is...(lightning strikes only once unless you remain standing where you shouldn’t be.)
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Now there is a thought. Yes Lightwave surely has those who do not wish to see them succeed.
But it is hard to resist this compelling story.
The brick wall is in front of us and demand will be overwhelming from new applications such as AI among many others.
L_R
And I will suggest that it is in fact the T-1’s and scalers that are insisting that foundries work with Lightwave.
I don’t believe for one minute that the pull is coming from Lightwave to the foundries but clients to the foundries.
Just my take.
L_R
Yes and as I recall the last shock value was at the ASM after which the SP ran from $4.00 to $9.00. You can bet this is going to happen again.
There is a poster here that lost heavily from that last run up. No names given except we all know who that is.
L_R
Now that has merit.
There is also a fair bit of push and pull by large data centres.
The only explanation I have for 7 foundries wanting to develop PDK’s is because the potential demand and pull from T-1’s and 2’s and from data centers.
The foundries don’t just take anybody for the development of PDK’s. They don’t have space and time to waste on nobodies.
No this thing is for real and foundries smell the margins and revenues coming from the photonics industry and no foundry wants to be left behind.
That’s my take for now
L_R
Run TP Run.
L_R
Expectations:
I have no expectations that the robust data sets coming out will have any effect on the share price nor do I expect a press release to follow immediately after.
But I do expect that those data sets will have their impact upon data centers and clients that are waiting for these data sets. Results will get the ball rolling behind the scenes with progress on negotiations continuing.
I have no expectations of signed contracts in October. They will come when they come.
The new lab/work space is supportive to the developing commercialization situation. No one sets up new space like this without serious expectations of signed contracts or licence transfers.
L_R
Run TP Run
Run TP Run
You are pretending that you know what is meant by chip yield which is what "extremely high yields in > 1000 poled devices" is all about and you have decided to give it a new definition "yields of another sort" No links no nothing but I provide the links below. .
Here..... go learn what yield at a foundry is all about.:
https://www.informit.com/articles/article.aspx?p=31338&seqNum=4
https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/yield
https://www.valin.com/resources/blog/wafer-yield-semiconductor-industry#:~:text=In%20the%20semiconductor%20industry%2C%20yield,sunk%20cost%20for%20these%20fabs.
All of these talk about the end product. The successful wafer yield percentage.
Lightwave does not obtain chip yields through PVT trials. Only foundries do.
Run TP run
L_R
TP said:
“Extremely high yields in >1000 poles devices” cannot be done anywhere but in a foundry.”
I could care less about the past. No way can you get extremely high yields > 1000 poles devices in any place but a foundry. Ridiculous to assume otherwise. That language is never used in a lab. This is just a stupid suggestion. Big time stupid.
First mention Sept 2022.meaning PDK’s were working in Sept 2022 and investors informed that 2 foundries had operational PDK’s on Dec 2022.
I am fairly confident we have 4 at least now and the robust data sets will confirm those foundry Modulators are indeed extremely reliable and stable and small and powerful. Think if it…..120 modulators could be placed in a transceiver.
Confirmed
L_R
Done before in what?
That is just obfuscating the matter.
ML indicated “they {the foundries} are doing the fabrication not us but what I can say is that the chips that we are getting back from the foundries are performing really well”. Sorry the only fabrication being done is at foundries.
This can be heard in the 5th Question in the ASM at the 50 second mark.
L_R
Hope and trust in pre- revenue companies is required by investors who choose such equities.
L_R
NO.
“Extremely high yields in > 1000 poled devices” is foundry language indicated in the PVT stage.
I provided links and sources that shows this expression is foundry language from the PVT stage in manufacturing. Further Lebby indicated they were receiving modulators back from the foundries which only occurs in the PVT stage.
I can’t educate you any further on foundry procedures unless you take the steps to learn this stuff on your own. Failure to do so would indicated wanton deliberate ignorance in your part IMO
L_R
Of course not.
Chew on this …..The presentation last Sept on p 25 indicated that they had “extremely high yields on > 1000 poked devices” which meant operational PDK’s at a foundry BUT we did not obtain the information from Lebby that 2 foundries had operational PDK’s until the last week of December.
Remember that?
Now investors would have liked to have had that information much earlier in the fall and no one realized what the statement in quotes (above) meant. Perhaps Management could have done better in communicating?
But what this shows is that Lightwave was ahead of the game and investors didn’t know that until 3 months later even though a very large indicator in the presentation suggested PDK’s were operational.
Now remember that a commercial agreement was very close to signing before the ASM but investors did not know that until the day of the ASM. Lebby was last minute again.
Well I am suggesting that perhaps commercial agreements are likely piling up right now and quite far along but just waiting for those robust data sets they have been asking for. These agreements may just need signatures. Of course I am guessing on this. We are not going to know until last minute perhaps even though they are quite far along in negotiations.
Of course this is all inference but there is a pattern of facts behind us that indicate that what I suggest is clearly possible.
L_R
I put this question out to TP. He didn't answer. I asked twice. Still No answer
Does a fund HAVE to buy shares in a company just because they have joined an INDEX?
Let's say yes.... its part of the process.
But then we asked. Does a fund HAVE to add to their positions afterwards?
These funds are ADDING shares of Lightwave. Is this a REQUIREMENT?
Are they OBLIGATED to do so? Or is adding shares completely and only the result of computer algorithms?
Still no answer from TP.
L_R
Dice:
We know for sure there are 2 foundries that have PDK's working with modulators coming back from these foundries.
ML indicated they were receiving modulators from "foundries" at the ASM and they were looking very good. (3'rd question asked in the ASM meeting 2023).
Further he indicated they had "extremely high yields on > 1000 poled devices" p. 25 of last September's presentation. Nobody parsed this statement at the time but this is a clear and certain proof of PVT operations at foundries.
Are there more foundries with operational PDK's? We are not going to get the answer to this question. He was shooting for 7.
What is the probability that there are now somewhere between 3-7 foundries with operational PDK's? Given the fact that a year has gone by (when the first foundry achieved success ie. last September) the probability is fairly high that we could have 4 foundries now with operational PDK's. This is a guess but quite a reasonable guess IMO based upon "lead up facts" supporting this inference.. I accept the fact that foundries are super secretive about what they are doing in-house so I would say the foundries control what Lightwave is able to reveal.
Now as to these other goals....... We have to wait Until Dec 31st before we can conclude anything about this year's goals being met or not. Are there other agreements in the work. Lebby has indicated that there are. Likely these are conditional upon the data sets about to be revealed. I believe this is a reasonable assumption.
Best to you,
L_R
Xena:
Don't confuse him with two charts. It is unchartered waters for him.
Overlaying the price chart to the institutional positions taken presents too much data to take in.
L_R
Lewrock:
Gotcha.
L_R
Well TP answer the question.
AND More specifically.......
Are Vanguard and Blackrock obligated to INCREASE their positions in Lightwave?
Sounds like a stupid thing to do if they HAVE to take a position and then after HAVE to increase their positions going forward.
But once again I am genuinely disinterested in whether they have actively operated funds or passive.
Could care less.
L_R
I would be concerned if I had 10 million on paper and now have 3 million.
I am sure that would bother people in this position.
L_R
TP:
I care less about Vanguard and Blackrock. I don't think I have ever brought it up or responded.
Tell me. Are they obligated to take ANY position in Lightwave?
Sounds stupid if the HAVE to.
I have no interest in such things.
L_R
Well will you look at that:
I have never seen such clarity expressed in such wonderfully simplistic form on a message board ever. We need to hear less of you like this more often.
L_R
The robust data sets were required to get the OLED technology accepted by the industry and once it was delivered the industry moved in that direction until ubiquity was realized.
ML is doing it again. It worked for the OLED polymer industry. The same is being done with the polymer modulator/ transceiver market for starters.
The data sets are required. Of course each company utilizing polymers on their exotic materials will need to complete data sets to prove to the industry that their exotic materials are good to go.
We are on the front end of an incredible disruptive technology that will change the world.
That is my belief based upon the lead up “facts” that have been provided for us. But I will wait just a little longer for that data to come in before I place my final stamp upon this belief.
L_R
TP:
Yes that would be nice wouldn’t it?
L_R
TP:
1.5 goals missed (maybe). For me only 1 important goal missed.
"we don't know what goals he missed for sure because he did not make himself accountable to those goals". [sic] approximately your words.
All we need to know. These are your words. It boils down to inferences that you make.
Be accountable for your words. Admit that you said "we don't know for sure". = inference.
L_R
Maybe I’ll give you that…… 1/2 of a goal completed. Foundry but no name of foundry.
How to you go from that to missed all but 2 goals? Especially after you said “we don’t know since he didn’t make himself accountable”.
Explain the math.
L_R
TP: Just sad,, very sad
EXACTLY.
I rest my case.
L_R
TP:
So sorry TP ........ you in fact did not provide lead up facts for your concluding argument for the original discussion and admitted it right here:
TP:
It is simple to understand because you wrote it.
L_R
TP:
You should ignore the statement that I quote because it is senseless.
.
We quote it because it is senseless.
This is your justification for posting things that you believe might be true even though you may not know it is true.
All this stuff you pretend is evidence is often senseless speculation …….:::: stuff you believe might be true even though you don’t know it is true.
Here is your quote:
Ba ha
L_R
TP:
Oops my bad. Apologies.
I take the quote away.
[sic] {Took me a long time to figure it out or something like that.}
Commentary:
[I know [sic] is used for spelling errors but I am using it for inexact quotations that are close to the original idea. ]
Nope. I don’t recall at anytime saying or indicating how many foundries I thought had operational PDK’s.
If I did you are welcome to find it and quote. Remember sarcasm doesn’t count.
Money aside I am really concerned about you TP,
Yours truly,
(Unconditional love and all that stuff).
“I can believe something is true even if I don’t know it is true” …… exact quotes don’t count.
[most famous saying ever posted on a message board ever]
L_R
Lewrock:
Yes you are right. Tomorrow somebody could make their own polymer , skirt around 70 patents that Lightwave has, develop PDK’s with 7 foundries, test the modulators t for 9000 hours, have T-1’s testing them for real operational situations. I thin AI might even find a way to do it all yesterday. Unbelievable things can happen now that AI is out of the bag.
I quote the most famous saying that has ever been posted on a message board.
“we can believe something is true even if we don’t know it is true”.
L_R