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The case came up during my last convo with DSNY's CFO.
See here: http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/2009/10/conversation-with-cfo-of-destiny-media.html
I don't currently have a position in the stock, but if I did, I wouldn't be too worried about this litigation. There may be new developments I am unaware of though.
My limit order was at the same price.
We were both a little too greedy.
Just woke up from a nap -- pleasantly surprised to see this close over $2. Definitely mostly strong hands here, despite the weak earnings number and lack of guidance so far.
Don't stop poking, my limit order hasn't filled yet.
Can't complain.
Still in the black AYSI, despite the drop today. Some nice trades the last few months as well, such as
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=44746156
and
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=44153110
and
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=43544455
Etc.
Just sent an e-mail to Gene noting the three additional workers mentioned in the 10-K and asking him if they still planned on building two new mills in 2010.
Saw that, but...
Are they still building two more mills in 2010? Because if so, you'd think they'd need more than three additional manufacturing workers to run them, no?
A press release would be nice.
Also, it would be nice if they broke down the margins for Q4. My guess is that the narrower margins were mainly from aggressive price cutting in the first half of the year, and that those margins started to recover once everything started picking up again.
No, would've been nice if they did though.
If we didn't have that $900k hit (again, not sure how much of it was in Q4) for testing & tuning, could have bee ~7 cents in earnings for the Q. That's behind us now, but I wonder if we should anticipate similar testing and tuning hits on new mills built in 2010.
Just noted the same thing on my blog:
http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/2009/12/alloy-steels-10-k.html
10-K out
Someone might want to check my math, as I've been running without sleep for a while, but I get 1.86 cents in earnings for Q4. If that's right, I think we'll be in for a drop below $2 today.
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1127454/000114036109030103/form10k.htm
I have no idea.
I don't have any position in it now, long or short. If it starts making new highs again, I may buy some more out-of-the-money GLD puts though.
Thanks.
Sold the rest of my GLD puts today
For a ~430% gain: http://bit.ly/6WrFdY
I don't have any special insight on the
Timing of the filing, but I have no reason to think the company will file late.
I don't know anything about NNLX, but feel free to e-mail me the elevator pitch on it. You can find one of my e-mail addresses listed on my blog: http://www.thehackensack.blogspot.com/
Hopefully, a lot.
China's economy is the one to watch
How much Aussie iron ore goes to the domestic market?
Looks like the RBA pulled the trigger a little too early on rate increases though.
An update:
Sold half of those puts for a ~390% gain yesterday. Playing with the house's money now: http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/2009/12/playing-with-houses-money.html
Cap,
im not sure y 7c is needed to sustain stock
north of 220
We'll see. So far, the average of my little poll seems to be about 5.6 cents. I don't think anyone is going to care much about sequential revenue increases in Q4 though, given the weak comps.
I still think the biggest risk here is the macro picture with China, as I've mentioned in a few recent posts (e.g., this one: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=44133235 ). The more promising possibility WRT China is this, IMO: ( http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/2009/09/chinas-new-self-propelled-economy.html ).
Also, I disagree with you about the merits of Mongolia. I agree that it looks dead at this point, but I disagree that it was a bad idea. Mongolia is rich in natural resources and has a big need for new infrastructure. Plus (of course), it borders China.
Just to clarify:
.07 wasn't my EPS estimate for Q4. I haven't made one. It was my gut estimate of what the EPS number will need to be to support the current stock price; i.e., my guess at what consensus expectations are. That was my question.
That said, your 2010 estimate of 35-50 cents in EPS is inline with my low-end estimate of 40 cents, assuming no major negative exogenous event (e.g., Chinese demand falling off a cliff -- which I wouldn't entirely rule out.).
My gut was .07 but
A lot will depend on the management's discussion & analysis, IMO. If there are hard dates mentioned for the opening of the other two mills, or a JV announced, etc., than the stock could stay here or go higher on a lower Q4 number.
Minimum earnings number to support stock price?
We all understand that the company didn't start operating both mills at full capacity until part-way through the quarter, and we all are aware of the potential upside of an additional two mills (plus the Indonesia expansion). And further, some of us will be as interested in the margins for Arcoplate as in the earnings number.
All that said, some of our expectations are already baked into the cake here, so what do you think earnings need to be to support the stock price over $2.20?
Up 350% so far on my GLD puts
The Jan 10s with the 108 strike: http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/2009/12/update-on-that-bet-against-gold.html
Capacity is great, but capacity utilization
Is another issue. That was the concern the FT raised in the link I included in this comment: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=44133235
If Chinese demand for steel, etc. doesn't grow fast enough to utilize all that capacity, that will be a problem.
Same here. On the bid again now.
This stock is driven by fundamentals
Not technicals. This is up 1000% from the bottom. A chartist would have dumped it already. Those of us holding are holding because of our expectations of future earnings (fundamentals).
BTW, picked up a few more shares at $2.27 today.
Scottrade should do the same.
Maybe they'll start doing that. No worries though.
Sold this at .45 yesterday
After buying more at .305 a couple of weeks ago. Details: http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/2009/12/out-of-destiny.html
Would have been nice if they said something
About that.
&^%$ing Scottrade!
Apparently a "Good till canceled" order there just means "good for the next two months". My GTC order had expired Monday. Just put another small one in.
My order is closer to $2.30 than $2.20, so maybe I'll get it today. We'll see.
It doesn't drift that low.
I've had a limit buy order open in the $2.20s for about a month.
One scary thought
From the FT ( http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a75ade98-dd14-11de-ad60-00144feabdc0.html ) The cost of China’s excess capacity:
The scale of the excess capacity is breathtaking. At the end of 2008, China’s steel capacity was 660m tons against demand of 470m tons. This difference is much the same as the European Union’s total output. Yet, notes the report, “there are currently 58m tonnes of new capacity under construction in China”.
Given the relatively modest cost of the
Second mill, and the likelihood that construction costs are cheaper in lower-wage Indonesia -- combined with the cash AYSI should be generating now -- shouldn't they have enough cash to finance this organically?
The annual report should shed light,
But if the revenues are as strong as we all believe, they may be able to finance the expansion organically from those.
Whatever questions the 10-k doesn't answer, I'll be happy to resubmit to the company. It's probably a more efficient use of their time to answer our remaining questions after the release than a huge list of our questions before.
I suspected so too.
Looks like we were both right.
Reach out to me via e-mail (not PM) when you have a chance.
Thanks,
Dave
No problem, you're welcome.
Covered this at $10.05 earlier today.
More details here: http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/2009/11/covered-short-of-david-einhorn-stock.html
Thanks, man. For more ideas like that one, you may want to check my new site. One of the mods here has an issue with me, so I won't post the link to the new site here. But you can find it easily enough if you follow the link back to my blog in my earlier post.
I'm out in the country right now
at a place that abuts a state forest. Hunting season is in full force today. Kept hearing rifle shots.