I was going to procrastinate, but decided to put it off.
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If Greece gets their act together for tomorrow, the markets will rocket up, should be good for AAA.
If they dilly dally around again, we will see a sell-off.
And how would you know news is coming out that will drive it to 2 bucks???
If this gets a reverse split, the stock will tank. I can not remember ever seeing a stock move up after a reverse split, usually they go down.
"We have been down long enough" ALL mining stocks have been down, no one is playing games, the fact is the markets suck right now. Almost every good story is in the crapper.
I was an insurance damage appraiser for 21 years, and I seen thousands of animal impacts. All sorts of animals.
Seen cars where people were killed from the animals coming through the windshield.
Had a friend just a couple a months ago, total off her van and was injured when a buck went through her windshield.
Were we live its over populated with deer. I had one client in 1998, with 2 separate deer impacts in a 24 hour period with the same car.
In the 90's, one girl lucky to be alive was driving a Dodge sports car, and hit a moose, it slid over the hood, over the windshield and up in the air, only had to change the hood on the car. The windshield defected it. On that model the w/s has a good slant to it and deflected the moose instead of taking all the impact. She most likely would have died if it was another model of car that did not have such an aerodynamic windshield.
I hatted appraising animal hits, they were usually messy. When a deer/moose/elk, etc, is hit, you literately knock the crap out of it, and the car is covered in it.
Well it's not a joke, but a funny video of the scenes of "Milton", one of the workers at the company, from the movie Office Space, made around 11 years ago, made cult classic status.
The movie is about a software company that is fixing the Y2K issue, the workers are so upset with the downsizing with the company, they plot a plan to rip off the company with a virus that will steal money and put it into a secret account they created.
Its a very funny move, one of the funniest characters in there is this poor guy, Milton:
http://www.screencast.com/t/T2Yqd2mJsfF
They even made a toy of him:
These types of stocks are often traded. People have a core position and have a bunch of trading shares. If you are good, you can trade the stock, and make enough money that you are playing with free shares. Eliminating your risk for loosing money.
This is done with many juniors.
There are a couple of good trading boards on SI. They move quick. Only Canaidan juniors are traded there.
Some of them are in AAA as well.
Not seeing any recent selling here:
http://canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=aaa
But they have a completed feasibility study, not to mention limestone and phosphate on their land as a bonus.
Thats the company that I compare AAA too. Not project comparison, you can't compare that, the FS is what I refer to. Once they had their FS completed the stock went from 2 bucks to almost 12.00.
AAA needs to get the feasibility done, or a take out offer for the stock to take off. I hope it's a take out offer, cause we will be waiting a long time for the FS to be completed.
In my opinion, it's a bit misleading. One potash company listed in there has hardly any shares out compared to AAA.
All it would have to do is do a financing for 10 million shares, say for 6 bucks, less than what it's trading at, and it would have the most money in the bank compared to the others, and still have only a fraction of the outstanding shares of what AAA has.
Good article though, and good for AAA.
IMO the only thing that will move this stock is the feasibility study. That was the same with another potash stock I was in, waiting for the FS the stock drifted lower and lower, once released it went ballistic.
Hard Drive - Data Loss Obsession ?
Thats what I am hoping for.
The other potash stock I was in rocketed up to around 12 dollars from around 2-3.00 after the FS was released. So using that as a comparison.
Also the " Allana Potash acquires Dallol project" did nothing for the share price.
Ouch, thats a long time to complete the feasibility study.
Once we are out of the summer, and back into fall when everyone's back to work, we may see the stock up. Been a bad summer for stocks.
Sell in May would have worked out perfect for AAA. It hit 1.92 on May 24th.
Past experience with a potash company and feasibility study, takes 4-6 months. So that could take us into Feb 2012 with AAA, if it took 6 months and they started the study Sept 1.
They said they would be drilling 200 meters per hole in this area, the other drill plan is I believe 100 meters per hole. But that program is a ways down the road I believe.
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A typical day at work, on my computers:
10 bucks, not without a completed feasibility study. When will that be done? From my experience with another potash stock the study took over 6 months to complete. Still don't think we will hit 10 bucks on a competed study.
Also, I thought I heard Farhad say production in or by the end of 2014?
Correct me if I am wrong.
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Well that would be good. Summer sucks for most stocks, would be nice to have some unexpected good news.
Feasibility studies are a long process, usually 4-6 months or more, and lots of cash. Be patient, this winter *should* reward shareholders.
For comparison only: Another potash stock I followed did almost the same thing, after the new 43-101 was released it did nothing, then slowly trended down for months. It did not move up until just before the feasibility study was released. Once the study was released the stock went up, WAY UP.
Please follow the below link to see photos from Ethiopian Potash's camp and operations.
http://ethiopianpotash.com/camp.htm
Thats it, thank you!!!
Actually I thought he was on today?
Does anyone have a link to Farhad on BNN today?
I don't have any idea, it would be wise to be in both, thats my thinking, both have big upside.
If there are no land acquisitions for AAA, the stock won't do much. I don't expect the feasibility study till around Dec and maybe Jan 2012.
Another potash stock I followed took them 7 months for a feasibility study to be completed.
So FED may be the one to hold if thats the case.
On Silicon Investor, I believe most, here I have no idea. FED has a lot of upside once samples come in, we should be trading where AAA was during that process. I would like to see 1.50 in a month or two.
Production? That is going to be HUGE amounts of money, more than they have in the bank.
I think they will want more land, it will make them a big player in the region.
Wellington West - Allana coverage
Allana Potash (AAA-V, Last Price: $1.70, Buy, Target Price: $2.50) - The Company’s updated NI 43-101 report confirmed a material increase in the resource estimate across four potash members and at relatively attractive grades: the new resource is ~1.27 bn tonnes M&I + Inferred, grading ~20% KCl, which is up from the prior est of ~105mm tonnes, grading ~21% KCl. More importantly, the sylvinite member, which is the shallowest potash seam and the one most likely to be mined, is estimated to contain 206mm tonnes of M&I + Inferred potash grading ~30% KCl, which we estimate is sufficient to support a 1 mm tonne potash operation for at least 15 yrs. While a lot more work still needs to be done, 555mm tonnes of kainitite suggests AAA could produce SOP. A BFS on MOP economics + SOP Scoping Study are expected within 6-9months; positive results could provide the next up-legs for AAA shares. Look for Allana to make acquisitions in the near future as they prove the resource is continuous across the basin- one target to the north would be FED.
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The BFS is due 6-9 months according to this coverage, the other potash stock that went ballistic took 7 months for the feasibility study, so this time frame looks correct.
Wellington West makes note of FED in recent Allana coverage
Allana Potash (AAA-V, Last Price: $1.70, Buy, Target Price: $2.50) - The Company’s updated NI 43-101 report confirmed a material increase in the resource estimate across four potash members and at relatively attractive grades: the new resource is ~1.27 bn tonnes M&I + Inferred, grading ~20% KCl, which is up from the prior est of ~105mm tonnes, grading ~21% KCl. More importantly, the sylvinite member, which is the shallowest potash seam and the one most likely to be mined, is estimated to contain 206mm tonnes of M&I + Inferred potash grading ~30% KCl, which we estimate is sufficient to support a 1 mm tonne potash operation for at least 15 yrs. While a lot more work still needs to be done, 555mm tonnes of kainitite suggests AAA could produce SOP. A BFS on MOP economics + SOP Scoping Study are expected within 6-9months; positive results could provide the next up-legs for AAA shares. Look for Allana to make acquisitions in the near future as they prove the resource is continuous across the basin- one target to the north would be FED.
Really good conference call.
Email I just received from Farhad:
The resource went up 12 times. We did not have measured and indicated. Now we have 673 million tonnes of measure and indicated category with pure KCl of 126 million tonnes. Additional 596 million tonnes of inferred on top of it with another 119 million tonnes of in situ KCl.
We had only 105 million tonnes of inferred before. So no matter how you look at it, it is a fantastic result and we are moving full speed ahead with our development.
We will start BFS this summer.
Cheers,
Farhad
No you are wrong, it's been buy on rumor, sell on news, call some stock brokers and they will tell you the same thing I just did.
One last comparison with another potash stock last and this year:
When the new 43-101 came out, little excitement, the stock drifted down, and stayed there for some time, then in mid Aug 2010 and Sept 2010 getting close to the feasibility study, it started to perk up and once the study was released, it went ballistic.
So in my opinion we may see similar movements with AAA.
It's buy the rumor, sell the news.
Have you seen this? Very inspiring story. You have to hear this guy sing.
http://blog.unicus.com/2011/06/14/sung-bong-choi/