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@sab... I am starting to see the
22.00 zone developing as a support area
(22.25-22.00-21.75)
upward targets 23 and 24,I agree. but need to see 22 area holding now
yes, decent bounce today
and looks a bit like a small breakout. I think it changed the momentum from down to upward, but careful to keep watching tomorrow. Its moving towards key resistance area now (22.60-22.90) if it climbs thru that to target 23.00 thats a bit more bullish. I'm looking at a finish target zone around 24 for this pattern, so at least a good rally reaches the previous top zone 23.50-23.75 area with a hope for technical 24 target.
Looking for support to start holding around 22.25-22.00-21.80 area now.
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Looking to target 23 area and hold 22
AVXL chart
AVXL daily
My 50% Fib retrace target is around 20 dollar area.
measured from the 16.60 area to the wave peak at 23.60 area. a 7 dollar move.
Fib retrace target zone
There is another Fib target zone to plot, from a previous rally, that has the finish target around 25. I'm debating whether the wave pattern has changed today with the lower downwave. Failure to hold the 21.75-22.00 area was a tell for me. and now after hitting the 21.00, we'll see what kind of bounce into resistance might come. but I think there may be more downwave to this track in the next day or two.
A 7 dollar rally has turned down and fallen 2.70 already. watch out for the resistance shoulder zone overhead. to generate another 2 dollar downwave.
AVXL grid
My last post was sensing 2 dollar moves down, 1 dollar up, 2 down pattern. I think we see the 2 dollar moves so far. maybe a 1 dollar bounce into resistance and then more down. This second day of downwave seems to me a drop too far to call a wave 4 slide, that would turn upward into the finishing wave 5 to target 25 area. I wanted to see that wave 4 holding around 22 area(21.75-22) but it failed today and hits 21. Now, the bounce from here (20.75-21.00 area) has a resistance target around 21.70-22.20-22.50 area and the resistance zone there could turn down again. IF the rally finish was the 23.70 peak, then we have a 50% fib around 20 dollars.
and the Fib target zone would be (20.85/20.10/19.25) These are the next targets I'm watching to complete the pullback.
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While thats my basic Elliott wave pattern I'm watching... it is possible that this pullback to the 21-20.75 area could make a big bounce back up strong and manage to retest that Wave 5 target at 25 area. but my bias now is leaning toward the ongoing downwave to finish falling to the lower targets closer to 19.35/19.70/20.00
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AVXL making the pullback
In my view the peak at the 23.50 area is the finish of a Wave 3, with wave 5 to target the 25-27 area. This wave 3 "should have" held more shallow wave 4 slide, maybe to hang closer to 22 area. This difference between a shallow slide holding at 22, versus todays deeper downwave to 21 might be enough to change the wave pattern, to change the count, from a wave 4 slide, to redefining the pattern as a shorter Wave 5 completed at 23.70 // Or , as an ABC correction wave that finished at 23.50 area. It was a good rally of 7 dollars , from 16.60 to 23.60 area. The 50% retrace would be the 20 dollar target area.
IF I am wrong in my counting of the EWave pattern here, it would be that the wave 4 is still ongoing and the next rally can surge and climb from here to achieve that 25-27 target zone.
IF I am correct in thinking the EWave pattern has now changed, then the finish at 23.70 , "should be" looking to continue down another leg, to get into that Fib retrace zone (20.75-20.00-19.25 area)
and we can see what to think in the coming days if that happens. I'm looking at the extreme downwave target for the moment if selling momentum takes over, watching for the 18.70-18.50 area to hold the line. for the current picture.
But thats looking too far ahead at the moment. Lets watch it step by step and see what the next 2 days does to finish the week. Big disappointment today to see the selling take over. I was looking for a jump at the open to try and reach 24. as a selling target. but no. they took it down from 23.50 and 23 dollars. It feels to me like looking more downward now.
nice charts
russell looks more volatile in that plunge down.
another look AVXL
AVXL / will 22 hold
I think 22 area is critical to hold in this pattern. a wave 4 looking to rally to target around 25-27
IF AVXL has begun a major pullback
Many targets wait below
and I'm seeing 2 dollar waves at a time
down 2 up 1 down 2 up 1 down 2.
we're seeing the same support steps now
at the 4660-4650 area.
If it drops to that target, the next bounce after that will be important to watch.
I like the look of those cup and handles.
I think we both want
to be looking in the upward direction for the S+P... but I just did a chart thats looking downward,just to see if it has any architecture from the 4700 as a finished Top.
A collapse from 4700 has all the key math construction points along the way down and I would envision the first major target would be a wave down to the 4300 target area.
Lets see what happens in the next week or two. If it falls now into this kind of major downwave, I might get nervous for the crash happening.
If it is triggered by China's market collapsing, Evergrande collapse, and followed by the 3 Gorges dam collapse and then bitcoin collapse, then I think the crash is happening. The critical line in the sand is support around 3500-3600-3700 area. but the crash target bottom zone with this first look is back down to the 2600-2400-2200-2000 area. Its all too soon to guess at but the collapse could also happen ... soon.
Starting to examine what a
S+P crash might look like.
Just a first look
S+P
looks like its still finishing the wave 4 down. I think it will hold around 4670-4660 area and then begin the Wave 5 rally.
S+P 500/5 minute candles
My Fib AVXL chart
Dont strain your eyes and brain over this. I just put this one here for reference.
Its a lot of Fib arcs and channel lines... but all the points are connected.
Did my eyes see AVXL ride up outside the top bollinger band for the last 6 days? Thats pretty rare. It has to hit a wall at some point and sell down .
IF it opens with a decent pop to hit 24.00-24.25 I think I might trim a little there. But I'd like to see it climb to targets 25,maybe 26,27,28
I come from a family of artists
good charts.
helpful to see. thanks all
Thanks for that link.
trade trekker
Interesting that some folks
think the CEO is a problem... just like Missling with AVXL. I am not any expert on anything about either company or the CEOs, ... but I read that statement by Geert he made in July, and his explanation seemed very sensible to me. I dont really have the will or energy to dedicate to become an expert on the science or to understand the complexity of financial profiles of a company. I try to get a feel for the basic things like expectations ,earnings reports, experts analysis and smart people like you, Citrati,Falconer. etc... I do feel confident about my understanding of what charts look like. I like CVM's chart. I like the drug they have . I like that it wants to work in support of surgery and radiation... so that its not looking to completely disrupt the big Pharma money system.
Other than that I'm just gambling on a horse. with a small wager.
If I get a chance to buy a big dip back to the 200ma around 9 or 10, I will watch it and look to sell around 25 and be happy. It looks like it could be a nice trader stock.
A look at the CVM chart
Climbing into resistance
Watching the resistance at the 50 MA, or even now at 13 area. looking at a retest to the 200ma 9/10/11 area.
The cycle top looks to me like the 25-27 area, not 40.
A great rally from the 2.40 Bottom. and hits all the Fib math targets in the pattern.
I like the CVM chart, I like the explanation from the CEO, and maybe the latest plunge to 7.40 from the 25 area could be a gift for investors who like the science results.
When a revolutionary disruptive science comes along, and threatens Big Pharma's money system, the wall street and FDA team knows how to suppress and manipulate the game.
I would bet thats what theyre doing to CVM ,like they do to AVXL.
https://cel-sci.com/
AVXL Fibonacci picture with a twist
The twist is ...what happens IF we get a major market crash. which is being forecasted by many to happen any time now, and the trigger clues have been given to us.
AVXL market crash targets?
Fully confident about AVXL success, I dont want to sell any shares at this point. But given the unstable global conditions and great reset happening now, can I force myself to take some profit here at the next peak? Were playing russian roulette with the time clock. If I guess wrong I will lose out on several thousand in extra profits. If I guess right I can save several thousand in cash to buy the crash bottoms.
Do you have a sense or picture of where you think the IPIX pullback will find support ?
I see those key MA's still down around .25/.26 area on the weekly chart
Learning about CVM
Its a chore to play catch up, but I'm starting
The July letter from the CEO... sounds very plausible and sensible to me.
The share price took a nose dive to its bottom back then.slowly climbing up from there
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=164775588
and from Redditt forum...
https://www.reddit.com/r/cvm/
@ Sab...Cel-Sci ??
Thanks to you,I'm starting to explore more things. Following GD's comments. and he's interested in Cel-sci. are you ? I found this. trying to catch up if its worth looking at . Havent seen the chart yet.
https://www.reddit.com/r/cvm/comments/o771xv/potential_leak_that_mk_showing_good_results_added/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Thanks for all your good input.
tom
https://cel-sci.com/
its getting spidey sense time
I had been thinking more cautious
in my target and resistance areas ,but they are here at 22/23...and watching the rally ,I'm leaning more to your bullish sense of it. I pulled off my sell triggers from 22/23 and lifted them to the 27 area. for the moment. But I still want to be very observant next week, not just about AVXL price action , but the Global events watch.
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AVXL climbed steady up from 17.25 to 23.25 in the last 6 days. I'm getting that Wiley Coyote spidey sense for caution ...
Unusual climb?? for AVXL
There hasnt been too much resistance
in this big rally. 17.25 to 23.25
6 dollars steady . I was watching for more resistance at the key points, but each day it climbed another dollar basically.
If there was nothing to worry about ,I'd say we ought to see it maybe retrace a dollar or two and then climb again to the 25-28 area and maybe up to test 30 again, but , why arent the sellers taking it down now. Lets see what next week does. But when I say nothing to worry about,
I do think there is plenty to watch out for now. Not so much about AVXL,but about the Global pressures and calamity. war,fears and threats of war, floods, and disasters, the death of the Queen announcement can be a trigger, the China stock market and Real estate giant Evergrande waiting to bust, the 3 Gorges dam waiting to collapse. Underneath that dam is the Bitcoin .All this could trigger a stock market collapse. and here sits the S+P and the others at the top of their mountain ,.Are we looking at the wiley coyote cliff edge now?
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The S+P had been climbing to recovery since weeks ago, while AVXL was lagging. Finally AVXL makes a fair rally in the last 6 days,in a row.
Since when does AVXL rally 6 or even 4 days in a row?
What will AVXL do IF the stock market collapses ???
Yes, thanks ,I found the blogArchives.
scrolling down ,it looks like its archived going back years.
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/
@ K123 Thanks for the link to Tony,
I'm getting a little more nervous
with every up day
Tony Caldaro, I'll have to look him up.
Is his work still online to find?
especially TA people
at the AVXL forum, get disrespected way too much. Citrati stopped posting his work there for the same reason. But the good science people there, like Falconer and Biostockclub are great .
IPIX did well this week
a big rally. I sold it too soon. I'll buy back in at 9 cents if/when the market crashes.
What do you fellows think of SAVA. are there still a lot of strong believers who will hold on? or will there be many who will bail at this big bounce. My forecast from several weeks ago, when SAVA failed, was for a bounce from the bottom zone to retest this 75-95 area and that would be the place to get out. Today was a good day to do it.
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https://www.screencast.com/t/FEIgkoDhvS
I started looking at SAVA chart after the big collapse.
That Fib retrace zone from 75 to 100 and centered around 80-85 looked like the place to bail.
My bet would be that SAVA will not sustain this 90-100 area and will fall down again to retest 60's and then fall again at 80-90 area and wallow around 50-40 for some time. Its just my sense of it. but maybe the big money will keep it propped up better ,I dunno.
I think I remember reviewing those deleted posts and I agree ,they didnt need to be deleted, but sometimes the best way to move on is to just move on and the forum settles down into the next days. I have had several disgruntlements at that forum. Its not always fair minded in which posts get deleted off topic and other posts are also off topic but get to stay up... I try not to delete too many except the blatant ones that attack people.
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I think you're certainly welcome to keep posting there, but I'm happy to read your thoughts here. All sincere people are welcome here. Your experience with trading/investing is very high quality. I imagine much of your input would go unrecognized at the AVXL forum. Better appreciated right here.
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You see how my chart analysis gets trashed by the idiots there. But I still try to post some in case it helps some of 'my followers'.
I started investing and learning about 15 years ago. Prechter was the first EW lessons I discovered. I was keenly focused ,as a beginner, on his forecasts and he got it way wrong after the 2007/2008 crash.... He was predicting another major drop ,I remember the date,August 3rd 2008, dire warnings that scared me into making alot of defensive sells of the entire portfolio, to readjust everything. ..... and then the market, as we saw, went steadily up and up , like it always does. , just like its doing now.
But theres so much to learn, I studied a little about Gann, wish I had time to learn that better, I think I studied some wykoff as well. Mostly,I learned to develop my own vision and my charting methods evolved uniquely. Ive learned much from Citrati here. He knows way more than me about Due diligence.
I'm mostly just a chart analyst. my one trick pony.
No, maybe I have 2 tricks in my bag, I also pay close attention to political and world events and the signs and clues that are critical to markets. and I'm reading how the insider intel people are expecting a market crash upon the war events soon to happen, disasters like the 3 Gorges dam breaking, Bitcoin collapsing, and the Chinese realty market crashing with Evergrande. I believe in the success of Anavex to move higher ,but at the same time,I do think we will see a black swan crashing the market, I want to trade defensively and prepare for that .
A colorful mess S+P 500
but when I draw with the Fib tools just to see what it looks like, I get this kind of picture ,where all the key points connect with some precision. I will watch the price action to see if this chart becomes a road map to the targets. It might not, but very often These Fib targets get hit.
This chart is based on the current peak at 4663 and IF it caps here and begins the major downwave.
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IF the rally stops at this peak
Good stuff,Sab.
Thanks for posting your analysis.
I think I could learn some things from you. Yes, hand drawn,all those years ago.
Over the years,have you refined your system to the tools and combination you like best? and is there any particular combination that really shines? I have developed the combination of Elliott wave/Fibonacci tools/Bollinger Band/ and the Ichimoku cloud (full) are my standard plot. along with the basic moving averages. These tools are enough for me to make the chart look like a Jackson Pollack painting.lol. We have a few good TA chartists here. Citrati uses some EMA's. to suit his short time frame day trading. My trading is mostly swing patterns.I try to find tops and bottoms.
S+P 500 hits 4663 today.Is it running along your road map ?
S+P 500
Heres one fom GD
Maybe I should expand my target hopes higher for this week. but watch out for the market black swan jitters. theres alot of calamity in the world now.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=166607827
I trimmed a little at 21. I'm looking at the target area 23/24. 25 to 27 would be high hopes in my view. AVXL rarely goes straight up for 5 or 6 consecutive days.
But I tend to be cautious about AVXL.
I sold out of my IPIX position. sold the rally to .33 yesterday and will sit it out for a while. I trimmed a few hundred shares AVXL at 21. maybe a few more later at 23, 24 area.
Hope youve been doing well . It is nice to see AVXL come thru with a timely rally.
oil sands technology penny stock
PQEFF
Canadian company, with oil fields in Utah. attractive technology. may be a buyout play.
I dont care for the other picks, but this one looks interesting . I like the way the chart is shaped
https://insiderfinancial.com/4-penny-stocks-to-grow-your-portfolio-bimi-liga-metx-pqeff/182621/