Why I believe Kerry will win.
Disclosure: I support neither Kerry nor Bush.
In the past 40 years, voter turnout has fallen from about 65% to around 50%. Lack of interest in politics and political apathy has contributed to steadily decreasing voter turnout. This indicated that there is a base of people, many whom I would assume, have political opinions, but just lack the enthusiasm to march to the voting polls and cast their opinion.
If you have paid any attention to the media coverage, people have strong opinions about the Bush administration. Some love it, some hate it. But it has been clear that the momentum on the side of those wanting to oust him is greater than the momentum on the side of those who want to keep him. I personally have spoken with many who were stout Republicans, but refuse to vote for Bush. Whether it is because of the war in Iraq, increased deficit, loss of jobs, or the misconception that he caused the recent economic downfall, many have reason to go against him.
Bush may have a good number of supporters, but it has fallen apart and no one can doubt an unusually large group of anti-Bush voters are lining up to vote against him. Rarely do presidents build up this much momentum on their opposing sides.
So why don't the polls matter? Even if the slight majority of the nation supports Bush, he could still lose in a landslide because of the large amount of people who usually abstain from elections, but will come out of the woodwork to vote against him. The polls are deceiving. There are millions who plan to vote this coming election because Bush has rubbed many people the wrong way, far more so than most presidents in the past have to their opposing voters - no reasonable person can doubt that. The question we must ask, do Bush supporters really have as much momentum as the people who want him out of office? Think about this, when in history have people shouted slogans such as "ABB" meaning Anybody But Bush, at other presidents? Time magazine had a cover story a while back entitled "Love Him or Hate Him." It is clear he has built up many enemies with his sometimes radical policies.
Also, remember the 2000 elections, when the democrats lost the election by a hair? Remember the fury over the few hundred votes? No reasonable person can say that incident did not encourage people to truly believe that "their vote does count." Many people have opinions, but do not vote because they feel one drop in the ocean will not make a difference - the Florida election changed that perception for many. Truly there will be a large voter base, particularly democrats, that will believe in their hearts in the inherit worth of their individual vote.
It is also my own personal speculation that liberals are less likely to go out and vote than conservatives are. Many liberals are younger and not filled with as much appreciation for their voting rights than many older conservatives. So is there a massive harbor of liberals especially anxious to oust Bush from the Oval office? I'm speculating so.
So in retrospect, considering if the polls are 50/50 (hypothetically speaking), does that necessarily mean it will be a tie when it's all said and done? Or will the momentum caused by abnormally high anti-Bush sentiment and reminiscences of a 2000 election gone sour, drive as many anti-Bush citizens as possible to the polls and help the democrats prevail? Only time will tell.
AI
