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This was obvious. We'll see 1900 next week. Both my postions stopped out at cost, no loss though.
The rebound will come, the market just needs to find it's footing.
pursuit of the giant clam,more on this topic later
Is that a figure of speech? LOL
Laugh if you want. I probably take 4 - 5 showers on a daily basis. Showering is a good way to ease tension and open the mind...and to stay clean.
I think about a lot of things in the shower, the market being one of them. Some of my best decisions were made in the shower.
And the organzied clean feeling you get when you get out and sit at your desk is very helpful.
I'm raising my stops to cost on MU and ORCL.
I want nothing to do with this market. We'll see 1900 next week.
No, lol. But I felt stupid about the positions I opened this morning. I realized we're in a failed rally and will proceed lower.
I just taking a shower and thinking about this market.
This what I came up with.
The Nasdaq has nothing to rally on, everyone is worried about interest rates. However, I have insisted that it will rally. It will, just not now.
I think the market needs to see a double bottom at 1900 (or perhaps lower) to rally again. It's just taking a breather from selling. Look what happened in Feb. & March, two failed rallies, but it came back in mid to late March with a significant rally. This was the start of a more volatile and unsure market than what was seen last fall. The market is still volatile, IMO, and will see several failed rallies, proceeded by large swings, like what we saw in mid to late March.
With that said, I'm staying in my MU and ORCL until the end of the day to see if the strength continues because I believe they're oversold. If the market begins to tank towards the afternoon, I'm out. I should have seen this coming. <g> I was impatient.
Anyone else think I'm on track? I hope my ideas help others get an idea of the behavior of this market.
I'm in MU @ 14.40 & ORCL @ 11.60
Stops at 14 on MU, and 11 on ORCL.
Looking for 15.5 on MU within a week, and 12.5 on ORCL within a week.
Will place stops at cost when 14.75 is reached on MU, and 12 on ORCL.
You're not the only one.
I read an article that said higher interest rates will be good because it will fuel higher earnings....but I couldn't then understand why people would be selling.
Eventually the resulting numbers will have to determine whether it is good or not for the market. The market is obviously going to be mixed for a while. War, the election, interest rates, etc. So many unsure things happening...anything could happen.
High oil prices seem to have had little effect on the stock market, atleast from what I could tell.
Earnings are too strong to justify such a large fall, but looking at the chart again, it seems 940 isn't that much of a fall from here. I suppose it's possible. But a minor economic setback would have to be required for something like that, JMHO.
While you're chugging down poison, why not throw a few chunks of metal in there too, huh? Good way to land in an early grave.
What possibly could drive the SPX to 940?
You can't believe everything the chart says and ignore economic numbers. The chart lives in sheltered world, immune to news and earnings. You have to combine both to accurately predict a stock, or the market in general.
Looks like just another off-topic clown.
Who is tate?
I think the last one is supposed to compare not his facial expression to a monkey, but his mental ability when making important decisions. I think they're trying to compare his signing of important documents to a chimp scribbling on a pad.
They say Kerry looks like a horse. On Yahoo News Message Boards (the psychiatric ward), they refer to him as "ol' horse face." If he is elected, I'm sure a website will be constructed to honor his horse-like looks.
Mr. Ed for President?
You're right, it does.
I was favoring ORCL over MU. MU just had an antitrust suit put against them from RMBS. But thanks. ;)
I think no matter what kind of market we're in, there are going to be rebounds from sell offs. Even in the worse of markets, there are rebounds, it's just that the sell offs are larger than the rebounds. Buy into the rebounds and sell into the selloffs.
Look what happened to today to the Nasdaq, it was down, but there was obviously strength towards the end. Why? Because the market is oversold. The buyers are coming into the market again. I think we're preparing for a small rebound. I'm preparing to go long with either MU or ORCL if the market continues to show strength within the next few trading days which would confirm a coming rebound. All I'm looking for is 5 - 10%.
Thanks Zeev. The daytrades obviously get more posts on the board, so I must have missed the short and intermediate term posts. I haven't started reading attentively until recently so I'll notice them next time.
That is true! Using multiple strategies probably lowers overall risk too.
"unfortunately"? When trading trending, channeling, or reversal stocks, I like to find companies that are financially strong or are not in the midst of bad news. This being the case, the odds of a certain support level being correct of much more likely.
If JimBobsOnlineStore.com (ficticious company) that has no profit and is trading at 30 times revenue, falls 20%, does that make it a good reversal buy? Certainly not. But if Citigroup falls 20%, you can bet there is going to be some sort of rebound, and probably back to previous levels (unless the entire market is heading in a massive downturn, like it was in April of 2000, but that's unlikely it would happen in today's market.)
That's why I wouldn't touch stocks like HAUP. The risk/reward is just not in a trader's favor.
I never understood why people trade these super volatile stocks that have made recent huge run ups like IPIX. They're extremely unpredictable. Seems to be just momo plays, aka, gambling.
Am I the only one who follows normal channeling stocks and reversals? For example, my most recent trade was a short on MU @ 17.60, I rode it down until it jumped and stopped out at 16.00. It proceeded to go down further to the low 13s, but I did not reestablish my short position. It's now at 14, and I'm probably going to go long.
Before, I shorted BEAS @ 13.70 in early March, it was at a very obvious double top, and rode it down until it stopped out at 12.50.
I only get in the market when the time is just right, never force myself to trade. At my rate, I probably only make 10 - 20 trades a year.
Does anyone else trade like I do? Or is everyone here just momo and daytraders?
Never laughed so hard in my entire life. Semi-OT
Dogbert on stock investing.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/040502/cx_dilbert_umedia/20040205&e=2&nci....
That doesn't mean we should continue to "accept" these inflated tech prices. Hopefully people get to choose which funds they put their money in. Only a fool would put their money in a tech fund.
Most tech stocks need to be cut in half, price wise. They are over priced.
Look at stocks like YHOO, trading at 15 times revenue. RHAT at 30 times revenue. INTC at 5 times revenue. BRCM at 6 times revenue. ORCL at 6 times revenue. ADBE at 7 times revenue. I could name countless others.
If you look at it from a value investor standpoint, tech prices are overly inflated. There is no reason why tech stocks should be valued any differently from normal stocks.
Anyone who buys a stock for the long term at these inflated revenue levels deserve to lose their money.
EBTBE looking ready for a jump again. I mentioned this one a while back ago and it ran up.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EBTBE.OB&t=1y
Read my post regarding that a few days ago, #msg-2936712
Obviously you need to open a history book and read about the Vietnam war. If you insist that Kerry is at fault for what he did over there, then you are sadly mistaken. He was only trying to preserve his own life. Instead you should blame it on the war hungry politicians who sent these young men over there without weighing the consequences.
You are just like all the other political extremists I talked about in this post, #msg-2935404 Any ground you take seize against the people you don't like, no matter how unreasonable it is, you will take it. If rumor went around that said John Kerry was plotting with aliens from outer space to take over the planet Earth and force us to bake a giant cheese cake so he could swim in...you'd believe it. Your vote is a danger to society.
I don't get it. Are you implying that Kerry was a drug addict? Becaue again, you'd be confused Kerry with Bush.
Well that is a good way of putting the whole situation and I'm not a Ph.d in anything, just a humble college dropout/stock trader, in my irrelevant opinion, I just think that's making something out of nothing. If you stare at the clouds long enough, you can eventually make out almost any shape. But your post was very thought provoking. Thank You.
Probably because people want to believe they are more than what meets the eye. We want, naturally, to believe that a part of us is somehow more than material. We don't want to believe that we are just a fragile structure of bones, organs, and muscles wrapped in skin When people look in the mirror, they don't want to believe that they're just a piece of flesh with an inevitable expiration date. One day you, I, and everyone else will cease to exist in any form whatsoever - however, some people out of either fear or arrogance, refuse to believe that. But as to why people believe it, well it boils down to human psychology. Fear and arrogance are the best explanations I can give.
Ignore the abstract interpretation Zeev proposed.
Question: Is it not silly to ignore modern science and say the incredibly vast and complex universe was created in the span of one week by the verbal commands of a bearded man living in the sky? Think about it.
Zeev, Instead of directly trying to decifer a silly story written thousands of years ago about something the authors knew nothing about, I instead think to myself, would God really place the fate of my after life on whether or not I believed in a very abstract interpretation of this silly story? If this God exists, I think he would not. Why would God eternally punish someone trying his/her best to utilize his/her's own common sense and reason? Why would God reward blind faith and ignorance? That alone is enough to invalidate all of the Bible's claims.
You could almost take any random story and make some analogy as to why this story coincides with modern science.
Just my opinion.
How is John Kerry a war criminal?
I wrote that myself you know.
.....lol.
Why I believe Kerry will win.
Disclosure: I support neither Kerry nor Bush.
In the past 40 years, voter turnout has fallen from about 65% to around 50%. Lack of interest in politics and political apathy has contributed to steadily decreasing voter turnout. This indicated that there is a base of people, many whom I would assume, have political opinions, but just lack the enthusiasm to march to the voting polls and cast their opinion.
If you have paid any attention to the media coverage, people have strong opinions about the Bush administration. Some love it, some hate it. But it has been clear that the momentum on the side of those wanting to oust him is greater than the momentum on the side of those who want to keep him. I personally have spoken with many who were stout Republicans, but refuse to vote for Bush. Whether it is because of the war in Iraq, increased deficit, loss of jobs, or the misconception that he caused the recent economic downfall, many have reason to go against him.
Bush may have a good number of supporters, but it has fallen apart and no one can doubt an unusually large group of anti-Bush voters are lining up to vote against him. Rarely do presidents build up this much momentum on their opposing sides.
So why don't the polls matter? Even if the slight majority of the nation supports Bush, he could still lose in a landslide because of the large amount of people who usually abstain from elections, but will come out of the woodwork to vote against him. The polls are deceiving. There are millions who plan to vote this coming election because Bush has rubbed many people the wrong way, far more so than most presidents in the past have to their opposing voters - no reasonable person can doubt that. The question we must ask, do Bush supporters really have as much momentum as the people who want him out of office? Think about this, when in history have people shouted slogans such as "ABB" meaning Anybody But Bush, at other presidents? Time magazine had a cover story a while back entitled "Love Him or Hate Him." It is clear he has built up many enemies with his sometimes radical policies.
Also, remember the 2000 elections, when the democrats lost the election by a hair? Remember the fury over the few hundred votes? No reasonable person can say that incident did not encourage people to truly believe that "their vote does count." Many people have opinions, but do not vote because they feel one drop in the ocean will not make a difference - the Florida election changed that perception for many. Truly there will be a large voter base, particularly democrats, that will believe in their hearts in the inherit worth of their individual vote.
It is also my own personal speculation that liberals are less likely to go out and vote than conservatives are. Many liberals are younger and not filled with as much appreciation for their voting rights than many older conservatives. So is there a massive harbor of liberals especially anxious to oust Bush from the Oval office? I'm speculating so.
So in retrospect, considering if the polls are 50/50 (hypothetically speaking), does that necessarily mean it will be a tie when it's all said and done? Or will the momentum caused by abnormally high anti-Bush sentiment and reminiscences of a 2000 election gone sour, drive as many anti-Bush citizens as possible to the polls and help the democrats prevail? Only time will tell.
To say that America is or was a "Christian Nation.," is to imply that the official and state sponsored religion was Christianity. That is not, never was, and never will be the case.
Only about 10% of the population goes to church, so I would assume this is a non religious nation. Many people claim to be Christians, but IMO, if you don't go to church, you don't really BELIEVE in Christianity. Therefore, 90% of the county is not religious.
I've posted it once, and I'll post it again.
“The government of the United States is not in any sense founded on the Christian religion.”
--John Adams, Treaty of Tripoli (June 7, 1797). Article 11
If you didn't get it, press F5 and reread the post again until it sinks in.
This pattern has performed extremely well in the past year, since I began developing it.
I will be writing more about it in the coming weeks and months.
I've been busy lately and haven't been able to update the board. But will do so soon.
Its time for humanity to get on with concentrating on this life instead of believing a load of old man-made bull about the next life.
That reminded me of one of my favorite Ayn Rand quotes:
"Ask youself whether the dream of heaven and greatness should be waiting for us in our graves--or whether it should be ours here and now and on this Earth."
--Ayn Rand
But I fear, as long as people are unable to comprehend their own non-existance (death), people will continue to believe in these silly myths in a last minute attempt to grasp onto a distant hope of an after-life. In medicine people take pills that numb the patient of pain, religion is the pill that numbs people of the fear of death....a fear the vast majority of people have at one time or another.
So are we going argue whether navels are round or oval next?
For a navel to be round, it would have to form a perfect and flawless circle, which the odds of that are astronomical. So it must be oval.
Number of angles that can sit on a pin head?
Invalid question because angels are either non-existant, unproven, or undiscovered, so the area of space which they'd take up when sitting is impossible to determine.
Or if the moon is really made of cheese?
The moon is not made of cheese. Being that the moon has existed for billions of years, the cheese would have long ago molded over and probably broken apart and floated off into space and perhaps even contaminated the Earth with dangerous mold and killed off all species. And space travel has proven the moon is made of several types of rock mixed in with rock material that has broken off when meteors struck the lunar surface.
So many things to argue about. And so little time.
That's why I'm up so early. <g>
“The government of the United States is not in any sense founded on the Christian religion.”
--John Adams, Treaty of Tripoli (June 7, 1797). Article 11
How much more blunt could he possibly get? How on Earth could you possibly argue with that?
Don't confuse freedom of religion, with freedom from religion.
I hope you're not implying that it's unAmerican to be an atheist - because that's total nonsense.
Clearly if you study the histories of the founding fathers, you will see that they were not Christians. That is not an opinion, it is a fact.