Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
This week's price action offers some clues.
We saw a bullish looking support hold at 5.30, then climb to hit resistance around 5.90. Now a pullback testing 5.50/5.45, and finishing the week around the Moving average magnet 5.55 .5.60 is a step to watch. The 5.50 area has a chance to become a support base, as does 5.30 and 5.40. The shoulder zones 5.30 and 5.60 area to watch. It's broken when it falls to 5.00, but recovery to 5.80 area regains the bullish momentum...all centered around that moving average at 5.50. And it fits the larger wave pattern picture, with a bottom zone at 3.50 to a wave peak around 7.50, you've got the 50% Fib and moving avg. target at 5.50...all looking just technically right.... and in a waiting phase like 2024, long term charts want to develop over time, smaller range patterns, like peaking again at 7.50, or bleeding down to 5.00 again...maybe 4.65 as a target bargain in the coming weeks... 🤔 🎱 , but some measured controls of the price, in a range for now, with several months to go... I'm still neutral, looking to see how far down the bleeding game can take the price to best bargains. I'll say 4.50 is still in play. Unless there is big news coming soon.
Bullish looking follow thru bounce today, after holding 5.30 support yesterday. Climbing steps toward the 6's .Let's see
Maybe your moving avg. support line has a chance to hold now? We'll see soon enough. Price movements are not staying tight in technical trading. It's more volatile with larger moves. Up 50cents, down 50 cents.... but the whole playing field is 1 dollar (5 to 6) small, small steps, but the price is climbing and tumbling 2 and 3 steps at a time. In this range.
Sounds like a false breakout, John, this little jump, from 5.30 and floating up still.... it looks like a breakout from the neutral key step 5.30 5.35, that was the place to watch. Does it feel like a trick now? It's all resistance from 5.30 to 5.90, could roll over and tumble again.
Support at 5.20, on the short time frame chart. Let's see if it rolls over and falls back down again.
I'm blocking you now.😵
The week ends at resistance roll over zone 5.30. Resistance stopped the pop at 5.50 again.and sold right back down, again. Still
unresolved for the next 1 dollar move. 5.50 down to 4.50 , or 5.10 up to 6.10 , on my chart. This resistance area,5.25 is worth watching because it offers clues about the bargain bottom fishing zone 75 cents lower.
So,Steve, given the bearish bias you're describing, and I agree, don't you think it's the right lens to favor using these weeks and months of 2024, alongside the views of Doc, as he described the waiting process, the time it will take for the next stages of results, into 2025... to me, was a good indicator since January, that 2024 was going to be a long year of watching the downwave develop its next major bottom zone. From which to begin the next major upwave in 2025. Bottom zone developing in 2024, the first major wave went from 10 to pivot low 3.27/3.37 area... so far...
To peak at 7.25 area... and now back to test 5.00 area... so far. I agree that the 5.55 area with the 200 ma was a key support zone to watch, but the 50% Fib target is around 5.25... so that's ok to stay neutral with. I'm neutral/bearish now. Watching this resistance at 5.25 is key now... there only needs another roll over here, and retest 5 dollars, cut through it and tumble to the next magnetic targets for support and bottom fishing buy zone (4.70/65/60/55/50/45) target zone. In the pattern. Price will go where the trading powers Intend it to go. I'll be happy enough to buy a little more at 4.55 target zone.( not giving trading advice, it's just what I'm looking at)
My bias has been looking for the downwave targets in 2024. I thought 3.28 low, would continue down to the next bottom fishing zone 3.00/2.90 but it didn't roll over and continue down. 3.30 rallied to 7.30. The pullback, so far, hits 5.00. IF the trading powers Intend a big bounce now, they can take it back up to 6.00 again without any fuss. But on the technical chart pattern, the current downwave... Rolling over here at 5.30 would be the clue to watch. It won't shock me if they pop it back up to 5.50/5.70/5.80 again, and stretch out the range and the time frames through 2024. But it would be a more direct route to the bottom fishing zone, if they roll over here at 5.30 and tumble to 4.65.
I've come to appreciate your comments over time. You haven't usually posted much about TA, but I'm seeing that you have trading/investing knowledge and skills.
I've found from studying charts, there are moments when the TA makes the picture very clear, and other moments when one has to wait at a pause, a balance point where the next move is the key, ... like now, as the price is hanging at a key zone that will mark the next direction. I think right here, on the chart now is one of those inflection points (5.20 - 5.30 resistance area) . Coming from a triple bottom tap around 4.95, the 5 dollar step getting tested this week, bounces and climbs to test 5.25 resistance area. This is the current battle of support/resistance I'm watching. And it's a big test to watch here because the 5 dollar target is a big trade target. The bleeding down process, aiming for lower bottom zones below 5 dollars, would be looking at resistance here, 5.30 area,5.20, to cap the price, and make the effort to tumble down again.into lower lows, and target 4.65 area. This is a bottom fishing exercise now. Many investors (and hedge funds?) See the 5 dollar price as investible trigger point. But the downwave pattern might still be ongoing, IF this current climb back to 5.30 resistance Rolls Over ... and tumbles to 5.00 again, and tumbles lower in a continued downwave. The current resistance right now at 5.25 is key to watch to See... if it does roll over, and tumble below 5.10 support. The 5 dollar target area is being tested.this week. Maybe next week as well. Watching to see if 5.00 holds as a Bottom and watching to see if 5.30 resistance holds as a capping roll over zone. The 70 cent trade downwave targets 4.60 area. And the 70 cent upwave targets the 5.70 resistance area.
5.30/20/10 and 5.00 is the price action battle zone to watch now. Today,tomorrow, and into next week. This is all I'm looking at right now.
If you know how to examine a chart, you should see at least these basic things ,
it's TA 101. Shoulder zones. Support and resistance areas.Fib retrace areas. Moving average lines, Bollinger bands, and TA 201 might include Elliott Wave counting, and more complex tools like Ichimoku cloud. Traders know how to play options. TA201and 301 includes fundamental analysis alongside TA, and you'd be a serious investor/trader. And you'd see the patterns and be able to anticipate what targets are in play, and have a good guess where price is heading.
A little sharp bounce from the 4.95 step. Makes me look at ... a 15 cent step sequence on the chart pattern.
5.25/5.10/ 4.95 /4.80/4.65 Connecting to pivots and target steps. Support and resistance points. in play now. Looking to the end of September. Climbing and bleeding up and dow to these target steps.
The 5.00 target gets hit. avxl bleeding down.
I moved my 4.75 bids to 4.55. My 🎱 is starting to see 4.45/4.35. Do we have any clue by watching the strength or weakness in Any buying here at 5.00 today?? I'm not a great reader of volume clues. But seems like 5 dollars ought to be a big target . Looking at past pivot reversals, we got the major low spike up at 3.25. Then 3.45 held and Rallied to 4.50 area.then 3.55 / 3.50 pivot reversal, then 3.75 held and rallied to finish the upwave around the 7.25 area.
Then the sell down.... Support zone 6.50-6.20 Failed. Then 6.00 failed, effectively ending the upwave pattern. then we see the bleeding down and small bounces that rolled over at visible resistance points,and bled down. 6.50 rolled over, 6.20 rolled over, etc... And today hits the 5.00. Now, resistance steps put pressure every 10 cent step (5.10/20/30/40).... the next support zone ,after the next 50 or 70 cent drop, looks around 4.70/60/50/40.
Where in this downwave will buyers step in. Is it happening here now, today at 5.00 ?? 🤔
I'm not surprised at all to see it finally reach 5.00 , but it did take a few weeks to get here. It might take a few more weeks to hit 4.50target. End of September. 🤔 ?
The little surge to 5.50 sells right back down.
Steve, would you consider today's candlestick a "pin bar" (Pinocchio ) ? Resistance steps continue to be around 5.25/5.35 area. The pin bar is considered a bearish sign, for continued downwave. 🤔 🎱
Good post, Steve, I agree completely. A few points, yes, 4.50 appears on the picture now, as well as the support zone around 4.60 area. Yes, watching the bounces is a clue. Rolling over, and how far down, we see pattern of price tumbling 50 cent moves, 70 cent moves, 30 cent moves, any frequent patterns become clues. Where did the large downwave begin.... 6.60 area. 1 dollar down, 2 dollars down. We watched the big target zone at the 200 MA, now the big target zone at 4.60. Not a prediction, it's something to watch for. I see 4.80 as just as important. But also 4.50 . It's a target zone. And, we have all year to pass slowly, lots of time for sellers to bleed the price down, like weeks sliding along 6.00/6.40.... then tumbling down. We could see that same pattern again, now sliding for weeks around 5.00/5.30, and then tumble down to the Intended Target zone / 4.50 area.
Yes it would be more respectable, but I don't feel such a strong need to convince anyone , People who know how to examine price action ought to be able to see the same details I'm looking at, same targets, etc. I post my observations ahead of the price action. people can read my posts and see, and all it is , looking at support versus resistance, and looking at targets and patterns. Open to interpretation of course.
Once the January disappointment happened, it set the tone for the whole year.and if you believe Doc's time frame, the whole year could be a long waiting time, and That means the shorts and sellers will toss the price ragdoll all the way down as low as they can, through the whole year, until news time comes. And this downwave is what we're seeing now. Taking months to play out.
I've had my bids set at 5.00 for over a month, since back when price was at 6/6.40 area. Today, I'm changing my 5.00 bids, moving them down to 4.70, and waiting for it. Saving a little money, but the biggest thing, is to learn and see if I'm Understanding the pattern I'm looking at. Getting it correct is more important.
When price "Bottomed" at 3.28/3.40, I believed it would rollover again and target 3.00/2.90. But I was proven incorrect on that . Now I'm doing the same thought process, and technical analysis, targeting 4.65 . It might bottom at 4.75, who knows. I wanna be a little flexible with the targets. But right now, the 5.00 bids I've had in the docket for a month, I'm dropping lower. This is not advice for anyone, it's just what I'm doing. IF I didn't own any AVXL, I'd be buying now, anywhere from 5.25 down. Bottom fishing now, I think we'll see targets in the 4's.
Doc, I was just looking at that on the chart.
I like using the Fibonacci tools, among others, and the way they show the target patterns. I believe the trading is mostly done by computer systems, how would computer systems decide when and where to trigger trades? I believe they use all kinds of math equations,volume, price patterns,options dates, many things, but all technical. After watching price action closely for 15 years, I'm convinced the system includes Fibonacci math. Anyway, it's showing targets in the 4's now, and the old support shelf around 4.65 is the center. I'm looking at the target steps 4.90/4.80/4.70/4.65/4.60/4.50 . Resistance now, looks like the 5.30/5.40 area, to rollover and down another 50/70 cents.
4.65 in play.🎱 🤔
.........................
The daily MA's around 5.50 got shattered. No support strength at all. The trading bots are clever to pivot at 5.10.... as if it won't touch the 5.00. The resistance is around 5.30 now,waiting to roll over, like 5.60/5.70 did... and I'd be anticipating a plunge right through 5.00 to pause around 4.85, and rollover again at 5.15, tumbling to the computer systems Intended Target. Intended Target. 4.65 area. This downwave began from the 6.65 peak. A 2 dollar move , for the precise computer system.
How many pattern tracks do you want me to furnish. and how many patterns are you looking at? Tell me what details you're analyzing and we can discuss it.
5.80 resistance retrace target area gets hit.
Quickly, in one day. Then zigs down to test the 5.50 area for support. Very technical looking price action now. So the math measurements are making a predictable pattern at the moment. I'm watching the battle now between resistance zone (5.70/5.80/5.90) and support steps (5.55/5.45 area)
More determined selling force could achieve another dollar down. Conversely, IF... Buying force holds strong at 5.50 area, could propel a 1 dollar climb back toward 6.50. 🫣🎱🤔
I love how no matter what I say, about the price action, ...there are always 3 or 4 people who automatically give me dog poops,clowns, and devils. These are people who must be unable to watch and understand what price is doing...even as I describe the picture and the pattern targets days and weeks ahead of time. 😑 But it's all good.
Watch the price action. Right now, watch where the bounce goes. And watch the battle at the next resistance zones. It's all about support versus resistance. And the mm controlling the price within a range.
5.30 target gets hit.
1 dollar down from the 6.30 triangle cliff.was a rollover shoulder zone.to anticipate tumbling down. The bias was looking downward.The market analysis on the weekend was warning ,was forecasting a plunge for today.
Fib resistance now centered around 5.80 (5.70-5.90) . Every 10 cent step is the staircase up and down.getting hit, pausing, bouncing and tumbling lower. But today was a market plunge and AVXL collapsed along with it.
Now, in addition to the basic 50% Fib retrace (5.75/5.95) we get to watch the key MA'S around 5.60/5.50 for resistance.
I didn't have a bid set at the 5.30 target. I'm waiting for 5.00, and now, maybe even 4.85
I agree, it's a key target to watch. But what are the odds the downwave could overshoot a little and we're looking at 5.35 as a stink bid target zone. 🤔 ?
Thanks Kev, I can look into the idea some more, and open a discussion topic for options trading at my forum . You'd be most welcome to participate as you like. I remember about 5 or 6 years ago, I was interested in learning, and I started looking at some YouTube videos, and started reading tutorials, and I realized it was slow plodding trying to read... and seemed better watching a person teaching.
Kev, I wish I could have been able to play options, but our investment is stuck within the restrictions of Ira accounts, and I'm not allowed to trade options,or short time frames scalping.So, consequently, I also never learned how to trade options. All I can do is basic trading. And mostly swing trade time frames. Sometimes, I've suggested to the wife that if we opened an individual account, I could do more fancy trading,learn to play options,etc... and she would say... Didn't you always tell me that trading this stock market is really closer to Gambling? Yes, it is more like gambling. And that would end the discussion pretty much. On occasion, I would start to learn about playing options, and it seemed like too much to learn at my retirement age. Unless I found a tutor and mentor.
It's dropping into a key target zone, as you highlighted well, but I think the target steps can stretch lower and still be ok for a rally recovery pattern to develop. I like the Fibonacci retrace tool, it's helpful, and worth looking at the target points. 5.80 is just the beginning of the retrace targets. If we had a strongly bullish momentum in the market, and good news for AVXL, could hold support here, or probably in the 6's would have held, like at 6.30 area, but price failed and tumbled all down the 6's... it doesn't feel bullish to me short term, so my bias has been neutral/bearish , and watching for targets in the 5's, like 5.50/5.37/5.17 ... being patient. We may have many weeks to go before good news, is that correct, or not.The sellers and mm's, hft trading systems, whatever the trading forces are that move the price downward... have time to bleed it down.and now we can watch to see how strong the selling becomes. As well as buying strength. I've had my eye on the 5 dollar target for weeks, as we've watched it go to 7, and hang around 6.40, and Not Look like it would ever tumble down to 5.00..... but now, it becomes visible in the downwave steps.
Nicely drawn pitchfork. The month of September might be interesting.
I'd also draw a few more parallel channels but in the upward direction, that might highlight the support zone around 5.00-4.50 to watch. Right now, I'm watching the current downwave, to see IF it gathers momentum, for targeting the key support steps, and MA, 5.55 area, and lower steps ,a shoulder zone 5.35-5.20-5.00 area.My buy targets. Now, with 5.85 hit today, I'm plotting the 1 dollar down to 4.85 as the bottom, on the math chart. A bounce now, from 5.85 has 6.15 area as resistance, and 6.00 as a rollover drop zone, and the 70 cent and 1 dollar targets are
5.30 /5.15/5.00.... 15 cent steps on my chartwatch now, include 5.45/5.60/5.75. Lots of target points to watch, for best bargains. I've been calling the bias bearish/looking to bleed and tumble downward for the last 3 weeks, and all of 2024, while we have months to wait. The main game would be Bottom developing.Bottom fishing. The journey to a bottom, ( so far ) stopped at 3.28/3.40, then Rallied to a peak around 7.25 area. The standard 50% Fib pullback becomes the 5.30 area. And the extended Fib zone highlighted is 5.80/5.30/4.80 as main targets. We're at the 5.80 now. Lower targets are in play, in my view.🎱 🫣 Wherever this downwave pullback finally holds, including the 4.80 target.... can still be a bullish recovery pattern, as long as it does hold the intermediate wave pattern, make higher lows, and then upwave above 7.40 again, start targeting 8/9/10 etc.... making a recovery and confirming that Bottom at 3.28/3.40. 5.85 now is too high for me in this pattern, to hold, I think it needs to test the 5.50/5.30 maybe 5.00 area and then rally big from there. The next major double, 5.00 to 10.00 target.👍️
That's correct.🙂. Especially in a zig zag zone like this. How'd you like today's tumble down. Completely erasing the last 2 days of climbing. Don't you pay attention to the points of resistance and support? I'm sure you must.
What are the odds we might see the tumble continue into the 5's? 🤔 The previous downwave in the zone held at 6.
I trade like everyone else, I make a trade when price hits my buy target. My next buy might be 5.50 if it gets there.
Well, tbh, the price is moving.... within this Zone. Zig zag. Climbing steps now, into resistance. Let's see what resistance does this week, and also what support does. You can see the zone , top to bottom.centered around 6.50.
7.15/7.00 .......6.60/6.50/6.40........ 6.00/5.85
Climbing up and down 5 and 10 cent steps, that turn into 30 cent moves, up and back down. A Churning zig zag pattern , in this zone. An upward step today, 2 in a row, more resistance overhead, and tomorrow will be more important than today,if it follows through with another jump up. Testing the key resistance around 6.70 Ultimately, price has to break out of this zig zag zone.
Price churning up and down small steps. Up down up down. Is there some reason that MM's would stubbornly hold price support at 6 dollars ? When 5.75/5.50 is such an inviting technical target. 🤔
magic magnetic price pinpoint 🎱 🫣 5.35 says my robotic a.i.brainchip.😊
You're welcome.
Watch the battle zone zig zag until a decisive breakout move is made. Below 6 or above 6.80. Price is churning in this zone ,like today, and past several days. Not every analysis requires a forecast, a prediction, most times it is just to watch the pattern develop. And discerning the clues as they develop.towards decision moments, right? I identified this zig zag target zone a few weeks ago. Centered around 6.50. Pullback targets 6.00/5.50/5.00.
The peak that surged briefly to 7.00/7.25 was an overshoot. So the resistance around 6.80-6.50 has strength. The support holding now at 6.00 could break down anytime in coming days.Bottom fishing zone looks like 5.75-5.25 to me.currently. Is there any reason why the MA'S would need to keep price above 6? If they can push it down to test 5 again.
There's more meaning to your comment than just sarcasm. // Today's tumble back down, after yesterday's surge is very much what to expect ...in this zig zag price battle zone. It was centered last week around 6.40, (6.60-6.20) ... but now has been bleeding down to test 6.00, and resistance now includes 6.15/6.20/6.30, and every step in the muddy zig zag zone , between 6.00 and 6.50, and we have seen 30,50 cent surges, and also plunges ,a noticable move, not baby steps, ... but that jump ,followed the next day by an equal plunge... thats what I expect in a price battle zone. The next few days could jump from 6.10 to 6.60, or tumble from 6.25 to 5.75
The bleeding down game is still happening, but approaches and makes lower lows carefully and a bit sneaky. I feel the current bias is looking to bleed lower, toward the targets around 5.70, maybe 5.50 some day. But of course I can be proven wrong. Support now is a wedge cutting across 6.00 .If 6.00 breaks down, the next 30 cent target step is around 5.70
Price bleeds and tumbles down, hits the 6 dollar target.
Resistance overhead like a zone of ground fog, many resistance pivot magnet points the whole way to 6.80, any step could get attacked. There could be another 1 dollar move developing. Like 6.45 to 5.45. as the downwave target, or 1 dollar up ,like 6.25 to 7.25. Odds look fairly even to me at the moment. The battle zone is still grinding around 6.30-6.60- and stretches downward to 6.00 now. bleeding downward. Resistance shoulder zone /battle zone 6.30-6.60 area. to continue watching.
If price gets pushed and bled down into the 5's.. I sense the buying pressure will build strongly from 5.75 to 5.45, not sure sellers and shorts can push it to the low 5's. The key moving averages around 5.70/5.50 area look magnetic. Overshooting to test 5.40 ? might be best bargain? Below that needs a selling momentum.Is selling and shorting the current sentiment right now? I'm think it's more bullish right now. Bottom fishing looks like 5.75 to 5.30 area for me.
Yep, and it can be tricky to distinguish among the different pathways. I'm looking for a moment at the previous run from the 7.50 area in fall 2023, anticipating good news, the rally surged to 10.00/10.40, and then bad news collapsed the pattern.
Mike, it's a common chart pattern, to be expected, as I described days before it began. The chart picture can be plotted days ahead, as a road map to watch how it plays out. The price will move sooner or later, but has to fight a battle right here 6.25/6.50/6.75, that's why I called it a battle zone. To win the next 1 dollar target in either direction.
The price action playing field... what we can see in front of us, is the zone here 6.00-6.50-7.00. It could be stretched at both ends to include the 5.50 area and that key MA there, and on the top side, the double top around 7.40 call it 7.50..... so the middle zone is 6.50 and we're watching price zig zag up and down here. So it develops a triangle terminal that has to break somewhere, a floor around 6 dollars is waiting to fall into the 5's. If the market movers intend to pull it down, it will get there. I agree with the assorted targets you're looking at. from 5 to 10 , I'd like to enjoy a surge to 10 and sell some trading shares for me, but that kind of move needs big news. I'm not expecting big news at this time, should we be expecting big news soon? Otherwise, I think it would take a little pumping to reach 8 dollars anytime soon. The current battle is grinding around 6.50 now and not showing eager buying. A little news could be a needed push.
I don't tell anyone to do anything. Maybe your post is for someone else. But I look at the details on the chart. This week, we saw a peak at resistance 7.10 plunge down a dollar to 6.10. And then we saw a zig zag battle in the zone 6.70-6.20, which remains a battle zone to finish the week unresolved. This is a chart pattern, head and shoulders pattern, the resistance, right shoulder zone, where price has to fight and win a battle between support (6.25 area) versus resistance (6.70 area).Looking at the details on the 5 minute chart shows main target/pivot point lines across 7.10/6.70/6.45/6.10 . and a few other points to watch in that zone. 6.35/6.60 .it's a zone, fighting a battle. My own bids are way down around 5.50, so I'm just watching and waiting here.
If I was a first time buyer now, I would probably have started buying around 4 dollars, and 3.50, months ago, and buying at 4, 5, maybe up to 6 dollars, and now waiting for the 5's again. But I'm not a first time buyer.
I have a full investment, and I'm just buying and trimming trading shares while we wait for the pie in the sky. 🥧
Yes, I like that one even better.👍️
...that NYT headline sounds great... but what if the headline ends up a little different in the alt. media that reports on corruption....
"New drug holds great promise ...but Big pharma and FDA gatekeepers block the door".
We got a fair bounce today, back into the resistance shoulder zone around 6.60.
So the picture I'm seeing hasn't changed.... a battle zone around 6.40-6.90, waiting to hold 6.40 area and rally 1 or 2 dollars, or...a resistance capping around 6.80/6.60 goes downwave to target your 5.75 line of critical support. I have that support shoulder zone as 6.00/5.75/5.50/5.25 to watch. And 5 dollars looks like a major 'bargain' at this point. Don't we have key MA'S at 5.50 and 5.75 ? And sometimes it overshoot, so my sweet spot is around 5.30 area, and that's a 50% Fib retrace in the big chart picture. From 3.30 to 7.30..... 5.30
Some investors study the price action.
Sab is a knowledgeable experienced trader/investor worth paying attention to.
Steve... you spoke too soon...😁... Look what the "sellers" did today.... plunging down a dollar. Like it was nothing. Shows the price can be tossed around like the rag doll AVXL always does. Now the same resistance zone is waiting at 6.50-6.90, or even here at 6.30. We could see them tumble the price into the 5's before the week is done.