Explore small cap ideas before they hit the headlines.
Explore small cap ideas before they hit the headlines.
ISIG - thanks for thoughts hweb. Definitely agree that the fundamentals are a mess. I'm somewhat betting on the POPS revenue bumping up a bit from Q4 to Q1 before expiration of contract in April. Like you said though, they may not post a profit even with PPP. Quite pathetic.
ISIG - bought some of this crap too at 5.79. 3rd lowest market cap on major indexes. They report this week or next. PPP loan forgiveness of ~$1M this Q. $4 cash/share. Insider just bought $175K worth, so maybe he knows something. I figure the floor is $5. All my opinion only.
AWX - joined you here at 3.57 today. Like the PPP loan forgiveness heading into next week's earnings and backdrop of low floats popping
OBGRF - gil, you have any opinions on this one? Own some at 0.94. Liquidity is garbage, so caution is warranted. Comparable to GDLLF. Also similar to FRACF, but without the water business (the water business really boosted FRACF from what I recall from looking at the previous quarters, so could be a poor comparison).
VTSI - took half off the table here at 6.03
FRD - nice trades guys, I was trying to get even more trading shares last week, but missed out, so didn't sell any today and don't plan to until quite a bit higher.
For context, in their biggest quarter of the last decade, their average price realized per ton was $853/ton...
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=12918300&guid=pumnUFmjSlh193h
As hweb said, current prices are $1500/ton...I could be wrong, but if they wanted to they could currently hedge a ton of 2021 and 2022 production at >$1000/ton:
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/hrc-steel_quotes_globex.html
Hard for me to want to sell any as a result.
JVA - started small position at 4.81. Wanted to own a coffee play, based on the strength in prices.
I have a gut feeling that coffee prices might run here: https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=KC&p=w1
Most other commodities have blown up, so why not coffee...
Other than that, the company's quarters are a mess to untangle (hedging gains, etc., as others have pointed out here). There's also the CBD infused stuff, which I guess is a positive? But who knows. All my opinion.
TCOR - tried to buy on day you shared, but not available at my broker. Thanks for sharing!
VTSI - interview here:
VTSI - CEO did an interview this past Sunday.
$VTSI Insightful interview with the CEO of @VirtraSystems organized in coordination with @gatewayir tonight.
— StoryTrading (@StoryTrading) April 19, 2021
The video recording will be released next week. Follow us to be notified first. https://t.co/m6T2vLUmuD
RFP/WFSTF - lumber prices...no idea what to think. Should have realized that RFP would be favored since it trades on NYSE.
Have owned WFSTF since early Feb and still think it looks cheap on a relative basis.
Have owned TGAFF (Taiga Building Products)since August of last year. It's not a direct play, but they definitely benefit. Considering adding more, since it's cheaper than alternatives on a relative basis.
Then own GDL.TO (Goodfellow) since early Feb too. Sadly only traded in Canada. Smaller version of TGAFF.
JCTCF - good call hweb, quarter was a nothing burger. Revenues were solid, but bottom line was worse than I anticipated. They provided some interesting comments on potential rising costs...wonder how widespread this effect will be on a number of microcaps.
Crypto - to me, it is a "lock the float" type pump. However, instead of a shady company eventually printing a pile of shares and dumping them on the public, there actually is a limited amount of supply of cryptocurrency. Furthermore, crypto represents a way for criminals to move money around - providing a further key purpose.
As a consequence, I have no idea where this ends. The market capitalization of the cryptocurrencies may reach a point where it becomes a systemic risk, thus causing the government to intervene. Sadly, I would not be surprised if it is too late at that point...
JCTCF - wish they would rename the company to "Lucky Dog Products" or something that adequately captures that they mostly sell pet stuff. Granted, the company has performed very well over the years (not the usual microcap bs), even if liquidity sucks.
Expecting earnings today after the close. They have a favorable comp. Added a few shares at 10.61 to the larger long-term position that I have. Not expecting much, but valuation wise it's one of the few I have confidence in.
Just my opinion.
VTSI - added more at 4.71 on the gap fill
FRD - yes, definitely agree with you and researcher59 on this.
I guess here's my rough thinking:
I think they can average close to $800/ton for Q4 (based on historical quarters near end of 2017 and 2018). With the upgrades finished in March, I'm assuming cash flow and the cash on balance sheet get a boost in Q1. Presumably, if they are still hedging, they may then lock in some of these $800/ton+ prices, at which point they are printing money for the rest of 2021.
Maybe I'm missing something. I get that the ramp up in $/ton in Q4 may be weaker than expected, but it would have been some pretty egregious hedging to completely faceplant in 2021.
FRD - the way this trades you'd think an accounting error is imminent...
Steel coil futures remain strong, some contracts are hitting new highs several months out.
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/hrc-steel_quotes_globex.html
VTSI - had bids waiting closer to the gap. Looks like it may not get there, so re-bought some at 5.05 earlier.
VTSI - bailed out of some more at 9.14. just have a <0.5% position remaining.
VTSI - brief notes from CC transcript:
-GM% should typically be around 60% (so this quarter was high)
-took write-down on Eatertainment crap b/c of pandemic (have not looked into how much this asset is stated to be worth on balance sheet)
-bookings were strong in Q4 and indicated they couldn't disclose some of the sales (hence potentially explaining lack of PRs in Q4 2020 and Q1 2021)
-and by far the most hilarious: the CEO basically indicated (at least from my perspective) that he did not know what was driving demand LOL
I continue to ride this thing up and down with my small position. Probably a horrible idea, but who knows, looks like today's volume will equal all of the volume ever in the stock.
VTSI - lol, missed selling in the teens early this morning, but sold some at 8 like you. Still have a small position. Just ridiculous.
VTSI - missed the pullback down to 5 again, nice job getting that.
Agree that the financials are not straightforward. Will have to look into it further when I get a chance.
I had to lol at the That's Entertainment Corp. thing. I can't even remember what sideshow they got involved in with that.
VTSI - yeah surprisingly good, thought that would've included PPP loan forgiveness, but it didn't. Backlog still strong too.
I bought more at 5 AH and dumped those at 6.09. Still holding those that I bought at 4.73.
VTSI - any thoughts heading into earnings?
I missed the dip last week, but bought back some @ 4.73 today that I had sold higher on that larger run-up in Feb.
Management sometimes faceplants based on my past experiences a few years ago, so who could be a fail.
All IMO only.
To add to this, I've followed a football betting/analysis website for a while called Walterfootball.com (warning: website layout is awful).
Earlier this year, the guy started posting stock picks. These picks (mainly GME) went swimmingly at first, but I think it's helpful to see what's currently happening:
https://walterfootball.com/stocks.php
From what I can tell, folks out there continue to pile into companies with unrealistic valuations. This combined with the general weakness in FANG stocks (they make up like 20% of the market cap of the indices) could drag things down a bit further.
Granted, I'm not immune from the hype (I've been nuked on LEAF so far lol)
To be clear, I'm not expecting a nuclear meltdown like Wade...
LEAF - absolute gamble and will probably lose my ass, but bought a very tiny position on NFT hype, etc. Their platforms would seem to be pretty suitable for this crap. Disclaimer: I barely understand NFT and all my opinion...
ODT/IBB - noticing a lot of biotech stuff getting slammed. No skin in the game, but watching ASMB (lots of cash) and RPTX (lowest market cap CRISPR stock). Even so, prices really aren't that attractive yet.
FRD - Own too much of this, but bought more. Barely missed my limit order yesterday and the day before, so just gave up and bought more today.
Like you said, waiting until June for this quarters is the biggest drawback.
HIL - thanks to all those who brought this to the board several months ago (can't remember if it was Mermelstein? - apologies if I'm mistaken)
Out this morning. Couldn't justify holding it at 10-12x projected 2021 EBITDA (even if they are sandbagging the guidance). Backlog flat over last quarter. Will look for an opportunity to re-enter.
AHCCF/AHC.TO - solid earnings yesterday, but hand sanitizer sales have juiced earnings. Clearly not sustainable, however, I think the balance sheet/lack of institutional ownership provides a bit of upside here. Took a small position this morning.
All my opinion only.
ESP - pretty significant news today:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/espey-suspends-dividend-210500331.html
This was a pretty exceptional event, given that ESP hasn't ever cut the dividend from what I can tell (even during 2008/2009 meltdown).
I don't own any ESP, but was expecting a turnaround. I think the language in that release is important for many microcap stocks, especially those with any aerospace exposure (e.g. SVT) and, as Nelson has previously pointed out, those facing an electronic component shortage (KTCC, SGMA come to mind).
SYNL - as expected, crappy quarter, but my takeaway from the CC was that the CEO/exec team is sandbagging. CEO said demand was "very robust"...but dodged all questions pertaining to exact profitability...all my opinion
SYNL - Steel/metals play. I'm really asking for it here b/c it's close to being a complete dumpster fire, but the rest of the sector is doing well and insider buying/market outlook may be enough to propel it higher.
I don't expect much at all from earnings tomorrow.
All is my opinion only.
GVP - traded it recently during the mania a couple weeks back. Looked into it further over the weekend and it's got some of the better fundamentals of all the small market cap crap.
They also have an obscenely large 10 million PPP loan, which could be forgiven and juice earnings...
FRD - certainly a solid quarter. I was surprised that they mentioned the tubular segment was even doing well in December. Given coil steel prices so far in Jan/Feb, it seems that Q4 EPS close to $1 isn't out of the realm of possibility if prices hold up?
https://ca.investing.com/commodities/us-steel-coil-futures-advanced-chart
Was also relieved that they didn't mention the Texas weather/outages as an issue for their operations (as a result, I'm assuming impact was small)
FRD - all the other steel crap is flying today (ZEUS, USAP, TMST, etc.) and FRD's NT-10Q indicates that they will get the results filed/released today, so figured why not add some more.
Just my opinion, could be wrong.
KIDZ.V - owe you a drink if you are ever in Edmonton
Holding a core position, but flipped trading shares from 0.68 to 0.90 this morning; surprised I was able to buy at 0.68 this morning.
I would pass along some other Canadian small caps, but as you say they've been on a tear...Nevertheless, I like GDL.TO quite a bit into earnings this week but just my opinion and could be wrong.
CTHR - thanks for heads up hweb, this looks like the video here (or part of the pump):
CTHR - I'm feeling overconfident and will probably pay the price by holding through earnings. Part of my overconfidence comes from the surge in search traffic for moissanite (highest ever):
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=%2Fm%2F03bw_4z&geo=US
Company has a beautiful history of disappointments, so won't be surprised if the quarter's a letdown...wish other companies doing moissanite were public
WSTG - it's on the daily, rather than weekly that you show:
https://schrts.co/zstvHykp