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Your critique is worth a response.
I appreciate what you said. Heres my reply. My analysis is NOT about trying to make a prediction for what happens next. It is a mistake to think thats what I'm presenting.
Ive learned, the more Ive studied, that the price action always has the potential to move in either direction. Sometimes the odds favor one direction. Like yesterday ,the odds looked to me like a bounce rally was set up and thats what we got today. Patterns can show the potential and the odds may become stronger for one direction over another. Sometimes the chart develops to a set up/inflection point like that,and is more easy to forecast. When I see these set ups I post it and sometimes feel strong enough about the set up that I might call it a forecast, like I did last night. and this week.
But the biggest mistake is for someone to make a full blown prediction. I dont do that.
But what I always do is I look at a chart for patterns IN Both Directions. If you are looking for track patterns, its a mistake to only look in one direction. I always analyze it for both directions, actually a third direction is sideways. I look for that too. The naysayers and haters who dont understand my TA chart work, call it nonsense,and they complain like you did,that my analysis is wishy washy saying up down or sideways.... People who think this is my analysis are not following my clear technical analysis at all. My analysis is often tedious to read all the math details. I understand that some folks might want to skim and skip over the thought process I take you through. Thats a problem for them because it leaves them failing to understand anything I'm describing.
I would like to believe that people who are following my chart work, are following my analysis vision closely, close enough to go look at the chart, read everything I describe ,and see the fine details I'm showing. and then watch the price action the next day and see if the price followed the track pattern.
Heres the next picture to watch now, as I see it.
I drew what I consider the Elliott Wave/Fibonacci math track patterns.like a road map. Lets see where price goes tomorrow.Today it ran precisely along the track pattern to precise targets.
The math patterns can forecast future targets, and I described those as well. They run in either direction.Its not me being wishy washy. The price has potential to run in either direction. and we'll have to see what comes next. IF I see a target to watch for ,like todays 18.25 area, its a target to watch , and maybe a target to make a trading decision or not. I didnt sell any today at 18.20, but I might consider selling a small piece at 19.25, depending on the moment. I'd rather sell a little at 20.20 or 21.20, but I cant forecast that far right now. I'd really like to trim some at 26 or 25. but I dont know if we will get that high in the current cycle. we shall see.
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I do appreciate your comment that my own reading of the Global,political climate is subjective, and depends on the stuff I'm reading, what info and who I choose to believe, youre right, thats a good point. SO I should preface what I say ,that according to this or that analyst/insider, this is what they are saying.
They are saying we will have a market crash in the coming month or few weeks. I dont know if that will happen or not, but I want to be cautious. Others can whistle past the graveyard as they wish.
Anyway, I hope this helps sincere people understand that I am not trying to make predictions. I'm trying to show the technical roadmap and track patterns as I see them.IN Both directions.
https://www.screencast.com/t/ifgWnHDHT
not sure I agree with that logic.
I might say ,the low volume suggests that people are not much interested in selling at this price level. Investors and traders are looking for the bottoms to buy more. and maybe also people are getting nervous about the global economy and stock market jitters thinking about possible collapse to come.
whatever works for you...
Did you know that serious people actually have studied the effects of the lunar cycles on the stock market for correlations?
A good commentary about AVXL rally
and price action track pattern, and market caution now.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=166365920
https://www.screencast.com/t/ifgWnHDHT
The price action nonsense was 100% on track
right to the target I forecasted with the Fib math nonsense a day or two earlier. The Fibonacci math is such nonsense that the price actually followed the math track precisely along the math pattern,precisely to the forecasted target.
I love the Fibonacci nonsense. and I hope my chart work does help people to "see" the price action technical track patterns. It doesnt alyways hit precise bullseyes like it has done this week, but most of the time 80-90% is a good road map to examine, and thats why I draw my charts with these tools and have learned the Fibonacci language for technical pattern watching.
Here's what my chart looks like now.
Target down could hit these lines of support. I'd like to see 17.60 hold now, but 17.50 and 17.40 area look ok. below 17.40 starts to lose more of the rally momentum.
The upward targets are looking at 18.60-70 area and the key to achieve the next bullish rally target is 19.30 area,then 20.30-20.50-20.70 area on the technical nonsense chart.
A cautious bias ,which I always have is watching for resistance to cap rallies,and the 18.60-19.25 area to struggle, and if it gets to 20 area,and the S+P starts to show selling pressure along some bad global news, my caution would be to prepare for market collapse trouble, at some point, AVXL could see its last rally for a while, maybe it could be this current rally,and how high it climbs now is the guess to decide where to lighten some trading shares and raise more cash. I'm watching the 19-20-21 area for that resistance and timing. My timing could prove wrong, of course. but the TA price action has been strongly following the Fibonacci nonsense track patterns,so I'll stay the course in my analysis of what I'm seeing.
The last thing I ever want to do is sell AVXL shares too soon and miss out on extra profits. But I do think this season and this month is a time for great caution.
Thats why I want to post the S+P chart as well as AVXL.
Fib target nonsense bullseyes
@ bb86, happy to help
Here's the S+P 500. I think it deserves watching now.
S+P bouncing ok, but needs to hold support here around 4350, and keep on climbing back up to retest at least 4400 and hang around 4480 to stabilize. staying above 4400.
Wave 3 target is reached at 17.80
the 1 dollar move we often see.
The completed math target is around 18.25 area. we'll see if if continues upward from here at 17.60 support.
AVXL jumps in the wave 3 right to the math target.
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The finished wave 5 target is another bounce to the 18.25 area. But many times poor beaten up AVXL gets taken down again after the wave 3 rally,and if that becomes the cap and bleed trigger from 17.85,the pullback zone looks to me like the Fib retrace 17.40-17.30-17.20 area.
Watching what happens next
This was my forecast from yesterday.
and price ran along that track ok.
Looking for pullback to hold around the 17.25 support zone now.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=166331377
@ TWilson...
Looks like SAVA is trying to bounce. it has a chance if it can hold 50 support step.
Mild bullish first target zone is 60,and mild bearish capping /stifled is looking at faltering around 55-56 area.
but the greater target zone is 70-80-90 if it has any real strength left.It will likely take 2 rally bounces/waves to get into the greater target zone but the math pattern projection developing now is setting up to possibly become target at 80.
SAVA chart Fib targets
Well said, I agree
I dont like gambling but
I'd bet you a bag of stale donuts that tomorrow bounces upward.
Or I'd rather say, that the chart picture now, has a chance to bounce...IF this support step holds ok here at 17.10/17.15 area, and doesnt fall down to retest the 16.80 bottom area. IF it bounces tomorrow, a fair rally wave has a chance to target 17.75. the next Fib target after that would be the 19.35 area.
upward looking set up possible now
But this support area right now has to hold. and bounce from here.
IF it falls down thru 17 again, the bearish bias wins the day.and maybe the week.
AVXL target 14?
Just something to look at
IF we get great news we should get another surge rally. But if this bleeding down continues and also momentum of a downward stock market climate now, could take AVXL down to the next level of targets at 15 and 14.
AVXL messy chart
It shows me something important
The biggest thing this unreadable chart shows, as I was constructing it, with a Fibonacci math pattern plot,and an Elliott wave pattern, and using the 50% Fib line as a basic magnet target... This chart measures from both peaks at 31.50 and at 28. to both Lows at 17.37 and 16.55, and all the key Fib retrace zones are plotted as well as all key Fib arcs. It shows that after AVXL made a big pullback to 17.37 from 31.50 the retrace bounce should have retested the 24 area At Least. as a 50% retrace. BUT it only went as high as 21. That was a weak rally bounce. All the Fib targets are showing that the retrace back up should have retested 22/23/24 area and to Fail at 21 is showing a bearish bias... coming right after a big bullish rocket surge to 31. it stalled at 21 and then 20 and now it wallows down at the 17/16.75 Bottom zone, unable to bounce strong in the last week.
Thanks for that post
very helpful
DDAmanda
@ Red...SAVA chart
Dont know if youve seen my SAVA chart. but FWIW, the first rally from 40 to 70 wasnt bad , and the pullback now to 50/47 is where it 'should hold' and bounce again, in my view. Who knows if it will make another good bounce, but IF the track pattern plays out as an ABC correction into a Fib target zone (70-80-90) area is that target zone I'm looking for. maybe 80 area. not a bad trade as a chance for those who wanted to get out at a major resistance target.
SAVA
watch the markets as well
S+P 500
Its one of those times where global stress reaches a tipping point.
not market insiders
political and military insiders
Well said,ttj
Its like a race now between Anavex's next great news that can surge the price again, versus the next market crash, which could come pretty soon if the insiders warnings are timely.
AVXL needs another good rally soon
@bb86
Thanks for your kind words.
123T
AVXL chart
chart
notice all the steps up and down along the way.
looking now for a pullback to hold the 17.20 step. rally to 18 step. or higher.
guessing at bottoms
is a tricky thing,as you know.
As the rally peak at 19.80 was coming back down, I was looking for a bullish support step to hold at the basic Fib retrace zone. That zone was 18.50-18.15-17.70 area.
I was stretching that down to 17.60 and watching the price action. Price moved into that zone and then plunged down to 17.40 and that was a breach for me in the track pattern. The bounces zig zagged in the retrace zone but fell to lower lows. 17.20 then fell to 17.06. I was looking for the 17 to hold but we see this week how it broke below that. The entire set of moves down below the 17.60 area was no longer looking bullish to me, and the steps around 17.00 I expected to see it fall into the 16's like it did. But while AVXL was continuing down, the S+P and indexes were bouncing back up, so today's bounce might move upward better if buyers lose their fear. We got a 1 dollar move basically, and the rally targets might be looking at 19.00-19.30 target area. But below that a bearish resistance target is around 18.25 to watch for.
I do craft my charts relying on the formula patterns of Fibonacci. It gives me a consistent template to plot with and use as a barometer of sorts.
Watching this downwave from 19.80 to 16.70 ,a 3 dollar retrace to the bottom zone again. One can start to call it a Range Pattern as much as anything.
If this 16.65 becomes a finished bottom,the first bounce wave of 1 dollar shows a projected target to finish around 19.30. but there are some strong resistance targets along the way that could cap the rally. 18.00/18.30/18.65/19.00
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But beyond the current chart picture, I have been more concerned about the greater stock market and global dangers of market crash that could happen if the global powers intend to do that. It is a real concern. So I'm watching the China realty company Evergrande, watching for a collapse of the 3 Gorges Dam ,followed by collapse of Bitcoin, and triggers like war events, political events,etc. sometime in October. maybe next week? The S+P and other indexes made a good recovery bounce this week. AVXL appears to be lagging a step behind them in the bounce. and the distance . We need to see more good follow thru for AVXL to at least reach 18.30
AVXL projection rally
IF the bottom finishes now at this 16.75 area
The rally bounce has to at least retest the 18.20 target area, and climb the resistance steps. and the rally could fail at any step along the way.
AVXL rally to 20.65?
2 charts
close up current wave
larger picture
IF tomorrow finishes the bottom around 16.75 and makes the rally bounce. the projected track pattern could retest the 20.50/20.65 area. but I dont want to start forcasting anything quite yet. the bottom has to finish. so the key word is IF. and the resistance overhead is strong from 17.90 to 18.15/18.30 area 18.60 area 19,19.50/20 area, all the steps on the way to 20.60 area.
S+P 500 again
reversed down to start the week
technical chart patterns
Looking upward direction
I might have missed that one
I like good satire and sarcasm
weekly AVXL
the daily chart shows more at the moment than weekly does. in my view.
weekly chart
so much energy there at
the 19 area, like a balance line.
I would know too.
we have to Trust the Plan.
@Kdskds...interesting thoughts
I appreciate your comments. Its a very important skill for any investor/trader to master is to eliminate excess emotion. I remember when I was a novice,I panicked when it went way up and panicked when it went way down. till I learned to stay even minded and stop the emotions. its a bit less fun, but its a skill you have to have. I'm glad youve been able to develop that. the professional mindset.
I was joking with our forum friend. my adversaries think my forecasts are all nonsense but we know theres a method to the madness and if I can get the technical track patterns correct then I can follow the road map patterns pretty well. Its important to always see the track patterns In Both directions. and even make sense of sideways moves.
These days I am watching the greater stock market for signs of crashing. The stresses from China and geopolitical war are developing,and intel insiders are warning of market crash as part of the Global Plan thats playing out.
I think the future is very bright for AVXL but if we see a market crash in the coming weeks, it could slam AVXL down to the 10/9/8 area. and hard to know how far down. Without a crash, normal technical targets down around 14 could be in play but in a crash.... I want to catch the drop closer to the final bottom zone. I would expect it to be much lower than 14.
Anyway, we shall see what happens next. Have a good weekend.
I wish you understood price action
All I can tell you is
price will go up from here,or it will go down.
and there is a chance it will go sideways.
Lets see what next week brings to the stock market. October sentiment has people nervous for a market crash coming. Keep your eyes on the greater market and trouble from China.
The S+P 500
pulled down this week. went a few steps lower than I wanted to see. made a new low. bounced from that bottom ok so far but needs a follow thru bounce next week in this pattern. I wanted to see the 4350/4340 area hold strong and it failed. Now,need to see those same steps hold strong this time, and rally to 4430 target area.
S+P 500/hourly chart
maybe the entire month of October
will maintain the delicate balance of things. like juggling. But in china that big realty company is in big trouble as is the 3 gorges dam. and bitcoin.
What are your toughts about the plunge of IPIX today. why is it going downward in ecent days and days.
my current chart
not a bad bounce from the 17.42 low. bounced 80 cents.
something to work with. has a rally target to retest the 19.50 area if we get a full rally. resistance zones overhead as always,something to watch next week. Will it hold as a bottom at 17.40?
AVXL
and heres the other direction
1 dollar down
AVXL looking at the downward track
@Dawg, You're very welcome.
Happy to help if I can.
AVXL
next bounce target zone
but I'm worried these days now about the market crashing, in the coming days and weeks. Watch China, Evergrande realty bankruptcy and the 3 Gorges dam collapse, flooding and bitcoin crashing.
Looking in the upward direction
From the 17.70 bounce ,already reached the 18.15 area,as a start,and shows the Fibonacci energy at play. Its all technical in my view, and controlled, the first decent target for swing waves ought to be a retest of 18.50 - 18.75 area.And Then 19.50 to 20.25 area.A really good rally,maybe with news momentum can target the next level 23-25 area. But lets not jump ahead too soon.
Sorry, Red, if my chart posts looked
confusing to you. I thought I was showing it clear enough. The downwave started from the 19.80 peak.the Fib target zone was shown at 18.50,18.10,17.70 targets .and price dropped right there today. Technical trading might see the 17.70 low as a buy target.
I see that with you...
a cautionary down day for markets, S+P to the key (critical) support 4350
It has to bounce back this week.
similar with AVXL pullback into the target zone, but I think AVXL has some wiggle room still (18.50-18.12-17.75)
The rally capped at the 19.80 target by the looks of it. not a bad rally wave. needs to hold the 18 area now. 17.70 is more critical for the bullish upwave picture.
17.50,in my view,starts to disolve the bullish energy of the upward pattern and starts to redevelop the Range.with as much chance to fall back to 17/16.70 as it does to hold 17.50 and rally bullish beyond the Range. The Range is still in play here.
But the greater market index pressure this week, needs continued watching. End of Q on thursday. ripe for a take down? might be a good time for some profit taking and dry powder in case of . Hard though, to sell any AVXL here. was hoping to see 21 area this week.
If it will rally again, the time is now. next day or two.
ABC pullback gets into the Fib retrace zone
On one math chart
the peak at 19.80 today is a finished target area for the technical Fib math rally wave. IF we see a full pullback in that pattern, the 50% Fib target is 18.15 area
as measured from the 16.50 bottom (also measure from 16.70 area for another detail.) 16.50 to 19.80, the 50% fib is 18.15
the retrace zone is (18.50-18.15-17.80) area to hold support,for an upward pattern.
It can still run higher from here as other track patterns are looking at 20.20-20.50 target zone. and some others higher still. but this first zone is here at 19.80
AVXL climbs to a key target