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I agree.
I keep watching waiting for the next week or two...
AVXL tuesday,same as monday
stalling zig zag gyrating in a small space, killing time. at a balance point around 18. It could get plunged down 1 dollar to target 17. or it could bounce up to target 18.75 or 19. Playing the odds for some global economic instability/beginning the collapse, or whatever it would be called, a rally to 19 or if it has time, to 20, might be the target to trim some profit ahead of the market dive. Looking at chart targets in the current cycle, at 19/20/21 area waiting, against the time remaining before the global collapse events, if/when they happen, war triggers, 3 Gorges dam collapse triggers, Bitcoin crash triggers, Election fraud announcement triggers, I believe it is all orchestrated as part of the Reset Plan. Its just a question of timing. Late October? early November? its anyone's guess, but the insiders have been saying October.
Can AVXL rally one more time here
Good chartwork
I appreciate what youre looking at .
My target measurements are seeing 4600 area as well. But its getting suspenseful as October winds down and the market is climbing into the no mans land at the top.
Are they going to just keep pushing the market price up until the very last minute?
The new week begins
I'm still waiting for AVXL to make one more rally hopefully this week, before the market collapse is triggered. Would it reach 19 or 20 ?
A collapse is expected soon.in October. Playing the odds here. And how much down would AVXL fall... 10,9,8 area ?
Today's price action continues Friday's up down small range capped... the rally targets I'm looking for is 18.70 area, 19.00 area 19.20 19.50/ 75 maybe 20.
Area. perfect for a 50% haircut to 10.
storage file AVXL
for reference
BUT...what about the market crash
Intel clues are suggesting soon to come.
yes, I just focus on
fishing the bottom targets to buy. and sell some trading shares at the major rally resistance. swing trading. but AVXL is a long hold for me.
The good ole S+P just climbs up and up without a care in the world.
Intraday AVXL
bounced upward to retest the 18.25 top area. pulling back down to test support now.
pullback time?
Thanks very much ,Falconer
for the good research and commentary.
yes,I agree
a wave 5 to test the top. Elliott wave can be at times tricky to examine. since a wave completion can actually come in 7 waves even 9, before its finished. its not always just 5,Ive found more often it runs 7.I also find that the controlled S+P ,like its doing now, when it climbs back, in this giant constant upwave, has always followed technical math patterns, like its totally run by computer algos, and they hold the shallower 38% retrace more often, and usually break thru the 5th wave target... but when I study the AVXL pattern, AVXL makes its rally, and very often ends after the wave 3, when it should keep going to wave 5, it stalls out along the wave 3 and sideways wave 4 and then gets bled down again.
Heres something I would add
to your picture. The lines you draw look good. now it shows a rally to the pivot resistance peaks,around 4480,in that zone.
As Ive evolved my own chart analysis methods, Ive used all the basic tools, and eventually found a few tools, more esoteric that appeal to me and I learned to get a feel for what they can say. The Fibonacci tools, the ichimoku cloud, and I like to superimpose them on an Elliott wave pattern.
If you took your chart and applied the Fib retrace tool. make it a projection measurement. (162% of the wave 1 distance) and then superimpose the Elliott wave pattern into the picture, what you would find, is the wave 1 from 4404 comes to around 4432/4434 area. lets for now,call that area the wave 1. and measure the fib projection from that, you will get a target zone around 4480. and you can play around with it. I count the Elliott wave and see the longer jump as a subwave 3, the sideways slide zig zag around 4470 is a wave 4 and then the wave 5 will finish around a retest of the 4500 area.
A bullish rally wave is supposed to complete 5 waves to the peak. a bearish wave would be an ABC pattern, that finishes at resistance around the 'subwave 3' area. Thats what your chart is showing now., around the 4480 area, stalling and pausing,waiting to see if theres more bullish strength here to test 4500, or more bearish energy looking to
cap the rally now,and send price back down.It can be Either a bullish subwave 3 or a bearish finished wave C, ready to reverse downwward.
IF we are about to see the collapse momentum start asserting dominance, this 4800 area should cap and fail , and this is the first chance for that to happen. So it certainly bears close watching this week.
But it is possible, that the timing is for later, and if we see a rally continue now to retest the 4500/4540/ and even a new high.... then thats telling us something else. For now.
What do you think we're looking at here.
Are you familiar with the Elliott wave pattern?
AVXL to start the week
hits resistance at 17.80 as expected. it was plunged down to 17.20 step but settled support at 17.30. The key balance point is the 17.45-17.55 area (17.50 ) to watch for support to hold, if it intends to rally at all.
Today was unresolved. Lets see what any pullback does, and how hard it is or not to break through
the 17.80-18.00 resistance barrier.
IF you examine closely these 5 minute candles. just to see where they stopped,right on the steps 17.20/17.30/17.40/50/60 etc... its technical step climbing up and down the steps. and the resistance at the key step 17.80/85 capped and now we will see where the support step holds ok. or breaks down.It looks like a controlled price movement today. not too high or too low. The opening plunge to 17.20 got bought right up. but the resistance cap at 17.80 held the bounce contained.
AVXL 5 minute candles.
Ive been reading this
guy's twitter comments lately.
https://twitter.com/ThinkTankCharts/status/1449673245691727874/photo/1
the markets may be getting pushed upward, but the political war in the world and controlled chaos are setting up for trouble. I'm watching the 3 Gorges Dam and bitcoin to trigger the collapse event.
Looking at the technical price action
about AVXL is not 'off topic' here but I hesitate to post alot of charts and alot of detail TA explanations here because it could start to dominate the forum. If most people here are more interested in the fundamental analysis of good science people, which I am too, then I'd rather see the forum receive the attention of those people like falconer and Biostockclub,and some others.
If you want to talk TA in greater detail, we can avoid being censored at my forum (search 123)
---------------------------------------------
but briefly, As the great pullback from 31 and 28 came down, the TA target retrace was looking at the 21-19 area to hold.But price 'bottomed' so far at the 16.50 area. Rally bounces since then have capped at 21,20.65. and 19.80. and fallen down to the 17-16.75 'bottom zone' Now the latest breakout rally capped at 18.20,
are there any meaningful patterns in the price action ?
Lower highs so far. and a retest of the Bottom zone(16.80) Now the ongoing pullback from 18.20 is looking to find support. So what happened to the rally targets above 20? The downward pressure has not allowed rallys to hit 20 dollars yet. You could say that the grand downwave pullback proccess is still ongoing . The big chart can be examined from the 31 and 28 tops to the bottoms. A real breakout rally pattern has to get back up to retest the 20 area and try and reach 22/23/24. The target is still on the big chart picture. but right now, the price action is still looking to stabilize the bottom zone.
Trying to get away from the bottom
my latest commentary on AVXL
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=166394751
I agree. excellent charts
by the way. I agree the head and shoulders pattern is very important in my view. I always look for that as a key pattern.
looking at the AVXL pattern
and the coming week.
set up now at support levels getting tested. This 17.50 is a very big place for support and resistance. In recent weeks,as the downwave from the major tops 19.80/19.30 reached the critical target zone (18.45-18.15/ then failing there testing the lower zone at 17.75-17.50) coming down from the rally peaks, the target zone for support was 18.45-18.15-17.75 area for that larger picture, and this support zone failed several times, as price got taken lower and didnt stop until it bottomed at the 16.75 area. This was a bearish energy pushing it back down to bottom zones and not allowing the bullish pattern to develop ,to develop by Holding support AT the key support area (17.45-17.85). Then, as usually happens, we saw 17.75 become capped resistance and then 17.45 area getting plunged down and down to keep hitting 17.00-16.80 (bottom zone)
----------------------------------------------------
Now we got to see another breakout rally ,climb back as high as the 18.20 resistance target. Then the pullback last week, started by capping and failing at the predictable technical target 18.00-17.90 area,as I forecasted, its easy math TA. down it falls the support steps ,and begins to test the support targets now at 17.50/17.40 is next . It could hold here and bounce into the next rally, or it could bounce to resistance around 17.70 area and plunge down again. just needs to be watched. Below this critical area at 17.50, is the entire zone from 17.50 to 16.75 bottom. and these 17.50-17.40 steps are critical to watch. This is the place where the past waves Plunged down to the low bottom zone. several times. in recent weeks.
IF we would ever see an upwave from here this time, it really needs to hold here at the critical 17.45 support area.
There are some nice rally targets waiting above 18.20. 19 dollars is one of them. Faltering at resistance 18.70 is another target for a rally. But as long as the 17.45 area is prone to plunge to the bottom, this is a recent pattern we need to see stop happening. Lets watch the coming week and see what happens next.
AVXL chart
a rally to retest the top or a plunge to retest the bottom.
nice chart.
The S+P is right at a key balance point now. I think its made a pretty strong bounce to try and recover. It has a chance to retest the top. but also needs to show strong support now around 4400 holding. As long as it stays above the 4350 area now,the downward pressure could be kept under control. Nevertheless, the political an economic times we are in is critical now, many turbulent events coming together, like war,threats or war, the 3 Gorges dam in china and bitcoin underneath it ready to collapse. The realty giant Evergrande is collapsing, and these are big triggers that threaten a global market collapse. So here we are watching the S+P candlesticks recover like everything is ok, but in the world,is waiting for chaos to trigger war and big events. like a stock market crash. I think we must be prepared to see it happen. in the coming weeks.
Thank you ,bb
for your kind word.
If my AVXL charts can help some people, I'm happy to post them.
from the anavex forum
my post was deleted. the 'arch villain' doesnt appreciate my humor and complained. but I'm saving it for the TA analysis, and the kind word someone gave me.
Forums can be unpleasant places sometimes.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/manage_msg.asp?message_id=166390146
Very nice post...well done
excellent description ,
Thanks.
Always keep watching the
Price action ,It tells you what it's doing. 17.50 is a target area,but it stretches down the steps to 17.00 as a support low.
It could hit 17.20 and bounce back into resistance around 17.70, and get hammered down from there to 16.70 again. And a down wave could make new lows.to 16.20 16.00 and 15.70
All i want to do next, is to watch the resistance for capping around 17.60 - 17.90 and see what happens. Like last time.
I guess thats correct.
Wall street has the upper hand
youre right
we do wait for news and fundamental success. But the price shows what is happening in the world of buying and selling shares. Its not just waiting for news . Price of buying and selling is also part of the investment world.
People in the business spend millions of dollars creating trading systems. I've spent 17 years studying it.
In that amount of time, probably in the first few years, I would have given up on TA if I had thought it was nonsense.
Its not hocus pocus,Ouiga board or astrology stuff. It is more akin to computer math , or maybe like what the odds makers do in Vegas.
I dont expect others with untrained eyes to be able to see this whole picture as I can. But in case some do get some clues from it, I post my charts.
This one looks a little more complex and harder to see.
something to look at
I understand what youre saying
AVXL
AVXL something to look at
A sensible comment, doc
We both agree about developing a trading system that works well enough. I'm comfortable with what I've developed. But maybe its become too hard for some people to look at my analysis.
My main conclusion in yesterday's analysis, was for folks to watch the resistance capping around 18.00 area. And that turned out to be the correct vision for today. For people who are able to follow my analysis, shouldn't be confused or misunderstanding it,I'm describing the details in clear English
Today the selling at 18 resistance was strongest price action,and the final hour was a determined effort to take it down. Now we wait for next week to show us what buyers will do at key support.
Have a good night folks
watch the price action tomorrow. watch the resistance overhead around 18. and see if the selling has strength. watch the pullback if there is a good one, to retest the 17.70 and watch for 17.60 to hold. Watch to see the strength of any bounce, watch to see if it rallies to retest the 18.20, and watch to see where the day and week ends, how close to 18 would it be.
Lets go Anavex, for success and healing a disease.
Dont forget to keep one eye on the Global market crisis, China market (Evergrande Real Estate collapsing) watch bitcoin and watch the 3 Gorges Dam flooding. Watch for rumors of war breaking out. and try to have a good portion of dry powder/cash in the portfolio to buy crash bottom if it happens.
https://www.screencast.com/t/ifgWnHDHT
I posted my chart forecast the other day, right here, and today, I reposted it as well to confirm the bullseye. I dont know why you cant find it. maybe youre not even reading my posts at all. I cant really help you. I'm sorry. Try reading my posts.
My chart analysis is about
trying to recognize the patterns, and I craft a technical chart with the Fibonacci math and Elliott Wave patterns. Its my method. I think its about 85-90 % accurate if I do it right. The purpose is to see and understand what the price action is doing ,and if possible what direction its going in and to What Target. There is a target to look for. Most often, these targets are part of a Fib math pattern. Sometimes these targets are also Options price targets as well. and some timing can be applied to the forecast. My desire is to avoid buying too soon at too high a price target. (Ive done that many times,and always hate when I do that.) I often hit the low target zone as my buy target. I almost never sell enough at the peak targets. because I like AVXL as a long term investment, reluctant to sell any shares.
I use the chart analysis to try and find the wave patterns,the peak targets to sell a little and bottom targets to buy a little. Some traders like to wait for breakouts and they buy the breakout. I dont do that. I like to buy the lowest Bottoms.
It sounds to me like
youre just one of those blind to TA and you just arent able to see my chart analysis . Its ok. Just stop reading my posts.
one last thought...
no matter how hard one tries to explain things... there will always be some people who just dont get it.They're stuck in a blind spot.its like they werent even hearing what you just said.
I'm glad I dont have too many blind spots like that.
stare at it until you understand the picture.
and then just watch where the price action goes tomorrow. Dont forget this is a math technical track pattern. IF we get great news for Anavex tomorrow, the price should surge ,maybe up to 20 , would be my guess.
https://www.screencast.com/t/ifgWnHDHT
But IF the technical price action continues along the math S/R tracks, watch the resistance around 17.95
and if the 18 area triggers selling, and the 17.70 breaks down, the 17.45 target zone comes into play.
------------------------------------------
IF the 17.70-17.60 support holds strong, we could see the bounce retest 18.25 area and then try to hold 18. I would expect the 18 to end the day and the week, balancing at 18. Its all just watching the price action and seeing what tracks and pattern its running on.
Some people cant see it.
Your critique is worth a response.
I appreciate what you said. Heres my reply. My analysis is NOT about trying to make a prediction for what happens next. It is a mistake to think thats what I'm presenting.
Ive learned, the more Ive studied, that the price action always has the potential to move in either direction. Sometimes the odds favor one direction. Like yesterday ,the odds looked to me like a bounce rally was set up and thats what we got today. Patterns can show the potential and the odds may become stronger for one direction over another. Sometimes the chart develops to a set up/inflection point like that,and is more easy to forecast. When I see these set ups I post it and sometimes feel strong enough about the set up that I might call it a forecast, like I did last night. and this week.
But the biggest mistake is for someone to make a full blown prediction. I dont do that.
But what I always do is I look at a chart for patterns IN Both Directions. If you are looking for track patterns, its a mistake to only look in one direction. I always analyze it for both directions, actually a third direction is sideways. I look for that too. The naysayers and haters who dont understand my TA chart work, call it nonsense,and they complain like you did,that my analysis is wishy washy saying up down or sideways.... People who think this is my analysis are not following my clear technical analysis at all. My analysis is often tedious to read all the math details. I understand that some folks might want to skim and skip over the thought process I take you through. Thats a problem for them because it leaves them failing to understand anything I'm describing.
I would like to believe that people who are following my chart work, are following my analysis vision closely, close enough to go look at the chart, read everything I describe ,and see the fine details I'm showing. and then watch the price action the next day and see if the price followed the track pattern.
Heres the next picture to watch now, as I see it.
I drew what I consider the Elliott Wave/Fibonacci math track patterns.like a road map. Lets see where price goes tomorrow.Today it ran precisely along the track pattern to precise targets.
The math patterns can forecast future targets, and I described those as well. They run in either direction.Its not me being wishy washy. The price has potential to run in either direction. and we'll have to see what comes next. IF I see a target to watch for ,like todays 18.25 area, its a target to watch , and maybe a target to make a trading decision or not. I didnt sell any today at 18.20, but I might consider selling a small piece at 19.25, depending on the moment. I'd rather sell a little at 20.20 or 21.20, but I cant forecast that far right now. I'd really like to trim some at 26 or 25. but I dont know if we will get that high in the current cycle. we shall see.
----------------------------------------------
I do appreciate your comment that my own reading of the Global,political climate is subjective, and depends on the stuff I'm reading, what info and who I choose to believe, youre right, thats a good point. SO I should preface what I say ,that according to this or that analyst/insider, this is what they are saying.
They are saying we will have a market crash in the coming month or few weeks. I dont know if that will happen or not, but I want to be cautious. Others can whistle past the graveyard as they wish.
Anyway, I hope this helps sincere people understand that I am not trying to make predictions. I'm trying to show the technical roadmap and track patterns as I see them.IN Both directions.
https://www.screencast.com/t/ifgWnHDHT
not sure I agree with that logic.
I might say ,the low volume suggests that people are not much interested in selling at this price level. Investors and traders are looking for the bottoms to buy more. and maybe also people are getting nervous about the global economy and stock market jitters thinking about possible collapse to come.
whatever works for you...
Did you know that serious people actually have studied the effects of the lunar cycles on the stock market for correlations?
A good commentary about AVXL rally
and price action track pattern, and market caution now.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=166365920
https://www.screencast.com/t/ifgWnHDHT
The price action nonsense was 100% on track
right to the target I forecasted with the Fib math nonsense a day or two earlier. The Fibonacci math is such nonsense that the price actually followed the math track precisely along the math pattern,precisely to the forecasted target.
I love the Fibonacci nonsense. and I hope my chart work does help people to "see" the price action technical track patterns. It doesnt alyways hit precise bullseyes like it has done this week, but most of the time 80-90% is a good road map to examine, and thats why I draw my charts with these tools and have learned the Fibonacci language for technical pattern watching.
Here's what my chart looks like now.
Target down could hit these lines of support. I'd like to see 17.60 hold now, but 17.50 and 17.40 area look ok. below 17.40 starts to lose more of the rally momentum.
The upward targets are looking at 18.60-70 area and the key to achieve the next bullish rally target is 19.30 area,then 20.30-20.50-20.70 area on the technical nonsense chart.
A cautious bias ,which I always have is watching for resistance to cap rallies,and the 18.60-19.25 area to struggle, and if it gets to 20 area,and the S+P starts to show selling pressure along some bad global news, my caution would be to prepare for market collapse trouble, at some point, AVXL could see its last rally for a while, maybe it could be this current rally,and how high it climbs now is the guess to decide where to lighten some trading shares and raise more cash. I'm watching the 19-20-21 area for that resistance and timing. My timing could prove wrong, of course. but the TA price action has been strongly following the Fibonacci nonsense track patterns,so I'll stay the course in my analysis of what I'm seeing.
The last thing I ever want to do is sell AVXL shares too soon and miss out on extra profits. But I do think this season and this month is a time for great caution.
Thats why I want to post the S+P chart as well as AVXL.
Fib target nonsense bullseyes
@ bb86, happy to help
Here's the S+P 500. I think it deserves watching now.
S+P bouncing ok, but needs to hold support here around 4350, and keep on climbing back up to retest at least 4400 and hang around 4480 to stabilize. staying above 4400.
Wave 3 target is reached at 17.80
the 1 dollar move we often see.
The completed math target is around 18.25 area. we'll see if if continues upward from here at 17.60 support.
AVXL jumps in the wave 3 right to the math target.
----------------------------------------------
The finished wave 5 target is another bounce to the 18.25 area. But many times poor beaten up AVXL gets taken down again after the wave 3 rally,and if that becomes the cap and bleed trigger from 17.85,the pullback zone looks to me like the Fib retrace 17.40-17.30-17.20 area.
Watching what happens next