Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Good point LadyX5903...
It's hard to see us stuck much below the offering price...it didn't happen last time (with the Series H) and visiblity for the company's prospects going forward was far less certain.
Looks like the last chance for the shorts.
Snackman, you were right on timeline! e/
twinkiedefense re: arbitrage
At 1.90 PP, arbitrage shorting would have to be accomplished at a higher price. So, it's already happened or will continue from higher prices.
Yep, could create/is creating overhead resistance going forward.
As always rooster, nice find! Thanks. e/
go-ks
I like your numbers because IMHO they err on the side of being conservative.
FWIW, I will guess that KTM and ACM will do better.
cmf re: official revs...agreed! e/
cmf
Q4 revs are happening! e/
awk agreed, adding...
That the smaller than expected dilution, positively reflects that revenues are expected.
And, this time, if we do end up needing more, I like the chances for a much higher price.
That it's Class A is very bullish.
I like that it's Class A...that's strong!
Investors must be under NDAs.
Price hurts a little, but on balance this is excellent news...we can build on this.
Thanks SAM...that was quick!
What does this news do to today's price!
awk...the Dell find. Nice! e/
SPIN
SKS: "In some ways, I wish that you guys could participate in many of the aspects of the momentum we’re feeling in the marketplace."
SKS meant marketplace, not the stock market.
wavehello
Margin varies from house to house.
WAVX is marginable @ Interactive Brokers, but not shortable.
Dutch Dummy
What's good IMO about bundling deals is that Wave's ETS gets put in the box with the TPM. Wave has no such deals with HP and IBM (only Intel and NSM)...intead Wave markets ETS to IBM and HP TPM users in something of a joint effort with IBM and HP. HP actually has a link on their website to ETS and I am told the IBM link is coming. It's my impression that Wave also jointly markets ETS with Infineon and Atmel, at least both companies have recognized ETS.
Seems to me the best of both worlds (bundling and direct marketing by Wave to the user) would be if Wave is bundled on every TPM (where currently ETS is bundled with the Intel motherboard that incidentally uses an Infineon TPM and also bundled on the NSM TPM) and at the same time Wave would have direct contact with all major TPM PC-buying customers. That would be close to 100% market penetration!
Jaybeaux
That is good news from wmarini about buying the HP model d350 PC with TPM. Pardon me if I am splitting hairs, but it's erroneous to describe it as Embassy-enabled. HP TPM-equipped machines don't come with Wave's ETS but there is a link from the HP site to ETS. Once wmarini's machine is loaded with the ETS Pro Edition, it will be Embassy Trust Suite (ETS)-enabled.
go-ks
As I read it, SKS believes Finread SCRs are DOA, or at least in any meaningful volume...that is why I now predict that Finread, or an approximation of it, will be implemented on the TPM platform.
It's unclear to me if LaGrande will be programmable or if it will be the TPM that will be programmable. I would like to see Wave Embassy IP enabling the programmability as I think it will further strengthen Wave's leadership role and will also provide some ongoing licensing revenue.
Robert Catrell, Private Investor: Thank you, Steven. Could you give us an update; you said that we wouldn’t see anything like American Express here in this country in the near future. How does FINREAD look in Europe?
SKS: Well, from one end of the spectrum they’ve got a lot of work still to go before they're going to deploy in any volume, because I don’t think there's an economic model for the specific FINREAD reader. On the other side of the spectrum, we have strong expressed customer interest from a couple of the banking groups. So I'm trying to balance that interest to understand are they just seeking more information or do they really have a plan to deploy. You know, I think it's going to be interesting to see. The statement that I've made to that industry a couple of times is that they haven't, they’re deploying a device that does trusted input, trusted display and a secure smartcard reader interface. All of those capabilities are going ultimately to be part of the Windows OS on NGSCB. And so the interesting question is, do they have enough traction to have an installed base of trusted smartcard readers in the market, or is there a really large role for building a trusted application that runs on the Windows operating system that runs in emulation of FINREAD, in a similar manner to how we run FINREAD today as an application on our EMBASSY reader. So time will tell on that. My guess is from having talked to banks in the US and in Europe, that if they have a choice between using technology that the consumer already owns or spending 20 bucks to give you a smartcard reader, they will opt for the technology that the consumer already owns as long as it does 90% of what they need. And so I think that it will be interesting to see. I think it's in their hands to go figure out. We've done everything we can to drive it forward. Hopefully it's clear to everybody with our announcement today that we would like to take the work we were talking about in building with, building a trusted PC in the European market, and certainly our interest is to bring that effort and energy to supporting the new TPM platform, and not a proprietary Wave platform supported in the market. And I think that everybody would agree that that's the thing to do.
Catrell: Any idea of how many of the NEC PCs went ahead with our software?
SKS: So, we shipped a bunch of them. I mean, it was measured in the, as far as I know there're none left in the warehouse. So it was a few thousand units. It gave us an opportunity to test the software stack against the EMBASSY chip that we ultimately supplied to Intel. Right? So, NEC became a test platform for telling us what features and functions were important to them for file and folder encryption, identity management, etc., but it was all built to the EMBASSY chip model not to a TPM model. And so the customer service questions, the models to support in the marketplace, the internationalization of that code, all the things that went around supporting that technology got done. And then what we had to do was make some changes to move it from being supported on an EMBASSY chip to being supported on a TPM chip, which we did last fall and into the springtime of this year. And that's been a great example for us. Right? But would we continue to try to press NEC to deploy an EMBASSY platform in the market? It makes no sense. Then I would be competing against Intel and Microsoft and all these companies. And that's not what we want to do. We want to take the services and software and the economic model we always said, and you can go back to almost every conference call I've ever done, I’ve always said that chips aren't where we expect to make money. Chips are the necessary evil. So now the industry has adopted a new platform model for hardware security, and we have been flexible enough to change our support from our own proprietary hardware to the now industry standard, we fully support. We’re fully behind. We’re driving from a standards perspective. We are trying to be the guy holding the flag in front of the charge with all of the troops behind. And, you know, it's cool job.
trustcousa: ssprague@wavesys.com (eom)
Happy Holidays, mymoneybgone! /e
pulsetaker
Steven says he just doesn't know about some things like adoption and activation
I think Steven knows a lot more about those things than he can and is therefore willing to say.
go-ks
I predict that Finread eventually runs with a smart card keyboard as part of a TCG NGSCB platform. awk, Doma or perhaps yourself would be better qualified than I to run down the technical particulars of how that would work. The problem with Finread is who wants to supply consumers with a smart card reader, and certainly consumers don't want to buy the reader. I predict that a smart card keyboard will be standard equipment in trusted computing, the cost will be invisble, and that will be the Finread implementation.
UncleverName, as always thanks for your hard work in reproducing the CCs. They are so much better to have in this form.
IMO this is a CC to remember.
Wave is in a very interesting period in its history, and we’re really transitioning from a development stage into a production stage company.
I think the disappointment shared by a number of posters was the lack of specific revenue guidance going forward, but it's obvious that Wave is simply not entitled to release deployment numbers and product information relating to Wave's OEM customers until such time as these companies together with the TCG decide to go public. Personally I agree with the stealth mode, the only issue, assuming that Wave becomes profitable and the share price is rewarded, is that near-term lack of visibility tends to perpetuate a gradual sell-off, eroding the share price which lowers the price for the next financing round. Actually a believer in Wave's ultimate success can offset the added dilution from the lower offering price, albeit by assuming the additional rsik of increasing their investment, by adding to their holding at these lower prices. For example, I am planning on increasing my stake substantially at current levels (under 2.50) an opportunity I would not have had Wave been able to bolster the share price. When I calculate the additional return down the road from buying at these levels compared to higher prices it more than offsets the additional dilution we will incur as a result of a depressed offering price (even if it's very low).
There are many companies and customers that we have that can benefit from trusted computing, who understand what Wave can do and what we can provide, and where we already have an existing relationship and can convert them to supporting the trusted computing specification, as well as the existing technologies that we're providing them today.
The Caisse d'Epargne news is more meaningful than certain doubters might think. IMO this more than just another demo of a technology that might get launched. The difference here is that Wave has realized that much of the Embassy technology and projects can be now leveraged into the TPM platform, just as basic client ETS has been. The only thing IMO that will derail this is if TPMs flop, which looks unlikely since deployment is moving forward, driven by the huge TCG players, and user feedback is positive. The cost of TPMs are virtually nonexistent. It will be very interesting to how Finread is ultimately folded into the TCG platform, if I am permitted to make that assumption. It doesn't seem that smart card readers as stand-alone peripherals stand much of a chance for wide deployment except at merchants check-out terminals. I predict that eventually smart card access will occur in keyboards for little additional cost to the user...I am guessing that happens with Finread.
As I said, I can live with a depressed share price...I don't think it's necessary for Wave to go broadcasting to the whole world what they are doing until they are established in the box and doing good business in the after-market Premium Services. First mover advantage will become even stronger after Wave is established.
The next major goal for Wave and something I believe we will have a much better touch on in both in this quarter and next quarter, is an understanding of the services business model and sort of scope of adoption. We have a tremendous product in that market. We're getting really good feedback that our key management product is a product that people are demanding, that they need, that they have real pain for. But we’re still in the early stages. The understanding of what ultimately the business model will be on that, how that business model that we’ve articulated to them ultimately gets adopted and how it is scaled, I think we’ll begin to have better picture on over the course of the next four to six months. And ultimately that drives a much larger scale of revenue. We make $.50 or a dollar per platform for bundled software, we believe we can make 20 or $30 a year off of the services relationship with an end user desktop. So obviously, what percentage of the market takes and needs those kinds services, how we protect that kind of economic and revenue stream, is going to be very important to the company. One of our next major goals is to really establish that less as theory and more as fact. And I think we’re well on the path to do that. And we’re going to do that hand-in-hand with our major customers who are helping us take and promote these products to market.
So the momentum in the market is building. The products that Wave has built and continues to invest in are products that are very closely aligned with what the customers are asking for, and what the customers want to buy. We see the phase that we’re in today as, in essence, a real estate phase. It's really important to be out there. Be in the box. Be the technology of choice that’s bundled on the platform, so that we can leverage that relationship and that presence that we have in front of the customer, introduce them to the aftermarket services that enable the broader revenue stream for Wave. We are able to do that on an economic model where we're paid to be in the box. And we can realize ultimately the long-term revenue from the services side, and we think that that's going to be a very substantial business.
dj, according to your e-mail he suggested that licensing revenue alone could bring the break-even point at the current burn rate.
We are paid on every
motherboard that ships and every national enable machine. As I stated we have
volumes in the tens of thousands per month today and we have clear indications
that taker that to hundreds of thousands by mid year 2004 and potentially to
millions by the end of next year. This could potentially drive use to cashflow
breakeven on the current burn rate.
dj, your diligence is appreciated. R2. e/
Thanks UncleverName, it's rewarding to have them in safekeeping (no pun intended to NSM!) at your site, and awk how did you manage that bit of magic to paste them here?
Unclever, you will note that SKS erroneously referred to KTM as Key Transaction Manager in the CC when it is actually Key Transfer Manager. I think that was a slip on his part...dunno if your transcript can note that.
Thanks.
Ramsey
Thanks gentleman...smart man. e/
an iggy for mbarr. e/
Let's cheer up the atmosphere a little bit. Check out this cogent post from tophersaint re: today's Caisse d'Epargne announcement:
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB00135&read=103241
That's an interesting idea pulsetaker and I realize you are perhaps just poking fun, but the problem with that is everybody participating would have to be an accredited investor!
18,900 asking @ 2.35
Very tempting.
Doma
1. You know I am no techie, but the mobile connection has gotta be something to do with the Embassy hardware IP...doesn't wireless need programmability more urgently than the PC?
I still like your EE Times UK find where Steven is quoted as saying that the PC market will demand a programmable chip within a couple of years. During the CC he reiterated the position that Wave's business model is driven by services and not the supplying of the hardware...Wave does not seek to be a chip vendor. However I still feel more comfortable with the future if Wave hardware IP plays a role in future TCG designs.
2. I heard Steven saying that a TPM PC is a more attractive deployment vehicle for the European banking system than smart card readers because it solves the problem of supplying the equipment to the user, mainly consumers. Consumers don't want to pay, so once TPMs are ubiqitous (essentially free to the consumer) in consumer PCs, Finread will gain traction...could be awhile?
Class A, good point 24601. e/
Wave and Caisse d'Epargne will demonstrate a trusted PC-based secure payment service that is until today only available to consumers using GSM standard mobile phones. This is potentially a significant technology and market breakthrough as Europeans demand strong authentication mechanisms to access Internet services.
Caisse d'Epargne was the first bank in France to launch a strong authentication service on the Internet called ID-TRONIC. The service, certified by VISA, is used to certify payments and also to sign contracts. Caisse d'Epargne has choosen TPM-based computers as a second means of payment and strong authentication because they answer three critical criteria: large-scale deployment, ease of use and no extra cost to the consumer for the service.
Sounds like Caisse d'Epargne believes the TPM deployment will happen. I think the no extra cost to the consumer is critical to mass consumer adoption.
Nice to see TCG and the TPM in the European arena. Thanks boombreaker for instantaneous delivery of the news!
I can't tell by reading the PR if the Caisse d'Epargne e-payment service is possible as part of the existing client-side ETS (ETS Business/Professional Editions) or if it requires another ETS application not yet specified.
In any case, it raises the question of how ETS will be delivered to the TPM-enabled Euro consumer. At the present time we have the Intel D865GRH motherboard and the NSM SafeKeeper bundled with ETS. Will these TPMs find their way onto retail PCs soon? Will a TPM be offered on the NEC Packard Bell/Wave Secure PC? Will the Euro TPM consumer user buy ETS from Wave directly?
More Biddle/SKS
Wave as a company is building software to do today some very simple applications like file folder encryption and document signing, etc. which actually I think many of those will ultimately become functions and features within the operating system.
As previously discussed here, does this imply a possible licensing of some basic ETS functions to Longhorn or even current Windows, will MSFT be permitted to replicate these basic functions or will Wave simply donate them to the cause?
From the Biddle/SKS transcript (thanks again UncleverName)...
There’s a whole bunch of things that TCG helps to enable when I get to the next two parts, which is the LaGrande technology and NGSCB, which allows me to do things like bulk encryption and trusted execution of an application or some form of higher-level function than just, here’s a secret; hide the secret; and then regurgitate the secret, under a certain policy.
I like the allows me part...sure sounds LaGrande/NGSCB will enable SKS to take the TCG platform to the next levels.
UncleverName, thanks for your diligence! e/
awk, good diggin' and dot connectin'! e/
Sounds good Wildman262! e/
Great dot connecting awk! e/
waverider/2004riptide
Seriously, the proceeds from recent SSPX sales (all three of them) could have been be appropriately allocated towards the cost of RSA, Cartes 2003 and the Finread exhibits here in the U.S.
I am not suggesting that these trade shows and demos would necessarily gobble all that up, nor do I insist that in fact were the funds even used for that purpose...but you get my drift? Maybe they wanted to hire two more engineers or whatever, it's still money at this point and it counts for something.