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Pharmakon...
So they had 200 million they owed less then 100 million to Pharmakon.
So pay off Pharmakon... then borrow money after that.
No offense taken Larry I respect you immensely you are one of the poster's here I am most eager to read.
I did not think to mention the ITC case but I think that was a blunder albeit far more forgivable then two recent unforgivable blunders.
1) The massive and poorly timed totally unnecessary dilution financing.
The only way this dilution was necessary is if the company suspects the FDA is going to f*** them over... I agree this is unlikely but the possibility has the market spooked.
The alternative is that JT has poor judgement... and that is what has me spooked.
2) JT's statement that he does not intend to pursue DTC marketing even after the label until yet ANOTHER delay waiting for this OPDP to okay everything Amarin marketing wants to do. Did the FDA win the 1st amendment case or did we? Sure seems like they won the way AMRN is acting. We should use our rights under the 1st Amendment to the fullest to go DTC the second we get the label. If the FDA wants to lose another court case (and they will lose) fine.
I think both blunders stem from JT's overcautious overconservative bean counter mentality. JT was fine for the years Reduce-It was running you wanted someone who wasn't going to do anything crazy... but overcaution is not good right now and I have to wonder what else JT is going to screw up.
GIA would be just fine... if JT weren't an incompetent stupid cowardly stammering bean counter. Unfortunately he is. I now support a buyout by any publically traded company because at least it would get rid of JT.
They don't have to wait for OPDP per their court ruling once they get the label, anything on the label is not misleading. It only makes sense to wait for the label because not waiting for the label might make the FDA vindictive... once we have it though we should go to DTC because the Court ruling does NOT only apply to doctors. The text of the 1st amendment does not mention doctors.
John Thero has f**ked up the financing by massively diluting instead of borrowing (and this is not the 1st time), f**ked up promoting the drug by not aggressively exploiting his rights under his 1st amendment court ruling win, plans to continue f**king up by not going direct to consumer after the label instead he plans to waste time and money with sales reps. What else is he going to f**k up?
We have a great product but we're stuck with this cowardly stammering bean counter moron at the helm. Is there any plausible way we can at least try to force his removal as CEO?
JT's skittishness is starting to be a huge problems. JT's skittishness caused this dilution.
They did not even need to wait for the label to do DTC ads per the court ruling they only needed the Reduce-IT results, now I can sort of see waiting for the label but the second they get the label they should go 1st amendment.
We'd be much better off with someone other then JT...
I believe the drug works and am as much a bull on Vascepa as JL and Larrybirdlegend.
I just don't have quite the confidence in management's judgement that they do. This dilution was a stupid idea... it might have been okay if cutting Goldman in meant that the Goldman mafia meant no more bear raids, no more options pinning the stock down etc.
But apparently from today this is not the case. JT and Brian Kalb should be replaced with competent people.
What a great f***ing idea diluting the stock so much before the label expansion date.
I think the market lacks confidence in a management that shows no insider buying and dilutes immediately whenever they catch a strong uptrend even when they don't need to. JT should have either waited for a share price of 30 or above or borrowed money. JT's dilution before the event revived fears of an FDA f***over ala the adcom.
1. It only bears relevance that in modern times people who hear from salesmen too much just don't want to talk to them.
2 & 3... I'm not saying no reps but I suspect the number they would need is very small... if AMRN has a data model on this where more reps are shown to be effective I'd like them to make it public. I suspect if such a thing exists its about as accurate as one of those "climate model" that said that the polar caps were supposed to melt by now (and of course they keep pushing the date back)...
Most doctors are in a few urban centers... after say 100 reps I think you would start to hit diminishing returns.
Well even if you think they are right about drug reps (I strongly agree with JL, I worked in an engineering office and we got 10 calls a day from people trying to sell us stuff, my boss eventually gave standing orders that other then a few approved names he "wasn't there" for anyone. I imagine medical offices aren't all that different) the timing sucked and the company needs to be crystal clear about what they plan to do with the money.
The market hates uncertainty and they created a ton of it, vague plans don't dispel the uncertainty and the only thing they aren't being vague about is they are hiring more reps... the market doesn't seem to think that more reps is a good plan.
No it doesn't. He hasn't had to do ANYTHING except complete the reduce-it study.
When he actually does something its inevitably a stupid cowardly decision that hurts shareholders. Problem is we as minority shareholders can't remove him. I wish there was some way to convince the Baker Brothers to remove him.
We have probably the best drug in history but the problem is this guy is probably going to keep f***ing up. I was firmly in the GIA camp, now I want him to sell it because I want the drug VASCEPA and JT to be seperate.
At the risk of going off topic. Being "conservative" doesn't get you anywhere all it does is cause you to lose slow... between the 1950s and Trump the Republican party was conservative. And all they did was lose... it saved the country when the political right was taken over by a man who may have been many things... but definitely not a conservative.
DTC would be a good use for the money.
But they are also doubling their sales force which isn't a good use for the money and will probably cost them more then DTC advertising.
Also why dilute for the money when they could have borrowed the money?
Goldman Sachs couldn't do it without our idiot bean counter CEO going along with it.
The stock can't get any momentum because he can't promote it (Ben Stein in Ferris Bueller's day off is a better speaker then Thero) and the second it gets any momentum he dilutes it... and its no wonder the insiders constantly dump everything.
I used to be pro GIA but after this I hope they sell the company, Thero obviously doesn't know what he is doing or he would have borrowed the money and not spent another dime on sales reps.
Why didn't they borrow the money? Yes they would need to payoff what is left of the Pharmakon "loan" first but do that and then borrow.
That is what I don't understand... and if they really did this principally to hire sales reps (who are not cost effective) its beyond incompetent and Thero and the CFO should be fired.
Doubling the number of sales reps is a huge waste of money.
They should have used what money they had in the bank to pay off whats left of the Pharmakon "loan", not increased the number of sales reps, and borrowed what they needed to do all the rest.
Sales reps are not cost effective. Hiring more of them is just pissing away money.
DTC is cost effective but they cannot yet do DTC and when they are in a position to do it their price would no doubt be higher.
Would the baker Brothers have to okay this?
This is an outrageous dilution they do not need the money and label expansion is within months which should somewhat boost their share price. The only thing they would "need" the money for now
1) Hiring more sales reps which isn't cost effective, but of course Thero wouldn't understand a good marketing strategy since he can't even speak without putting everyone listening to sleep.
2) Giving upper management more money at our expense.
Thero and Kalb should absolutely lose their jobs for this. Vascepa should be a gold mine but this decision makes me think the management is just going to f*** it up. For what its worth I emailed IR saying the shelf should be canceled, that they do not need the money, and that sales reps are a stupid waste of money. It might not be worth much but I suggest you all do the same.
I think a lot of us think we are smart because we read JL's advice and made a lot of money following his advice. Indeed we were smart enough to follow it and certainly we deserve some credit for that.
But to think this makes us brilliant investing geniuses might be letting our success (that we owe to following someone else) go to our heads. Indeed we are probably not going to be geniuses if we are going AGAINST JL's advice...
If this is the case why in your view does the street have such a lowball view of peak sales on such a huge indication with no (or at least very little) side effects?
The medscape short reports against AMRN are just recycled half truths, distortions and whole lies. They achieved their purpose in dropping the stock somewhat but I would not describe their author whoever he is, and who almost certainly acted at the behest of others, as a genius.
IF it is indeed Pyrrhonian who is indeed involved in these phony short "reports" (FUD propaganda) that doesn't prove he is "complex" it just proves (just about) he is a shill one who works for others... if there are any complex masterminds involved in this FUD business they would not be Pyrrhonian himself but Pyrrhonian's unseen masters.
Why would someone who is theoretically a long term investor of this stock have any sympathy for someone who is a paid liar against our interests?
Why Drug Reps probably won't be cost effective (links with recent data)
https://www.bluenovius.com/healthcare-marketing/pharma-sales-reps-struggling/
Doctors apparently get 2800 requests to see them a year on average, most refuse to see most or nearly all of them and the average time they will see them if they do is about two minutes. According to JL they are very limited as to what "incentives" they can give to doctors anymore. Doctors are overloaded with both paperwork and sales calls, drug reps will in most cases be treated as "spammers".
https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/strategy/sales-reps-may-be-wearing-out-their-welcome-operating-room (deals with device reps but very similar issues)
AMRN's marketing money would be better spent on direct to consumer marketing once they get the label. Normally all those drug commercials have a list of horrible side effects... we shouldn't have that problem.
People will "ask their doctor about Vascepa".
Maybe there is a better way to do it but if you want to drive sales FAST you need to make doctors start prescribing Vascepa DEFENSIVELY.
I think my thoughts on this (and maybe the company can't be seen to be doing it sure... but there has to be ways for them to get the word out without being directly associated with it) aren't as absurd as the constant buyout predictions or people wanting us diluted further down to hire even more useless drug reps.
Drug reps are the company thinking someone will give it to them, going to the lawyers is the company realizing that you have to take it.
I believe that malpractice suits revolve around so called standard of care.
We have it for most diabetics on statins already, wait for the label sure but then AMRN should immediately start informally educating lawyers that cases of doctors who aren't prescribing should be slam dunks. That will get the script numbers up real quick we won't have to wait for 2023 for peak sales.
Defensive medicine is a thing.
Of course AMRN wouldn't be threatening them or even saying lawyers should sue them it'd be more like... you know it would an open and shut malpractice lawsuit to sue doctors who didn't use Vascepa and had their patients die prevently of heart disease.
What if drug reps are mostly just a waste of money as JL says... I certainly don't want another dilution so we can hire more useless drug reps.
AMRN needs to start informal discussions with some malpractice lawyers about suing doctors who don't put their statin patients on VASCEPA for malpractice, maybe they should wait until after the label expansion but after that it should be done. If they aren't convinced by the data and the label, let them be convinced that failure to prescribe it will get them sued.
I wish these computer trading programs that traded all stocks in response to the major indexes and the IBB didn't exist.
California can't do it alone and this is essentially saying California is going to partner with part of California. The Blue States can't combine together to do it because forbidden by the Constitution by doing it without Congressional consent (which they won't get).
So I don't think there is much real risk here until 2025 unless the country does something IMMENSELY stupid in 2020 (which I suppose is possible but historically unlikely if the economy holds up).
And besides AMRN is a lower margin higher volume drug so we need to worry about this less. The problem is we are trading with the index... which is selling off for some unknown reason which probably has little to do with this.
I wonder what the real reason is...
I don't think people on wall street are actually worried about something that has no chance to become policy before January 20, 2025. Its too bad AMRN is traded away with the index...
Pfizer reps would have myriad other products to sell. They'd have more access to doctors but low concentration on Vascepa and would mostly be concentrating on stuff the doctor may want to buy.
https://www.pfizer.com/products-list
Amarin is not likely going to sell the company for anything Pfizer would be willing (or even able) to pay not after the standard of care finding. Only JL, Larrybirdlegend and Biobill really seem to be aware of the potential #s this could hit down the line...
The website for Kowa (of America) lists TWO drugs its not like they were Pfizer reps with thousands of products to sell. The drug reps for Kowa certainly had enough time to mention Vascepa in any interview they managed to gain with a physician. I suspect that JL is right that drug reps generally lack cost effectivenesses especially since they can't (legally) bribe doctors anymore.
https://www.kowapharma.com/products/
I said he would probably have to fire the whole board.
Talking about firing Powell isn't bearish and firing Powell wouldn't be bearish (it would be bad for the dollar but good for stocks) though honestly to change policy he might have to fire the whole Fed board. Powell raising interest rates is bearish and getting rid of Powell would be bullish for stocks. Investors in stocks want low interest rates they don't care about fed independence or a strong dollar quite the contrary.
The government shutdown if it lasts long (and it might this time) could be bearish for biotech in general and AMRN in particular in that apparently the FDA is saying they can't accept any NEW applications that require fees from 2019 on for the duration of the shutdown.
I think its the pre-earnings "quiet period".
I wish "quiet periods" did not exists for reasons that should be obvious but I think legally they can't say anything now.
Tariffs are taxes and taxes are negative for the economy but tariffs are probably less negative for the economy then corporate income taxes.
The tax cut and jobs act did not spike up the deficit (at least not yet) as revenue has been at record levels consistently since it passed, the omnibus spending bill of March 2018 spiked the deficit.
AMRN's long term revenue is probably fine regardless of overall economic trends as ultimately a drug with such impressive numbers in averting life saving conditions SHOULD become standard of care (though I thought the results would "go viral" very quickly and that may not be the case) and I'm not sure how the tax laws will effect an Irish company that manufacturers its drug in the United States. The short term stock price could go either way, we're either very near the end of correction (I think most likely) or just part of the way in a bear market (not as likely but possible).
If it is the beginning of a true bear market and there are no good catalyst soon it will go down further...
Does anyone know the actual "max pain" price for next weeks option expiration? A free website (http://maximum-pain.com/options/max-pain/) seems to list it at 22 dollars a share but I would think if that is the real number the stock would be higher by now.
And what is wrong with doing an end-run around it if they can actually pull it off?
The FDA has no power over individual investors making websites telling truthful and proven information and if AMRN needs the web admin to stop he'll get a cease and desist letter and then he can stop.
AMRN management is afraid of angering the FDA despite the fact that they'd almost certainly win in court, but we don't have to be (probably afraid the FDA can retaliate in other ways). If anything the FDA can beg AMRN to stop us and AMRN can say okay but we want expedited review.
North what program do you use that gives you all this information (re the BATs market maker)?