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Oyu Tolgoi, Phase 2: http://www.brecorder.com/business-a-finance/industries-a-sectors/242698-mongolia-and-rio-tinto-sign-oyu-tolgoi-deal.html?hootPostID=8a0760b7a5e391c74f003c62a08879db
Maybe a tailwind for AYSI.
NP Nat, and thanks for the news about BIS.
Now that Santos's article is public, I'm surprised it was posted initially as a Pro article. It's just basically a recap of the earnings, plus his reiterated concern about the macro environment.
In case anyone's interested,
I used Storify so you can look at those backtest results at one link: https://storify.com/dpinsen/a-portfolio-armor-backtest
New Seeking Alpha Pro article on AYSI
I hadn't looked at the stock on Friday until I saw this tweet by the CEO of Seeking Alpha:
Alloy Steel: Q2 FY2015 Earnings http://t.co/fvePcZWK46
— David Jackson (@davidjaxon) May 16, 2015
1/ I'm running a @PortfolioArmor investment strategy backrest from 1/2/2003 to 4/30/2014, starting w/ $40k. pic.twitter.com/TiJfmWILr1
— David Pinsen (@dpinsen) May 16, 2015
Something I may flesh out in an SA article, but this is a problem in general with fundamental analysis. It's like being a private investigator doing surveillance on someone you only get a glimpse of 4 times per year. No one knows what the next Q holds.
Wouldn't expect much tax selling this year
Since the stock is up big from the beginning of the year. Maybe a few latecomers who bought at this year's highs?
They also tweeted that from their @arcoplate account.
Incidentally, recently some folks were sharing other nano-cap names here. Here's one for you guys, WIRX. Not a great business, but trading for 1/2 its working capital. Maybe it will attract the attention of a penny ante activist at some point.
OK, thanks for catching me up.
Sent him an f/u email yesterday. He said AYSI was way too small for his fund, so it wasn't him. So I have no idea who's buying this at volume, though it seems to be on the radar screen of more value investors after a couple of non-me Seeking Alpha contributors wrote about it. E.g., http://www.barelkarsan.com/2014/06/alloy-steel-plenty-of-reason-for-being.html
What's the latest on JBII, in a nutshell?
Haven't checked this board in a few months.
I emailed an Aussie hedgie about this last week. I wonder if he has started to take some nibbles.
Some potentially positive news out of WA:
Gina Rinehart secures $7.9b in funding for Roy Hill project in WA's Pilbara region... http://t.co/Kwxd1fakRa
— WAtoday (@WAtoday) March 20, 2014
NP, looks like your comment was posted.
Because they'd published articles of mine on it before, and the head editor I emailed agreed that a follow up would make sense, provided they added their disclaimer about penny stocks.
62.
Now it's up to 400-something views.
NP.
Full disclosure: Seeking Alpha pays me per click for these articles, so I made 62 cents on this article so far. :)
Every article submission needs to be approved by one of their editors, and they usually don't publish articles about stocks trading for less than $1. They published this one though: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2032521-alloy-steel-releases-q1-earnings
That is encouraging.
I submitted an article update on this to Seeking Alpha. We'll see if they publish it.
I mentioned a few ideas before
But who knows. FWIW, Seeking Alpha published my update article on AYSI: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1966001-alloy-steel-shares-spike-80-percent-thursday-but-still-have-a-bargain-basement-valuation?
You should still be angry...
...at this company's disregard for outside shareholders, its awful investor relations and shareholder communications, its inexplicable corporate governance (summarily hiring and firing outside executives and board members with no explanation), and its apparent self-dealing (paying for the grand kid's racing career in the US, and whatever nephews run the Kostecki Cafe, etc.). Don't act like neglected, starving dogs who finally got a few table scraps.
It takes years of a special kind of douchebaggery for a business posting spectacular operating results to trade at such an abysmal multiple.
The problem is that the share price is an after thought for the Kostecki clan. Whether it's at .20 or .80, Sport still gets his American racing career sponsored, Gene still gets his royalties, Gene Jr. still collects a salary, etc. If they're going to continue to run the company this way, the stock price will drift back down to the .40s by this time next year. They should make a tender offer for the outside shares at $2 or $3 and just run it as a family business. We should discuss ways to encourage them to do so.
Suggestions For Seeking Alpha Article
I'm planning to submit a follow up article on AYSI, now that we finally have year-end numbers. I plan to mention those as well as the issues with shareholder communications. If there are any key points you'd like me to include, please leave them as replies to this post.
Thanks. I will post a separate comment where I'll rant shortly.
Yeah, no chance of a 10x P/E with annual-only reporting.
(Unless Gene decides to buy out minority shareholders at 10x).
So .18?
At an AYSI-type 3 P/E, that could take this to what, .54?
He's an accountant.
It's not uncommon for small companies to have part-time CFOs whose main business is an outside accounting practice. That might have been the case with him.
Developing
Hard to buy is an understatement.
I guess the only reason to buy now is if you think the annual numbers will be good. But even if they are, then what? If the company isn't going to report quarterly, the stock will inevitably slide down on 12 months of no news.
Another thing:
It's already a public company. If Gene doesn't want any outside shareholders, if he just wants it to be a family business, let him make a tender offer for our shares at a fair valuation and we can all move on. But if he is going to screw us over, no sense taking it laying down.
In addition to contacting regulatory agencies about this, we could also contact our local Congressmen, and business media here and in WA. I know a couple of business reporters who might be interested in writing about this. I could also submit a follow-up article to Seeking Alpha myself. If Gene wants to do business in the United States and have his grandson have a racing career here, he shouldn't be screwing over US shareholders.
I agree that the tech has potential
But AYSI doesn't own the tech, it licenses it from Gene, right? It does have other assets of value though, such as the supply contract with BHP and other distribution agreements, as well as its production facilities, etc.
If only Gene didn't own the majority of the company's shares, it might attract a nano-cap activist investor.
There may be other avenues by which we can influence AYSI management to act in a manner more considerate of minority shareholders though.
As a first step, perhaps we should select someone to represent us minority shareholders, agree on a set of reasonable requests WRT reporting, etc., and contact the company with them. If they ignore or reject those, we can look into a range of other possible actions (e.g., contacting regulatory agencies here and in the Australia, retaining a securities attorney to consider legal action, contacting the company's corporate clients, etc.).
I don't know.
I remember picking up a few shares at .23 in early 2009, when it still looked like the world economy was going off a cliff.
Sure.
You can use this one: impossibledistances@yahoo.com
Unhelpful.
As I said, there's plenty of legitimate complaints about corporate governance and shareholder communications for shareholders to be pissed about without adding spurious accusations.
The awful corporate governance is bad enough
No need to make up other stuff. Ernst & Young recognized Gene as an outstanding entrepreneur, for good reason. If his wear plates were crap he wouldn't have gotten a 5-year supply deal BHP, and especially not another 5 year deal after that.
If this were a crap business, I wouldn't be disappointed by the lousy corporate governance since I wouldn't have invested in the first place.
Anyone buying here?
If so, why?
The only reason this stock isn't down more today is because we kind of knew this was a possibility. Interesting that the company mentioned its obligations under Delaware law in its PR. I wonder if they read this board.
Nevertheless, just because they say they are going to comply with the law doesn't mean they will without being compelled to do so. I really wouldn't put anything past management at this point.
It's really sad. Gene is an impressive entrepreneur and inventor, who built a successful business. Why not treat shareholders equitably?
They haven't been sued because
No shareholders have sued them, not because corporate law does or doesn't make sense. Law is subject to interpretation and dispute over matters of fact and law, which is what happens during lawsuits.
Even if AYSI doesn't want to remain a public company, being sued by its shareholders wouldn't help it in other aspects of its business (trying to raise private financing, negotiating new deals, etc.).
If management doesn't want the hassle of small shareholders, why not make a tender offer for the rest of the outstanding shares?
Alloy Steel is a Delaware Corporation
With offices in the US and the desire to increase its business here. Even if it's not listed, it has some obligations to its shareholders under Delaware law.
When the company went dark a few years ago, I contacted a few folks from here privately about retaining a securities attorney to compel the company to report its earnings, but dropped that after the company reported record numbers. The attorney wanted a $5k retainer for that.
Hopefully it won't come to that, but if the company decides to stop reporting, that is an option we have, to find out exactly what it's obligated to do under Delaware law and compel it to do so.
Back in this at 12.7 cents.
Bought a few shares on Thursday.
Good points. Also worth noting
that the company's tech can be used for construction/excavation, etc., too, in addition to mining.
Get me up to speed.
Owned NNLX a couple of years ago, and have been keeping an eye on the ticker. What's going on now? The tech made sense when I read about it last. Is the company any closer to making a profit? Has management been diluting shareholders or doing any other funny business?
What's the deal?
My theory: Elon Musk is to blame.
Think about it: he's selling expensive electric cars. Once the world realizes that we can have a virtually unlimited, cheap source of oil by converting plastic junk using JBII's proprietary process, the jig is up. Gas prices will plummet, and no one is going to want an electric car.
WA offers a royalty rebate for magnetite miners: http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wa-magnetite-miners-get-royalty-rebate-20130409-2hive.html