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How many times have I heard in the past 12 years, from very successful business people, "Man, I would love to get my hands on that company for one month."
No one needs 180 days to make a plan and start implementing. And no one in their right mind would ever declare it publicly! Fix the BoD, fix the share structure and giddyup! BIEL has competition, other than itself!
Can't disagree, but Ver:2.0 is still keeping the praise on hold. The past is the past, we need to throw it in the toilet and flush! Praise flows when the first deal is announced, regardless of the product launch date down the road.
It's the 'announcement' of the first major deal that is crucial - get that done and other deals will follow right on behind. It's called planning! Company needs to stop thinking about whose pocket will be picked tomorrow and create a real plan!
How about this - Announce one deal every 2-4 weeks for the next 4 months, starting with this week! Be vague, do not reveal trade info, protect the business position, but do something!
Fix the BoD, fix the absurd share structure, stop living in the past, get mumsy out of the Chair and off the BoD (what's with that nonsense?), run the business with head, not heart and stop twittering. It's non-productive and dumb, amateur.
The 180 day rubbish should prove out to be a silly rook mistake. Such antics have no place in a professional management environment, one in which the world has turned upside down and things are changing hourly. A 1,000 bed hospital just tied up in NYC.
I'll cut KK current CEO some slack for grief, but we are now 180 days out - 6 months from when the mind cramp occurred. So, call it a rook mistake, means nothing, fix the BoD, fix the absurd share structure, work the deals, nose to the grindstone, build up and encourage the team, stop twittering.
Correct.....America is not in a state of suspended animation - I said the whole world is, including America! Try and reserve a table for eat-in dinner at a restaurant. Or order a drink in a bar. Or see a dentist. Best driving ranges in the world now? Airports!
Before the start of another week, I'm gonna say my senses still tell me something is up. Any delay in announcing a deal would have been stupid, just to delay it until closer to the 180 day success window absurdity.
A delay, caused by wisdom, as the world goes into suspended animation for who knows how long would be good management. The 2nd biggest market for ActiPatch, after the general acute and chronic public, is athletics. With global athletics in hibernation, all sports, all seasons, all pro leagues, Olympics, waiting to announce and launch may be prudent.
Not a real delay - a pandemic deep breath. No one could ever have predicted anyone dropping the COVID-19 ball and having a pandemic virus outbreak as the result. No one is stupid enough to have done this deliberately, it's a dropped ball. No problem, it takes 4 to 6 months to gear up an OEM product launch anyway. Nothing wrong with a summer launch!
Always been a huge question as to whether BIEL was in the right hands with respect to management. Clearly, with former CEO, the report card was a D-. The current CEO has shown nothing but fluff and a weird 180 and it'll be successful flag wave. If not, blame will be laid elsewhere. If realized? "I did it!" screamed from the sp toilet.
I have no interest in watching a self-appointed current CEO trial and error learn. Absurd! Fix the BoD and stupid share structure KK, the one the regulators wrote about. Get rid of the toxic name - should be embarrassed.
All that should be chrystal clear now and exposes exactly why the Whelans, IBEX and St. John's should simply surrender and disappear all their free-gotten shares, except for, say, 7 billion and allow the company to breathe in a healthier way and rise on any significant announcement.
It may be interesting to know that numerous large shareholders have suggested 7 billion is too high. That number was simply my suggestion. Clean up the absurd share structure KK and get rid of the name toxicity of the current BoD, left by the former CEO, while increasing the Directors to 5. Fix it KK and help your family get very wealthy!
The only saving grace is the ActiPatch works....truly a miracle! The rest is stink, which is why the family needs to disappear and let the amazing BIEL team take the company to the moon!
And the former CEO bragged to a couple of people that he learned the trick from a couple of vulture lenders from New York. He called them slimey, imagine! He didn't like that they made a couple of million in the play, and not him, so he blew them out and inserted himself and KK and IBEX and St. John's in their place and the self-dealing began in earnest! Don't ask me how I know!
Which is why KK Whelan and mummy should have and should still 'disappear' themselves and stay quietly at home to get rid of the stink of the for CEO, 12 years in the no deal sp toilet and let the amazing BIEL team take it over the goal line!
Fix the absurd BoD, the outrageous share structure by off loading many billions of shares onto that same toilet and let BIEL soar. We'll see is KK is smart enough to sit in the chair or too thick to see the wisdom!
Move the meetings to Krispy Kreme in the Westview Village just up the road and I'm there!
I rarely speculate, just guesses.
If there is a major announcement of a solid deal with a large US player, with a major existing market share in the US healthcare/medical/pain space - .004 to .01 cents, settles, who knows where....
If any wisdom whatsoever prevails on fixing the stupid BoD makeup and # of Directors AND the absurd share structure .008 to 1.5 cents, with higher probability of sustainability.
Make the toxic Whelan name disappear? Add 1.5 cents, sustainability and stays out of the toilet.
And all of that information clearly reveals the toxicity of the current CEO, without any reference to the dictatorship and shenanigans of the previous CEO and why the Whelan name should never have surfaced anywhere after October 7th.
They just couldn't do the smart thing. Wisdom is not a family trait- the former CEO had a 5 year SEC Bar on any dealings concerning penny stocks. Thank goodness for the great people on the BIEL team and caring shareholders.
That red flag would have evaporated October 7th. Duhhhh.
Could have, should have been, "I'm a ghost, I've got this Shareholders!"
Instead, we get,
"Call me, this is what I'll tell you!"
"No one forced you to buy shares!"
"If you don't like it leave!"
"I absolutely ignore all naysayers!"
No question the BoD and absurd share structure can and should be fixed, common sense to do so, arrogant defiance not to. Same traits as Mr. No, 'I'll do it myself' - "No!" To CVS, Dr. Scholl's and KT Tape. He didn't do it himself - he did it TO himself, no succession, no plan, no deals, no nuthin and in the sp toilet for 13 years! Yup, 'I got this!
All just went from inept to defiantly unprofessional. I'll do what I want, I'll do it myself and if you call, here's what I'll tell you.
Sit back, close your eyes and imagine. Is this how a successful CEO of a breakthrough public US company behaves?
Problem is the current CEO didn't 'invite' people to please call her or seek their advice in a spirit of cooperation.
She exhibited idiosyncrasies of the former defiant and obnoxious CEO by actually challenging shareholders who wanted only to help, abrasively.
"Go ahead call me and if you do, here's what I'll tell you! Rant, rant, rant!" In the C-Suite of any successful enterprise, not only by an over-controlling CEO, executives "sell", they don't "tell". And they most certainly don't yell.
It is an amazing testimonial to the miracle device, ActiPatch, that every member of the BIEL team is professional, respectful, dignified and pleasant. Not hard to imagine the sentiments of those working with the former CEO.
This is not a personal attack, quite the contrary, the former CEO could be pleasant and funny, but, watch out for the prevailing personality traits, more than one! He was in failing health for years, everyone knew it and discussed it at length. He refused to budge, everyone was stupid and he would do it all himself and in his way, and at the end he did. I am still both sad and irritated, at him, didn't have to be.....
This is a last chance for BIEL and ActiPatch to achieve success and it wouldn't have happened under the former dictatorship, I mean, regime.
Words to the wise, drop the unnecessary abrasive DNA 'chip on the shoulder', become the kindest, most personable CEO on the planet, be a creative 'team player', never, ever twitter, listen respectfully, say please and thank you, get a real Board of Directors, fix the stupid share structure. If you can't do all those things, adapt to the role, be genuine and generous with others, and they are not difficult, then lead, follow or get out of the way!
Noooo...it's not a "my business" situation. BIEL is an "our business" entity, a public company. No question there are numerous shareholders who have invested much more hard cash and sweat equity than the Whelans and do not have 10's of billions of shares, when all the convertible notes held by IBEX and St. John's are redeemed.
"Why would I listen to anonymous people on a message board playing arm chair CEO with who knows knows what qualifications education or training criticize my every word?"
To my knowledge, no one has criticized the former or current CEO's every word, only the dismal mismanagement of a miracle pain remedy in the biggest market in the world for 12 years.
My opinion is that anyone with zero experience as a CEO or holding any management position, sales, marketing, administration, any positions, would be prudent to listen hard, period!
Most successes are the result of good planning, most failures, the lack of it. There has been a total lack of planning at BIEL, also for 12 years. The regulatory successes have been in spite of the Whelans, thanks to the others on the BIEL team! And squandered thus far by the Whelans.
Report Card in any public company? Dismal - terminate! 12 years of dismal results by the former CEO can not be explained or refuted. Results read!
To be very frank, I was disappointed, kind of 3rd world management style, 1950's in US. this is my company, this is how I run it, if you don't like it, leave.
Needs the right people in the right positions to maximize shareholder equity - any good B-School recipe....
Quote:
______________________________________
From: kwhelan@bielcorp.com
Date: March 19, 2020 at 3:14:14 PM EDT
To: xxxxxx
Subject: RE: BioElectronics Update
Mr. xxxxx,
Thank you! I appreciate the encouragement. It has been a tough year with a lot of personal loss. My father would expect that we carry-on and I intend to honor his memory by fulfilling his vision for BioElectronics Corporation. Fortunately for me, I am my father’s daughter and I can absolutely ignore naysayers. This team is going to knock it out of the park.
..........
Thank you again for taking the time to send me a personal note. I appreciate it.
All the best,
Kelly"
OMG!!! How disturbing. A word to the wise Madam current CEO.
Here's some common sense! The daughter's father was called by some polite people, 'stubborn'. Many more accurately labeled it 'defiance'. Smartest people, who knew him well, called it a personality flaw that ruined many things for him, including most relationships. He told numerous people he always loved a good fight. Often referred to other people as stupid, including employees, family members, shareholders, demeaned everyone, trusted no one. I know, because I heard them all. Most simply left quietly, tired of the crap. Ixnay on the father's daughter stuff, that will alienate everyone, be your own person!
History shows it was his biggest failing, he fought with everyone, unless he needed you and then fought with everyone left, after he got what he wanted. Wise people would never set out to deliberately or absolutely ignore naysayers or anyone for that matter! A naysayer could be imparting highly useful wisdom. If you're ever speaking to someone who has a mindset that they are preconditioned to absolutely ignore naysayers, you're speaking with an idiot! Only a foll doesn't change his or her mind. Scary stuff and not what successful CEO's are made of.
With numerous proclamations by the current CEO that nothing, not even COVID-19, will delay her success within her self-designed 180 day success window, it has become a self-serving drama.
"See, I delivered the success I predicted, within the time I said I would, aren't I the best ever? I did it! I did it!"
My senses are still telling me there is a deal in the offing, but where is Keith Nalepka? We must not forget the entire stellar BIEL team, that got us here.
It would appear that common sense will not prevail regarding the much needed management tweaks so necessary in a turnaround and that will be on the current CEO too. The 3 Director BoD only made the company compliant because the by-laws require 3. But it is a stacked 2 Whelan Director game, plus Keith Napeka nothing changed. Why not a dynamic BoD of innovative, experienced business people, that would be a plan.
On disgorging what SEC documents referred to somewhere as ill-gotten shares, nothing will happen, it's late in the day to create a win there. Whelans do control tens of billions of shares through conversion of convertible notes, held by the now infamous IBEX and St. Johns, for shares. No question in my mind that the upside in sp will be less as a result. The stock will not run as hard or high, with the same upside sustainability, on announcement of a deal. Could have been so much different, too bad.
Wrong - missing a subsequent component that changed everything with the SEC.
Most smart investors and fund guys have completed their re-balancing from say 75%-25% to 90%-10% or better, to catch the upward momentum. Can you imagine how much cash is sitting watching for those buy points? Most haven't heard much about the Pinks, but an announcement by a major in the pain space, and BIEL, would provide hi-octane for BIEL, providing the current CEO undoes the horrific damage caused by the former CEO in areas of deal-making (not), BoD, governance and the absurd share structure.
I’ve combined a few thoughts, in review. Question now is will the current CEO clean up the outrageous share structure and become the heroic darling of the corporate pharma/pain space before deals are announced, so the stock can fly to the sustainable levels it deserves? The sustained success of BIEL for all shareholders will best be achieved by getting all the ducks in a row at the right time and share structure is the key one.
The Whelans need to 'disappear' 28 billion of their 35 billion shares or so, reduce their holdings to 7 billion, protect the Corp from hostility by aligning with 'friends' and make a ton of money when deals are announced. 35 billion shares at $.0009 is the same as 7 billion at $.0045, so, if 'disappearing' a lot of the stock IBEX received as a result of churning the revolver financing model allows the stock to climb, farther than otherwise, to a sustainable spot in pennyland, versus not, then just get it done! Remaining in the toilet bowl versus sustainable pennyland!
No question, in my mind, that BIEL could be a guiding light out of the cauldron of CV despair if the share structure is fixed and a turnaround announced at the same time as one or more deals with majors. Announce the steps taken. Announce an expanded BoD. Such announcements and a broader distribution of news of ActiPatch, FDA cleared, USPTO patented, drug-free, side-effect free miniaturized pain remediation device? Bye bye toilets! Stock soars!!!
If she doesn't fix the absurd share structure, caused by the former CEO, before any announcement of a deal, then BIEL will not run as high or have the sp sustainability, as if she had fixed it. That will be her legacy, too little or ne at all, too late. The history of BIEL.
Quite frankly, I don't care what the former CEO did or didn't do, nothing would surprise me. Or anyone else for that matter.
Blame it all, if anything, on him, use the masterful defendant plea, "I didn't understand what he was making me sign, he bullied me!" And get on with it! Just get on with it!
If the current CEO has the euphamistic cajones to increase the BoD and fix the outrageous share structure, as repeatedly suggested, she will be applauded for years! Depends on how well she was toilet trained for the last 12 years or so. We'll see.
Pix, I've referred to such a courageous announcement being like a positive beacon of hope and light in previous posts.
Drug-free, side-effect free, etc., etc., pain device - it would be an amazing positive, in a sea of negative news and should be referred to as such in any press release!
"During these times of tremendous global stress, caused by the Coronavirus pandemic, BioElectronics is pleased to announce that etc., etc......"
And don't think for a second the Chinese people would not be delighted. Their citizens must not be blamed for any delay in reporting details of COVID-19 to the world. I suspect the delay and suppression will be tracked to a few fearful idiots in Wuhan who decided to keep it under wraps. A dozen morons can cause a lot of trouble in a system based on secrecy and fear!
Big opportunity for BIEL! I woul play the hell out of it and get all the mileage I could.
My senses are still twitching that a deal or two ate done, because of the style of communications out of BIEL.
If there is a one hour delay in announcing, other than for increasing the size of the BoD or resolving the outrageous share structure, as suggested, with a blockbuster deal announcement, then the world will reflect on the idiocies of a management that let's competitors sell their goods one day longer than necessary, so someone can be right about a phoney, self-serving 180 day 'non-deadline'. That would win moronic management move of the century!
"BioElectronics is especially pleased at the timing of this announcement, given media information circulating that some drug based pain medications may cause additional adverse side-effects in Coronavirus sufferers, in addition to possible side-effects experienced by the general population.
Drug based medications should only be taken with caution and with a Physician's advice whenever recommended. ActiPatch, BioElectronics cornerstone pain remediation device is both drug-free and side-effect free."
Here's hoping this helps all those interested in BIEL and its shareholders. I share this in a spirit of giving. The post below was written by a great American, living with his family in Seattle, Jason Warner and addresses two underlying issues with the current response to the pandemic that leave many concerned. It’s the longest post Jason has ever written. It may save your life and a life in your family. I am taking the initiative to share it in the hope it will help you, knowing that time is critical and getting the virus message out even moreso. Best heads up I've seen.
QUOTE - For those of you not taking action, or believing the pandemic to be “over hyped”, you can make fun of me as much as you want now or when this is over. You can make me the subject of memes and post it
everywhere. I will pose for the picture. I am not trying to convince you, but I do feel compelled to share information that I deem critical to all of us, which is why I am posting this at all.
WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE 5 MINUTES TO READ AND CONSIDER THE INFORMATION I
AM SHARING:
As of 3/15/20 at 9 am PST this post has been shared over 50k times since it was posted 2 days ago. So a lot of people find value in the post and although it's a long read, I believe you will find this information valuable too.
For those of you who don’t know me well, I am analytical and metered. I don’t freak out nor do I respond emotionally. I also don’t post a bunch of bullshit or political or controversial stuff on Facebook. I founded and am CEO of a successful software company that provides SaaS based data, analytics, and dashboards to recruiting departments at companies we all know. As you would expect, I am data driven and fact based. Before founding my company I held executive roles leading very large recruiting teams at some of the world's fastest growing companies such as Starbucks and Google. At Google I was fortunate enough to report to Sheryl Sandberg before she took the Facebook COO role. I was a Chemical Engineering major in college and have a business degree from a top undergraduate business school. I am not one for hyperbole or histrionics. My bullshit factor is close to zero.
I share all this personal information only to help solidify that this post may be worth reading and sharing with others. I would encourage you to forward or share this post at your discretion. Many people do not understand what is happening with the pandemic to the degree required which is why I took the time to write this and share this on Facebook.
Now that I've gotten the introduction out of the way, here are two issues I want to bring to everyone’s attention.
ISSUE ONE: SOCIAL NORMS ARE POWERFUL MOTIVATORS AND GETTING IN THE WAY OF PEOPLE TAKING THE RIGHT STEPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PANDEMIC:
One of the current problems with addressing the pandemic is the social pressures of taking action today. It's awkward, and feels like an over-reaction. The reason it feels like an overreaction is that most people OVERWEIGHT the currently reported cases and inherently UNDERWEIGHT the mathematics of how the virus is spreading and what will happen in about 30 days time. This is because our brains tend to think linearly as opposed to logarithmically. It’s the same reason many people don’t save for retirement or understand compound interest.
To create a new social norm, human beings like to see behavior modeled. This serves as a signal that says, “oh, someone else is doing it so I should do it also.”
SO HERE IS A SOCIAL BENCHMARK FOR REFERENCE - THIS IS WHAT I’VE DONE
FOR MY FAMILY TO DATE:
I have already isolated my family. We have canceled EVERYTHING. We have canceled previously scheduled doctor visits. Social get togethers. No play dates. Normal routine meetings. Everything has
been canceled. It's difficult and socially awkward. Some of you think I’m crazy, but I’m doing it not because I am afraid, but because I am good at math (more on that in part 2). I had to have my 16 year old daughter quit her job coaching junior gymnasts at the local gym, with one day’s notice and also tell my kids they can't attend youth group at church. Both of those were tough discussions. I told a very close friend he shouldn’t stay at my house this weekend even though he was planning to and had booked his flight from the Bay Area. I canceled another dear friend’s visit for later this month to go snowboarding on Mt Bachelor.
We are not eating out. Our kids are already doing online school so we don’t have to make changes there. I would not send my kids to school even if they were in public or private school. We have
eliminated all non-essential contact with other people. We will only venture out to grocery shop when required. We will still go outside to parks, go mountain biking, hiking, and recreate to keep ourselves
sane and do other things as a family, just not with other people. We have stocked up on food and have a supply for ~2 months. We have stocked up on other goods that if depleted would create
hardship, like medicines and feminine hygiene products. We have planned for shortages of essential items.
THE REASON I HAVE CHOSEN THIS ROUTE FOR MY FAMILY IS MULTI FACETED:
1. Although my family is considered low risk (I’m 49 in good health, Angi is 46 and in good health, and our kids are 14 and 16), we must assume that the healthcare system cannot help us, because the
hospitals will become overwhelmed very quickly. Most American hospitals will become overwhelmed in approximately 30 days unless something changes. More on this in part 2 below. So although we are
in great health and unlikely to become gravely ill, the risk is greater if you do not have access to the medical care that you need. This is something for everyone to consider. As a society we are
accustomed to having access to the best medical care available. Our medical system will be overwhelmed unless we practice social distancing at scale. That said, the medical teams in Italy are
seeing an alarming number of cases from people in their 40s and 50s. Triage tents are already going up in the parking lots at many hospitals close to the epicenters in the United States.
2. It’s not a matter of if social distancing will take place, it’s only a critical matter of when. This is because social distancing is the only way to stop the virus today.
As I will explain in part 2 below, starting now is FAR more effective than starting even 2 days from now or tomorrow. This has been proven by Italy and China (and soon to be France and other European
countries who have been slow to respond.) [updated as of 3/14 France is now on lockdown mandated by the government]. Wuhan went on lockdown after roughly 400 cases were identified (and they
had access to testing that America has systematically failed to do well to date). The US already has more than 4 times this number of known infected cases as Wuhan did when it was shut down, and our
citizens are far more mobile and therefore spreading the virus more broadly when compared to Wuhan. Yet our response is tepid at best.
If hand washing and “being smart” were sufficient Italy would not be in crisis. So I pray the draconian measures are coming from our government, because they are required to stop the spread of the
virus. It’s better to start sooner than later as the cost is actually far greater if we wait. I pray they close all schools and non-essential services the way that Italy and China have done.
3. Spreading the virus puts those in the high-risk category at much greater risk. This is the moral argument. It’s a strong argument because there are only two ways, as of today, that the virus can be stopped: let it run its course and infect 100s of millions of people, or social distancing. There is no other way today. If you don’t practice social distancing, people downstream from you that you transmit the virus to will die, and many will suffer.
4. The risk of infection is increasing exponentially, because the quantity of infected people, most who will not show symptoms, is doubling every three days. So the longer you wait to self-isolate, the greater the chance of you or someone you love becoming infected and then you infecting others because more of the population is becoming infected. There are twice as many infected people today as there was on Tuesday.
5. The virus is already in your town. It’s everywhere. Casesare typically only discovered when someone gets sick enough to seek medical attention. This is important as it typically takes ~5 days
to START showing ANY symptoms. Here’s the math: For every known case there are approximately 50 unknown cases. This is because if I become sick, I infect several people today, and they infect a few
people each tomorrow (as do I), and the total count of infected people doubles every 3 days until I get so sick I get hospitalized or get tested and become a “known case”. But in the time it takes me to
figure out I am sick 50 others downline from me now have the virus. So every third day the infection rate doubles until I get so sick that I realize I have the virus an am hospitalized or otherwise tested. Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital estimate that there are 50x more infections than known infections as reported (citation below). The implication of this is that the virus is already “everywhere” and spreading regardless if your city has zero, few or many reported cases. So instead of the 1573 reported known cases today there are likely 78,650 cases, at least, in the United States. Which will double to 157,300 by this Sunday.
And this will double to 314,600 cases by this coming Wednesday. So in less than 1 week the number of total infected in the United States will quadruple. This is the nature of exponential math.
It’s actually unfortunate that we are publishing the figures for known cases as it diverts attention away from more important numbers (like the range of estimated actual cases). [Update as of 3/15/20 -
I've been sent more research that may add clarity to the ACTUAL cases vs CONFIRMED cases and will update this post with any conclusions]
6. Some people cannot, or will not, practice social distancing for a variety of reasons and will continue to spread the virus to many people. So everyone else must start today.
The reasons above are why I have begun to practice social distancing. It’s not easy. But you should do it too.
The hospitals will be at capacity and there are not enough ventilators. You will hear a lot about this issue in the coming few weeks... the shortage of ventilators.
ISSUE TWO: MANY PEOPLE ARE FOCUSED ON THE WRONG NUMBERS:
Yes, the virus only kills a small percentage of those afflicted.
Yes, the flu kills 10s of thousands of people annually.
Yes, 80% of people will experience lightweight symptoms with COVID19.
Yes the mortality rate of COVID19 is relatively low (1-2%).
All of this true, but is immaterial. They are the wrong numbers to focus on...
The nature of exponential math is that the infection rates start slowly, and then goes off like a bomb and overwhelms the hospitals. You will understand this math clearly in the next section if you do the short math exercise. Evergreen hospital in Seattle is already in triage. I have heard credible reports from
people on the ground that they are already becoming overwhelmed. And the bomb won't really go
off for a few more days. Probably by Wednesday, March 18th (next week). In just a few days from now we will hear grave reports from Seattle hospitals. [update as of 3/15/20 - see the comments section
below for an update from a staff member at Evergreen Hospital in Kirkland, WA]
You should assume the virus is everywhere at this point, even if you have no confirmed cases in your area.
YOU SHOULD DO THIS SIMPLE 2 MINUTE MATH EXERCISE (NO REALLY TAKE TWO
MINUTES AND DO IT):
To further understand exponential growth, take the number of confirmed cases in your area and multiply by 10 (or 50 if you believe Harvard and Massachusetts General estimations) to account for the
cases that are not yet confirmed. If you have no confirmed cases choose a small number. I’d suggest 10 cases in your city, if no cases are yet reported. But you can use whatever number you like. This number of infected people doubles every ~3 days as the infection spreads. So literally take your number, and multiply by 2.
Then do it again. Then do it again. Then do it again. Do this multiplication exercise 10 times in total.
2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x (the number of estimated infections in your city today (not just the reported cases)).
This result is the estimate for the actual cases in your area 30 days from now. The math will take 30 seconds to complete with a calculator and it’s worth doing the math to see how it grows.
This end number is the number of cases in your city 30 days from today if a large percentage of the population do not practice social distancing.
2 to the 10th power is 1024. When something doubles 10 times, it's the same as multiplying by 1024. The infection rate of the virus doubles every 3 days. In thirty days, there will be 1,024 times the number of infected people in your area as there is today if your community does not immediately put social distancing into practice.
One thousand and twenty four times as many infected people as there is today, in just 30 days.
Next, divide the final number (the scary big one) you just calculated by the current population of your city and you will be able to get the percentage of people THAT YOU KNOW PERSONALLY who will be
infected 30 days from now.
Next take 15% (multiply by 0.15) of that final 30 day number of total infected people (the number you calculated by multiplying by 2 ten times). This will provide an estimate of the serious cases which will
require hospitalization, and compare it to the number of beds and ventilators available at your local hospital. Google the "number of beds" and the name of your local hospital now. It takes 2 seconds and the number of beds is easy to find. 65% of beds are already occupied by patients unrelated to the coronavirus. St Charles in Bend, Oregon where I live, has 226 beds and the town is roughly 100,000 people. Most hospitals have on average, 40 or fewer ventilators. 5% of patients require ICU treatment. There are very few ICU beds compared to regular beds in hospitals. There are very few negative pressure areas in any hospital to deal with the containment of airborne diseases.
These numbers you just calculated are the Big Problem: Too many patients, not enough beds, and a serious shortage of ventilators (the biggest problem) if we don't immediately begin social distancing.
More on this biggest problem related to the insufficient quantity of ventilators is below.
COUNTRIES THAT GET OVERWHELMED WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER MORTALITY RATE BECAUSE THEY WON’T BE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY CARE FOR THE SICK.
And by sick I mean not just coronavirus patients. Your son or daughter that needs acute care surgery this May for his badly broken leg will be attended to by an orthopedic doctor that has been working at maximum capacity and working 18 hour shifts for 7 days every week for 6 weeks because it was required to care for all the coronavirus patients at her hospital. Or the orthopedic surgeon will be sick with the virus and your son or daughter will be operated on in a tent in the hospital parking lot by a non-expert or a member of the National Guard. Your elderly Mom that has diabetes and goes into acute distress next month may not receive ANY medical care because the doctors are consumed and have to prioritize patients based on triage guidelines based on success rate probabilities. Your sibling’s family that are all injured in a terrible car crash in June will have diminished care. If one of them needs a ventilator there will be none available because all of them will be in use by critical coronavirus patients. Your young friend with cancer and a compromised immune system from treatment will succumb even though the cancer was curable and the treatment was working, because their body was too fragile to combat the coronavirus due to the chemotherapy and they couldn't receive the customized, acute care required due to the hospital being overwhelmed. All of the above is currently happening in Italy, who had the same number of infections we have today just 2 weeks ago. You must start social distancing today.
The count of actual virus infections doubles every ~3 days. The news and government agencies are lagging in their response. So we hear that the US only has 1573 cases today (3/12/20) [update as of
3/15/20: 3115 confirmed cases), ( seehttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) and it doesn't seem like a lot. It would be better to report the estimated actual cases, since reported cases don’t tell us much. However, we know from China that the actual number of cases are at least an order of magnitude greater than the reported cases, because people get infected and do not display symptoms. In math, an "order of magnitude" means ten times difference, or put another way, a factor of 10. 100 is 10 times greater than 10, so it's an order of magnitude greater.
Harvard Medical School / Massachusetts General Hospital just released their estimate (recording is here:
https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/53a4003de5ab4b4da5902f078744435a1d)
that the actual cases are 50x greater than the reported cases. So we likely have 75,000 cases in the United States already. The number of reported cases is not that important.
But let’s assume the current number of cases is only 10,000 ACTUAL cases in the United States just to be conservative and model out what will happen:
If we don’t stop the virus from spreading, in 30 days we will have 2 to the 10th power more cases of infected people because the infection count doubles every 3 days (the virus doubles every 3 days
and there are 10, 3 day periods in 30 days).
The math: 2 to the 10th power means 1,024 times as many cases as we have today (2 times 2 repeated 10 times).
This number is a catastrophically big problem for all of us: We will have 10 million+ actual cases (10,000 actual cases today x 1,024) in the United States in just 30 days’ time if we continue without extreme social distancing. 10 million people with the virus. And it will keep doubling every 3 days unless we practice social distancing.
15% of cases require significant medical attention, which means that 1.5 million people will require significant medical attention if 10 million people get infected (15% of 10 Million total infections =
1.5 million people requiring hospitalization).
1.5 million hospitalizations is way more than we have beds for at hospitals in the United States. And 65% of all beds are already occupied in our hospitals. But many patients (5%) with the virus need ICU beds, not just any old hospital bed. Only about 10% of hospital beds are considered intensive care beds. So we will have a huge bed shortage, but that is not the biggest problem, as we can erect temporary ICU shelters and bring in more temporary beds, as Italy has already done, and California and Washington hospitals have already done. Evergreen Hospital in Seattle has already erected temporary triage tents in the parking lot as of 3/13/20. All regular beds are full at Evergreen Hospital as of yesterday.
Once the government of China, Norway, and Italy came to understand this math, they reacted accordingly and shut EVERYTHING down. [update as of 3/15/20 now France has done the same lockdown]. Extreme social distancing is the only response available to stop the virus today. The United States is not responding well nor are other countries like the UK. Countries that do not respond well will pay a much larger, catastrophic price.
But hospital beds are not the big problem. The lack of ventilators is the big problem. Most estimates peg the ventilators in the United States at roughly 100,000 to 150,000 units. See the study from last
month:
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/200214-VentilatorAvailability-factsheet.pdf
The primary and most serious comorbid (comorbid is a medical term that means co-existing or happening at the same time) condition brought on by the Coronavirus is something called bilateral
interstitial pneumonia which requires ventilators for treatment of seriously ill patients. So if 1.5M people of the 10 million infected 30 days from now require hospital care (15% of the 10M estimated
total infections), 1.3M may not get the care that they need because we don’t have enough ventilators, beds, and ICU beds in the United States. And remember, this is only if ALL OF US EFFECTIVELY start
social distancing by April 11th (30 days from today). This increases the mortality rate significantly.
BUT IF WE START EXTREME SOCIAL DISTANCING BY MARCH 23 (12 days from original writing), WE AVOID OVER 1.4 MILLION PEOPLE GETTING CRITICALLY ILL AND OVERWHELMING THE HOSPITALS:
If everyone takes extreme measures to social distance, and the United States can dramatically reduce the spread of the virus 12 days from now, the math is very different, as the exponential growth will only
be 2 to the 4th power (12 days divided by the doubling rate of every 3 days equals the exponent of 4):
2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16
So instead of 10 Million cases in the United States if we wait 30 days, if we act 18 days sooner, we will have only 160,000 cases (16 times the estimated 10,000 actual cases as of today), of which 15% are likely to require hospitalization. This is 24,000 critical patients (a huge difference compared to 1.5 million acute patients). The difference between taking extreme measures now, versus waiting even a few days, is very large due to how exponents work in math.
THE OUTCOME IS EVEN BETTER IF WE TAKE ACTION IN THE NEXT 6 DAYS: If the vast majority of the population self isolates and implements social distancing in only 6 days from now the exponential math is 2 to the 2nd power (6 days divided by the 3 days it takes the virus to double means the exponent is only 2). In math this is "two squared".
2 x 2 = 4
Multiplied by the estimated 10,000 ACTUAL cases as of today (3/12/20) that means only 40,000 total cases will develop, 15% of which may be critical which is 6,000 critical patients.
This is why you should share this post broadly. If people begin social distancing in the next 6 days it will greatly reduce the impact on all of us. It's why they say a "post goes viral".
SOCIAL DISTANCING WILL REDUCE THE FINANCIAL IMPACT TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILY:
Finally, the longer everyone waits to practice significant social distancing the greater the economic hardship will be on all of us. Lost jobs. Mortgage defaults. Closed businesses. Bankruptcies. All will be minimized if you start social distancing today.
Some of the reasons the economic impacts will be reduced are worth mentioning: If we stop the virus now the overall duration of the outbreak will be far shorter. The stock market will normalize more
quickly and recover more quickly. Businesses and people will be able to survive a shorter duration outbreak vs a longer duration outbreak. More companies will avoid bankruptcy if we begin to practice social distancing now.
This is a big financial reason to begin social distancing if you are employed by any company: if companies see that the virus is being slowed, they will be less likely to conduct layoffs. You will be
more likely to be laid off or experience a job-related event if we don’t practice social distancing immediately. As an HR executive, I’ve been involved in many, many layoffs. It’s the last thing
companies want to do. But if they see that the pandemic will be shorter lived vs long and drawn out, they are less likely to make the permanent decision of laying off staff.
The overall economic impact that hits your bank account will be greater if you wait or you don’t practice social distancing. This is why Norway acted now, because it’s less economic impact to take drastic measures early than to do them later, and it saves a lot of lives and suffering by doing so. And Norway has only one confirmed death as of this writing.
Many people have suggested they want to support local restaurants and other businesses, who have seen sales drop by 50-90%. Stopping by and visiting them won't save them. What will save them is social distancing and what you do after the pandemic is over. If you are concerned, call them and buy a gift certificate over the phone.
START TODAY. I CAN’T STRESS THIS ENOUGH. YOU MUST START TODAY.
Finally, the article that I posted yesterday written by Tomas Pueyo has been read 30M times in the last few days and has been updated with new information. It’s worth reading again.
Here’s that link.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Other up to date data I frequently consult regarding the pandemic is here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
I hope this is helpful and useful. My brain focuses on the math and I try and be fact based in my analysis and interpretation of how I should respond.
THERE IS MORE INFORMATION IN THE COMMENTS BELOW WORTH READING AND I WILL BE UPDATING THIS POST, AND THE COMMENTS, WITH MORE INFORMATION, (AS OPPOSED TO CREATING NEW POSTS).
MY FINAL PARTING THOUGHT: Please share or forward this post at your discretion. If everyone shares this post and two of your friends share this post and so on, we use the power of exponential math to
work in our favor, which seems appropriate given the virus is using that same exponential math against us.
HOW YOU CAN REALLY HELP: If you know people who have large numbers of followers, or people in the media, please leverage your personal relationship with them and ask them to amplify this post by sharing
it.
For people not on Facebook you can email or text the link. It would be useful to get the post on Twitter and LinkedIn. If you know people in government this fact-based post may help inform them to make the best decisions. It's time for us humans to go on the offensive against the virus. We must fight back.
There is only one way to do so: Social Distancing. Do it today.
NOTE: Anyone, including the media, is free to use this post, any related content, in all or in part, for any purpose, in any format, with no attribution required. Please direct message me if you have other ideas for how to raise awareness.
Finally, I can no longer keep up with friend requests given how much this post has been shared. To receive updates or follow me, please use the "Follow" button on Facebook.
My Instagram account is https://www.instagram.com/jason_scott_warner/
GO BIEL!!!!
Unfortunately for the CEO, the jury of numerous shareholders has already rendered its verdict and circulated it back channel. It's not pretty and almost 200 observers are quietly watching and wondering if I she can contradict that by doing something positive, anything.
So far, she has done nothing concrete except make Keith Nalepka a Director and single vote on a 3 vote BoD.
If she doesn't fix the absurd share structure, caused by the former CEO, before any announcement of a deal, then BIEL will not run as high or have the sp sustainability, as if she had fixed it. That will be her legacy, too little or none at all, too late. The history of BIEL.
I think, despite the lack of an announcement of a major deal, the BIEL team is fulfilling orders placed by many individual users, every day. It may represent peanuts in terms of revenue, but those loyal customers should be recognized for keeping the lights on to the extent they are. Every order counts!
Question now is will the current CEO clean up the outrageous share structure and become the heroic darling of the corporate pharma/pain space before deals are announced, so the stock can fly to the sustainable levels it deserves? The sustained success of BIEL for all shareholders will best be achieved by getting all the ducks in a row at the right time and share structure is the key one.
The Whelans need to 'disappear' 28 billion of their 35 billion shares or so, reduce their holdings to 7 billion, protect the Corp from hostility by aligning with 'friends' and make a ton of money when deals are announced. 35 billion shares at $.0009 is the same as 7 billion at $.0045, so, if 'disappearing' a lot of the stock IBEX received as a result of churning the revolver financing model allows the stock to climb to a sustainable spot in pennyland, versus not, then just get it done! Remaining in the toilet bowl versus sustainable pennyland!
No question, in my mind, that BIEL could be a guiding light out of the cauldron of CV despair if the share structure is fixed and a turnaround announced at the same time as one or more deals with majors. Announce the steps taken. Announce an expanded BoD. Such announcements and a broader distribution of news of ActiPatch, FDA cleared, USPTO patented, drug-free, side-effect free miniaturized pain remediation device? Bye bye toilets! Stock soars!!!
Even with the communication to shareholders, by the current CEO, who should be working on fixing the outrageous share structure from home, my senses are still twitching big time that something is up - it's just too quiet and VP Sales, Keith Nalepka has been silent . . . soon?
Question now is will the current CEO clean up the outrageous share structure and become the heroic darling of the corporate pharma/pain space before deals are announced, so the stock can fly to the sustainable levels it deserves? The sustained success of BIEL for all shareholders will best be achieved by getting all the ducks in a row at the right time and share structure is the key one.
The Whelans need to 'disappear' 28 billion of their 35 billion shares or so, reduce their holdings to 7 billion, protect the Corp from hostility by aligning with 'friends' and make a ton of money when deals are announced. 35 billion shares at $.0009 is the same as 7 billion at $.0045, so, if 'disappearing' a lot of the stock IBEX received as a result of churning the revolver financing model allows the stock to climb to a sustainable spot in pennyland, versus not, then just get it done! Remaining in the toilet bowl versus sustainable pennyland!
No question, in my mind, that BIEL could be a guiding light out of the cauldron of CV despair if the share structure is fixed and a turnaround announced at the same time as one or more deals with majors. Announce the steps taken. Announce an expanded BoD. Such announcements and a broader distribution of news of ActiPatch, FDA cleared, USPTO patented, drug-free, side-effect free miniaturized pain remediation device? Bye bye toilets! Stock soars!!!
"Does anyone recall my suggestion about the CDC, a petrie dish of COVID-19 and an ActiPatch?
Is it time now to announce an offer by BIEL to cooperate on testing ActiPatch and COVID-19 to determine if PEMF is efficacious in fighting a pandemic????
Sort of like getting on the mark and fixing the absurd share structure, as suggested, the Whelans 'disappearing' billions of shares to enable the stock to really take off and 'fly' when any major deal is announced.
Just once, in more than 12 years, I'd like BIEL to just be first, instead of 3/4 sleepy, in the toilet, just once! Keith Nalepka and his sales team are dynamic provers, but could management please wake up and do something, other than doze and wait for something, maybe, possibly, we expect, to happen?"
No such thing as a fraudulent, frivolous or absurd announcement of an offer of cooperation with CDC by BIEL. It could be a real PR, about a real offer, by a real company, with a real product. Best information we now have, from a scientist who lives PEMF, is that it is "unlikely" that PEMF and ActiPatch would have an efficaious effect on COVID-19. Science is an exacting game, I would want to know definitively that ActiPatch does not work. Nothing more or less. I would hope a call has already been made to the CDC, this is not time for guesswork or "unlikely", no stone left unturned time, it's not complicated.
The cardiologist with the patient, who told him that the heart medication stimulated him sexually, thought the first patient who said it was just an old guy, who was a little nuts, with a cute story. Then, a few weeks later, he told the Pfizer Sales Rep that it had happened to a few patients. The Sales Rep had heard it from a few Docs and the light bulb went on, big time. . . . . Viagra is the result. What I don't know, with absolute certainty, is that PEMF has no effect on COVID-19. And a confirmation from anyone trying to be right or wrong is of no interest to me. It's science and it must be without bias and exacting!
Does anyone recall my suggestion about the CDC, a petrie dish of COVID-19 and an ActiPatch?
Is it time now to announce an offer by BIEL to cooperate on testing ActiPatch and COVID-19 to determine if PEMF is efficacious in fighting a pandemic????
Sort of like getting on the mark and fixing the absurd share structure, as suggested, the Whelans 'disappearing' billions of shares to enable the stock to really take off and 'fly' when any major deal is announced.
Just once, in more than 12 years, I'd like BIEL to just be first, instead of 3/4 sleepy, in the toilet, just once! Keith Nalepka and his sales team are dynamic provers, but could management please wake up and do something, other than doze and wait for something, maybe, possibly, we expect, to happen?
"Biel products have become a lot more marketable now that FDA Full Body Clearance has been attained...so much so that the products might command the margins AW was so insistent on getting."
I know the margins BIEL and the former CEO would have enjoyed with Dr. Scholl's, CVS and KT Tape and, believe me, the "No" dictates to those deals should never have happened, not in a million years. The most colossal mismanagement cluster moves, ever! Enough said.
Question now is will the current CEO clean up the outrageous share structure and become the heroic darling of the corporate pharma/pain space before deals are announced, so the stock can fly to the sustainable levels it deserves? The sustained success of BIEL for all shareholders will best be achieved by getting all the ducks in a row at the right time and share structure is the key one.
The Whelans need to 'disappear' 28 billion of their 35 billion shares or so, reduce their holdings to 7 billion, protect the Corp from hostility by aligning with 'friends' and make a ton of money when deals are announced. 35 billion shares at $.0009 is the same as 7 billion at $.0045, so, if 'disappearing' a lot of the stock IBEX received as a result of churning the revolver financing model allows the stock to climb to a sustainable spot in pennyland, versus not, then just get it done! Remaining in the toilet bowl versus sustainable pennyland!
I have not seen any constant bashing of the ActiPatch miracle product and doubt that I will, because that would be the epitome of ignorance.
ActiPatch has been proven, irrefutably, to have a positive efficacy factor of >71%, a huge number in the pharma/pain space and rare in the FDA history. If 29% of actual users wish to say it doesn't work, for them, that would be accurate and not bashing.
For anyone, not an unsuccessful actual user, to just throw out that it doesn't work would be lying, and, as I say, I've seen none of those. ActiPatch works in >71% of actual users, as determined by studies in the UK involving NHS, doesn't get better than that! Truth matters!
I wondered if part of the reason for the 180 day self-designed success window was out of a personal need for time, space and relief from the stressors of what happened.
Former CEO shock/events, without notice; transition; natural emotions; name toxicity on Corp.; employees; family; and new to the game of what to do to turn around a company that has been in a toilet and disarray for years!
It's all been said, as to what to do, that is well accepted and proven to work for the benefit of stockholders. If any steps are ignored and great success of a miracle device does not evolve quickly, then some predictions will have been correct. It certainly is not a time to do nothing with a mess or lack of decisiveness/fear of screwing up. Time for courage, tactical prowess and the will to do the right things to clean it up.
I wondered if part of the reason for the 180 day self-designed success window was out of a personal need for time, space and relief from the stressors of what happened.
Former CEO shock/events, without notice; transition; natural emotions; name toxicity on Corp.; employees; family; and new to the game of what to do to turn around a company that has been in a toilet and disarray for years!
It's all been said, as to what to do, that is well accepted and proven to work for the benefit of stockholders. If any steps are ignored and great success of a miracle device does not evolve quickly, then some predictions will have been correct. It certainly is not a time to do nothing with a mess. Time to clean it up.
April 4th is day 180, the self-designed, self-imposed date of success delivery by the current CEO. I was of two minds - experienced and successful CEOs never speculate definitively, and it represented a strong desire to rise up and succeed the controlling elements and dismal results of the former CEO. Nuff said.
My nose is still twitching concerning the current climate and sensing perhaps there is something huge about to happen.
I've said for almost a year, fix the toxic name from the former CEO, long before the October surprise transition and the outrageous share structure. First 1, then 2. Didn't envisage the option that by fixing the 2nd issue first goes a long way in fixing the first, the toxic name issue.
Seems so simple, looking at it now in reverse order and how quickly doing so would make the current CEO a hero in the market's and in shareholders eyes, no? Get on it Madam CEO, don't just achieve the goals of the former CEO, blow them out of the water, in your own name!!!!
My question on the 180 success deadline, April 4th. Why wouldn't a strategically dynamic new CEO bring the deal or deals in early? Ahead of schedule and under budget are the tag lines of some of the best ever!
All, look only in the rear view mirror, glass half-empty, nonsense!
It's not a tie....not even remotely close!
ActiPatch is incredible with a positive efficacy factor of >71%!
No one could ever be that stupid. Too easy to call BS on that one. My sense is it may come in earlier than 180, as long as the current CEO is fixing the share structure issue, while we wait. BIEL could be the positive darling of an otherwise bleak world. BIEL rises out of the basement toilet on the way up to a robust, sustainable and enviable pennyland position, as the rest of the world passes by heading down. American ingenuity at its finest moment, a drug-free, side-effect free simple solution for acute and chronic pain, cleared by the FDA!!!
And, just imagine how many investors and brokers will be looking for investment opportunities. Present an intelligent share structure and a great deal with a great company and they will come like a runaway freight train.
I've said for almost a year, fix the toxic name and share issues, first 1, then 2. Didn't see the possibility that fixing the 2nd issue first goes a long way in fixing the first, the toxic name issue. Seems so simple, looking at it now in reverse order and would make the current CEO a hero in the market's and shareholder's eyes, no?
Geeeez Mr. President, all I meant to do with my stupid idea was for Drs. Koneru and Staelin to get in a car and shoot down to the CDC in Atlanta and test out the ActiPatch in a fume hood to see if it does anything nasty to the virus. Didn't mean to bother you Sir!
Whatssat? It works? Who is this? Whaddya mean it's DJT, kiss off!
brinng, brinng,
You want me to what? Why don't you come here. What? Your name is Melania? I'm on my way! Please tell the big man he doesn't even have to be there . . .
Of course I'll bring an ActiPatch.
Can I bring Kelly Whelan and Keith Nalepka? Ya? Okay, but I'm not sure about Kelly, she's kinda busy fixing up the mess in the share structure but I'll ask. Okay, goodbye Mrs. Trump. Whassat? Okay, bye Melania.
Another day at the office. . . .