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Hmmm..to answer that question, I suppose you would have to ask, does past performance always predict future performance?
This forum is for discussing this stock and company, its management, and its worth. If one wants nothing but promotional and "fuzzy feelings" they can go to other promotional site where any discouraging words are deleted or constant editing occurs to say just the right things to give those "fuzzy feelings".
This is the stock market, this is a pinky stock in the low end of the stock market. That comes with all the realities and discussion of the negatives of this stock and its management. Truths about this market, this shell game, and DFs incompetence are not going to be positive or "fuzzy feeling" or promoting in order to hold on to a shareholder base to transfer into another shell.
No one has made this stock or company fail just because they have stated truths and facts that have come to pass and a matter of record. Stating differences of opinion that are not all positive and promotional have not driven the pps down and made bag-holders and losses. It has been constant dilution, shell games, and this company's constant PRd statements that have not come to pass for years.
Sorry for ones sadness, but this is what it is, life and trading the pinkies. No one can change that, the best thing is for one to realize it and deal with it, not be sad or put blame on anyone or anything but BEHL.
You won't find me pulling my punches and stating a baloney promoter when I see one or when I see just crud from a company. Sorry if it offends, but that is just the way I am and too old to change now and I just don't want to anyway. Nothing but "fuzzy feeling" and hiding of negative truths just looses money in any business, but especially this one. There's no crying in the stock market.
Dear jbsliverer,
Awww...c'mon, give me some credit.
Did it ever occur to you that you may be wrong? I'm sure it's happened before.
I haven't been played, and I won't allow that to happen...however, it seems that you have. I'm sorry for that, but there is nothing I can do about it but try to move forward with what I know and the resources I have.
The only satisfaction I will have in outcome - be it failure or success - is that I gave it all I had. Sometimes, that is enough.
Thank you for your correspondence,
LOTM
Let me tell you, I do believe that you will become a victim with DF and that he is a charlatan. Thats my belief and I am entitled to my opinion.
I have given this company a chance, believe me, and have had many professionals look into this system and it just needs a lot of redesigning and it is mismanaged by the wrong people.
I do believe that there will be more room for algae, I do promote the algae idea. Why my group and myself have more money into the algae business than this company is worth. Of course it is through a third party investment group and diversified into several of the private industry. Do I care if some might take that as some worry for BEHL to be any competition, no chance. If BEHL was a valid company, my group would of been ready to invest in them. But there system sucks (to put it simply) and won't deliver what is needed to succeed (at least that is what my research and professionals tell me) along with the phony tactics of this companies promoters and the tactics that DF and company is using. Just pinky shell games.
And yea, it just tees me off to have "victims" created (especially in the algae field) and I hope you can find a way to succeed and help to have algae succeed, it really does have a lot of promise, but I don't believe it will be with this company or its product and belief alone will not make it succeed -- you are getting set up for a lot of problems and non workability and increased costs above any projection. And yes algae is a little ways off and a generation for full potential, so I wish you luck.
Just trying to cause undue attention to nothing that was racist or against anyone but this company and their promoter and promotional site. The only way to pump this stock, use nothing but non reality and try to get the real attention that shows irresponsibilities and mismanagement and charade of this company.
It is DF and company that is showing disrespect to the vets and American Indians by using them. Nothing can be said backing up this company that is real and only trying to get attention off the negatives of this company is the only tactics that seem to be used. Number one warning sign of any company when that is the only means to try to hide the charade this company is.
Well one definitely will be able to do that soon if this whole deal happens, get ready, going to be able to buy for nothing at some point. Of course it will be a long, long time before any profits could be realized if ever. One could make a lot more money in many other things in the time it will take for any possible gains with this stock (I'm talking "investing" and not very short term trading).
Like I said, one needs to take the upcoming burn to a learned lesson and experience. As long as one learns the lesson and just doesn't do it over and over, its all good. For the young and inexperienced, its a good lesson. Just one should never put more into a pinky shell like this one than they can afford to loose. I hope no one sets themselves up for total devastation on this one, one should keep something to survive on just in case.
What was the trades yesterday, a whole couple of thousand bucks the whole day total, just guessing. I think people need to step up the buying for the "real burn" feel later. Get the full effect of loosing when this thing dilutes and falls in pps and worth unless any holders grab any spike in pps that might or might not happen.
Lots of bag-holders of this stock, its what desperately DF and company is counting on to fill the new shell with, thats how its done. Bag-holders with dreams that can't sell now due to not trading this right and now needing astronomical gains to see any profit and hoping and following the dreams and hopes blinding the reality of failures now and in the future of this company. One year from now the holdings and hopeful will be worth even less than now and the lessons will be learned. This pinky market is full of these hopes and dreams, the phony companies, reverse razzle dazzles, product failures, and dilution in which this company will go into the dust with.
There has been only filings for resignation of old officers of the old company at SOS Nevada making this a true shell with no officers and only shares. There has been no filings for DF and/or company buying this as of yet and no new officers or owners filed yet. But BEHL is selling shares still and shareholders are paying for the purchase of this shell, so maybe in the near future. No filings anywhere yet for DF and company and no "free shares" to fall in value has been reported. It is just a shell at this point and no legal business. Still waiting.
It is too bad that no success will be had here with BEHL or at least it will not be the success that is promised. Believed benefits will turn into negative consequences of failed investments. It's also to bad that one would "applaud" making of a victim of a charade and failed company. It is truly sad. There has been many people that have thought that they "truly understand" and later really understand what DF and company is all about. Not the fault of anyone to believe for a time in DFs baloney and false sales tactics or promotions, just people like DF, shell games, and failed ideas and businesses are part of life. All in my view of what is going down here.
There has been nothing "positive" with what has been stated by any VAR of BEHL or any Ms. Young, only more of the same things that have been noted before. And it doesn't have anything to do with anyone but DF and company(s). It doesn't have anything to do with anyone else personally or having a "class act" or not.
Only the three monkey theorem can make "positive" out of what has been said by a claimed VAR. For ones who see this company for what it is and the fact it has no working system except the shell game it has been only more confirmation of the sadness and negative about this stock.
Trade if one can, but any "investment" in these again and again "cheapies" are going to be a loss. And even the trade is a risk that these "cheapies" might only get cheaper. The manipulation that is going on is only the job of stabilization of pps that goes with selling and diluting of so many shares by the company. They can't let it break the .0005 or it will be a lower low and a failure once again to maintain worth and not get even less money for the shares. But the pps will go lower eventually, just a matter of time. But there might be a trade in it selling to the ones that follow the promoters and believe in the three monkey theorem.
Selling these pinkies are all the time to followers of promoters and believers of loss causes, manipulation, shorts, and other things that people choose to fault except the company. Money is made on those people all the time -- the market is full of those people and is what feeds the profits of experienced traders. Too many just take a certain amount to loose in order to learn – many (including myself) have had their losses and learning, just the way the market and life
In fact if there is any so called "new light", it is that what the realist and the more sensible (called bashers by the promoters) have said has come true and now a fact. I said when they were calling "best for the shareholders" reverse razzle dazzle that BEHL was going to continue to dilute and increase the share structure and they have. BB said that they were going to be unreporting in the financials and not audited as DF stated and now it is a "limited information" and going down in the pink sheet listing. I and others said the value would drop due to the shell game and it is less than a third in value since the shell game was announced. And of course, nothing that DF and company(s) have said has come true in that same time as of this point just like 95%+ of what DF has said for years has not come true. Strange what "see no evil" "light" is, but with eyes covered it can only be imagined and dreamed of.
There is no new light, just more of the same, if this isn't just another promoter type poster posing, who knows. But like I said just more of the same thing the more seasoned traders and market experienced has been saying all along. Just more examples of the charlatan that DF is viewed as and the shell game that is posing as something real using the upcoming algae industry for a non working product and selling of the shell game and the sadness of the victims involved.
But some will say thanks for the lesson as time evolves. This has been played many times before and there is always new people to be played. The market will always have this type of charade and victims that are good people that fall for it.
This "content" and "perspective' is very sad -- just another source for DF and company to swindle money from. DF and company(s) algae system is totally flawed and won't work for production as it is designed. Of course the share selling will work and sales pitch can get to some people. But it has been said "time will definitely tell" and it will -- it just won't be positive for the "believers" and the victims of this charade.
The algae industry is way ahead and sales are already being set up with working systems and real business plans that are more advanced and will be the real market of the algae business. This company will disappear in the dust of pinky share selling and failed ideas along with its forgotten victims.
First they need to file as a legal company, no filings yet. Then if they do, your "free" shares will plummet in value to the total worth together to less than what it is now as more selling of shares will occur. Diversifying to even a greater loss.
You could give the same "intelligent" level to the holders of this stock if you want, all subjective discussion. But the fact is that there was "intelligent" people that were not just greedy in Madoff and other rip offs, and there are "intelligent" people that are scammers. And many promoters are nothing but "intelligent" scammers who prey on "believers".
But for me, the cards are all showing and on the table here with BEHL. It's like the winner is collecting his pot and someone wants to give him some more of their money and throws some of their pile of chips at the guy who is doing the collecting and the hand is already over, no more to bet on. Thats not gambling, just donating for no reason.
There were intelligent people in constant contact with Benard Madoff, spongy co, and many other rip offs and thought they "knew". Still didn't stop swindling of monies though.
Your right. The influence and manipulation lately is the attempt to stabilize the pps for selling of shares. Right now it is highly overpriced for the value of this company and is not worth even the .0005-.0006. That price is way to high for the value of this company. That is why there is not a whole lot of pressure or volume to buy up the "cheapies".
Anyone who sold before would have made money and not lost as much as any holder due to one can buy up right now as many as they want for a lower price than they sold. But like you said, in pinky land, the price does not always reflect a companies worth and in this case for DF and companies worth, the pps is way to high for the true value of this shell.
Last night was a utter joke and a total disgrace to the algae industry and even women in business and confirming that the "interviewer" is nothing but a promotional tool and no validity can in my view be given to the obvious promoters. It also in my view confirmed that this charade is nothing but a twisted shell game made up of nothing but incompetent company execs to fleece money from shareholders.
It does nothing but remind me of "sponge" games with a company that makes up a "customer" (creating a spike in pps and more bag-holders), turning from a buying customer to a shell creation with DF and company at the helm. One hand paying the other on paper, now never to be audited paper. Problems are not with the SOS of Nevada, its this charade that is having a problem fitting to the criteria of one of the easiest states to create a business in.
Going to be a bigger problem fitting to the criteria for up-listing of BNPD which I think might just go by the wayside with some bla, bla, bla it will be in the future statement.
DF and co. has lost any real talent, valid CEOs and other talent leaving, JV leaving, PR'd "Harvard" CEO's that "don't have the time" for them, on and on reducing them to this group of "family" and token CEO's, etc. to play the shell game.
This company(s) and their promoters are getting more and more exposed and last night was one big exposure. To me this type of thing is just plain disgusting and to bad so many good people have lost their money on this. I really hope that the SEC and other regulatory entities can crack down on this type of pinky goings on.
Just a note on SEC and FINRA who were both involved in the "spongy" deal: SEC vs FINRA
This is just one example (there are more) of how real companies work and how real business of selling product -- not shares and shell games like DF and Co is doing.
Solazyme and Roquette Sign Agreement to Create Global Nutritional Joint Venture
South San Francisco, CA & Lestrem, France | Posted on November 8th, 2010
Solazyme, Inc. the California-based leader in renewable oil and bioproducts and Roquette Frères, the global starch and starch-derivatives company headquartered in France, today announce that they have signed a joint venture (JV) agreement for the production, commercialization and market development of microalgae-derived food ingredients, subject to regulatory approvals and notifications.
The JV is being formed to launch an entirely new category of natural, healthy and functional ingredients based on microalgae that provide superior nutritional properties along with outstanding taste and texture. Solazyme-Roquette Nutritionals plans to launch a variety of oil, protein and fiber based products aimed at delivering improved performance with a vastly superior health profile compared to ingredients in the market today.
The JV, which will be 50% owned by each parent company, will be named Solazyme-Roquette Nutritionals, and will be operational by the beginning of 2011. The JV's management team and board of directors will be drawn from both parent companies with Solazyme's CEO, Jonathan Wolfson serving as the initial CEO of the JV. Roquette will fund and build a JV-owned, commercial-scale manufacturing plant with capacity in the tens of thousands of tons of annual production, sited at a Roquette corn wet mill. In addition, Roquette will provide upfront licensing payments to Solazyme and working capital to fund the JV until reaching profitability.
This JV combines Roquette's history and capabilities as a global food ingredient supplier with Solazyme's highly innovative microalgae-based technology. Like Solazyme, Roquette has been actively developing a microalgal nutritional platform and runs the ALGOHUB® program while currently selling algae-based nutritional products. Roquette also possesses strong global manufacturing assets, and access to carbohydrate feedstock in multiple geographies through its network of highly efficient mills. In addition, the JV will leverage Roquette's large, global nutritional sales force to stimulate rapid market entry and provide access to major food companies worldwide. The merger of Roquette's extensive resources with Solazyme's revolutionary microalgae-derived food ingredient technology, which includes heart-healthy algal flours and oils, will provide solutions that improve both product functionality and nutritional profile in large market food ingredient applications.
"Roquette is a family-owned company with outstanding values which create the basis for a long-term relationship with Solazyme. Beyond that, Roquette provides a total package including feedstock, manufacturing and applications expertise, and robust sales, marketing and customer relationships," says Jonathan Wolfson, CEO and co-founder of Solazyme. "Combined with Solazyme's technology, the joint venture is extremely well-equipped to commercialize revolutionary natural products into the food industry that provide all of the performance benefits consumers have come to expect, while providing the improved nutritional profiles they deserve."
"Solazyme and Roquette share a very clearly-defined vision that microalgae will provide a major new class of food ingredients and we enter this JV very enthusiastic about the future," says Guy Talbourdet, CEO of Roquette. Marc Roquette, Chairman of Roquette continued, "We believe that along with Roquette, Solazyme possesses the most innovative microalgal food ingredient technology in the world, and we look forward to using our extensive skills and assets to help bring this technology to market."
####
About Solazyme
Solazyme, Inc. is a renewable oil and bioproducts company and the leader in algal biotechnology. Founded in 2003 and headquartered in South San Francisco, Solazyme’s unique technology produces renewable oils and biomaterials in standard fermentation facilities quickly, efficiently and at large scale. These oils and biomaterials provide replacements for fossil petroleum and plant oils in a diverse range of products running from clean fuels and chemicals to cosmetics and foods. Solazyme’s oils provide compelling solutions to increasingly complex issues of fuel and food scarcity, energy security and environmental impact while fitting cleanly into the pre-existing multi-trillion dollar production, distribution and consumption infrastructure. Solazyme’s investors among others include Morgan Stanley, Braemar Energy Ventures, Harris & Harris Group, Lightspeed Venture Partners, The Roda Group, and VantagePoint Venture Partners. For more information, please visit our website at www.solazyme.com
About Roquette Frères
Founded in 1933 in Lestrem (Nord Pas de Calais – France), the ROQUETTE Group is one of the world’s leading starch producers. As a bio-refiner, it converts renewable natural resources (such as wheat, corn, potatoes and peas) into a range of ingredients for the food processing, chemicals and pharmaceuticals industries. Reliability, expertise, innovation, anticipating needs and supporting its customers lie at the heart of ROQUETTE’s products and services. Keen to build on its leadership position while continuing to innovate and diversify, this family-run business has made nutrition one of its key areas of development, expressed in tangible terms through an ambitious, dedicated research program, NUTRAHUB®. The aim of this program is to generate value from functional ingredients derived from plant raw materials, in particular microalgae. These last offer high potential in Nutrition and Health, and ROQUETTE Group runs a dedicated Research Program ALGOHUB®, with partners, launched 2 years ago, to develop new ingredients solutions. ROQUETTE has the objective to develop microalgae and extracts as high value-added ingredients. By the creation of this JV, ROQUETTE Group confirms its will to be a major actor in the microalgae industry, worldwide. For more information, please visit our website: www.roquette.com
Well let me know if she gets out the guitar and sings kum ba ya at the end.
Well I just had to shut it off (25 minutes and nothing), one big long commercial. Kind of like the Xmas story when the little kid finally got his decoder ring and all it said "eat your oval-tine" and the little disappointed kid just said a friggin commercial. What a joke. Just a promotional plug. If there is anything constructive in the second half, I'm sure I'll hear something on it later, I've got better things to do than listen to a long winded radio promotion.
To each their own for sure. Wasn't spinning, just saying the bottom line dollar, numbers only. What one feels how to spend their dollar is totally up to them. As long as one knows the risks and is really willing to loose it all and the loss won't take away from anything, it's fine.
Problem is with false hopes and dreams and not realizing what the pinky market is, how dilution works, how pinky reverse dividends work, incompetent management, and the shell games that work against the value of any sub pinky stock that is showing no success such as DF and co. and only giving out misconceptions and sub penny promotional tactics that just are for taking advantage on the less knowing and naive who only listen to some baloney promoter who can put words together to say what the hopeful wants to hear on a strictly promotional site.
The value of this company(s) is going to go down (minus small surges here and there) -- that is no "investment" and worth no "long shares" to me. Show me some success and I might change my mind, but the outlook doesn't look positive here.
There is no such thing as "free shares". It's a loss, could of sold them a long time ago when one should have and made money in the pocket and bought in again if wanted for a lot cheaper. It was money lost no matter what one might call it. Trading this pig has been the least of most other pinky trading out there so the few times when it jumped I made in day if not hrs with no "free shares" held due to that was the better money play.
Holding on to obvious falling downtrend is just money not gained no matter whether they are a cost of zero or not.
Or just know when to get the heck out when its obvious that dilution will most always take any worth down. Instead of dreaming of dreams and wanting to believe the baloney and doing way too much following instead of leading oneself and just looking at normal pinky market analysis, the real facts, and not being naive in thinking BEHL is different, when this type of stuff is just normal pinky playing not "investment" hopes and dreams.
Most common in the Pinky Shell Game. Thats how it works. These are not successful businesses here. Just shells buying shells with no real product or income other than share selling.
Still more where that came from. There's plenty more for sale.
Buy those cheapies, support your local DF holidays. He might as well file for a non-profit status -- oh wait, lots of profit in selling of shells. LOL
In short order, algae may actually become a viable alternative for nutrition and propulsion...at least for the next foreseable future
Especially the share selling part, at least that is all that is making money for DF and company at this point. Look at all the 6s going and now gone. Buy those cheapies. LOL
About all the promotion can do is mislead, delete the truths, and edit, edit, edit, and more edit. Try to put the attention on the realists and call them names, not daring or incapable to allow the real reasons with the faults of the company be heard. Thrash around in the cage and be laughed at by the more experienced and less naive.
Pretty obvious of the constant dilution here, the promoters better dig deep into the pockets (or pick the pockets of the flock) -- lots of shares to soak up. The needed financing and the lack of volume (or lack of interest past the cage) will only create a lower ask needed to get any money at all. But "hold on to the shares", "free shares" and more advertising coming. LOL.
None of it is free when the shareholders are footing the bill and will have less value later.
Lack of working product turned into some future health drink - that will do it -- DF and company can sell more shares and finance some more for a while on that one. What a joke this company has become.
Analysts Weigh In On Q3 Earnings & Beyond
Posted on November 10, 2010
by Dennis “Cos” Costa
With all the excitement and contract announcement expectations leading into Sirius XM Radio’s (NASDAQ:SIRI) third quarter conference call and earnings release, the numbers are in and the contract announcements were muted. Analysts are now weighing in on the company’s valuation and future targets for the company’s stock. Sirius XM posted solid numbers that beat analyst expectations with earnings of a .01 per share on a fully diluted basis, with top-line revenue growth of over $722M.
The company clearly is back to its winning ways under the direction of CEO Mel Karmazin, as displayed by five consecutive quarters of net subscriber additions, resulting in record total subscribers of over 19.86M, as of September 30th, 2010. Subscriber and revenue growth has occurred during a time when its major partners, the auto manufacturing sector, has struggled to regain its footing in a choppy economy, led by a wary consumer.
Sirius XM’s subscription model is second only to Comcast Corp (NYSE:CMCSA), which reported a decline in its video customers of 275k in its third quarter earnings report, and total subscribers of just under 22.9M. With Sirius XM being projected to end the year with over 20.1M subscribers, and the current direction of Comcast’s subscriber growth, it won’t be long before the Satellite Radio provider will be claiming the number one spot for subscriber based business models.
Depending on the type of valuation model used, and criteria for releasing opinions on companies that they follow, some analysts released their ratings before the conference call, or any time that specific criteria is met. BGB securities analyst Murray Arenson, who uses all information available, but specifically employs a weighted per subscriber value method, placed a Hold rating from a Buy on the company’s shares. He maintained his target price on SIRI of $1.50. Arenson cited his valuation concerns, given the recent run-up in the stock’s price. He reiterated his value of $489 per subscriber, and uses fully diluted shares of ~6.5B to reach his price target. With total subscriber numbers being released early, in mid October, he was able to adjust his rating accordingly the day after the release.
Wunderlich Securities’ analyst Matthew Harrigan, released his upgraded price target of $1.75, and reiterated his Buy on shares of SIRI, just one day before company earnings were released, confusing many investors with his timing. Harrigan uses a blended methodology, but accentuated the October auto sales of ~12M, and a neutral effect from the Howard Stern contract outcome, combined with good company execution, for his price target upgrade. Harrigan’s rating has more to do with auto run-rates and their relationship to Sirius XM’s revenues and free cash flow, than to backward-looking numbers, which the third quarter results represent. He has Sirius XM trading at $2.20 per share, on a 2011 normalized auto sale run-rate of 13M vehicles.
Other analysts waited to release their opinions after confirmation of the earnings report and completion of the conference call, as was the case with Standard and Poor’s analyst Tuna Amobi. He released a note to investors, reiterating his Buy rating on the company, and set a new twelve month target price of $2.00, up from his previous target of 1.50. Standard and Poor’s is a results and event based ratings organization, that generally releases full reports annually, with notes to the report that updates analyst assumptions and resulting changes to valuation, throughout the year. In May, when Sirius XM did not provide updated guidance for 2010, S&P maintained its Hold opinion. It wasn’t until August, when the second quarter results, a surprise in net subscriber additions of 583K, combined with the company’s own end of the year upward guidance was reported, did the S&P upgrade their opinion of the company’s shares to a Buy rating.
In the week following the Sirius XM earnings report, in which forward looking guidance was restricted to end of year 2010 results, analysts have been mixed in their willingness to provide much in the way of forward looking guidance. Analysts have generally continued to maintain positive opinions on the company’s execution, but appear to be waiting for company guidance to move their projections higher. Given the stock’s significant move higher, a 60% appreciation in two months leading up to the earnings release, caution is understandable at this juncture.
In the case of Maxim’s John Tinker, who initiated coverage with a Buy rating and an extensive analysis of company metrics earlier this year, he continues to see the company’s stock as a Buy, and raised his price target on shares to $1.80. Mr. Tinker’s valuation is based on 18 times 2011 Enterprise Value (EV) / EBITDA. Tinker sees Sirius XM’s long term EBITDA growth rate as being 24%, which gives the company the premium multiple that he applied. Mr. Tinker previously placed a multiple of 14.5 on the company and had a price target of $1.40 per share.
On Tuesday, November 9th, Gabelli and Company’s Brett Harris, moved the shares of SIRI to a Hold from its previous Buy rating. The analyst stated valuation as his primary concern, and that he still “likes Sirius’ fundamental business and believes net subscriber additions will continue as the US auto market recovers.” He also see continued subscriber growth coming from re-activations, and net losses from retail aftermarket subscribers decreasing. His concerns are that the equity is currently trading at 20 times this years EBITDA, and at about 15 times 2011. This is the type of rating downgrade that comes from Sirius XM’s lack of guidance for 2011 in my opinion.
We have Miller Tabak’s David Joyce, who downgraded the company’s shares at the end of September, from Buy to Neutral, because SIRI was trading close to his short term price target of $1.25, while he maintained his long term target of $1.45. The day after the conference call, Mr. Joyce maintained his Neutral rating and upgraded his long term target to $1.65. For many analysts, the company providing guidance for 2011 is essential to their moving their recommendations to higher levels at this point.
To further this thought, we have a price target update released today by Janco Partners’, who is using 2011 EBITDA projection of $702M to derive a price per share of $1.54, using a 2011 multiple of 14 times. Now we know the company is growing EBITDA at a rate of 30% for 2010 year over year, and even being cautious with auto sales at 12M SAAR for 2011, we can apply a 24% EBITDA growth rate, and derive a 2011 number of $744M. That number is based on the company’s own end of the year projections for EBITDA of $600M. On this evaluation, Janco’s analyst changes his rating, downgrading SIRI shares to Accumulate from Buy. Again, these are the types of recommendations that truly confuse the retail investor in my opinion.
Lastly we have RBC Capital Markets’ David Bank, a well recognized analyst who continues to maintain the company at a Sector Perform, with an upgraded target price of $1.25 per share. Mr. Banks is evidently concerned about competitive technological risk from on-line radio, and smart phone devices over the next decade. This is an example in my opinion, of an analyst who simply does not believe in the company’s ability to generate continued EBITDA growth as it relates to generating free cash going forward. His notes indicate that in 2011 the Music Royalty Fee (other revenue), and merger synergies, will be fully “baked-in”, creating deceleration in EBITDA growth. The fact of the matter is, that as long as subscriber growth continues, so will the fees related to the Music Royalty charge now being assessed to every new and renewing subscriber. Further, with interest rates declining on debt and Capital Expense diminishing by mid 2011, free cash flow will continue to improve over the next several years.
As we move towards mid fourth quarter, there are still some analysts who have not changed their price targets or client recommendations on the shares. One can only assume that they continue to wait for more clarity from the company for 2011 financial and operating guidance. Many have speculated that until current premium content negotiations are completed, and the details impacting the company’s financial results are known, that the stock’s price may just be moving sideways awaiting direction from the next catalyst.
Position: Long SIRI
Contact the Author at:denniscosta@newmarketplayers.com
I get back from vacation and see this thing just has kept doing what the less naive and more experienced know. BEHL and BNPD is just a common shell game. Been done many, many, times.
For anyone who isn't just a follower of the promoter, its been obvious -- fundamentally, technically, and just common market knowledge and sense. This thing has done and continuing to do what I've and many others have said. BEHL is only a financing vehicle and it is the shareholders that are footing the cost of the new shell and when all said and done, the new shell will become a new financing vehicle. Reverse split, errr reverse razzle, errr reverse dazzle, or yea reverse "dividend" is used this way all the time to bring over a shareholders base to start the process all over again with the goal of a higher pps for selling into.
It's too bad that BEHL couldn't make this thing work, but it is not a contender in the algae production market anymore. The only interest of big money is just selling shares, which is a good market. But the algae business or industry is a lot more than just plastic tubes and algae grown. That is the easiest part. The guts to the business is the harvesting, extracting, production of the correct algae and SELLING of that product. DF has had plenty of time to prove that he has a viable product and hasn't done so. Sorry folks, what he has is just not working correctly or there would be no need to "bring to the table" another shell.
It seems that he can't even do a free advertising right (interview by a heavy holder and promotional site) or just doesn't care, or just maybe knows that he can say anything and knows he pretty much has a promoter and following that can put the blinders on for just about anything.
When ever the truth has to be suppressed (constant deletion of the truth is the same as lying) and the promotion has to be edited or re-explained many times on a constant basis, something is terribly wrong.
Any value of this "investment" will just be going down from here and that is the combination of the two shells. I said that before at the time the promoter was saying "hold your shares" for that "dividend" in which I was right on exactly what would happen (I wasn't the only one of course that was right) and I and others like BB said the share structure of BEHL would be increasing for financing and again was right.
This will continue to loose "investment" value with more increases of share structure and then the other shell (if it happens) will also become a decreasing value with the same tactics of the shell game so common with the pinky market. Just the way it is, people can learn from it or loose more to it, their choice.
Newmarketplayers
Sirius XM To Report Q3 Results: Expectations Or Surprises?
Posted on October 25, 2010 by Dennis
by Dennis “Cos” Costa
With Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) scheduled to report third quarter earnings on Thursday, November 4th as reported in a recent press release, investors are eager to see what the recent addition of subscribers will mean to the company’s bottom line. On October 13th the company released net subscriber additions for the third quarter of just under 335K, pushing the company’s subscriber numbers to a new record high of over 19.8M. This announcement of record subscriber numbers pushed the company’s stock price to a new high for the year of $1.40 per share at that day’s close.
With the conference call scheduled, and record subscriber numbers already declared, investors are now looking for the next catalyst to bring new money into the investment pool, driving the stock price even higher. With that purpose in mind, I thought it prudent to separate the hype from the reality and take a look at what the upcoming call most likely will mean for investors as a singular event.
Of course with Sirius XM its not always the reported numbers that move the company’s stock price. Contract announcements for content, such as the pending Howard Stern deal and the NFL agreement, each having year end deadlines, are also potential stock price movers, depending on the outcome of those agreements and the reported details. Debt restructuring announcements, with improved interest payments and extended maturity dates, also serve as catalysts or stability-building events in the stock’s price, showing improving credit conditions and reflecting an overall lower default risk. The result of favorable debt restructuring draws the attention of the credit rating agencies, resulting in credit risk upgrades from both Moody’s Investor Services and Standard and Poor’s.
To begin the analysis of Sirius XM’s third quarter financial performance, an estimate of Total revenue is a good place to start. Total Revenue is comprised of Subscriber revenue net rebates, Ad revenue net fees, Equipment revenue, and Other revenue. Subscriber revenue has been providing steady year-over-year growth for the company in the first six months of 2010, at 5.35%. Sequential growth for Q2 over Q1 of 4.1% was reported in the August 2010 filing with the SEC. Subscriber revenue represents 86.5% of all revenue derived from Sirius XM Radio’s business.
The management of subscriber churn with subscriber retention incentives has an inverse relationship to Subscriber revenue. This in turn represents a key measurement of management’s effectiveness in managing subscriber retention incentives against the company’s ability to maintain subscriber revenue growth. While the growth in net subscriber additions looks and feels good to investors, subscriber revenue growth is what makes the company money. There should not be any surprises lurking in Subscriber revenue in this report, and an expectation of a sequential increase of 4.5% for Q3 over Q2, resulting in Subscriber Revenue of $628M is reasonable.
With Ad and Equipment revenue representing ~2% of total revenue each, the impact to total revenue growth is minimal, but their impact on net income and adjusted earnings from operations is more significant. The growth rate for both categories has been impressive. Ad revenue has improved Q2 over Q1 by 8.75%, and Equipment revenue has improved by 29.5% for the same period. Equipment revenue growth is attributed to royalty improvements from increased OEM installations. I see these two line items continuing to perform well, with Ad revenue posting a 9% increase to $17.2M, and Equipment revenue posting an 18% increase to $22.2M for Q3.
The most significant revenue growth driver, other than Subscriber revenue, is that generated from the U.S. Music Royalty fees passed on to new and renewing subscribers, and is found in the Other revenue category. Initiated at the end of July 2009, the Other revenue category has contributed $191M to total revenue, and $119M in the first six months of 2010, compared to $11M in the same period of 2009. The $119M represents about half of the revenue share and royalties payments currently being made by the company in 2010. While I understand that this category also includes affiliate revenues, content licensing and syndication fees, they represent a small percentage of the total category. I anticipate the Other revenue number will remain consistent at $58M for Q3.
Q3 Estimated TOTAL REVENUE: $725M
Most of Sirius XM’s operating expenses are relatively stable since restructuring the cost centers post merger. Items like Programming and Content, Customer Service, Satellite and Transmission, and others related to standard operating process for the company, are relatively fixed and apportioned throughout the quarter.
Other expenses such as, Sales and Marketing, Subscriber Acquisition Costs (SAC), Revenue Share and Royalties, while still being standard to operating process, are more variable in amount. These charges are directly proportional to the amount of subscribers the company adds during the quarter, and advertising and distribution costs necessary to support the sale of subscription based services. Sequentially from Q2, I would expect costs to decrease for Q3 for Sales and Marketing from $56M to $49M, a decrease of ~$10M in SAC from $108M to ~$98M, and small increase $2M in Revenue Share and Royalties posting an expense of $109M.
Q3 Estimate of Total OPERATING EXPENSE: $559M
Q3 Estimated Total INCOME (LOSS) FROM OPERATIONS: $166M
Other Expense is a “non operating expense” category. When looking at Cash from Operations above, this expense is not include in the calculations. Interest expense, a key component to this category, has been consistent for the first two quarters of 2010, and should remain so for this quarter at ~($77M). Without any debt restructuring resulting in Loss on Exinguishment of Debt in the third quarter, there will be a reduction in this category in Q3 over Q2, of $31.9M. This is a non-cash accounting expense that represents discounts not fully consumed throughout the life of a loan, or note’s maturity. This will result in an improvement of “net income (loss)” by that amount for Q3. Holding all other items as equal for Q3 in the other expense category, an estimate in total Other Income Expense of ~($77M) can be expected.
Q3 Estimated Total OTHER INCOME EXPENSE: ($77M)
Q3 Estimated Total NET INCOME (LOSS): $88M
EPS (Basic): $.02 per share
EPS (Diluted): $.01 per share
When trying to estimate Cash Flows for the period which determine the company’s ending Cash balance, three areas need to be evaluated; net cash from operations, net cash used in investing activities, and net cashed used in financing activities. As will be reported, the Cash balance account is reconciled over the nine months of operations for 2010.
As of June 30th the cash balance was $258M with significant financing activities taking place in Q2, impacting significantly cash used in investing activities, which was reported at ($105M). Additionally, the Q2 Cash used in investing activities was reported as ($160M), and the Cash used in operating activities was reported at $140M. Together the cash used in these three categories resulted in a depletion of the cash account by ($125M), from a balance of $383M at the beginning of the period.
With no cash being deployed in financing activities for Q3, and an estimated ($42M) cash being used in investing activity, primarily for XM5 launch and build commitments, the third quarter may provide a surprise when the cash balance is reported. With a projected net income of $88M and a growing deferred revenue account from continued subscriber growth, the company may post a net increase in cash and cash equivalents of $100M, resulting in a Cash balance of $358M as of September 30th 2010.
Estimated CASH ON HAND: $358m
Estimating EBITDA for Sirius XM is very difficult to evaluate without sitting in on the final computations with the company’s CFO. For the purpose of this estimate, a figure of $155M can be used, and would be on track with CEO Mel Karmazin’s end of year projections of over $575M at the Liberty Media Investor Meeting.
In addition, adjusted FCF reported by the company has been forecast to reach over $150M for the year 2010. Currently adjusted FCF is ($18M), representing a significant recovery in this metric for the remainder of the year. The primary drag on adjusted FCF for the company was a lump-sum payment made in January 2010 for deferred payments from 2009, and the use of cash on hand to pay for employee incentive bonuses rather than issuing stock for this payment. The second quarter showed good recovery in this category posting a positive $108M. Given the broad latitude in computing EBITDA and adjusted FCF, an estimate $125M for Q3 is reasonable.
Estimated EBITDA: $155m
Estimated ADJUSTED FCF: $ 125m
As I have assessed the financial and operating performance for the company during the third quarter of 2010, it is highly unlikely that there will be any extraordinary surprises in this upcoming report. From a stock price point of view, this report should show steady improvement in maintaining good cost containment processes, and the efficient use of cash to support operations and continued growth in the company’s primary markets. Other than a surprise to the upside in building cash on hand, this report should support current stock price levels.
With uncertainty lingering from the Howard Stern deal, I would expect range bound activity absent any other catalyst for the upcoming weeks. From what is being presented here, it will take another quarter of solid financial performance, securing the company’s premium talent, and some aggressive 2011 projections by the company to get the stock price to the next level. Mel Karmazin needs to present more accurate forecasting for future performance for the company to get the attention investors are looking for from “the street”.
Position: Long SIRI
Contact the Author at: denniscosta@newmarketplayers.com
I've pretty much said my view of things, if one wants more clarity, need to PM in order to stay with the TOUs. But yes, I see things that are pretty sad and wonder why does the company need to do it if everything is as they say or try to convince in their PRs, but it never quite pans out and they do seem to need not so desirable methods in order to dilute and sell shares.
Diluting and selling shares are part of pinky world and unfortunately so are the companies means way to common in using immoral practices of promoters. Sad, but true.
DOLLARS TURNING INTO PENNIES
just look at the chart.
SHARE PRICE GOING LOWER A loss for shareholders is the only thing that is happening. Just look at the pps a month ago and now.
DF AND COMPANIES WILL HAVE MORE SHARES TO SELL
and even more money to get from shareholders by dilutions and R/S.
True, thats pinky land, but it does, again just my observations, is more trying to get people to "hold on to your shares" and "buy the cheapies" and more deletions and editing of anything negative at the places observed.
Also, every stock buying has selling involved. If one wants to keep shares, keep them, if one wants to sell, sell them. I'll do both and it doesn't matter to me at what pps, only percentage of profit I can get, whether this company goes up or down. This theory of trying to get "cheapies" is just garbage in my view.
As long as the price goes up, a profit gets made, if it doesn't, it's a loss. Pretty simple, there are literally thousands of stocks in all price ranges, true traders don't waste their time but on attempting profit at any price.
But anyone has a right to speak what there opinion is of things and state the obvious and what is a matter of documented record and the ones who abuse their power and abuse that right in order to only manipulate for just their own financial gain on a regular basis knowing full well what they are doing are just low life in my book.
You mean the shareholders that don't want anything true or factual that might get them in even deeper losses. When I buy or invest, I look at more than the one who's doing the selling, but check all the other avenues for a unbiased picture. Not just listen to the salesman or one who needs it to go higher or sell for maybe at least break-even point.
It's easy to get nothing but positive features from those people.
The survey is opinion from everyone, not just owners, but prospective owners and ones who look at things from a balanced point of view. No requirement to be an owner in order to discuss a company, or piece of investment, in fact it's best to discuss with non owners of any investment whether that be a home one is buying or stock one buys.
Lots of traders and bag holders in that shareholder number, so not sure what the number that is touted regularly has as importance. Just another pinky stock and just another number to look at with all the other numbers.
Nor did they care to mention that the moderator and administrator is highly financially involved in the stock and can profit if they can convince some in buying their shares and/or moving this thing up and have a lot to lose if they don't convince. So they manipulate what is posted for their advantage and just delete anything thats not (but of course deny any of their actions, wink wink). Just my opinions and observations.