UncleverName, as always thanks for your hard work in reproducing the CCs. They are so much better to have in this form.
IMO this is a CC to remember.
Wave is in a very interesting period in its history, and we’re really transitioning from a development stage into a production stage company.
I think the disappointment shared by a number of posters was the lack of specific revenue guidance going forward, but it's obvious that Wave is simply not entitled to release deployment numbers and product information relating to Wave's OEM customers until such time as these companies together with the TCG decide to go public. Personally I agree with the stealth mode, the only issue, assuming that Wave becomes profitable and the share price is rewarded, is that near-term lack of visibility tends to perpetuate a gradual sell-off, eroding the share price which lowers the price for the next financing round. Actually a believer in Wave's ultimate success can offset the added dilution from the lower offering price, albeit by assuming the additional rsik of increasing their investment, by adding to their holding at these lower prices. For example, I am planning on increasing my stake substantially at current levels (under 2.50) an opportunity I would not have had Wave been able to bolster the share price. When I calculate the additional return down the road from buying at these levels compared to higher prices it more than offsets the additional dilution we will incur as a result of a depressed offering price (even if it's very low).
There are many companies and customers that we have that can benefit from trusted computing, who understand what Wave can do and what we can provide, and where we already have an existing relationship and can convert them to supporting the trusted computing specification, as well as the existing technologies that we're providing them today.
The Caisse d'Epargne news is more meaningful than certain doubters might think. IMO this more than just another demo of a technology that might get launched. The difference here is that Wave has realized that much of the Embassy technology and projects can be now leveraged into the TPM platform, just as basic client ETS has been. The only thing IMO that will derail this is if TPMs flop, which looks unlikely since deployment is moving forward, driven by the huge TCG players, and user feedback is positive. The cost of TPMs are virtually nonexistent. It will be very interesting to how Finread is ultimately folded into the TCG platform, if I am permitted to make that assumption. It doesn't seem that smart card readers as stand-alone peripherals stand much of a chance for wide deployment except at merchants check-out terminals. I predict that eventually smart card access will occur in keyboards for little additional cost to the user...I am guessing that happens with Finread.
As I said, I can live with a depressed share price...I don't think it's necessary for Wave to go broadcasting to the whole world what they are doing until they are established in the box and doing good business in the after-market Premium Services. First mover advantage will become even stronger after Wave is established.
The next major goal for Wave and something I believe we will have a much better touch on in both in this quarter and next quarter, is an understanding of the services business model and sort of scope of adoption. We have a tremendous product in that market. We're getting really good feedback that our key management product is a product that people are demanding, that they need, that they have real pain for. But we’re still in the early stages. The understanding of what ultimately the business model will be on that, how that business model that we’ve articulated to them ultimately gets adopted and how it is scaled, I think we’ll begin to have better picture on over the course of the next four to six months. And ultimately that drives a much larger scale of revenue. We make $.50 or a dollar per platform for bundled software, we believe we can make 20 or $30 a year off of the services relationship with an end user desktop. So obviously, what percentage of the market takes and needs those kinds services, how we protect that kind of economic and revenue stream, is going to be very important to the company. One of our next major goals is to really establish that less as theory and more as fact. And I think we’re well on the path to do that. And we’re going to do that hand-in-hand with our major customers who are helping us take and promote these products to market.
So the momentum in the market is building. The products that Wave has built and continues to invest in are products that are very closely aligned with what the customers are asking for, and what the customers want to buy. We see the phase that we’re in today as, in essence, a real estate phase. It's really important to be out there. Be in the box. Be the technology of choice that’s bundled on the platform, so that we can leverage that relationship and that presence that we have in front of the customer, introduce them to the aftermarket services that enable the broader revenue stream for Wave. We are able to do that on an economic model where we're paid to be in the box. And we can realize ultimately the long-term revenue from the services side, and we think that that's going to be a very substantial business.
AI
