is working (too hard) for a living
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Please list 1/1/2012 stores, and 1/1/2013 stores:
double the stores and more coming!!!
Why 13 month old link, unachieved 2012 projections?
Rated at .20 when company planned 100 new stores in 2012.
Net of closings, my count is about 5 actual.
On 'increasing earnings,' hopefully the team pushing 'senior exchange' listing will require audited numbers. Certainly there will be fourth quarter expenses (or stock dilution) related to ice cream and the failed Tully's effort.
Recall last year there was a surprise $1M prior period adjustment, hopefully not again this year.
And, fyi -- Prime Equity Research is not 'independent,' it is paid research. Note the disclaimer on page 6 of the report.
BCCI is undervalued, based on what criteria??
Stores closing rather than opening, promised ice cream not in stores, promised reality shows not on TV.
For me, this is a pattern of over promise, under deliver -- not often a fact pattern delivering a higher stock price.
So -- is the newly announced Tempe store one of the five PHX stores which were to be opened by 3/31/2012, per the PR of over a year ago?
Or, do we have a new PHX interest, actually hope so, since the last project didn't go well.
Wonder if this is an owned or franchised store?
As we all know, what previously happenec was that only one was opened in 2012, in Fountain Hills in June, and it was closed within three months (no surprise, a low traffic location and temperatures close to or over 100 degrees every day).
Depends on your definition of growing.
Barista store count is down 2 over the last six months, and no new ones opened.
Compare this to the plan announced a year ago to open 100 stores in 2012, half owned and half franchised.
Funds have instead been expended to put ice cream on shelves apparently without a distribution commitment (wonder what happened to Caliph Dairies?) -- what other explanation is there for the current situation?
BCCI seems long on creating expectations (stores, ice cream, reality show) and short on execution. That could explain the 80% decline in pps over the last year as the overall market has gone up by double digits.
Perhaps those who were willing to invest with BCCI in acquiring Tully's, will instead invest in opening Baristas stores.
It would be fun to be opening stores again, instead of closing them as has been the case over the last six months (Phoenix, San Antonio #1).
With no stores opened in the last six months and two apparently closed in that same time frame, per YELP (Phoenix and the initial San Antonio store, latter very concerning since this was the first multi-store city outside of Washington), not sure how much longer the 'growth' story can stay intact.
With the funds expended on ice cream (with no offsetting revenue), and the Tully's bid, and absorbing lease and potential equipment write-offs at closed stores with no revenue, will be interesting to see the next set of financials -- will be even nicer if they are audited. I am guessing the committee driving 'senior exchange' listing will insist on that, which may delay issuance past the usual publication date.
Agree, baristas' pictures are beautiful.
But this is not evidence that the Baristas Fountain Hills AZ store is still open -- particularly in the face of contrary evidence:
- Four yelp posts that it is closed.
- Yellow/white pages inquiry shows Baristas, says CLOSED.
- Fountain Hills business listing does not include Baristas.
In Dec 2011, AZ openings were trumpeted. 5 by the end of Q1 2012. What happened was one in June in the middle of nowhere.
Any stores opened anywhere in the USA in the second half of 2012? If the story is growth, need to open stores.
If the story is ice cream, need to get on shelves.
If the story is TV, need to get on cable.
Not sure what story is currently playing.
Advise name of BCCI's sponsored Tully offer entity
BCCI's published Tully's offering is sketchy -- stated dollars, with a huge component in (unstated) paper not cash.
I have seen postings that the intially offered paper (bcci stock?) was rejected.
We would all appreciate it if you would post the specifics of the accepted (but not necessarily winning) offer. Would help us understand the benefit for BCCI shareholders if accepted.
What is the bidding entity -- provide link to show that BCCI is associated with that entity, and that it has been accepted into the auction.
We are all hoping this is a low hurdle to surmount, I just haven't seen anyone do it yet.
Of course, still have to win. Starbucks is non-trivial competition; any evaluation of BCCI bid vs theirs?
Fountain Hills Store closed per 4 Yelp reviews since August.
The most recent review, December 7, from a person with 100+ Yelp reviews, says the following:
This is an update....I really loved this place when it first opened but they haven't been open for a couple months now! I emailed them and at the end of October the president of Baristas got back to me saying they've had a problem with managers at this location and it will be "addressed immediately". Well..the place is still closed and they still have a sign up saying "now open!"
I do not think the proposed bid structure has been publicized -- but since BCCI has no cash, it will cost dilution to obtain the cash.
If all of the cash is being put up by someone else, and BCCI was going to put up its (wall)paper which has apparently been rejected, then BCCI's value to the bidding process is not clear.
So, advise the name of BCCI's bidding entity, and document that said name is in the list of accepted bids.
If you can do that, then you will be rid of the naysayers.
Meanwhile, based on today's pps activity, it would appear that the market is not enthusiastic about the likelihood of success of any BCCI-backed bid.
Regarding BCCI ice cream business model being screwed up.
It is certainly 'creative' to launch a predominantly female purchased product (ice cream) with a male oriented brand (baristas) with a summer-oriented offering (ice cream on a stick) in the off season (winter) in a market (New York) where the brand (baristas) has no identity.
Perhaps this explains why the product is still on the warehouse shelves after three weeks, with nothing said by the previously (October) announced distributor (Caliph). Wonder how this will look in the current quarter (unaudited) P&L??
BCCI continues very strong with (all bunched together) press releases of uncertain content.
Perhaps there will be better fortune in 2013. The company has announced no new openings in six months, after projecting 100 for 2012; vision of 15 between now and end of March can only be viewed as hopeful, not committed. In Dec 2011 BCCI announced five Phoenix stores by end of March; the first opened in the Phoenix boondocks (Fountain Hills) in the second quarter, nothing has been heard from Phoenix since.
BCCI's 14 December PR said ice cream in the warehouse, distribution plans being 'finalized' with store locations to be announced 'soon.'
Not sure what 'soon' means in BCCI-land, but nothing announced so far.
What is your point?
And Green Mountain trades at 40 bucks.
Why wasn't Calip Dairies part of today's PR? Would have expected to have a quote about how excited they would be to launch this exciting new ice cream.
But, I still don't get the timing. In early October the ice cream was o be in stores by the end of October so it could be part of pumpkin pie a la mode, etc, over the holidays; now we see distribution is being 'finalized.'
Net: from three weeks out, they missed the 'in store date' by six weeks -- and counting, not very good execution IMO. I have some sympathy for the NY situation due to Sandy, but that says nothing for Phoenix, etc.
Speaking of Phoenix -- anyone heard anything more about the other four stores that a year ago were announced to be open by 3/31/2012??
On the Tully acquisition -- anyone have any idea of BCCI form/level of participation in BAPI? Certainly very heavy dilution if 'negotiable securities' are BCCI common, hopefully some sort of 'junk bond.'
bcci -- what is your definition of a 'support level'?
To me, seemed like we were at a support level of about .015 until the stock crashed through to apparently close at .012.
Given the 90% decline over the last 12 months, perhaps the support level is .000?
You are right -- need solid news, then things will go.
My thoughts about solid news which would help:
- Ice cream in stores (which ones?)
- Multiple new store openings (would love to hear about new ones, but committed dates on previously announced ones (Phoenix, San Antonio, New Jersey)) would be a good start.
- Reality show cable network sign up, start date (but, might have to redo the 'casting calls' of last winter, this is a high turnover situation and it isn't clear all of those baristas are still with the program -- although we know mgt (BH) still is, maybe that is all that is important).
- Senior exchange listing, promised for this year (would be a great Christmas present!!).
- Audited financials (need for the last item, but would be helpful in their own right by reducing the uncertainty which naturally accrues to unaudited financials, particularly given the history of current management and last year's 'year end' surpise; for example, where is the back pay resolution in the current year published financials??)
Does anyone project any of these to happen by the end of this year, or are there alternatives for consideration?
What is your definition of 'tiny float'?
According to the recently published financials, the float has increased from 17M shares to 30M this calendar year.
Volume has averaged about 300K shares for the last two months (since the barrage of PRs, which followed -- how coincidental -- a much heavier trading period).
This would say that float is 100 days of trading, doesn't feel 'tiny' to me; and the fact float has increased so dramatically doesn't feel good either.
One could hypothesize that the stock's dismal performance this year is the result of selling from those who received the increased float -- and those buyers could well be expected to sell out on any 'bounce.'
But, perhaps after tax loss selling, an opportunity in the New Year.
OK, I'll bite; why not on BCCI website? And are you aware of why it wasn't on the website, or are you disputing it as a BCCI PR???
Certainly, the company has kept other PRs on its website even though their 'forward looking' statements haven't proven out:
- December 13, 2011. Announcement of 5 Phoenix area stores to be opened by March 31,2012,including the first by the end of February. The first actually opened in June, and the other four have not been heard from.
- April 5, 2012. Projection that BCCI will be listed on a 'senior exchange' by the end of the year.
Perhaps you are thinking the latter could still happen? Me, I'll take the 'under' on performance against that PR, given performance versus other 2012 PRs.
But in fairness, some PRs do come off the website; for example, I can't find the one from 2011 announcing a New Jersey store.
I also can't find the raft of early October PRs concerning ice cream, new San Antonio stores (which I commented upon at the time as a positive sign, existing market expansion), CEO update, filming of commercials, calendar sales, and trademark registration. 6 in one week!!
But, I attributed lack of this group of PRs on the website to a lack of funds to pay the website management company as funds were likely instead going to pay fines and legal bills -- or more positively ice cream and commercials. Certainly, the market wasn't impressed by the PR barrage, the stock is down 60% in the two months since those PRs.
But hopefully, cash flow will improve in December; about a year ago, there was a positive PR about the strength of holiday coffee sales (albeit without specific year over year or season over season comparisons). Maybe this year, a PR on sales strength for coffee and ice-cream (including where the NY ice cream is being sold so we can go buy some for our blizzard celebrations).
Your quote:
and remember BCCI never sad (sic) that it would open 100 stores there is no PR from the company about such a thing
SEATTLE, Jan. 12, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Baristas Coffee Company, Inc. (OTCPK: BCCI) announced today that they have received a 52 week outlook buy rating from biotech focused research firm Prime Equity Research.
Baristas expects to open up to 100 coffee stands (50 company-owned and 50 franchised) by Q4-2012….Baristas plans to follow an aggressive expansion strategy with 100 new stores to be opened by the end of Q4-2012
Fish, surprising to see you post a year old EEGC PR, as normally you are eagerly looking toward future posts rather than using history as a guidepost.
But, let's go with it.
Which of the 'expected' future events in this PR have actually happened?
Dilution 15% this calendar year, 50% since end of 2010.
Float up 70%+ in 2012 -- perhaps that explains pps, as those receiving shares are selling rather than holding. Is there a message in that??
Unable to see where the $75K owed on the labor issues, is reflected in the financials. Perhaps we will see another 'prior period adjustment' as we did in the 2011 financials.
For those commenting about how the stock was valued at $.20, that was when it had five stores projected to 100 this year, rather than the current eleven without enough cash to simply pay a $75K judgement for improper labor practices.
Speculating for a minute.
We know that the distributor is relatively small but also distributes other ice cream products.
I'm not sure how grocery store distribution works, but wouldn't be surprised if the distributor has some ability to shuffle their already committed shelf space without further store discussions.
Still, I would expect BCCI to want to put out a press release as soon as possible, indicating the stores -- could help drive sales, which is the objective. Press release could also expand upon the advertising plans discussed in last month's PR.
Fair comment about sensitivity to Sandy.
Having said that, Sandy hit on the 29th so I assume the ice cream locations had already been determined, even if the trucks couldn't roll on the 29th. So, should know the stores.
Regarding business model -- I am sure there is no need to email the CEO about it. The fact that there have been no store openings for four months, and that opening a company-owned store would result in dilution of more than 10% of company stock (if shares would have to be sold at current pricing, based on float per ihub and costs per the Prime Equity Research report) would not be 'new news' to him.
If it would -- BCCI has bigger problems.
The fact that there have been no store openings suggests that the CEO understands the business model problem.
Objective was to remind 'positive' Board posters of the issue, hoping they would have ideas to overcome this problem.
Month over, anyone know ice cream locations, so our NY area board members can check it out?
scheduled to be on the shelves of retail locations throughout New York and Connecticut before the end of this month.
If rummers (sic) were so huge, pps would be going up, not down (30% over the last three months).
And volume would be more than $44K worth for an entire week - a significant decrease over the last month.
Shareholders should be HOPING for rumors...since there don't seem to be real things happening (no new stores for four months, near as I can tell, happy to be corrected; there are PRs about Barista ice cream in stores, but can't give that credibility until the stores are named).
Note the Prime Equity Research report a year ago said dilution would be required to raise equity to open company-owned stores -- and pps then was .12 or so, but the company did not obtain new equity.
How much dilution would be needed now, to open company-owned stores (or, pay baristas the monies owed??).
- For those interested in such calculations, it would take 2.3M shares to pay the $80K owed the baristas, or more than 10% of the outstanding float per the numbers in the company profile on this site (no idea if that is an accurate number).
- The Prime Equity Research report suggested $180K to open a store ($100K equipment plus working capital at 30% of the projected $20K/month/store revenue). At today's prices, that works out to 5M shares, or 30% of the total float, FORA SINGLE STORE (happy to be corrected as appropriate).
Again -- love the Hooters meets Starbucks (or visa-versa) concept -- but the business model is not working.
So -- need some Huge Rummers to move up the pps!
National commercial advertising is a bad idea IMO, even assuming BCCI has the cash to fund it which I doubt (look forward to hearing from board IH members observing the advertising,to prove it did get funded).
BCCI has stores in only five states, and other than Washington stores are very local within the population centers of those five states. And the highly awaited ice cream has (per BCCI) committed distribution in only a single state -- where there are no stores (who figured this one out??).
Better to spend the money trolling for franchise investors -- but wait, that is why BCCI hired the high-powered management team with significant food industry franchising experience.
Again, I like the concept of Starbucks meets Hooters, but I don't see the business plan to pull it off (see my prior posts following BCCI's publication of the December paid research report for details). BCCI drive thrus hardly match the professionalism of Hooters, even assuming the coffee and associated pastries match up with Starbucks quality and pricing.
At the end of the day, I accept that proof is in the pudding. The pudding I taste is that store openings are less than 10% of the 2012 number forecasted by BCCI, as they have not attracted franchisees or direct BCCI funders.
Stock is down over 70% this year, and NASDAQ is UP....
Against what criteria?
looking good here ..
Any news on who is going to pick up the A. Smith & Co Productions role, now that they have dropped the project?
This puppy has dropped 60% this year, IMO due to abysmal failure to execute the expansion plan (no stores opened this quarter or announced for opening in the near future (unless you count the one in NJ announced over a year ago, and the additional three in PHX which were to open in Q1), less than ten for the year against a plan of 100), and is very near a 12 month low.
Needs a shot in the arm, certainly an on-the-air reality show would help create interest from potential franchisees and 'big money' equity investors (needed for company-owned stores).
As would the proposed ice-cream, although hard to see that happening until next spring (but, surprise me!).
Does Baristas have a semi-finalist store in the competition?
The "America's Best Coffeehouse Competition" is among the most prestigious awards that can be earned. Eight semifinalist coffeehouses within the western region have been selected
If u crunch the numbers and they will present a very compelling economic model.
Not sure about Edgar, but there is quarterly data through June 2012 at otcmarkets.com:
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/BCCI/financials#
Good to see some 2012 financials, thanks to mongo for finding.
With 657K in revenue through June 30, have to expect a shortfall versus the $6M projected for 2012 in the paid-for Prime Equity Research report, obviously due to a shortfall in store opening, none this quarter. With 50% of the company's revenue in G&A -- and key officers not taking salary -- store openings are a key to financial success. As a reference point, G&A is less than 10% for Starbucks.
Actually, there is a June 2012 balance sheet, and cash flow. The interesting thing is that apparently liabilities turned into shareholder equity, perhaps suggesting that the company was able to convince debtors to accept shares.
A good thing, IMO, since at the end of Q2 the company's cash position is less than 10 days of expenditures. I couldn't find the number of shares outstanding -- can you point to it -- will be interesting to understand the conversion price. Worst case, we should be able to impute that when the 2012 financials are published next winter.
And of course, will be interesting to see what happens when we have audited financials as part of the 'senior exchange' listing promised in the April PR.
In April, a BCCI press release spoke to the Company's intent to list on a senior exchange(sic added):
(BCCI) announced today that the Company has taken concrete steps to upgrade the listing of its shares to a senior exchange. The Company is in the process of completing the audit of its financials, has engaged council (sic) specific (sic) for the purpose of handling the filings, and expects to upgrade its listing by the end of the year
Sprudge does not prove the show will happen.
Basically, the report is a rehash of the July announcement of A. Smith & Co's involvement together with a review of the 'pilot.'
The key words in the Sprudge report are in the last paragraph:
...no network or air date has been announced.
Source of the franchise information was BCCI.
From the Prime Equity Research report, page 2:
Baristas expects to open up to 100 coffee stands (50 company-owned and 50 franchised) by Q4-2012.
Offers fee-based equity coverage...
The 9/13 11:53:33 post was recycled news (dreams?) about reality shows and ice cream.
The only posted 'financials' was the assertion that revenue had grown from $503K to 1.0M year on year. But:
- This is from CY 2010 to CY 2011, any news on 2012 results? That's what we need to see, to understand progress.
- Once published, I expect to see a significant deceleration in the growth rate -- not a good thing for a 'growth' story.
The Prime Equity Research report projected $6.0M in 2012 revenue for BCCI -- I will be surprised if it is over $1.3M.
I like the company's concept -- Starbucks meets Hooters. I like the creative thinking about a reality show and ice cream as brand extenders.
What I don't like is the business model -- it is too expensive to open stores versus operating margins. And absent lots of stores, I don't think the ice cream will sell a lot. Why will someone in New York, who has neither seen nor heard of Baristas, buy its ice cream?
Key for brand visibility could be the reality TV show -- but it is now getting close to a year for this concept with no visible traction at the network level.