison with a stock market recently in free fall. Does anyone know the details of their negative report.

TOL This luxury home builder beat estimates again.
Q2 GAAP EPS of $1.85 beats by $0.25.
Revenue of $2.2B (+14.0% Y/Y) beats by $80M.
Net signed contract value was $3.1 billion, up 1% compared to FY 2021’s second quarter; contracted homes were 2,874, down 18%.
Backlog value was $11.7 billion at second quarter end, up 35% compared to FY 2021’s second quarter; homes in backlog were 11,768, up 16%.

They commented in their CC that it remains a strong market even with the dramatic rise in interest rates. They are still limiting sales in many communities and in some cases using best and highest offer which is boosting margins. The stock is up 6% to $47 as I write this. This is still below their expected BV of $53 by the end of their fiscal year. In fact the whole sector is doing well today, no doubt buoyed by this report.

NYCB Skillz, good point on the dividend. This merger was announced over a year ago and I think it still is waiting for regulator approval. Since FBC only pays a very small dividend, that eats up much of the difference if this drags on for another 6 months.

NYCB is offering 4.0151 shares of its stock in their acquisition of FBC.
$9.35x 4.0151= $37.54

With FBC trading at $35.76 now, wouldn't it be better to buy FBC here, assuming the merger goes through?

BZH Great numbers plus they are trading way under book value too (.68X BV)
They did sound more cautious in their CC than most other builders. With that, I still think their $6 eps number is conservative. I was surprised to hear that numerous lenders are offering 8-9 month locks on mortgage interest rates when we know rates are going to continue to rise. The only question is how fast.

All of the builders I've seen are beating estimates here. They had a strong day yesterday but are mostly flat today. Even BZH with its huge beat. I can't blame investors from shying away from the group due to memories of 2008 crash. But this time is different as there are only 25% of the homes on the market that there were back then. Plus a 1.5 million home shortage due to underbuilding over the last decade. Some of these dirt cheap builders should be bought out.

R59, re exuberant house prices. I read articles like this and also watch videos on YouTube warning that a housing crash is coming later this year.

I also read virtually every earnings release and conf call from the homebuilders. It's two different worlds. Yes, home prices are running higher and higher. Normally builders would step right in to meet demand but they can't even keep us with orders due to supply chain and labor shortages. So they keep raising prices to ration demand. Many people believe rising mortgage rates will kill demand, yet several of the builders have done stress tests and don't see any real drop off in demand until rates hit 6% or so. Even then buyers have different options like going to smaller house plans, fewer options or ARM mortgages.

Basically there is a shortage of 1.5 million homes because builders did not keep up with demand for over 10 years. So now we have home builders trading at or near 52 week lows while they are earning record high profits. Analysts expect profits to increase again this year and also next year as well (2023). Investors like wade aren't buying it so we have the group trading at record low PEs. MHO , for example, is trading at a PE under 3 and also well below book value (.78X BV). That's crazy cheap IMO.

I'm not selling at these bargain basement prices but not adding either; not until investor perceptions appear to have bottomed.

LSEA Nice run since earnings. Does anyone know the terms of those warrants LSEAW?