Wellington West - Allana coverage
Allana Potash (AAA-V, Last Price: $1.70, Buy, Target Price: $2.50) - The Company’s updated NI 43-101 report confirmed a material increase in the resource estimate across four potash members and at relatively attractive grades: the new resource is ~1.27 bn tonnes M&I + Inferred, grading ~20% KCl, which is up from the prior est of ~105mm tonnes, grading ~21% KCl. More importantly, the sylvinite member, which is the shallowest potash seam and the one most likely to be mined, is estimated to contain 206mm tonnes of M&I + Inferred potash grading ~30% KCl, which we estimate is sufficient to support a 1 mm tonne potash operation for at least 15 yrs. While a lot more work still needs to be done, 555mm tonnes of kainitite suggests AAA could produce SOP. A BFS on MOP economics + SOP Scoping Study are expected within 6-9months; positive results could provide the next up-legs for AAA shares. Look for Allana to make acquisitions in the near future as they prove the resource is continuous across the basin- one target to the north would be FED.
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The BFS is due 6-9 months according to this coverage, the other potash stock that went ballistic took 7 months for the feasibility study, so this time frame looks correct.
