123Tom's TA study group

[123tom]

AVXL grid

My last post was sensing 2 dollar moves down, 1 dollar up, 2 down pattern. I think we see the 2 dollar moves so far. maybe a 1 dollar bounce into resistance and then more down. This second day of downwave seems to me a drop too far to call a wave 4 slide, that would turn upward into the finishing wave 5 to target 25 area. I wanted to see that wave 4 holding around 22 area(21.75-22) but it failed today and hits 21. Now, the bounce from here (20.75-21.00 area) has a resistance target around 21.70-22.20-22.50 area and the resistance zone there could turn down again. IF the rally finish was the 23.70 peak, then we have a 50% fib around 20 dollars.
and the Fib target zone would be (20.85/20.10/19.25) These are the next targets I'm watching to complete the pullback.
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While thats my basic Elliott wave pattern I'm watching... it is possible that this pullback to the 21-20.75 area could make a big bounce back up strong and manage to retest that Wave 5 target at 25 area. but my bias now is leaning toward the ongoing downwave to finish falling to the lower targets closer to 19.35/19.70/20.00
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AVXL making the pullback
In my view the peak at the 23.50 area is the finish of a Wave 3, with wave 5 to target the 25-27 area. This wave 3 "should have" held more shallow wave 4 slide, maybe to hang closer to 22 area. This difference between a shallow slide holding at 22, versus todays deeper downwave to 21 might be enough to change the wave pattern, to change the count, from a wave 4 slide, to redefining the pattern as a shorter Wave 5 completed at 23.70 // Or , as an ABC correction wave that finished at 23.50 area. It was a good rally of 7 dollars , from 16.60 to 23.60 area. The 50% retrace would be the 20 dollar target area.
IF I am wrong in my counting of the EWave pattern here, it would be that the wave 4 is still ongoing and the next rally can surge and climb from here to achieve that 25-27 target zone.
IF I am correct in thinking the EWave pattern has now changed, then the finish at 23.70 , "should be" looking to continue down another leg, to get into that Fib retrace zone (20.75-20.00-19.25 area)
and we can see what to think in the coming days if that happens. I'm looking at the extreme downwave target for the moment if selling momentum takes over, watching for the 18.70-18.50 area to hold the line. for the current picture.
But thats looking too far ahead at the moment. Lets watch it step by step and see what the next 2 days does to finish the week. Big disappointment today to see the selling take over. I was looking for a jump at the open to try and reach 24. as a selling target. but no. they took it down from 23.50 and 23 dollars. It feels to me like looking more downward now.